统计问题第19问

Question

If the prevalence of blood group O Positive is 9%, what is the probability that among four randomly chosen unrelated people none will be O or Positive?

a)36%

b)64%

c)66%

d)69%

Answer

We must assume that the probability of a person being O positive is equal to the prevalence, and that each person’s probability is independent of the others. We must also assume that everyone can be classified as “O positive” and “not O or negative” so that the two probabilities add up to 100%. These seem reasonable assumptions.

In which case the probability of not being O or negative is 91%. The probability of several unrelated events occurring together is found by multiplying the individual probabilities. This doesn’t work if there is some linkage between events, such as people being related.

Hence the chance that among four randomly chosen unrelated people none will be O  positive is 91% × 91% × 91% ×91%, which is 68.57%.

答案是D

每天学习一点，你会更强大！