概率期望dp

A - Collecting Bugs

Ivan is fond of collecting. Unlike other people who collect post stamps, coins or other material stuff, he collects software bugs. When Ivan gets a new program, he classifies all possible bugs into n categories. Each day he discovers exactly one bug in the program and adds information about it and its category into a spreadsheet. When he finds bugs in all bug categories, he calls the program disgusting, publishes this spreadsheet on his home page, and forgets completely about the program.
Two companies, Macrosoft and Microhard are in tight competition. Microhard wants to decrease sales of one Macrosoft program. They hire Ivan to prove that the program in question is disgusting. However, Ivan has a complicated problem. This new program has s subcomponents, and finding bugs of all types in each subcomponent would take too long before the target could be reached. So Ivan and Microhard agreed to use a simpler criteria --- Ivan should find at least one bug in each subsystem and at least one bug of each category.
Macrosoft knows about these plans and it wants to estimate the time that is required for Ivan to call its program disgusting. It's important because the company releases a new version soon, so it can correct its plans and release it quicker. Nobody would be interested in Ivan's opinion about the reliability of the obsolete version.
A bug found in the program can be of any category with equal probability. Similarly, the bug can be found in any given subsystem with equal probability. Any particular bug cannot belong to two different categories or happen simultaneously in two different subsystems. The number of bugs in the program is almost infinite, so the probability of finding a new bug of some category in some subsystem does not reduce after finding any number of bugs of that category in that subsystem.
Find an average time (in days of Ivan's work) required to name the program disgusting.

Input

Input file contains two integer numbers, n and s (0 < n, s <= 1 000).

Output

Output the expectation of the Ivan's working days needed to call the program disgusting, accurate to 4 digits after the decimal point.

Sample Input

1 2

Sample Output

3.0000

题意与解析：

dp求期望的题。

题意：一个软件有s个子系统，会产生n种bug。 某人一天发现一个bug，这个bug属于某种bug，发生在某个子系统中。 求找到所有的n种bug，且每个子系统都找到bug，这样所要的天数的期望。

需要注意的是：bug的数量是无穷大的，所以发现一个bug， 出现在某个子系统的概率是1/s，属于某种类型的概率是1/n。

解法： dp[i][j]表示已经找到i种bug，并存在于j个子系统中，要达到目标状态的天数的期望。 显然，dp[n][s]=0，因为已经达到目标了。而dp[0][0]就是我们要求的答案。

dp[i][j]状态可以转化成以下四种：

dp[i][j] 发现一个bug属于已经找到的i种bug和j个子系统中 ;

dp[i+1][j] 发现一个bug属于新的一种bug，但属于已经找到的j种子系统 ;

dp[i][j+1] 发现一个bug属于已经找到的i种bug，但属于新的子系统 ;

dp[i+1][j+1]发现一个bug属于新的一种bug和新的一个子系统.

以上四种的概率分别为：

p1 = i*j / (n*s)

p2 = (n-i)*j / (n*s)

p3 = i*(s-j) / (n*s)

p4 = (n-i)*(s-j) / (n*s)

又有：期望可以分解成多个子期望的加权和，权为子期望发生的概率，

即 E(aA+bB+...) = aE(A) + bE(B) +...

所以： dp[i,j] = p1*dp[i,j] + p2*dp[i+1,j] + p3*dp[i,j+1] + p4*dp[i+1,j+1] + 1;

整理得： dp[i,j] = ( 1 + p2*dp[i+1,j] + p3*dp[i,j+1] + p4*dp[i+1,j+1] )/( 1-p1 )

                        = ( n*s + (n-i)*j*dp[i+1,j] + i*(s-j)*dp[i,j+1] + (n-i)*(s-j)*dp[i+1,j+1] )/( n*s - i*j )

#include<stdio.h>
#include<string.h>
#include<iostream>
#include<map>
#include<math.h>
#include<vector>
#include<queue>
#include<stack>
#include<string>
#include<algorithm>
using namespace std;
#define ll long long
double dp[1020][1020];
int n,s;
int main()
{
    while(~scanf("%d %d",&n,&s))
    {
        memset(dp,0,sizeof(dp));
        for(int i=n; i>=0; i--)
            for(int j=s; j>=0; j--)
            {
                if(n==i&&j==s)
                    continue;
                dp[i][j]=(n*s+i*(s-j)*dp[i][j+1]+(n-i)*j*dp[i+1][j]+(n-i)*(s-j)*dp[i+1][j+1])/(n*s-i*j);
            }
        printf("%.4lf\n",dp[0][0]);
    }
    return 0;
}

B - LOOPS

Akemi Homura is a Mahou Shoujo (Puella Magi/Magical Girl).
Homura wants to help her friend Madoka save the world. But because of the plot of the Boss Incubator, she is trapped in a labyrinth called LOOPS.

The planform of the LOOPS is a rectangle of R*C grids. There is a portal in each grid except the exit grid. It costs Homura 2 magic power to use a portal once. The portal in a grid G(r, c) will send Homura to the grid below G (grid(r+1, c)), the grid on the right of G (grid(r, c+1)), or even G itself at respective probability (How evil the Boss Incubator is)!
At the beginning Homura is in the top left corner of the LOOPS ((1, 1)), and the exit of the labyrinth is in the bottom right corner ((R, C)). Given the probability of transmissions of each portal, your task is help poor Homura calculate the EXPECT magic power she need to escape from the LOOPS.

Input

The first line contains two integers R and C (2 <= R, C <= 1000).
The following R lines, each contains C*3 real numbers, at 2 decimal places. Every three numbers make a group. The first, second and third number of the cth group of line r represent the probability of transportation to grid (r, c), grid (r, c+1), grid (r+1, c) of the portal in grid (r, c) respectively. Two groups of numbers are separated by 4 spaces.
It is ensured that the sum of three numbers in each group is 1, and the second numbers of the rightmost groups are 0 (as there are no grids on the right of them) while the third numbers of the downmost groups are 0 (as there are no grids below them).
You may ignore the last three numbers of the input data. They are printed just for looking neat.

The answer is ensured no greater than 1000000.
Terminal at EOF

 

Output

A real number at 3 decimal places (round to), representing the expect magic power Homura need to escape from the LOOPS.
 

Sample Input

2 2
0.00 0.50 0.50    0.50 0.00 0.50
0.50 0.50 0.00    1.00 0.00 0.00

Sample Output

6.000

题意与解析：迷宫是一个R*C的布局，每个格子中给出停留在原地，往右走一个，往下走一格的概率，起点在(1,1)，终点在(R,C)，每走一格消耗两点能量，求出最后所需要的能量期望

期望DP，dp[i][j]记录从i,j出发到终点所需期望，map[i][j][k]，记录每格三种状况的概率，按照数学期望公式去计算即可

#include<cstdio>
#include<cstring>
#include<iostream>
#include<map>
#include<math.h>
#include<vector>
#include<queue>
#include<stack>
#include<string>
#include<algorithm>
using namespace std;
#define ll long long
#define M(x,y) memset(x,y,sizeof(x))
double dp[1020][1020],map[1020][1020][5];
int r,c;
int main()
{
    while(scanf("%d %d",&r,&c)!=EOF)
    {
        M(dp,0);
        for(int i=1; i<=r; i++)
            for(int j=1; j<=c; j++)
                for(int k=0; k<3; k++)
                    scanf("%lf",&map[i][j][k]);
        for(int i=r; i>0; i--)
            for(int j=c; j>0; j--)
            {
                if(i==r&&j==c)
                    continue;
                if(fabs(map[i][j][0]-1)<1e-7)//当停留在原地的概率为1时显然所求期望为零所以跳过
                    continue;
                dp[i][j]=(dp[i][j+1]*map[i][j][1]+dp[i+1][j]*map[i][j][2]+2)/(1-map[i][j][0]);//求期望公式  后面+2是因为每走一步要消耗为2的能量。
            }
        printf("%.3lf\n",dp[1][1]);
    }
    return 0;
}

C - Aeroplane chess

Hzz loves aeroplane chess very much. The chess map contains N+1 grids labeled from 0 to N. Hzz starts at grid 0. For each step he throws a dice(a dice have six faces with equal probability to face up and the numbers on the faces are 1,2,3,4,5,6). When Hzz is at grid i and the dice number is x, he will moves to grid i+x. Hzz finishes the game when i+x is equal to or greater than N.

There are also M flight lines on the chess map. The i-th flight line can help Hzz fly from grid Xi to Yi (0<Xi<Yi<=N) without throwing the dice. If there is another flight line from Yi, Hzz can take the flight line continuously. It is granted that there is no two or more flight lines start from the same grid.

Please help Hzz calculate the expected dice throwing times to finish the game.

Input

There are multiple test cases.
Each test case contains several lines.
The first line contains two integers N(1≤N≤100000) and M(0≤M≤1000).
Then M lines follow, each line contains two integers Xi,Yi(1≤Xi<Yi≤N).  
The input end with N=0, M=0.

Output

For each test case in the input, you should output a line indicating the expected dice throwing times. Output should be rounded to 4 digits after decimal point.

Sample Input

2 0
8 3
2 4
4 5
7 8
0 0

Sample Output

1.1667
2.3441

题意与解析：

一种飞行棋，起点为 0 ，掷一次骰子，可以走有 1-6 步，飞到 >= n 就赢了，有 m 个可以直接飞的点，n,m 都为 0 输入结束 ，问需要掷骰子的次数期望

就是利用概率dp，因为每一次的概率都是相同的，这里主要是运用了概率dp和直接飞的点

#include<stdio.h>
#include<string.h>
#include<iostream>
#include<map>
#include<math.h>
#include<vector>
#include<queue>
#include<stack>
#include<string>
#include<algorithm>
using namespace std;
#define ll long long
#define M(x,y) memset(x,y,sizeof(x))
int n,m;
int a[100200];
double dp[100200];
int main()
{
    while(scanf("%d %d",&n,&m))
    {
        if(n==0&&m==0)
            break;
        M(a,0);M(dp,0);
        while(m--)
        {
            int x,y;
            scanf("%d %d",&x,&y);
            a[x]=y;
        }
        for(int i=n-1;i>=0;i--)
        {
            if(a[i])
                dp[i]=dp[a[i]];//可直接飞到的点
            else
            {
                for(int j=1;j<=6;j++)
                    dp[i]+=dp[i+j]/6.0;//概率期望的计算
                dp[i]+=1.0;
                if(i==n)
                    dp[i]=0.0;
            }
        }
        printf("%.4f\n",dp[0]);
    }
    return 0;
}