对流耦合的热带波动 | MJO

对流耦合的热带波动 | MJO

特征：

• 缓慢的东传速度(5~8 m/s)
• 大尺度的对流包络(~$10^3$ km)
• 多尺度对流系统
• 多级对流结构（浅对流、深对流、层云…）

CISK (Conditional Instability of the Second Kind) theory

• Jule Gregory Charney (January 1, 1917 – June 16, 1981)

主要观点

热带大气的垂直热力结构显然更有利于小尺度积云对流，而不利于热带气旋尺度的对流环流，为什么气旋会在这种条件不稳定的热带大气中形成？有人提出，气旋是通过一种次级不稳定性发展起来的，在这种次级不稳定性中，现有的积云对流在低层水平辐合区增强，而在低层辐散区减弱。因此，积云和气旋尺度的运动应被视为合作而非竞争–积云为气旋提供潜热能量，而气旋则以水汽的形式为积云提供燃料。

细节阐述

从观测数据中发现，台风或者飓风是从先前存在的热带低压扰动发展而来的。但是热带低气压放大的原因是什么？在当时并不清楚，此研究说明了：表面摩擦的辐合会导致一个小振幅、对称的低压扰动在一个不稳定的环境下是如何自发放大的。在这里，为了说明问题，做出假设：假设扰动振幅是无限小的，为了来进行扰动分析。

主要想要强调两点：

• 表面摩擦作为能量来源
• 单个积云细胞体和大尺度运动的协同作用

a) Instability of the tropical depression.

The depression and cumulus convection as cooperative phenomena. In analogy with the theory of extratropical cyclones, it is tempting to ascribe the formation of the hurricane to some form of hydrodynamic instability, and in fact a number of such mechanisms have been proposed. The growth of disturbances has been variously attributed to the instability of temperature discontinuities (frontal instability), of horizontal temperature gradients (baro- clinic instability), of radially decreasing angular mo- mentum along isentropic surfaces in a circular vortex (rotational instability), or of horizontal shear with an extremum in the absolute vorticity profile (Rayleigh instability). The fourth may very well be responsible for the cold-core easterly wave but almost certainly not for the hurricane. In the opinion of the writers no good evidence has been cited to indicate that the other in- stabilities exist, or, if they did, that they would give rise to the observed motions. There is, however, a fifth kind of instability that undoubtedly does exist. It is the gravitational instability associated with a decrease in the entropy of saturated air with height (conditional instability). Is it possible, then, that the tropical dis- turbance is simply a large-scale convective overturning? This is unlikely, for, while such large-scale motions are theoretically possible, J. Bjerknes (1938) and E. Höiland (1939) have shown that conditional instability favors the smallest possible scale of cumulus convection. In- deed, were it not for friction and entrainment of dry air, the preferred convection cell would have an infinitely narrow ascending branch. And even when the motion is absolutely unstable, the theory of Bénard convection (Rayleigh, 1916), predicts roughly the same horizontal and vertical dimensions for the convection cells and hence a horizontal dimension of the order of 10 km. The energy of a cumulus cloud is derived from the un- balanced vertical pressure forces acting on buoyant elements of saturated air; there is no evidence that such forces exist on the scale of the tropical depression.

热带低气压的不稳定性 。低气压和积云对流是一种合作现象。与热带外气旋理论类似，飓风的形成很容易归因于某种形式的流体动力不稳定性。扰动的增长有多种原因，如温度不连续的不稳定性（锋面不稳定性）、水平温度梯度的不稳定性（气压不稳定性）、圆形涡旋中沿等熵面径向递减的角熵的不稳定性（旋转不稳定性），或绝对涡度剖面中具有极值的水平剪切力的不稳定性（瑞利不稳定性）。

第四种情况很可能是冷核东风波的原因，但几乎可以肯定不是飓风的原因。作者认为，没有任何有力的证据表明存在其他不稳定性，或者即使存在，它们也会导致观测到的运动。

然而，第五种不稳定性无疑是存在的。这就是与饱和空气熵随高度降低有关的重力不稳定性（条件不稳定性）。那么，热带扰动有可能仅仅是大尺度对流翻腾吗？这不太可能，因为虽然这种大尺度运动在理论上是可能的，但 J. Bjerknes（1938 年）和 E. Höiland （1939 年）已经证明，条件不稳定性有利于尽可能小尺度的积云对流。实际上，如果没有摩擦和干燥空气的夹带，首选的对流单元会有一个无限狭窄的上升分支。积云的能量来自于作用在饱和空气浮力要素上的不平衡垂直压力；没有证据表明热带低气压存在这种强迫。

Nevertheless, conditional instability, by permitting cumulonimbus convection, must play a role in the formation of the hurricane. The most striking charac- teristic of the pre-hurricane depression as well as of the level convergence; the latent heat energy released is two orders of magnitude greater than the amount needed to maintain the kinetic energy against frictional dissipation. This suggests that we should look upon the competing for the same energy, for in this competition the cumulus cell must win; rather we should consider the two as supporting one another-the cumulus cell by supplying the heat energy for driving the depression, and the depression by producing the low-level con-vergence of moisture into the cumulus cell. The primary pre-hurricane depression and the cumulus cell not as
purpose of the present paper is to show that this type of interaction does lead to a large-scale self-amplifica-tion, which we may call conditional instability of the second kind（CISK） to contrast it with the conditional instability responsible for small-scale cumulus convection.

尽管如此，条件不稳定性允许积雨云对流，在飓风的形成过程中一定发挥了作用。飓风前的低气压以及水平辐合的最显著特征是：释放的潜热能量比维持动能抵御摩擦耗散所需的能量大两个数量级。这表明，我们不应该把两者看成是在争夺相同的能量，因为在这场竞争中，积云气团必须获胜；相反，我们应该把两者看成是相互支持的–积云气团为推动低气压提供热能，而低气压则为积云气团提供低层辐合水汽。飓风来临前的主要低气压和积云气团并不是飓风来临前的主要低气压和积云气团。

本文的目的是要说明这种相互作用确实会导致大尺度的自我膨胀，我们可以称之为第二种条件不稳定性，以与造成小尺度积云对流的条件不稳定性形成对比。

后续相关内容感兴趣的可以去看文献。这里只是介绍CISK机制的提出

MJO 动力学 | 主要理论

对流与环流相互作用

• low-frequency equatorial waves
• convective latent heating
• moisture distribution and convergence

MJO 主要理论

• Equatorial wave-cisk (Lindzen 1974;Hayashi 1970;)

• Exaporation-wind feedback (e.g., Emanuel 1987; Wang 1988; Jones and Weare 1996)

• Stratiform instability (Mapes 2000)

• Frictional coupled moist kelvin-rossby waves (Wang 1988; Maloney and Hartmann 1998)

• Discharge–recharge mechanism (Bladé and Hartmann 1993; Hu and Randall 1994; Kemball-Cook and Weare 2001).

• Atmosphere-ocean interaction (Flatau et al. 1997)

• Moisture mode (Sobel and Malone 2012,2013; Adames 2016)

• Multi-scale interaction (Majda and Stechmann 2009a,b)

• Convective self-aggregation (Pritchard and Yang 2016, Emanuel 2019)

• Non-instantaneous Convection–Convergence Feedback (Liu et al. 2019,2022)

Debate between CISK and QE

• energy source
• CAPE variance
• correlation between heating and termperature

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