上一篇计算得出的结论第二条非常反直觉!我觉得不对劲,所以将通胀率和LPR的变化关系进行了变化:
我假设通胀率=k/LPR,
其中设定k=通胀率初值*LPR初值
以上规定的理由是:通胀率和LPR成反相关,反相关系数为k
以下是中国指数,来源https://www.ceicdata.com/zh-hans/country/china
通过图中展示的曲线,我得出的结论是,通胀是在大多数时候发生的大概率事件,银行贷款利率一直在下调,消费者价格指数也大多数时候为正值,以人民币购买力计算的通胀在大放水的情况下,一定是远超贷款利率水平的。
代码如下:
https://github.com/yangh2333/-House-property-/blob/master/CalculateHousingLoan
由以上公式,对上篇状况第二次仿真结果如下:
结论:
默认条件:通胀率 > LPR
1、依然是等额本息比等额本金划算
2、LPR下行,通胀率上行,最划算
3、月供的折现值,在LPR下行时还款压力在10年后变得十分轻松。但LPR上行,10000月供在最后变成4000,负担下降,但降幅不大,维持和社会基本工资相当。
本金 | 还款方式 | LPR月利率/通胀率 | 月供 | 总还款 | 总折现款(按LPR通胀) | 总折现款(按通胀率初值=2*LPR初值) | 总折现款(按通胀率初值=4*LPR初值) |
200万 | 等额本息 | 不变4.75% | 10432 | 3755860 | 2000000 | 1240755 | 656617 |
降低4.75%匀降到0.5% | 10432~7958 | 3172902 | 1461178 | 937689 | 549193 | ||
升高4.75%匀升到8% | 10432~12655 | 4257985 | 2417233 | 1514984 | 766762 | ||
等额本金 | 不变4.75% | 13472~5577 | 3428958 | 2000000 | 1330351 | 762237 | |
降低4.75%匀降到0.5% | 13472~5558 | 3026684 | 1562304 | 1060457 | 652957 | ||
升高4.75%匀升到8% | 13472~5592 | 3736579 | 2303355 | 1549892 | 864233 |
+++++++++++等额本息+++++++++++++
++++++++++ 初始通胀率=初始LPR++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.0475
inflation rate times by LPR is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 10432.946730061847
total payedback is 3755860.8228223836
total conversion back is: 2000000.0000000116
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.005
inflation rate times by LPR is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 7958.323764604197
total payedback is 3172902.8315327065
total conversion back is: 1461178.4334697158
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.08
inflation rate times by LPR is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 12655.590181551723
total payedback is 4257985.192792086
total conversion back is: 2417233.1574840792
-------------end------------------------
+++++++++++等额本息+++++++++++++
++++++++++ 初始通胀率=初始LPR*2++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.0475
inflation rate times by LPR is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 10432.946730061847
total payedback is 3755860.8228223836
total conversion back is: 1240755.7268539048
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.005
inflation rate times by LPR is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 7958.323764604197
total payedback is 3172902.8315327065
total conversion back is: 937689.2259473074
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.08
inflation rate times by LPR is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 12655.590181551723
total payedback is 4257985.192792086
total conversion back is: 1514984.474345467
-------------end------------------------
+++++++++++等额本息+++++++++++++
++++++++++ 初始通胀率=初始LPR*4++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.0475
inflation rate times by LPR is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 10432.946730061847
total payedback is 3755860.8228223836
total conversion back is: 656617.5359742445
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.005
inflation rate times by LPR is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 7958.323764604197
total payedback is 3172902.8315327065
total conversion back is: 549193.8775695525
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus_and_interest
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.08
inflation rate times by LPR is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 10432.946730062275
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 12655.590181551723
total payedback is 4257985.192792086
total conversion back is: 766762.211863819
-------------end------------------------
+++++++++++等额本金+++++++++++++
++++++++++ 初始通胀率=初始LPR++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.0475
inflation rate times by LPR is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 5577.546296296348
total payedback is 3428958.3333333456
total conversion back is: 2000000.0000000165
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.005
inflation rate times by LPR is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 5558.526234567908
total payedback is 3026684.0277777864
total conversion back is: 1562304.569583039
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.08
inflation rate times by LPR is 1
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 5592.091049382803
total payedback is 3736579.8611111296
total conversion back is: 2303355.0064343777
-------------end------------------------
+++++++++++等额本金+++++++++++++
++++++++++ 初始通胀率=初始LPR*2++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.0475
inflation rate times by LPR is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 5577.546296296348
total payedback is 3428958.3333333456
total conversion back is: 1330351.8914530918
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.005
inflation rate times by LPR is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 5558.526234567908
total payedback is 3026684.0277777864
total conversion back is: 1060457.4485369534
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.08
inflation rate times by LPR is 2
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 5592.091049382803
total payedback is 3736579.8611111296
total conversion back is: 1549892.549813679
-------------end------------------------
+++++++++++等额本金+++++++++++++
++++++++++ 初始通胀率=初始LPR*4++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.0475
inflation rate times by LPR is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 5577.546296296348
total payedback is 3428958.3333333456
total conversion back is: 762237.1675692783
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.005
inflation rate times by LPR is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 5558.526234567908
total payedback is 3026684.0277777864
total conversion back is: 652957.3554340274
-------------end------------------------
-------------begin----------------------
----------------------------------------
housing loan is 2000000
housing loan payback years 30
payback method is equality_corpus
LPR change forme 0.0475 to 0.08
inflation rate times by LPR is 4
-------------result----------------------
0 year 0 month monthly_payback= 13472.222222222223
29 year 11 month monthly_payback= 5592.091049382803
total payedback is 3736579.8611111296
total conversion back is: 864233.661418452
-------------end------------------------