ios如何介入苹果广告_苹果公司的iOS 14广告股票面临新的重大挑战

ios如何介入苹果广告

This earnings season promises to be a wild ride across the tech sector as initial impact from the coronavirus will be reported while a few outliers will seem impervious. Ad-tech stocks are especially vulnerable to other sectors with Google expected to have its first decline year-over-year in company history. Facebook boycotts that came late in June could affect future quarters. We’ve seen Twitter report 23% lower revenue and entertain new methods of monetization. However, these well-known risks will be rivaled if not exceeded by the effects of the lesser-known announcement from Apple last month in regards to the required opt-in for the ID for Advertisers (IDFA).

由于将报道冠状病毒的初步影响，而一些离群值似乎不可渗透，因此本财年有望在整个科技行业大放异彩。 广告技术类股票尤其容易受到其他行业的冲击，谷歌有望在公司历史上首次出现同比下滑。 6月下旬的Facebook抵制行动可能会影响未来几个季度。 我们已经看到Twitter报告收入降低了23％，并采用了新的货币化方法。 但是，如果不超过苹果上个月宣布的关于广告商ID(IDFA)要求加入的鲜为人知的影响，这些众所周知的风险将与之抗衡。

The IDFA is a number tied to the device that allows ad exchanges to track user interactions and behavior. The primary function is very similar to cookies in that it helps ad companies store data profiles and preferences for personalized messaging, regardless of which device you are logged into. In addition to targeting, the IDFA also helps with attribution and measurement.

IDFA是与设备绑定的数字，该数字允许广告交易跟踪用户的互动和行为。 主要功能与Cookie十分相似，它可以帮助广告公司存储数据配置文件和个性化消息传递的首选项，而不管您登录的设备是什么。 除了定位外，IDFA还有助于归因和评估。

If you’ve never heard of the IDFA or are not aware that a number is assigned to your iOS device to help track you, it’s because this has been opt-out in the past and been hidden inconspicuously in your Settings. In the upcoming release of iOS 14 in September, Apple will make this an opt-in for every single application. This means a message will appear for every application using a mobile device ID asking for permission.

如果您从未听说过IDFA，或者不知道已为您的iOS设备分配了一个号码来帮助您进行跟踪，那是因为该号码过去已退出，并且在您的“设置”中不显眼。 在9月即将发布的iOS 14版本中，Apple将使其成为每个应用程序的可选组件。 这意味着将使用移动设备ID向每个应用程序显示一条消息，询问许可。

Pictured above: Apple will require opt-in permission to track for displaying targeted ads, sharing device location, sharing a list of emails, ad IDs or other IDs used to retarget and/or placing a third-party SDK in the app that combines user data from your app with user data to target advertising. See the full list here on Developer.Apple.Com

上图： Apple将需要选择加入权限才能跟踪以显示目标广告，共享设备位置，共享电子邮件列表，广告ID或其他ID的列表，这些ID用于在结合用户的应用中重新定位和/或放置第三方SDK应用中的数据以及用户数据来定位广告。 在 Developer.Apple.Com 上查看完整列表。

Below, I go over the background that led to Apple’s decision and the public companies this might affect. As noted below, this should affect companies who offer mobile targeting, such as Google, Facebook, Twitter/MoPub and The Trade Desk. In the interim, it could also affect any applications that use aggressive growth tactics. This list is harder to identify, but Uber and Lyft, for example, are known for spending heavily on user acquisition to drive installs.

下面，我回顾了导致苹果做出决定的背景以及可能影响苹果上市的公司。 如下所述，这将影响提供移动定位的公司，例如Google，Facebook，Twitter / MoPub和The Trade Desk。 在此期间，它也可能影响使用积极增长策略的任何应用程序。 此列表更难识别，但例如，Uber和Lyft因在吸引用户方面花费大量资金来推动安装而闻名。

For instance, Snap beat on revenue recently yet some of this beat came from direct response ads, such as TikTok driving user acquisition on mobile. In this case, there will be less information about who is taking an action if Snap users do not opt-in on the warning screen. Twitter, as well, pointed towards direct response ads holding up revenue during the pandemic while brand ads have weakened. Yet again, direct response has a new and very serious obstacle.

例如，Snap最近在收入方面取得了突破，但其中一部分来自直接响应广告，例如TikTok推动了移动用户的获取。 在这种情况下，如果Snap用户未在警告屏幕上选择加入，则有关谁将采取措施的信息将更少。 Twitter也指出，在大流行期间， 直接响应广告会保持收入增长，而品牌广告却会减弱。 再者，直接React有一个新的非常严重的障碍。

The silence on this topic from financial analysts on Twitter’s earnings call when many ad-tech companies including two of the world’s most valuable companies rely on the IDFA for a sizable chunk of revenue is odd to say the least. AppsFlyer places mobile app install spend at $80 billion in 2020 and estimates this will reach $118 billion by 2022. This is compared to the total mobile advertising industry worth $241 billion in 2019 and $368 billion in 2022.

金融分析师在Twitter的财报电话会议上对这一话题保持沉默，当时包括世界上最有价值的两家公司在内的许多广告技术公司都依靠IDFA来获得可观的收入，这至少可以说是奇怪的。 AppsFlyer估计，到2020年 ，移动应用安装支出将达到800亿美元 ，预计到2022年将达到1,180 亿美元 。 相比之下，2019年移动广告行业的总产值为2410亿美元，2022年为3680亿美元。

The changes will not take effect until September with most devices running the iOS update by October, so no financial impact will be seen until Q4. However, if brand ad spend remains low from the pandemic, and direct response campaigns will now be blind due to an aggressive move against mobile ad targeting, then investors should expect a significant shift in the ad industry by the latter part of the year.

这些更改要到9月才会生效，因为大多数设备在10月之前都将运行iOS更新， 因此直到第四季度才会看到财务影响 。 但是，如果由于流行病而导致品牌广告支出仍然很低，并且由于针对移动广告定位的积极行动，现在直接响应活动将是盲目的，那么投资者应该预计今年下半年广告行业将发生重大变化。

I first covered this in October for MarketWatch with the article, “Governments can’t stop Google and Facebook but Apple can.” The changes to the IDFA are being done under a privacy guise, however, it could be an attempt for Apple to reclaim valuable revenue streams from its ecosystem as iPhone penetration is maxed out. How this would work is not evident right now but its unlikely that a $118 billion market in iOS app install spend has gone unnoticed.

我首先在10月为MarketWatch撰写了这篇文章， 标题为“政府不能阻止Google和Facebook，但苹果可以阻止。” IDFA的更改是在隐私的幌子下进行的，但是，随着iPhone渗透率的最大化，苹果可能试图从其生态系统中收回宝贵的收入来源。 目前尚不知道如何运作，但iOS应用安装支出1180亿美元的市场不太可能被忽视。

Apple and its operating system is the most important governor in the mobile industry with two-thirds of mobile acquisition spend compared to Android’s one-third. If Apple is playing the long-game on reclaiming iOS attribution and measurement to generate revenue, then Google, Facebook, Twitter, Snap and The Trade Desk have plenty to worry about as Apple can undeniably claim this turf.

苹果及其操作系统是移动行业最重要的州长，其移动购置支出的三分之二是Android的三分之一。 如果苹果公司在争取iOS归因和衡量指标以产生收入方面一直处于漫长的过程，那么Google，Facebook，Twitter，Snap和The Trade Desk会担心很多，因为苹果公司可以无可否认地声称这是一块地盘。

苹果的立场背景 (Background on Apple’s Stance)

Apple rarely markets at tech events outside of its own conferences, such as the Worldwide Developers Conference held annually in June. A very rare exception to this policy was made at CES 2019 in Las Vegas when large billboards hung outside the entrance stating, “What happens on your iPhone, stays on your iPhone.”

苹果很少在自己的会议之外进行技术活动的市场营销，例如每年6月举行的全球开发者会议。 这项政策的一个非常罕见的例外情况是在拉斯维加斯举行的CES 2019上，入口处悬挂着大型广告牌，上面写着：“ iPhone上发生的事情，留在iPhone上。”

This was a nod towards Facebook, who Tim Cook has publicly criticized, with its software development kit “Audience Network” installed in 300,000 applications on iOS and Android combined and has seen nearly 200 billion downloads. Google’s AdMob is even worse with installation in 1.5 million applications and 375 billion downloads. (Now consider that users did not authorize or download this software on purpose!)

这是对Facebook的致敬，Tim Cook公开批评了Facebook，其软件开发套件“ Audience Network”安装在iOS和Android上的300,000个应用程序中 ，总共下载了近2000亿次。 谷歌的AdMob甚至更糟糕，因为它安装了150万个应用程序，下载量达到3750亿次。 (现在请考虑用户未故意授权或下载此软件！)

Photo from CES 2019: Source Beth Kindig

CES 2019的照片：来源 Beth Kindig

The advertisement was a bold and clear statement on Apple’s stance. Yet, anyone in ad-tech could tell you that what happens on the iPhone most certainly does not stay on the iPhone. Mobile has become a free-for-all in data collection over the past ten years. The device leaks volumes of information through software development kits (SDKs) installed inside every application. Most applications have 18 SDKs, which extends beyond Facebook and Google to include a mix and match of ad software companies although the most pervasive being Google and Facebook who are inside the far majority due to the depth of their data for cross-targeting.

该广告是对苹果立场的大胆而明确的声明。 但是，任何从事广告技术的人都可以告诉您，iPhone上发生的事情肯定不会留在iPhone上。 在过去的十年中，移动已成为一种免费的数据收集方式。 该设备通过安装在每个应用程序内部的软件开发套件(SDK)泄漏大量信息。 大多数应用程序都有18个SDK，扩展到Facebook和Google之外，包括广告软件公司的混搭，尽管最普遍的是Google和Facebook，它们由于交叉定位的数据深度而在绝大多数内。

We’ve seen Congress attempt to understand Facebook’s business model (which is not simply social media — you can view my past coverage here around Cambridge Analytica, the Q2 2018 earnings miss, and why free cash flow isn’t enough), we’ve seen the European Union blast anti-trust fines of up to $5 billion and also enforce the General Data Privacy Regulations for their citizens (you can view my previous coverage on this here). These efforts have proven futile software remains pervasive across applications. The conclusion in my October analysis is that privacy depends on an equal and opposite force, and there is only one who remains advertising-free who can possibly take on this challenge, which is Apple.

我们已经看到国会试图理解Facebook的商业模式(这不仅仅是社交媒体-您可以在Cambridge Analytica上查看我过去的报道， 2018年第二季度的收益缺失以及自由现金流不足的原因 )，我们已经看到欧盟对反托拉斯处以最高50亿美元的罚款，并且还对其公民执行了《通用数据隐私条例》( 您可以在此处查看我以前的报道 )。 这些努力已证明，无用的软件仍然在各个应用程序中普遍存在。 我在十月份的分析中得出的结论是，隐私取决于平等和相反的力量，只有一个保持免广告的人可以应对这一挑战，那就是苹果。

The concept of Apple pioneering privacy at the client level is not new. Apple began to restrict tracking on the Safari browser through iterations of Intelligent Tracking Prevention (ITP) from 2017 to 2019. As I covered previously in depth, Apple implemented strict requirements, such as having a relationship with the customer within the last 24 hours to place a cookie, and companies have continued to find loop holes.

苹果在客户端级别上开拓隐私的概念并不新鲜。 从2017年到2019年，Apple开始通过迭代智能跟踪预防( ITP )来限制对Safari浏览器的跟踪。正如我之前深入介绍的那样 ，Apple实施了严格的要求，例如在过去24小时内与客户保持联系Cookie，公司也继续发现漏洞。

Unlike cookies on the web, where there is a tag on the browser, mobile identifiers have much stronger tracking capabilities. Apple’s IDFA enables the following: user tracking, marketing measurement, attribution, ad targeting, ad monetization, programmatic advertising including DSPs, SSPs and exchanges, device graphs, retargeting of individuals and audiences.

与Web上的cookie不同，在浏览器上有一个标签，移动标识符具有更强大的跟踪功能。 Apple的IDFA 支持以下功能 ：用户跟踪，市场评估，归因，广告定位，广告获利，程序化广告(包括DSP，SSP和交换)，设备图，个人和受众重新定位。

What investors may not realize is these advertising cash machines are largely dependent on tracking software for the high CPMS (cost per thousand views) and CPIs (cost per install) they charge because they can track actions on a granular level even days after a mobile user has seen an advertisement. The mobile users are not aware they are being tracked by many companies they do not have a first-party relationship with (but the developer or publisher does). These developers and publishers must now obtain permission. Without permission, the inventory on mobile becomes less valuable.

投资者可能没有意识到，这些广告提款机很大程度上依赖于跟踪软件来收取较高的CPMS(每千次观看费用)和CPI(每次安装费用)，因为即使在移动用户使用数天后，它们也可以精确地跟踪操作看过广告 移动用户并不知道他们与许多没有第一方关系的公司都在跟踪他们(但开发者或发布者却有)。 这些开发人员和发布者现在必须获得许可。 未经许可，移动设备上的广告资源价值将降低。

Mobile applications, such as Spotify, Uber, Lyft, and mobile gaming, for example, are also dependent on the ability to track and identify cohorts for user acquisition. This is one reason we see the top line grow rapidly in ridesharing at the expense of the bottom line; these companies are crunching customer acquisition costs and lifetime value (LTV) across specific demographics and then using lookalike modeling to target the demographics with the best LTV.

例如，诸如Spotify，Uber，Lyft和移动游戏之类的移动应用程序还依赖于跟踪和识别同类群组以获取用户的能力。 这是我们看到共享乘用车的顶线Swift增长的原因之一； 这些公司正在处理特定人群的客户获取成本和生命周期价值(LTV)，然后使用相似的建模方法以最佳LTV为目标人群。

The ad exchanges who deliver this are paid a handsome premium. Google and Facebook can clearly deliver this as they sit on mountains of data but there are others who use unique identifiers in a similar purpose to target and track across multiple devices, such as The Trade Desk with a unique identifier that will likely come under this restriction: “Sharing a list of emails, advertising IDs, or other IDs with a third-party advertising network that uses that information to retarget those users in other developers’ apps or to find similar users.”

投放广告的广告交易商将获得可观的溢价。 Google和Facebook可以在大量数据上清晰地实现这一点，但也有一些人使用相似目的的唯一标识符来定位和跟踪多个设备，例如The Trade Desk，其唯一标识符可能会受到此限制。 ：“ 与第三方广告网络共享电子邮件，广告ID或其他ID的列表，该广告网络使用该信息在其他开发人员的应用程序中将这些用户重新定位或查找相似的用户。”

Twitter/MoPub will also be affected as MoPub’s software is inside over 60,000 apps across both iOS and Android. Snap will be to some degree as direct response is critical to the company’s revenue.

Twitter / MoPub也将受到影响，因为MoPub的软件包含在iOS和Android的6万多个应用程序中。 Snap在某种程度上将是直接响应对公司收入至关重要的原因。

The opt-in changes to Apple’s IDFA are impossible to quantify but independent mobile analysts, such as Eric Seufert, have called this an apocalypse with opt-in rates likely to hit 0–20% with an article stating that “deterministic, user-level app attribution will cease to exist once [Apple’s] SKADNetwork adoption reaches critical mass.”

苹果IDFA的选择加入变化无法量化，但独立的移动分析师(例如Eric Seufert) 称这为启示 ，选择加入率很可能达到0–20％，并有一篇文章指出“确定性，用户级”一旦[Apple]的SKADNetwork采用率达到临界值，应用程序的归属就将不复存在。”

Some of this will rely on Google following Apple on opt-in tracking, which did occur in January of this year with the browser restrictions. Notably, iOS sees double the revenue as Android with App Annie reporting $15 billion was spent on iOS in Q1, or $60 billion at an annual revenue run rate, compared to Android’s $8.3 billion in Q1.

其中一些将依赖Google跟踪苹果的选择加入跟踪，这确实发生在今年1月，受浏览器限制。 值得注意的是，iOS的收入是Android的两倍， App Annie报告说 ，第一季度在iOS上的支出为150亿美元，按年收入计算为600亿美元，而Android的第一季度为83亿美元。

有关SKAdNetwork的更多信息 (More on SKAdNetwork)

The new privacy framework from Apple is called the SKADNetwork. Apple’s SKADNetwork API was first introduced in 2018. The concept was to rely on an API to attribute installs rather than the IDFA. Instead, app publishers will receive aggregated, anonymized data from Apple to track the install directly, such as the ad network ID and campaign ID and publisher name.

苹果公司的新隐私框架称为SKADNetwork。 苹果公司的SKADNetwork API于2018年首次引入。其概念是依靠API来赋予安装属性，而不是IDFA。 相反，应用程序发布者将从Apple接收汇总的匿名数据，以直接跟踪安装，例如广告网络ID，广告系列ID和发布者名称。

Apple’s SKADNetwork API represents a new data flow for measuring ad campaigns. Source: Developer.Apple.com

苹果公司的SKADNetwork API代表了一种用于衡量广告活动的新数据流。 资料来源： Developer.Apple.com

As AdExchanger points out, what’s missing will be impressions, creative, remarketing, in-app events, lookback windows, user lifetime value, ROI, retention [and] cohort analysis. Oren Kaniel, CEO of mobile attribution company AppsFlyer says “advertisers will be practically blind.”

正如AdExchanger指出的那样 ，缺少的是展示次数，广告素材，再营销，应用内事件，回溯期，用户生命周期价值，投资回报率，保留率和同类群组分析。 移动归因公司AppsFlyer的首席执行官Oren Kaniel说，“广告商实际上是盲目的。”

There will not be any personally identifiable information or device IDs passed along because the iOS operating system will send the postback rather than the application. This is important for privacy because specific installs will not be attributed to device IDs or personally identifiable information. This also removes the need for mobile measurement partners (MMPs) for campaign performance as they are now redundant (in their current state) with Apple now the arbiter of analytics. Notably, MMPs may evolve to help advertisers sort the attribution data they are receiving in Apple’s new data flow.

由于iOS操作系统将发送回发而不是应用程序发送的消息，因此不会传递任何个人身份信息或设备ID。 这对于隐私非常重要，因为特定的安装不会归因于设备ID或个人身份信息。 这也消除了移动测量合作伙伴(MMP)提升广告系列绩效的需求，因为它们现在(在当前状态下)已变得多余，而Apple现在是分析的仲裁者。 值得注意的是，MMP可能会演变为帮助广告商对他们在Apple的新数据流中收到的归因数据进行排序。

结论： (Conclusion:)

Apple is requiring users to opt-in on every application for the IDFA under the guise of privacy. In 2018, Tim Cook was referencing Facebook when he said, “We shouldn’t sugarcoat the consequences. This is surveillance and these stockpiles of data serve only to make rich the companies that collect them. This should make us uncomfortable.”

苹果公司要求用户以隐私为由选择加入IDFA的每个应用程序。 在2018年， 蒂姆·库克 ( Tim Cook)在引用 Facebook时说：“我们不应该掩盖后果。 这是监视，这些数据库存仅用于使收集这些数据的公司致富。 这应该使我们感到不舒服。”

Privacy in this age of “data everywhere” is a valiant mission, yet there could be more to Apple’s decision as the company has built a very cash efficient ecosystem with many companies profiting from the $100 billion+ industry of mobile app installs.

在“无处不在的数据”时代，隐私是一项艰巨的任务，但苹果的决定可能还有更多，因为该公司已建立了一个非常有现金效率的生态系统，许多公司都从超过1000亿美元的移动应用安装行业中获利。

There is clear evidence as to the importance of direct response in this quarter’s earnings calls thus far, yet mention of the IDFA has been absent from analyst questions despite being one of the biggest threats the mobile ad industry has ever faced. There is a major disconnect between the first few earnings calls in ad-tech talking up the strength of direct response ads and how people who work daily in the mobile ad industry view the IDFA being deprecated. John Koetsier, a journalist and consultant for Singular who covers this space extensively, believes this is a “huge problem for a massive industry.”

到目前为止，有明确的证据表明直接响应在本季度的财报电话会议中的重要性，尽管分析师认为IDFA仍然是移动广告行业面临的最大威胁之一，但仍没有提到分析师的问题。 在广告技术的前几个收益电话中谈论直接响应广告的优势与在移动广告行业中每天工作的人们如何认为IDFA被弃用之间存在很大的脱节。 Singular的记者兼顾问John Koetsier广泛报道了这一领域，他认为这对 “庞大的行业来说是一个巨大的问题”。

This is a problem for the ad industry because it goes well beyond personal sentiments and niceties around privacy and slow-moving government regulations and pits tech giant against tech giant in the black box world of ad software, user tracking and engineered loop holes. There is little question who will win as Apple goes up against Google, Facebook and many others. After all, it’s Apple’s device, Apple’s operating system and Apple’s app store. The only question is why this hasn’t happened sooner.

对于广告行业来说，这是一个问题，因为它远远超出了围绕隐私和缓慢的政府法规的个人观点和技巧，并使技术巨头在广告软件，用户跟踪和设计漏洞的黑匣子世界中与技术巨头抗衡。 毫无疑问，随着苹果与谷歌，Facebook和许多其他公司抗衡，谁会赢。 毕竟，它是苹果的设备，苹果的操作系统和苹果的应用程序商店。 唯一的问题是为什么这种情况不会很快发生。

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翻译自: https://medium.com/swlh/advertising-stocks-face-new-major-challenge-with-apples-ios-14-7cbfdb7d2dad

ios如何介入苹果广告