990-51产品经理:Problem Solving and Decision Making (Solving Problems and Making Decisions) 解决问题与决策（解决问题与

Problem Solving and Decision Making (Solving Problems and Making Decisions)
解决问题与决策（解决问题与决策）

Guidelines to Problem-Solving and Decision Making (Rational Approach) 问题解决和决策指南（理性方法）

Much of what people do is solve problems and make decisions. Often, they are “under the gun”, stressed, and very short of time. Consequently, when they encounter a new problem or decision they must make, they react with a decision that seemed to work before. It’s easy with this approach to get stuck in a circle of solving the same problem over and over again. Therefore, it’s often useful to get used to an organized approach to problem-solving and decision-making.

Not all problems can be solved and decisions made by the following, rather rational approach. However, the following basic guidelines will get you started. Don’t be intimidated by the length of the list of guidelines. After you’ve practiced them a few times, they’ll become second nature to you — enough that you can deepen and enrich them to suit your own needs and nature.

(Note that it might be more your nature to view a “problem” as an “opportunity”. Therefore, you might substitute “problem” for “opportunity” in the following guidelines.)

1. Define the problem
   This is often where people struggle. They react to what they think the problem is. Instead, seek to understand more about why you think there’s a problem.

Define the problem: (with input from yourself and others). Ask yourself and others, the following questions:
What can you see that causes you to think there’s a problem?
Where is it happening?
How is it happening?
When is it happening?
With whom is it happening? (HINT: Don’t jump to “Who is causing the problem?” When we’re stressed, blaming is often one of our first reactions. To be an effective manager, you need to address issues more than people.)
Why is it happening?
Write down a five-sentence description of the problem in terms of “The following should be happening, but isn’t …” or “The following is happening and should be: …” As much as possible, be specific in your description, including what is happening, where, how, with whom and why. (It may be helpful at this point to use a variety of research methods.)
Defining complex problems:
If the problem still seems overwhelming, break it down by repeating steps 1-7 until you have descriptions of several related problems.

Verifying your understanding of the problems:
It helps a great deal to verify your problem analysis for conferring with a peer or someone else.

Prioritize the problems:
If you discover that you are looking at several related problems, then prioritize which ones you should address first.

Note the difference between “important” and “urgent” problems. Often, what we consider to be important problems to consider are really just urgent problems. Important problems deserve more attention. For example, if you’re continually answering “urgent” phone calls, then you’ve probably got a more “important” problem and that’s to design a system that screens and prioritizes your phone calls.

Understand your role in the problem:
Your role in the problem can greatly influence how you perceive the role of others. For example, if you’re very stressed out, it’ll probably look like others are, too, or, you may resort too quickly to blaming and reprimanding others. Or, you are feel very guilty about your role in the problem, you may ignore the accountabilities of others.

2. Look at potential causes for the problem
   It’s amazing how much you don’t know about what you don’t know. Therefore, in this phase, it’s critical to get input from other people who notice the problem and who are affected by it.
   It’s often useful to collect input from other individuals one at a time (at least at first). Otherwise, people tend to be inhibited about offering their impressions of the real causes of problems.
   Write down your opinions and what you’ve heard from others.
   Regarding what you think might be performance problems associated with an employee, it’s often useful to seek advice from a peer or your supervisor in order to verify your impression of the problem.
   Write down a description of the cause of the problem in terms of what is happening, where, when, how, with whom, and why.

3. Identify alternatives for approaches to resolve the problem
   At this point, it’s useful to keep others involved (unless you’re facing a personal and/or employee performance problem). Brainstorm for solutions to the problem. Very simply put, brainstorming is collecting as many ideas as possible, and then screening them to find the best idea. It’s critical when collecting the ideas to not pass any judgment on the ideas — just write them down as you hear them. (A wonderful set of skills used to identify the underlying cause of issues is Systems Thinking.)

4. Select an approach to resolve the problem
   When selecting the best approach, consider:
   Which approach is the most likely to solve the problem for the long term?
   Which approach is the most realistic to accomplish for now? Do you have the resources? Are they affordable? Do you have enough time to implement the approach?
   What is the extent of risk associated with each alternative?
   (The nature of this step, in particular, in the problem solving process is why problem solving and decision making are highly integrated.)

5. Plan the implementation of the best alternative (this is your action plan)
   Carefully consider “What will the situation look like when the problem is solved?”
   What steps should be taken to implement the best alternative to solving the problem? What systems or processes should be changed in your organization, for example, a new policy or procedure? Don’t resort to solutions where someone is “just going to try harder”.
   How will you know if the steps are being followed or not? (these are your indicators of the success of your plan)
   What resources will you need in terms of people, money, and facilities?
   How much time will you need to implement the solution? Write a schedule that includes the start and stop times, and when you expect to see certain indicators of success.
   Who will primarily be responsible for ensuring the implementation of the plan?
   Write down the answers to the above questions and consider this as your action plan.
   Communicate the plan to those who will involved in implementing it and, at least, to your immediate supervisor.
   (An important aspect of this step in the problem-solving process is continual observation and feedback.)

6. Monitor implementation of the plan
   Monitor the indicators of success:

Are you seeing what you would expect from the indicators?
Will the plan be done according to schedule?
If the plan is not being followed as expected, then consider: Was the plan realistic? Are there sufficient resources to accomplish the plan on schedule? Should more priority be placed on various aspects of the plan? Should the plan be changed?
7. Verify if the problem has been resolved or not
One of the best ways to verify if a problem has been solved or not is to resume normal operations in the organization. Still, you should consider:

What changes should be made to avoid this type of problem in the future? Consider changes to policies and procedures, training, etc.
Lastly, consider “What did you learn from this problem-solving?” Consider new knowledge, understanding, and/or skills.
Consider writing a brief memo that highlights the success of the problem-solving effort, and what you learned as a result. Share it with your supervisor, peers and subordinates.

人们所做的大部分事情是解决问题和做出决定。 通常，他们“处于枪口之下”，压力很大，而且时间很短。 因此，当他们遇到新的问题或必须做出的决定时，他们会做出以前似乎有效的决定。 这种方法很容易陷入一遍又一遍解决同一问题的怪圈。 因此，习惯有组织的解决问题和决策的方法通常很有用。

并非所有问题都可以通过以下相当理性的方法来解决和做出决策。 但是，以下基本指南将帮助您入门。 不要被指南列表的长度吓倒。 在你练习几次之后，它们就会成为你的第二天性——足以让你可以加深和丰富它们，以满足你自己的需求和本性。

（请注意，您可能更倾向于将“问题”视为“机会”。因此，您可以在以下指南中用“问题”代替“机会”。）

1. 定义问题
   这往往是人们挣扎的地方。 他们对他们认为的问题做出反应。 相反，寻求更多地了解您认为存在问题的原因。

定义问题：（根据您自己和他人的意见）。 问自己和他人以下问题：
您看到什么让您认为存在问题？
它发生在哪里？
这是怎么回事？
什么时候发生？
事情发生在谁身上？ （提示：不要跳到“谁造成了问题？”当我们有压力时，责备往往是我们的第一反应之一。要成为一名有效的管理者，你需要解决问题而不是解决人。）
为什么会发生这种情况？
用“以下内容应该发生，但不是……”或“以下内容正在发生并且应该是：……”写下问题的五句话描述，描述尽可能具体，包括 正在发生什么、在哪里、如何发生、与谁发生以及为什么发生。 （此时使用各种研究方法可能会有所帮助。）
定义复杂问题：
如果问题仍然难以解决，请重复步骤 1-7 对其进行分解，直到您描述了几个相关问题。

验证您对问题的理解：
它有助于验证您的问题分析，以便与同事或其他人协商。

确定问题的优先级：
如果您发现正在考虑几个相关的问题，那么请优先考虑应该首先解决的问题。

注意“重要”和“紧急”问题之间的区别。 通常，我们认为需要考虑的重要问题实际上只是紧急问题。 重要问题值得更多关注。 例如，如果您不断接听“紧急”电话，那么您可能遇到了一个更“重要”的问题，那就是设计一个系统来筛选和优先处理您的电话。

了解您在问题中的角色：
您在问题中的角色会极大地影响您对他人角色的看法。 例如，如果你压力很大，其他人可能也会感到压力很大，或者你可能会太快地指责和斥责他人。 或者，您对自己在问题中所扮演的角色感到非常内疚，您可能会忽视他人的责任。

2. 查看问题的潜在原因
   令人惊讶的是，你对自己不知道的事情竟然一无所知。 因此，在此阶段，从注意到问题和受问题影响的其他人那里获取意见至关重要。
   一次收集其他人的意见（至少一开始是这样）通常很有用。 否则，人们往往不愿表达对问题真正原因的印象。
   写下您的意见以及您从其他人那里听到的内容。
   对于您认为可能与员工相关的绩效问题，向同事或主管寻求建议通常很有用，以验证您对问题的印象。
   写下问题原因的描述，包括发生的事情、地点、时间、方式、与谁以及为什么。

3. 确定解决问题的替代方法
   此时，让其他人参与是很有用的（除非您面临个人和/或员工绩效问题）。 集思广益，寻找问题的解决方案。 很简单，头脑风暴就是收集尽可能多的想法，然后筛选它们以找到最好的想法。 在收集想法时，不要对这些想法做出任何判断，这一点很重要——只要在听到它们时把它们写下来。 （用于识别问题根本原因的一组出色技能是系统思维。）

4. 选择解决问题的方法
   选择最佳方法时，请考虑：
   哪种方法最有可能长期解决问题？
   目前哪种方法最现实？ 你有资源吗？ 它们负担得起吗？ 您有足够的时间来实施该方法吗？
   与每个替代方案相关的风险程度是多少？

维？
（这一步骤的本质，特别是在问题解决过程中，是问题解决和决策高度集成的原因。）

5. 计划最佳替代方案的实施（这是你的行动计划）
   仔细思考“问题解决后，情况会是什么样子？”
   应采取哪些步骤来实施解决问题的最佳替代方案？ 您的组织中应该更改哪些系统或流程，例如新的政策或程序？ 不要诉诸于“只是更加努力”的解决方案。
   您如何知道是否遵循了这些步骤？ （这些是你的计划成功的指标）
   您需要哪些人员、资金和设施方面的资源？
   您需要多少时间来实施该解决方案？ 编写一个时间表，其中包括开始和停止时间，以及您期望看到某些成功指标的时间。
   谁将主要负责确保规划的实施？
   写下上述问题的答案，并将其视为您的行动计划。
   将计划传达给参与实施的人员，至少传达给您的直接主管。
   （解决问题过程中这一步的一个重要方面是持续观察和反馈。）

6. 监督计划的实施
   监控成功指标：

您是否从这些指标中看到了您的期望？
计划会按计划进行吗？
如果计划没有按预期执行，那么请考虑：该计划是否现实？ 是否有足够的资源来按时完成计划？ 是否应该更加优先考虑计划的各个方面？ 计划是否应该改变？
7. 验证问题是否已解决
验证问题是否已解决的最佳方法之一是恢复组织的正常运营。 不过，您应该考虑：

今后应该做出哪些改变来避免此类问题？ 考虑改变政策和程序、培训等。
最后，考虑一下“你从这个解决问题中学到了什么？” 考虑新的知识、理解和/或技能。
考虑写一份简短的备忘录，强调解决问题的努力的成功以及您从中学到的东西。 与您的主管、同事和下属分享。

Rational Versus Organic Approach to Problem Solving 解决问题的理性与有机方法

Rational
A person with this preference often prefers using a comprehensive and logical approach similar to the guidelines in the above section. For example, the rational approach, described below, is often used when addressing large, complex matters in strategic planning.

Define the problem.
Examine all potential causes for the problem.
Identify all alternatives to resolve the problem.
Carefully select an alternative.
Develop an orderly implementation plan to implement the best alternative.
Carefully monitor the implementation of the plan.
Verify if the problem has been resolved or not.
A major advantage of this approach is that it gives a strong sense of order in an otherwise chaotic situation and provides a common frame of reference from which people can communicate in the situation. A major disadvantage of this approach is that it can take a long time to finish. Some people might argue, too, that the world is much too chaotic for the rational approach to be useful.

Organic
Some people assert that the dynamics of organizations and people are not nearly so mechanistic as to be improved by solving one problem after another. Often, the quality of an organization or life comes from how one handles being “on the road” itself, rather than the “arriving at the destination.” The quality comes from the ongoing process of trying, rather than from having fixed a lot of problems. For many people, it is an approach to organizational consulting. The following quote is often used when explaining the organic (or holistic) approach to problem solving.

“All the greatest and most important problems in life are fundamentally insoluble … They can never be solved, but only outgrown. This “outgrowing” proves that further investigation to require a new level of consciousness. Some higher or wider interest appeared on the horizon and through this broadening of outlook, the insoluble lost its urgency. It was not solved logically in its own terms, but faded when confronted with a new and stronger life urge.”

From Jung, Carl, Psychological Types (Pantheon Books, 1923)

A major advantage of the organic approach is that it is highly adaptable to understanding and explaining the chaotic changes that occur in projects and everyday life. It also suits the nature of people who shun linear and mechanistic approaches to projects. The major disadvantage is that the approach often provides no clear frame of reference around which people can communicate, feel comfortable and measure progress toward solutions to problems.

合理的
有这种偏好的人通常更喜欢使用类似于上一节中的指南的全面且逻辑的方法。 例如，在解决战略规划中的大型复杂问题时，通常会使用如下所述的理性方法。

定义问题。
检查问题的所有潜在原因。
确定解决问题的所有替代方案。
仔细选择替代方案。
制定有序的实施计划以实施最佳替代方案。
认真监督计划的实施情况。
验证问题是否已解决。
这种方法的一个主要优点是，它在混乱的情况下给人一种强烈的秩序感，并提供了一个共同的参考框架，人们可以在这种情况下进行交流。 这种方法的一个主要缺点是可能需要很长时间才能完成。 有些人可能还会争辩说，世界太混乱了，理性方法没有用处。

有机的
有些人断言，组织和人员的动力并不那么机械化，可以通过解决一个又一个问题来改善。 通常，组织或生活的质量取决于一个人如何处理“在路上”本身，而不是“到达目的地”。 质量来自于不断尝试的过程，而不是来自于解决了很多问题。 对于许多人来说，这是一种组织咨询的方法。 在解释解决问题的有机（或整体）方法时经常使用以下引文。

“生活中所有最大、最重要的问题从根本上来说都是无法解决的……它们永远无法解决，只会随着时间的推移而变得不再适用。 这种“超越”证明进一步的调查需要新的意识水平。 一些更高或更广泛的兴趣出现在地平线上，通过这种视野的开阔，无法解决的问题失去了紧迫性。 它并没有按照其本身的逻辑逻辑得到解决，而是在面对新的、更强烈的生活冲动时消失了。”

摘自卡尔·荣格，《心理类型》（Pantheon Books，1923 年）

有机方法的一个主要优点是它非常适合理解和解释项目和日常生活中发生的混乱变化。 它也适合那些回避线性和机械式项目方法的人的本性。 主要缺点是该方法通常没有提供明确的参考框架，人们可以围绕该框架进行交流、感到舒适并衡量问题解决方案的进展。