概率论详解

概率论详解

概率DP

期望DP

原理：

全概率公式。

对某个值的期望就是值乘以概率的和。

P1850

#include <bits/stdc++.h>

using namespace std;

#define FR freopen("in.txt", "r", stdin)
#define FW freopen("out.txt", "w", stdout)

typedef long long ll;

#define INF 500000

int n, m, v, e;

int ci[2005];
int di[2005];
double pi[2005];

int mp[305][305];

double dp[2005][2];

void flody()
{
    for (int k = 1; k <= v; k++)
        for (int i = 1; i <= v; i++)
            for (int j = 1; j <= v; j++)
            {
                mp[i][j] = min(mp[i][j], mp[i][k] + mp[k][j]);
            }
}

int main()
{
    scanf("%d %d %d %d", &n, &m, &v, &e);

    for (int i = 1; i <= n; i++)
    {
        scanf("%d", ci + i);
    }

    for (int i = 1; i <= n; i++)
    {
        scanf("%d", di + i);
    }

    for (int i = 1; i <= n; i++)
    {
        scanf("%lf", pi + i);
    }

    for (int i = 1; i <= v; i++)
        for (int j = 1; j <= v; j++)
        {
            mp[i][j] = INF;
        }

    for (int i = 1; i <= e; i++)
    {
        int u, v, w;
        scanf("%d %d %d", &u, &v, &w);
        mp[u][v] = mp[v][u] = min(mp[u][v], w);
    }

    for (int i = 1; i <= v; i++)
        mp[i][i] = 0;

    flody();

    // DP
    dp[0][1] = INF;
    for (int i = 2; i <= n; i++)
    {
        for (int j = m; j >= 1; j--)
        {
            // 递推：全概率公式
            // 期望：对某个值的期望就是值乘以概率的和
            dp[j][0] = min(dp[j][0] + mp[ci[i - 1]][ci[i]],
                           dp[j][1] +
                               pi[i - 1] * mp[di[i - 1]][ci[i]] +
                               (1 - pi[i - 1]) * mp[ci[i - 1]][ci[i]]);
            dp[j][1] = min(dp[j - 1][0] + pi[i] * mp[ci[i - 1]][di[i]] + (1 - pi[i]) * mp[ci[i - 1]][ci[i]],
                           dp[j - 1][1] +
                               pi[i - 1] * pi[i] * mp[di[i - 1]][di[i]] +
                               pi[i - 1] * (1 - pi[i]) * mp[di[i - 1]][ci[i]] +
                               (1 - pi[i - 1]) * pi[i] * mp[ci[i - 1]][di[i]] +
                               (1 - pi[i - 1]) * (1 - pi[i]) * mp[ci[i - 1]][ci[i]]);
        }
        dp[0][0] += mp[ci[i - 1]][ci[i]];
    }
    printf("%.2f", min(dp[m][0], dp[m][1]));
    return 0;
}

分解期望

有时候期望的总体情况不太好求，我们可以使用分解期望。

P3802

我们设$X_i$为在第$i$个位置释放七重奏的次数，因此总的次数就是$X=X_7+X_8+\dots +X_n$。因而期望也就是$E(X)=E(X_7)+E(X_8)+\dots +E(X_n)$。

对于每一个$X_i$其取值只能是$0$和$1$，并且：

P { X = 1 } = 7 ! ∏ i = 1 7 a i N − i + 1 P\{X = 1\} = 7! \prod_{i = 1}^{7}\frac{a_i}{N-i+1} P{X=1}=7!i=1∏7​N−i+1ai​​

简单证明即可。

因此答案就是$E(X)=(N-6)P$

#include <bits/stdc++.h>

using namespace std;

typedef unsigned long long ll;

#define FR freopen("in.txt", "r", stdin)
#define FW freopen("out.txt", "w", stdout)

int main()
{
    ll a, b, c, d, e, f, g;
    scanf("%lld %lld %lld %lld %lld %lld %lld", &a, &b, &c, &d, &e, &f, &g);
    ll sum = a + b + c + d + e + f + g;
    double P = 5040.0 * a / sum * b / (sum - 1) * c / (sum - 2) * d / (sum - 3) * e / (sum - 4) * f / (sum - 5) * g;
    printf("%.3lf", P);
    return 0;
}

P1654

分解期望+线性递推。

#include <bits/stdc++.h>

using namespace std;

typedef unsigned long long ll;

#define FR freopen("in.txt", "r", stdin)
#define FW freopen("out.txt", "w", stdout)

double p[100005];
double e3[100005];
double e2[100005];
double e1[100005];
double e0[100005];
double e[100005];

int main()
{
    int n;
    scanf("%d", &n);
    for (int i = 1; i <= n; i++)
        scanf("%lf", p + i);
    for (int i = 1; i <= n; i++)
    {
        e[i] = e3[i - 1] * p[i] * (1 - p[i + 1]) +
               3 * e2[i - 1] * p[i] * (1 - p[i + 1]) +
               3 * e1[i - 1] * p[i] * (1 - p[i + 1]) +
               e0[i - 1] * p[i] * (1 - p[i + 1]) +
               p[i] * (1 - p[i + 1]) * (1 - p[i - 1]);

        e3[i] = e3[i - 1] * p[i] +
                3 * e2[i - 1] * p[i] +
                3 * e1[i - 1] * p[i] +
                e0[i - 1] * p[i] +
                p[i] * (1 - p[i - 1]);

        e2[i] = e2[i - 1] * p[i] +
                2 * e1[i - 1] * p[i] +
                e0[i - 1] * p[i] +
                p[i] * (1 - p[i - 1]);

        e1[i] = e1[i - 1] * p[i] +
                e0[i - 1] * p[i] +
                p[i] * (1 - p[i - 1]);

        e0[i] = e0[i - 1] * p[i] +
                p[i] * (1 - p[i - 1]);
    }
    double ans = 0;
    for (int i = 1; i <= n; i++)
    {
        ans += e[i];
    }
    printf("%.1lf", ans);
    return 0;
}