房贷利率LPR切换后如何选择还款方式？本结果不支持切换成LPR决策？欢迎讨论（二）

上一篇计算得出的结论第二条非常反直觉！我觉得不对劲，所以将通胀率和LPR的变化关系进行了变化：

我假设通胀率=k/LPR,

其中设定k=通胀率初值*LPR初值

以上规定的理由是：通胀率和LPR成反相关，反相关系数为k

以下是中国指数，来源https://www.ceicdata.com/zh-hans/country/china

通过图中展示的曲线，我得出的结论是，通胀是在大多数时候发生的大概率事件，银行贷款利率一直在下调，消费者价格指数也大多数时候为正值，以人民币购买力计算的通胀在大放水的情况下，一定是远超贷款利率水平的。

 

代码如下：

https://github.com/yangh2333/-House-property-/blob/master/CalculateHousingLoan

由以上公式，对上篇状况第二次仿真结果如下：

结论：

默认条件：通胀率 > LPR

1、依然是等额本息比等额本金划算

2、LPR下行，通胀率上行，最划算

3、月供的折现值，在LPR下行时还款压力在10年后变得十分轻松。但LPR上行，10000月供在最后变成4000，负担下降，但降幅不大，维持和社会基本工资相当。

本金	还款方式	LPR月利率/通胀率	月供	总还款	总折现款（按LPR通胀）	总折现款（按通胀率初值=2*LPR初值）	总折现款（按通胀率初值=4*LPR初值）
200万	等额本息	不变4.75%	10432	3755860	2000000	1240755	656617
		降低4.75%匀降到0.5%	10432~7958	3172902	1461178	937689	549193
		升高4.75%匀升到8%	10432~12655	4257985	2417233	1514984	766762
	等额本金	不变4.75%	13472~5577	3428958	2000000	1330351	762237
		降低4.75%匀降到0.5%	13472~5558	3026684	1562304	1060457	652957
		升高4.75%匀升到8%	13472~5592	3736579	2303355	1549892	864233

+++++++++++等额本息+++++++++++++

++++++++++ 初始通胀率=初始LPR++++

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.0475
inflation rate times by LPR is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730061847
total payedback is        3755860.8228223836
total conversion back is: 2000000.0000000116
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.005
inflation rate times by LPR is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 7958.323764604197
total payedback is        3172902.8315327065
total conversion back is: 1461178.4334697158
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.08
inflation rate times by LPR is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 12655.590181551723
total payedback is        4257985.192792086
total conversion back is: 2417233.1574840792
-------------end------------------------

+++++++++++等额本息+++++++++++++

++++++++++ 初始通胀率=初始LPR*2++++

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.0475
inflation rate times by LPR is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730061847
total payedback is        3755860.8228223836
total conversion back is: 1240755.7268539048
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.005
inflation rate times by LPR is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 7958.323764604197
total payedback is        3172902.8315327065
total conversion back is: 937689.2259473074
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.08
inflation rate times by LPR is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 12655.590181551723
total payedback is        4257985.192792086
total conversion back is: 1514984.474345467
-------------end------------------------

+++++++++++等额本息+++++++++++++

++++++++++ 初始通胀率=初始LPR*4++++

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.0475
inflation rate times by LPR is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730061847
total payedback is        3755860.8228223836
total conversion back is: 656617.5359742445
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.005
inflation rate times by LPR is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 7958.323764604197
total payedback is        3172902.8315327065
total conversion back is: 549193.8775695525
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.08
inflation rate times by LPR is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 12655.590181551723
total payedback is        4257985.192792086
total conversion back is: 766762.211863819
-------------end------------------------

+++++++++++等额本金+++++++++++++

++++++++++ 初始通胀率=初始LPR++++

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.0475
inflation rate times by LPR is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5577.546296296348
total payedback is        3428958.3333333456
total conversion back is: 2000000.0000000165
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.005
inflation rate times by LPR is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5558.526234567908
total payedback is        3026684.0277777864
total conversion back is: 1562304.569583039
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.08
inflation rate times by LPR is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5592.091049382803
total payedback is        3736579.8611111296
total conversion back is: 2303355.0064343777
-------------end------------------------

+++++++++++等额本金+++++++++++++

++++++++++ 初始通胀率=初始LPR*2++++

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.0475
inflation rate times by LPR is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5577.546296296348
total payedback is        3428958.3333333456
total conversion back is: 1330351.8914530918
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.005
inflation rate times by LPR is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5558.526234567908
total payedback is        3026684.0277777864
total conversion back is: 1060457.4485369534
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.08
inflation rate times by LPR is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5592.091049382803
total payedback is        3736579.8611111296
total conversion back is: 1549892.549813679
-------------end------------------------

+++++++++++等额本金+++++++++++++

++++++++++ 初始通胀率=初始LPR*4++++

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.0475
inflation rate times by LPR is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5577.546296296348
total payedback is        3428958.3333333456
total conversion back is: 762237.1675692783
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.005
inflation rate times by LPR is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5558.526234567908
total payedback is        3026684.0277777864
total conversion back is: 652957.3554340274
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is           2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is         equality_corpus
LPR change forme  0.0475  to  0.08
inflation rate times by LPR is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month  monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month  monthly_payback= 5592.091049382803
total payedback is        3736579.8611111296
total conversion back is: 864233.661418452
-------------end------------------------