如何理解条件概率(conditional probability)

条件概率

初步理解


原文链接

理解

上面的图片中说:
A conditional probability would look at these two events in relationship with one another, such as the probability that you are both accepted to college, and you are provided with dormitory housing.

就是说你得到宿舍的概率 p 2 p2 p2应该是这样子计算的:你被学校录取的概率 p 0 p0 p0,乘以录取后,你被学校提供宿舍的概率 p 1 p1 p1

那么计算作为一名校内的学生能够住宿的概率应为 p 2 / p 0 p2/p0 p2/p0

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import numpy as np def loaddata(): X = np.array([[1,'S'],[1,'M'],[1,'M'],[1,'S'], [1, 'S'], [2, 'S'], [2, 'M'], [2, 'M'], [2, 'L'], [2, 'L'], [3, 'L'], [3, 'M'], [3, 'M'], [3, 'L'], [3, 'L']]) y = np.array([-1,-1,1,1,-1,-1,-1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,-1]) return X, y def Train(trainset,train_labels): m = trainset.shape[0] n = trainset.shape[1] prior_probability = {}# 先验概率 key是类别值,value是类别的概率conditional_probability ={}# 条件概率 key的构造:类别,特征,特征值 #类别的可能取值 labels = set(train_labels) # 计算先验概率(此时没有除以总数据量m) for label in labels: prior_probability[label] = len(train_labels[train_labels == label])+1 #计算条件概率 for i in range(m): for j in range(n): # key的构造:类别,特征,特征值 #补充计算条件概率的代码-1; key = str(train_labels[i])+','+str(j)+','+str(trainset[i][j]) conditional_probability[key] = (conditional_probability[key]+1 if (key in conditional_probability) else 1) conditional_probability_final = {} for key in conditional_probability: #补充计算条件概率的代码-2; label = key.split(',')[0] conditional_probability[key]+=1 key1 = int(key.split(',')[1]) Ni = len(set(trainset[:,key1])) conditional_probability_final[key] =conditional_probability[key]/(prior_probability[int(label)]+Ni) # 最终的先验概率(此时除以总数据量m) for label in labels: prior_probability[label] = prior_probability[label]/ (m+len(labels)) return prior_probability,conditional_probability_final,labels def predict(data): result={} for label in train_labels_set: temp=1.0 #补充预测代码; print('result=',result) #排序返回标签值 result[label] = temp*prior_probability[label] for i in range (len(data)): key = str(label)+ ','+str(i)+','+str(data[i]) result[label]*=conditional_probability_final[key] print('result=',result) #排序返回标签值 return sorted(result.items(), key=lambda x: x[1],reverse=True)[0][0] X,y = loaddata() prior_probability,conditional_probability,train_labels_set = Train(X,y) r_label = predict([2,'S']) print(' r_label =', r_label)运行次python代码
最新发布
06-07
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