置信区间的置信区间_什么是置信区间，为什么人们使用它们？

置信区间的置信区间

I’m going to try something a little different today, in which I combine two (completely unrelated) topics I love talking about, and hopefully create something that is interesting and educational.

今天，我将尝试一些与众不同的东西，其中我结合了两个我喜欢谈论的主题(完全不相关)，并希望创建一些有趣且具有教育意义的东西。

…Actually, scratch that. If you’ve ever read anything I’ve written on Medium, this is actually pretty on brand (Explaining Linear Regression to Michael Scott, anyone?) In today’s article, I am going to explain what confidence intervals are, how to calculate them, and how to interpret them — all through the use case of Harry Potter’s infamous Divination teacher.

…实际上，把它刮掉。 如果您曾经读过我在Medium上写过的任何文章，那么实际上这在品牌上是很​​不错的( 向Michael Scott解释线性回归 ，有人吗？)在今天的文章中，我将解释什么是置信区间，如何计算它们，以及如何解释它们-全部以哈利·波特臭名昭著的占卜老师为例。

For those of you who are unfamiliar with Harry Potter and Sybill Trelawney (which I’m assuming is nobody currently reading this, because it means you’ve been without internet for 20+ years), she is a witch who can “see into the future” through 99% educated guessing and 1% true prophecies. Confidence intervals, at least in my opinion, are pretty similar: making educated guesses about entire populations based on a small set of observations. However, instead of crystal balls and tea leaves, our tools are standard deviations and sample means.

对于不熟悉哈利·波特(Harry Potter)和西比尔·特劳拉尼(Sybill Trelawney)(我认为目前没有人读这本书，因为这意味着您已经有20多年没有互联网了)的那些人，她是一个巫婆，可以“观察未来”通过99％的有根据的猜测和1％的真实预言。 至少在我看来，置信区间非常相似：根据一小组观察结果对整个人群进行有根据的猜测。 但是，我们的工具不是标准的球和茶叶，而是水晶球和茶叶。

什么是置信区间，为什么人们使用它们？ (What is a Confidence Interval, and Why do People Use Them?)

Professor Trelawney has had thousands of students during her tenure at Hogwarts, and Dumbledore is doing an audit of her work to see how accurate she really is at predicting the future. However, Dumbledore is a busy guy (trying to hunt down Horcruxes and run a school) and can’t reach out to every student who has ever taken Trelawney’s class. So instead, he randomly selects a sample of 300 previous students and asks them what percentage of her predictions have come true so far.

特里劳妮教授她在霍格沃茨任职期间，已经有成千上万的学生，和邓布利多正在做她的工作进行审核，看她真的是在预测未来如何准确。 但是，邓布利多是个忙碌的人(试图追捕Horcruxes并经营一所学校)，无法接触到曾经参加过Trelawney课的每个学生。 因此，他取而代之的是，从300名以前的学生中随机选择一个样本，并询问他们到目前为止，她的预测中有多少百分比是正确的。

Left skewed distribution of Trelawney’s prediction accuracy. Image courtesy of author.

Trelawney的预测准确性的左偏分布。 图片由作者提供。

Dumbledore collects the responses and finds that the distribution of responses is left skewed, which means students are more likely to find Trelawney’s predictions to be inaccurate t