2020数模A题及翻译

A题

英文：
Problem A: Moving North

Global ocean temperatures
affect the quality of habitats for certain ocean-dwelling species. When
temperature changes are too great for their continued thriving, these species
move to seek other habitats better suited to their present and future living
and reproductive success. One example of this is seen in the lobster population
of Maine, USA that is slowly migrating north to Canada where the lower ocean
temperatures provide a more suitable habitat. This geographic population shift
can significantly disrupt the livelihood of companies who depend on the
stability of ocean-dwelling species.

Your team has been hired as
consultants by a Scottish North Atlantic fishery management consortium. The
consortium wants to gain a better understanding of issues related to the
potential migration of Scottish herring and mackerel from their current
habitats near Scotland if and when global ocean temperatures increase. These
two fish species represent a significant economic contribution to the Scottish
fishing industry. Changes in population locations of herring and mackerel could
make it economically impractical for smaller Scotland-based fishing companies,
who use fishing vessels without on-board refrigeration, to harvest and deliver
fresh fish to markets in Scotland fishing ports.

Requirements

1. Build a mathematical
   model to identify the most likely locations for these two fish species over the
   next 50 years, assuming that water temperatures are going to change enough to
   cause the populations to move.

2. Based upon how rapidly
   the ocean water temperature change occurs, use your model to predict best case,
   worst case, and most likely elapsed time(s) until these populations will be too
   far away for small fishing companies to harvest if the small fishing companies
   continue to operate out of their current locations.

3. In light of your
   predictive analysis, should these small fishing companies make changes to their
   operations?

a. If yes, use your model
to identify and assess practical and economically attractive strategies for
small fishing companies. Your strategies should consider, but not be limited
to, realistic options that include:

-Relocating some or all of
a fishing company’s assets from a current location in a Scottish port to closer
to where both fish populations are moving;

-Using some proportion of
small fishing vessels capable of operating without land-based support for a
period of time while still ensuring the freshness and high quality of the
catch.

-Other options that your
team may identify and model.

b. If your team rejects the
need for any changes, justify reasons for your rejection based on your modeling
results as they relate to the assumptions your team has made.

4. Use your model to
   address how your proposal is affected if some proportion of the fishery moves
   into the territorial waters(sea) of another country.

5. In addition to your
   technical report, prepare a one-to two-page article for Hook Line and Sinker
   magazine to help fishermen understand the seriousness of the problem and how
   your proposed solution(s) will improve their future business prospects.

Your submission should
consist of:

· One-page Summary Sheet

· Table of Contents

· One-to Two-page Article

· Your solution of no more
than 20 pages, for a maximum of 24 pages with your summary, table of contents,
and article.

Note: Reference List and
any appendices do not count toward the page limit and should appear after your
completed solution. You should not make use of unauthorized images and
materials whose use is restricted by copyright laws. Ensure you cite the
sources for your ideas and the materials used in your report.

Glossary

Fishery: The collection of fish of a given species and the
area that they inhabit.

Habitat: The type of environment in which an organism or
group normally lives or occurs.

Small Fishing
Company: A company engaged in commercial fishing with
limited or very limited financial resources to invest in new equipment/vessels.

Territorial
Waters(sea):“as defined by the
1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, is a belt of coastal
waters extending at most 12 nautical miles (22.2 km;13.8 mi) from the
baseline(usually the mean low-water mark) of a coastal state. The territorial
sea is regarded as the sovereign territory of the state, although foreign
ships(military and civilian) are allowed innocent passage through it, or
transit passage for straits; this sovereignty also extends to the airspace over
and seabed below.”[ Territorial Waters.(n.d.). In Wikipedia. Retrieved
January 28,

2020, from https:/∥en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Territorial_waters.]

中文：

问题A：向北移动

全球海洋温度影响某些海洋生物的栖息地质量。当温度变化太大而无法持续生长时，这些生物便开始寻找其他更适合其目前和未来生活及生殖成功的栖息地。在美国缅因州的龙虾种群中就可以看到一个例子，该种群正缓慢地向北迁移到加拿大，那里较低的海洋温度提供了更合适的栖息地。这种地理上的人口转移会严重破坏依赖海洋生物物种稳定性的公司的生计。

您的团队已被苏格兰北大西洋渔业管理协会聘为顾问。如果全球海洋温度升高，该财团希望更好地了解与苏格兰鲱鱼和鲭鱼可能从苏格兰附近的当前栖息地迁移有关的问题。这两种鱼类代表了苏格兰渔业的重要经济贡献。鲱鱼和鲭鱼种群位置的变化可能使苏格兰小型捕捞公司在经济上不切实际，后者使用没有船上制冷的渔船来捕捞鲜鱼并将其运送到苏格兰渔港的市场。

要求

1.建立一个数学模型，以识别未来50年内这两种鱼类最可能的位置，假设水温将发生足够的变化以致种群迁移。

2.根据海水温度变化发生的速度，使用您的模型预测最佳情况，最坏情况以及最可能经过的时间，直到这些人口距离太远，小型捕鱼公司无法收获这些小型捕鱼公司
继续在当前位置之外运营。

3.根据您的预测分析，这些小型捕捞公司是否应该改变其运营？

A 如果是，请使用您的模型为小型捕捞公司识别和评估实用且经济上有吸引力的策略。
您的策略应考虑但不限于现实的选择，包括：

-将部分或全部捕鱼公司的资产从苏格兰港口的当前位置迁移到两个鱼类种群都移动的附近；

-使用一定比例的小型渔船，这些渔船可以在没有陆上支持的情况下运行一段时间，同时仍确保渔获物的新鲜度和高质量。

-您的团队可能会识别和建模的其他选项。

b。 如果您的团队拒绝进行任何更改，请根据建模结果来说明拒绝的原因，因为建模结果与您的团队所做的假设有关。

4.使用您的模型来解决如果有一部分渔业移入另一个国家的领海时您的建议受到的影响。

5.除了您的技术报告外，还要为Hook Line和Sinker杂志准备一份长达两页的文章，以帮助渔民了解问题的严重性以及您提出的解决方案将如何改善他们的未来业务前景。

您提交的内容应包括：

·一页摘要表

· 目录

·一页到两页的文章

·您的解决方案不超过20页，最多包含摘要，目录和文章的24页。

注意：参考列表和任何附录不计入页数限制，应在完成解决方案后出现。
您不应使用未经版权法限制使用的未经授权的图像和材料。 确保您引用了想法的来源和报告中使用的材料。

词汇表

渔业：特定种类鱼类及其栖息区域的集合。

栖息地：生物或团体正常生活或发生的环境类型。

小型捕捞公司：从事商业捕捞的公司，其资金来源非常有限或非常有限，只能投资新设备/船只。

领海（海洋）：“根据1982年《联合国海洋法公约》的定义，是指沿基线（通常是指平均低海平面 领海被视为该州的主权领土，尽管允许外国船只（军用和民用）无害通过该港口或通向海峡；该主权也延伸到该领空
和下面的海床。