扣除价格因素与剔除季节性因素：统计数据中的“真实”增长（中英双语）

扣除价格因素与剔除季节性因素：统计数据中的“真实”增长

在经济统计分析中，我们经常会听到“扣除价格因素”和“剔除季节性因素”这两个概念。这两者都是为了排除外部干扰因素，真实反映经济活动的增长情况。它们分别针对价格波动和季节性波动，通过一定的统计方法进行调整，提供更加准确的经济数据。在这篇博客中，我们将详细介绍这两个概念，并结合实例说明它们的作用和实现方法。

一、什么是“扣除价格因素”？

“扣除价格因素”通常指的是去除价格波动对某个经济指标（如工业生产、GDP等）的影响，旨在真实反映实际增长率。经济活动的名义增长受价格波动的影响，若不剔除价格因素，我们将无法准确判断实际产出的增长情况。

举个例子：

假设2024年12月，某工业部门的总产值为1000亿元，而价格上涨了5%。如果仅从名义数据来看，12月的工业产值增长了10%（即增长100亿元）。然而，5%的价格上涨已经对这100亿元产生了影响，所以我们需要剔除价格因素来计算实际增值。

实际增值 = 1000亿元 ÷ 1.05 = 952.38亿元
实际增速 = (952.38 - 900) / 900 ≈ 5.8%

这样，扣除价格因素后，得出的5.8%的增速更能真实反映该行业的实际生产增长。

二、什么是“剔除季节性因素”？

“剔除季节性因素”是指通过调整季节性波动（如假期、气候变化等）对经济数据的影响，使得数据能反映出长期的趋势而非短期波动。许多行业，如零售业、农业等，都会受到季节变化的影响。比如，每年的春节期间，零售销售通常会有一个显著的增长，但这个增长并不代表经济的长期趋势，因此需要进行季节性调整。

举个例子：

假设2024年12月，某行业的工业增加值环比增长了0.64%。这个数据可能包含了年末需求的提升（如节假日因素）。然而，这种季节性波动并不反映该行业的实际生产增长。如果剔除季节性因素，可能调整后的环比增速会是0.46%，这就消除了年末的节假日效应，更能反映长期的增长趋势。

三、如何进行“扣除价格因素”和“剔除季节性因素”？

1. 扣除价格因素：

扣除价格因素通常使用实际价格指数（如消费者价格指数CPI、生产者价格指数PPI）进行调整。通过将名义增长数据除以价格指数，得到实际增长数据。

• 名义增长率：= (本期值 - 上期值) / 上期值
• 实际增长率 = (名义增长率 - 价格变化率)

例子：
如果某国的GDP名义增速为6%，而该国的CPI增速为2%，那么该国的实际GDP增速就是：
实际GDP增速 = 6% - 2% = 4%

2. 剔除季节性因素：

季节性调整通常使用统计方法如X-12-ARIMA、TRAMO/SEATS等，或者通过简单的平滑技术来去除季节性波动。这些方法通过统计建模，分析不同时间周期内的季节性波动，并调整数据，以便看到更加稳定的趋势。

• 季节性调整：通过将季节性影响从数据中剔除，得到的调整数据可以更好地反映经济活动的长期趋势。
• X-12-ARIMA：这种方法基于时间序列模型，可以自动识别季节性模式并进行调整，广泛应用于美国的官方经济统计数据。这种做法的原理请参考笔者的另一篇博客：X-12-ARIMA模型：季节性调整的核心工具 （中英双语）

四、国际实践：如何在美国和其他国家应用？

1. 美国的做法：

美国在经济统计数据的发布过程中，广泛使用季节性调整方法，尤其是在就业、零售销售和GDP等重要经济指标上。美国劳工统计局（BLS）和美国经济分析局（BEA）都会使用X-12-ARIMA模型对数据进行季节性调整。例如，美国的失业率和非农就业数据都会在每月发布时进行季节性调整，以反映实际的经济趋势。

2. 欧洲的做法：

欧洲国家和欧盟也使用类似的季节性调整方法，但不同的是，他们使用TRAMO/SEATS模型，这是欧洲国家常用的一种季节性调整方法。该方法同样通过时间序列分析，去除季节性影响，特别适用于经济指标的长期趋势分析。

3. 中国的做法：

中国的统计局在发布主要经济数据时，同样会进行季节性调整，尤其是在年度和季度的GDP、工业增加值等数据中。中国统计局通常会使用类似X-12-ARIMA的模型，或者根据国内经济特点进行调整，确保数据能更准确反映经济活动的实际变化。

五、总结：如何解读数据中的“真实增长”？

扣除价格因素和剔除季节性因素是确保经济数据反映实际经济活动的关键方法。通过这些调整，我们可以避免因价格波动或季节性波动带来的干扰，看到更加稳定、真实的增长趋势。

• 扣除价格因素有助于剔除因物价波动对经济数据的影响，帮助我们更好地判断实际生产或经济增长的情况。
• 剔除季节性因素能够消除由于季节性波动引起的短期变化，使得经济数据能够更好地反映长期趋势。

无论是中国、美国还是其他国家，这两种方法在经济分析中都有着不可或缺的作用，它们帮助决策者、研究人员以及公众更清晰地理解经济现象，做出更加科学的决策。

Removing Price Effects and Seasonality: Understanding “Real” Growth in Economic Data

In economic statistical analysis, we often hear the terms “removing price effects” and “adjusting for seasonality.” These two concepts are used to eliminate external factors that can distort data, allowing for a more accurate reflection of economic growth. They are essential for providing insights into the actual trends in economic activity by eliminating noise caused by price fluctuations and seasonal variations. In this blog, we will explore these concepts in detail, explain how they are implemented, and examine how they are applied in different countries, such as the United States and China, with examples to illustrate their impact.

1. What Does “Removing Price Effects” Mean?

“Removing price effects” refers to the process of eliminating the impact of price changes on an economic indicator, such as industrial production or GDP. This is done to better reflect the actual growth rate, without the distortions caused by price fluctuations. Economic growth, in nominal terms, is often influenced by changes in prices, and removing these effects allows for a more accurate assessment of the real output growth.

Example:

Let’s say the total industrial output in December 2024 is 1000 billion yuan, and the price index has increased by 5%. If we look only at the nominal growth, December’s industrial output would have grown by 10% (i.e., an increase of 100 billion yuan). However, the 5% price increase already contributes to that 100 billion yuan, so we need to remove the price factor to calculate the actual value added.

Actual Value Added = 1000 billion yuan ÷ 1.05 (to remove the 5% price increase) = 952.38 billion yuan
Actual Growth Rate = (952.38 - 900) / 900 ≈ 5.8%

After removing the price effect, the growth rate of 5.8% better reflects the actual production increase in the industry.

2. What Does “Adjusting for Seasonality” Mean?

“Adjusting for seasonality” refers to the statistical process of removing seasonal fluctuations, such as those caused by holidays or weather changes, from economic data. These seasonal variations are common in industries like retail, agriculture, and manufacturing. For example, retail sales often spike around holidays like Christmas, but this increase doesn’t necessarily indicate a long-term trend. Seasonal adjustment helps to smooth out such fluctuations, revealing the true underlying trends in economic activity.

Example:

Suppose in December 2024, an industry shows a month-on-month growth of 0.64%. This growth may include the seasonal boost from end-of-year demand (such as holiday shopping). However, this seasonal effect does not reflect the industry’s actual production growth. After adjusting for seasonality, the revised month-on-month growth might be 0.46%, which better captures the long-term trend of the industry’s growth.

3. How Are “Removing Price Effects” and “Adjusting for Seasonality” Done?

1. Removing Price Effects:

Removing price effects is usually done by using real price indices, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or Producer Price Index (PPI). By dividing the nominal growth data by the price index, we obtain the actual growth data.

• Nominal Growth Rate = (Current Value - Previous Value) / Previous Value
• Actual Growth Rate = (Nominal Growth Rate - Price Change Rate)

Example:
If a country’s GDP nominal growth is 6% and the CPI growth is 2%, the actual GDP growth would be:
Actual GDP Growth = 6% - 2% = 4%

2. Adjusting for Seasonality:

Seasonal adjustments are typically done using statistical methods such as X-12-ARIMA, TRAMO/SEATS, or simpler smoothing techniques. These methods analyze the seasonal patterns within a time series and remove the seasonal effects, allowing for a clearer view of the underlying long-term trends.

• Seasonal Adjustment: By removing seasonal impacts from the data, the adjusted data can better reflect the true economic activity.
• X-12-ARIMA: A widely used seasonal adjustment method, especially in the United States, which automatically detects and adjusts for seasonal patterns in economic data.

4. How Is It Done Internationally?

1. The United States’ Approach:

The United States uses seasonal adjustment methods extensively, particularly for important economic indicators such as employment, retail sales, and GDP. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) use X-12-ARIMA to adjust for seasonality in key data. For example, the monthly unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls are adjusted for seasonality to better reflect the true underlying trends in the labor market.

2. European Approach:

European countries, as well as the European Union, also use similar seasonal adjustment methods. However, they tend to favor the TRAMO/SEATS method, which is a statistical model developed for time series data, particularly in European countries. Like X-12-ARIMA, TRAMO/SEATS helps to identify and eliminate seasonal effects, allowing a better understanding of long-term trends.

3. China’s Approach:

In China, seasonal adjustment is also applied to major economic data releases, such as GDP and industrial output. The National Bureau of Statistics of China typically uses methods similar to X-12-ARIMA or adjusts based on domestic economic characteristics to ensure that data reflects true economic activity rather than seasonal fluctuations.

5. Conclusion: How to Interpret “Real Growth” in Data?

Removing price effects and adjusting for seasonality are essential methods for ensuring that economic data accurately reflects real economic activity. These adjustments help policymakers, researchers, and the public better understand the true performance of the economy by eliminating distortions caused by external factors like price changes and seasonal variations.

• Removing Price Effects: Helps remove the impact of price fluctuations, allowing us to more accurately assess the real growth in production or economic activity.
• Adjusting for Seasonality: Eliminates short-term seasonal fluctuations, allowing data to better reflect long-term economic trends.

Whether in China, the United States, or other countries, these methods play an indispensable role in economic analysis, providing a clearer picture of economic performance and helping decision-makers make more informed choices.

后记

2025年1月17日14点13分于上海，在GPT4o大模型辅助下完成。