贝叶斯网络实战

流程

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1. 数据清洗（Data Cleaning）& 特征工程（Feature Engineering）
2. 基本建模&评估（Basic Modeling & Evaluation）
3. 预测（Predict）

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1. 确定节点，确定以哪些特征（属性）为节点。
2. 确定结构，确定网络结构（拓扑）用以反应变量节点之间的依赖关系。
3. 确定参数，明确每条边上的条件概率。

节点选择： 这里还包括由特征工程特征选择之类的工作。当然若有专业知识的参与会得到更合理的特征选择。
网络结构&参数：

a. 专家设计
b. 数据生成

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数据清理

# dataset/titanic/train.csv
# dataset/titanic/test.csv
import pandas as pd

TRAIN = 'dataset/titanic/train.csv'
TEST = 'dataset/titanic/test.csv'

'''
PassengerId => 乘客ID
Pclass => 客舱等级(1/2/3等舱位)
Name => 乘客姓名
Sex => 性别 清洗成male=1 female=0
Age => 年龄 插补后分0,1,2 代表 幼年（0-15） 成年（15-55） 老年（55-）
SibSp => 兄弟姐妹数/配偶数
Parch => 父母数/子女数
Ticket => 船票编号
Fare => 船票价格 经聚类变0 1 2 代表少 多 很多
Cabin => 客舱号 清洗成有无此项，并发现有的生存率高
Embarked => 登船港口 清洗na,填S
'''

def girl(aa):
    if (aa.Age != 999) & (aa.Title == 'Miss') & (aa.Age <= 14):
        return 'Girl'
    elif (aa.Age == 999) & (aa.Title == 'Miss') & (aa.Parch != 0):
        return 'Girl'
    else:
        return aa.Title

def clean():
    # combine train and test set.
    train = pd.read_csv(TRAIN)
    test = pd.read_csv(TEST)
    full = pd.concat([train, test], ignore_index=True)
    full['Embarked'].fillna('S', inplace=True)
    full.Fare.fillna(full[full.Pclass == 3]['Fare'].median(), inplace=True)
    full.loc[full.Cabin.notnull(), 'Cabin'] = 1
    full.loc[full.Cabin.isnull(), 'Cabin'] = 0
    full.loc[full['Sex'] == 'male', 'Sex'] = 1
    full.loc[full['Sex'] == 'female', 'Sex'] = 0

    full['Title'] = full['Name'].apply(lambda x: x.split(',')[1].split('.')[0].strip())
    nn = {'Capt': 'Rareman', 'Col': 'Rareman', 'Don': 'Rareman', 'Dona': 'Rarewoman',
          'Dr': 'Rareman', 'Jonkheer': 'Rareman', 'Lady': 'Rarewoman', 'Major': 'Rareman',
          'Master': 'Master', 'Miss': 'Miss', 'Mlle': 'Rarewoman', 'Mme': 'Rarewoman',
          'Mr': 'Mr', 'Mrs': 'Mrs', 'Ms': 'Rarewoman', 'Rev': 'Mr', 'Sir': 'Rareman',
          'the Countess': 'Rarewoman'}
    full.Title = full.Title.map(nn)
    # assign the female 'Dr' to 'Rarewoman'
    full.loc[full.PassengerId == 797, 'Title'] = 'Rarewoman'
    full.Age.fillna(999, inplace=True)

    full['Title'] = full.apply(girl, axis=1)

    Tit = ['Mr', 'Miss', 'Mrs', 'Master', 'Girl', 'Rareman', 'Rarewoman']
    for i in Tit:
        full.loc[(full.Age == 999) & (full.Title == i), 'Age'] = full.loc[full.Title == i, 'Age'].median()

    full.loc[full['Age'] <= 15, 'Age'] = 0
    full.loc[(full['Age'] > 15) & (full['Age'] < 55), 'Age'] = 1
    full.loc[full['Age'] >= 55, 'Age'] = 2
    full['Pclass'] = full['Pclass'] - 1
    from sklearn.cluster import KMeans

    Fare = full['Fare'].values
    Fare = Fare.reshape(-1, 1)
    km = KMeans(n_clusters=3).fit(Fare)  # 将数据集分为2类
    Fare = km.fit_predict(Fare)
    full['Fare'] = Fare
    full['Fare'] = full['Fare'].astype(int)
    full['Age'] = full['Age'].astype(int)
    full['Cabin'] = full['Cabin'].astype(int)
    full['Pclass'] = full['Pclass'].astype(int)
    full['Sex'] = full['Sex'].astype(int)
    # full['Survived']=full['Survived'].astype(int)
    dataset = full.drop(columns=['Embarked', 'Name', 'Parch', 'PassengerId', 'SibSp', 'Ticket', 'Title'])
    dataset.dropna(inplace=True)
    dataset['Survived'] = dataset['Survived'].astype(int)
    # dataset=pd.concat([dataset, pd.DataFrame(columns=['Pri'])])
    train = dataset[:800]
    test = dataset[800:]
    return train,test
    '''
    最后保留如下项目,并切出800的训练集：
    Pclass => 客舱等级(0/1/2等舱位)
    Sex => 性别 male=1 female=0
    Age => 年龄 插补后分0,1,2 代表 幼年（0-15） 成年（15-55） 老年（55-）
    Fare => 船票价格 经聚类变0 1 2 代表少 多 很多
    Cabin => 客舱号 清洗成有无此项，并发现有的生存率高
    '''

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结构搭建，参数学习

from pgmpy.models import BayesianModel
from pgmpy.estimators import BayesianEstimator


# 模型建立
def buildStructure():
    #model = BayesianModel([('Age', 'Pri'), ('Sex', 'Pri'),('Pri','Survived'),('Fare','Pclass'),('Pclass','Survived'),('Cabin','Survived')])
    model = BayesianModel([('Age', 'Survived'),
                           ('Sex', 'Survived'),
                           ('Fare', 'Pclass'),
                           ('Pclass', 'Survived'),
                           ('Cabin', 'Survived')])
    # (‘Age’, ‘Survived’)表示Age指向Survived
    return model


# 参数学习
def learnParmater(model,train):
    # default equivalent_sample_size=5
    model.fit(train, estimator=BayesianEstimator, prior_type="BDeu")


# 预测函数
def predict(model, test):
    predict_data=test.drop(columns=['Survived'],axis=1)
    y_pred = model.predict(predict_data)
    # print(y_pred)
    print(type(y_pred['Survived'].tolist()),type(test['Survived']))
    out = y_pred['Survived'].tolist()
    tes = test['Survived'].tolist()
    count =0
    for ind in range(0,len(y_pred['Survived'].tolist())):
        if out[ind] == tes[ind]:
            count = count + 1
    print(count/len(test))

调用

from dataClean import clean
from structure import buildStructure,learnParmater,predict

# 数据清理，特征选择
train, test = clean()
# 结构建立
model = buildStructure()
# 参数学习
learnParmater(model,train)


#输出节点信息
print(model.nodes())
#输出依赖关系
print(model.edges())
#查看某节点概率分布
print(model.get_cpds('Pclass').values)

# 预测
predict(model, test)

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参考1
参考2
titanic数据

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问题

使用pgmpy报错 cannot import name ‘BDeuScore’ from ‘pgmpy.estimators.BDeuScore’
解决方案