990-50产品经理:An Overview of Decision-Making Models 决策模型概述

Model of Decision-Making

Decision-making is the process of selecting the best choices among various options. Every person has to make many decisions on a daily basis, and the decisions range from simple ones, such as what to eat or where to go out for fun, to more complicated and important decisions, such as which university to attend or which major to study. These decisions tend to be personal and only affect one individual at a time. For a top-level manager of a big company, decision-making is another story because his decision can influence hundreds of other employees’ lives and can even change the course of a company. Each manager employs a different decision-making model to evaluate their choices and reach the final decision. However, regardless of the models managers choose, there exist inherent decision-making traps. If they do not recognize and learn to deal with them, they will suffer from choosing the wrong course of action, which can lead to problematic consequences.
决策模型
决策是在各种方案中选择最佳方案的过程。每个人每天都要做很多决定，从简单的决定，比如吃什么，去哪里玩，到更复杂和重要的决定，比如上哪所大学，学哪个专业。这些决定往往是个人的，一次只影响一个人。对于一个大公司的高层管理者来说，决策是另一回事，因为他的决定可以影响数百名其他员工的生活，甚至可以改变一个公司的进程。每个管理者都采用不同的决策模型来评估他们的选择，并达成最终的决定。然而，无论管理者选择何种模式，都存在着固有的决策陷阱。果他们没有认识到并学会处理这些问题，他们就会因为选择了错误的行动方针而遭受痛苦，这可能会导致有问题的后果。

Rational Decision-Making Model

The classic decision-making model is the rational decision-making model, which consists of eight steps that decision-makers need to take to achieve the optimal decision given their goals and constraints. In order to come up with an appropriate decision, they should establish a list of criteria used to evaluate their choices. By adopting this model, the decision-makers have the opportunity to contemplate what things matter the most in their situation and select the choices that best reflect their standards. However, the problem with this model is the fact that people do not always know what they want or have enough information about the available alternatives, and usually, people end up just making a “good enough” or a safe-bet decision.
理性决策模型
经典的决策模型是理性决策模型，它包括决策者在给定目标和约束条件下，为达到最优决策所需要采取的八个步骤。为了做出一个适当的决定，他们应该建立一个标准清单，用来评估他们的选择。通过采用这种模式，决策者有机会考虑在他们的情况下什么事情最重要，并选择最能反映他们标准的选择。然而，这种模式的问题是，人们并不总是知道他们想要什么，也不总是有足够的信息来了解可供选择的方案，通常，人们最终只是做出一个“足够好”或安全的决定。