美国伊利诺伊州疫情数据分析

美国伊利诺伊州疫情数据分析


伊利诺伊州目前总确诊病例已经突破70万,昨天一天报告的新增案例高达7759例(感恩节黑五),近两周内新增15万新确诊病例,可见目前整体形势不容乐观,甚至有恶化的倾向。但事实是否确实如此呢?我认为不能一概而论,我们需要做的是进一步细化相关数据,这样才能看到更多背后的信息。
首先来看一看按照郡县划分的各区域确诊总病例情况,可以看到,东北部和南部地区的数据呈现比较密集(图中圈的大小显示)。
The total number of confirmed cases in Illinois has now surpassed 700,000, with 7,759 new cases reported in one day yesterday (Thanksgiving Black Friday) and 150,000 new cases in the last two weeks, showing that the overall situation is not optimistic and even tends to worsen. But is this really the case? I don’t think we can generalize, but what we need to do is to further refine the data so that we can see more of the information behind it.
Taking a first look at the total number of confirmed cases by region by county, you can see that the Northeast and South regions show more dense data (shown by the size of the circles in the figure).
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接下来看看按照邮政编码的区域划分的可视化结果,这样划分比上图会更加细致。如此一看,芝加哥及周围地区无疑是全州最严重的地区(颜色较深),其次是西南部圣路易斯及周边地区。其余区域经历这样的细分后,明显可以感觉相对来说病情较轻。
本人目前位于zipcode 61874地区,总确诊人数311人,并且没有死亡病例。但也不要高兴的太早,我们应该关注的是各个区域的患病比例高低,而不是人数的多少。zipcode61874区域2018年人口统计近8150人,这样算来患病率约3.7%。
Next, take a look at the visualization of the results by zip code area, which is more detailed than the map above. At this glance, Chicago and the surrounding areas are undoubtedly the most severely affected (darker) areas of the state, followed by Southwest St. Louis and the surrounding areas. The rest of the state, when broken down in this way, clearly feels relatively mild.
I am currently located in zipcode 61874 with a total of 311 confirmed cases and no fatalities. But don’t get too excited, we should be focusing on the percentage of cases in each region, not the number of people. zipcode 61874 has a 2018 population of nearly 8,150, which works out to a prevalence rate of about 3.7%.
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接下来看看按照年龄都分类的确诊病例数据,如下图所示,伊利诺伊州20-29岁的确诊人数最多,小于20岁及30-59岁的各个分类数量相差不大,儿70岁以上的老年人确诊人数相对较少。
As shown in the chart below, Illinois has the highest number of diagnosed cases in the 20-29 year old age group, with a similar number in the younger 20 and 30-59 year old age groups, and a relatively low number of diagnosed cases in the 70+ year old age group.
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现在我们把目光放到死亡人数的数据表现上,可以看到中老年人的死亡病例显著高于其他年龄段人群,我认为这也是目前年轻人不太注意防范的主要原因,他们可能更多把新冠病毒看作是普通的传染性疾病。事实也确实如此,在规定必须佩戴口罩的公共场所,人们还是比较遵守规则的,但在户外或没有强制要求佩戴口罩的区域,人们大多并不会戴口罩。
Turning now to the performance of the data on the number of deaths, we can see that middle-aged and older adults are significantly more likely to die than any other age group. I think this is the main reason why young people are less aware of the need to take precautions and may see the new coronavirus as a common infectious disease. It is also true that in public places where masks are mandatory, people are more likely to follow the rules, but outdoors or in areas where masks are not mandatory, people mostly do not wear them.
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最后看看按照人种和性别分类的数据表现。抛开未填写人种信息的约三分之一数据(Left Blank的绿色部分),白色人种和西班牙裔占比明显较高,其次是黑色人种,而亚裔仅仅排到倒数第二位(甚至低于“其他”的分类标签)。而在性别方面,比例比较平均,女性略微高于男性。
A final look at the performance of the data by race and gender. Leaving aside about a third of the data where ethnicity information is not filled out (Left Blank’s green section), whites and Hispanics are significantly overrepresented, followed by blacks, while Asians are only in second to last place (even below the “Other” category label). In terms of gender, the percentages are more evenly split, with slightly more women than men.
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