《Fundamentals of Project Management 4th Edition》 读书笔记 第五章 建立项目风险计划

CHAPTER 5 Creating the Project Risk Plan

建立项目风险计划

 

风险管理是系统地识别、分析和应对项目风险。也就是说采取正式的方式来管理风险。

Risk management is the systematic processof identifying, analyzing, and responding to project risk. Systematic is a key wordhere, as many project managers attempt to deal with risks on an informal basiswith little or no prior planning.

 

风险计划使PM可以前瞻性地对付那些可能让项目失败的事情。提前应对风险比风险变成损失后再应对要代价小得多。

A formal, comprehensive project risk planallows the project manager to be proactive regarding the innumerable thingsthat can and do go wrong with a project. Without this plan, you are forced tomanage reactively when things go wrong—easily the most expensive approach.

 

你和你的团队要常常问“什么可能出错？”，并以此做出应急计划。

You and your team members should take astrategic approach to “what can go wrong” and begin laying the foundation forthe detailed plan to follow. Without this foundation, projects often experiencethe negative impact of risks that become reality, risks that might have beenprevented or mitigated through contingency planning. This is reactive behavior,and you must live in the proactive world to be successful as a project manager.

 

 

The Six-Step Process 六步法

 

列出风险清单

Step 1: Make a List

 

判断发生的可能性和负面影响程度

Steps 2 & 3: Determine the Probabilityof Risk Occurrence and Negative Impact

How probable is it that each risk willbecome a reality?

If the risk becomes a reality, how badlywill it damage the project? This is the next question that needs to be askedand answered.

 

防止或者缓和风险

Step 4: Prevent or Mitigate the Risk

 

建立应急措施

Step 5: Consider Contingencies

 

定义触发应急计划的触发点

Step 6: Establish the Trigger Point

The trigger point is the point at which therisk becomes enough of a reality that the project manager needs to trigger thecontingency.

Trigger too soon and you will probablyspend time, effort, or money for no good reason. Trigger too late and you mayend up experiencing the full impact of the occurrence, with little value addedby implementing the contingency.

If the contingency affects a task or taskson the critical path (see Chapter 7), additional buffer days should beconsidered.

 

如果没有方法来应对风险，那么风险计划会失去效果。所以要建立储备以应对风险，或者用来扑捉机会。

The most comprehensive risk plan can becompromised if you realize that you do not have the time or means to take appropriateaction. Establishing reserves enables you to leverage the plan to its fullestpotential. The best-laid plans are impotent without the time and/or budget toallow for effective implementation. As a result, you need to establishcontingency and management reserves.

 

 

应急储备是用于应对那些已识别出的风险。

Contingency reserves are designated amountsof time and/or budget to account for risks to the project that have beenidentified and actively accepted. They are created to cover known risks to theproject.

 

管理性储备用于应对那些未识别出的风险。

Management reserves are designated amountsof time and/or budget included in your plan to account for risks to the projectthat cannot be predicted. Sometimes you don’t know what you don’t know.Management reserves are created to cover unknown risks to the project.