os error os5_汽车OS竞赛

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重装汽车，第5集 (REINVENTING THE CAR, EPISODE 5)

by Philippe Chain and Frederic Filloux

菲利普·链(Philippe Chain)和弗雷德里克·菲洛(Frederic Filloux)

When I landed at Tesla, I hadn’t realized how much the company was impregnated by Silicon Valley’s software culture. I’m not talking only about the car itself, but also how the whole innovation process is organized.

当我进入特斯拉时，我还没有意识到硅谷的软件文化对公司的影响。 我不仅在谈论汽车本身，而且在谈论整个创新过程的组织方式。

My first conversation with software manager Craig Carlson was a telling example. Craig was vice president for firmware and electrical integration at Tesla Motors at the time. He was in charge of all software systems and low-voltage electronics for the car, from the numerous firmware to the design of hardware and software that run the center display, or the mobile apps and server-based system that connect with the car. I was first stunned by the size of Craig’s troops relative to the rest of Tesla’s engineering staff: he managed almost half of the 700 engineers at the company. To put things in perspective, in 2011, Renault and Volkswagen didn’t have a single in-house software engineer. The code was handled by suppliers.

我与软件经理Craig Carlson的第一次对话是一个很好的例子。 克雷格(Craig)当时是特斯拉汽车公司的固件和电气集成副总裁。 他负责汽车的所有软件系统和低压电子设备，从众多固件到运行中央显示屏的硬件和软件设计，或与汽车连接的基于移动应用程序和基于服务器的系统。 克雷格(Craig)的部队人数相对于特斯拉(Tesla)的其余工程人员而言，最初让我感到震惊：他管理着公司700名工程师中的近一半。 放眼来看，2011年，雷诺和大众没有一个内部软件工程师。 该代码由供应商处理。

Previous episodes:01: The car, reinvented. From scratch.02: Your next car will be electric03: How Tesla cracked the code of automobile innovation04: The Global Race for Battery Supply

上一集： 01 ：汽车，重塑。 从头开始。 02 ：您的下一辆汽车将是电动汽车 03 ：特斯拉如何破解汽车创新守则 04 ：全球电池供应竞赛

That month, September 2011, as VP Quality for the Model S, I arranged a meeting with Craig to probe him on how quality was handled in his department. In the car industry, at least as I knew it, everything — including software — is managed with a set of specifications defined at an early stage of the development of the car, which will eventually be modified at each major iteration of the model.

2011年9月那个月，作为Model S的质量副总裁，我安排了与Craig的一次会议，探讨他如何处理部门的质量。 在汽车工业中，至少就我所知，一切(包括软件)都在汽车开发的早期阶段就通过一组定义的规范进行管理，最终将在模型的每次重大迭代中对其进行修改。

Craig doesn’t have a clue of what I am talking about. Coming from Intuit, Craig sees his work through the lenses of a software engineer, Silicon Valley-like. Hence his puzzlement with my question. “You are asking me about firmware specs?”, he asks in surprise. “We don’t have such things. This is not the way we do things here…” I realized that, unlike the traditional car industry where every piece of code is carved in stone years ahead, Tesla is functioning as a pure software company. As Craig later explained to me, his team relies on a bucket of features, bug corrections, etc. Developers draw from the bucket, based on priorities: number 1 is for the vehicle’s critical functions such as power management, braking, steering, safety features; 2 is for key functionalities of the car; 3 is for secondary features such as the electric windows or rear-view mirrors and 4 is for the rest. At regular intervals, releases are pushed over-the-air (OTA) to the car hardware, exactly like apps are updated on a smartphone. In the early days of the Tesla program, releases were made every two weeks. I quickly came to the conclusion that, when it came to software quality, I had no choice but to trust Craig and his team.

克雷格(Craig)不知道我在说什么。 来自Intuit的 Craig是通过类似于硅谷的软件工程师的视角来观看他的作品的。 因此，他对我的问题感到困惑。 “您问我有关固件规格的信息吗？”，他惊讶地问。 “我们没有这种东西。 我意识到，与传统的汽车行业不一样，每一个代码都是在未来数年内刻划而成的，特斯拉是一家纯粹的软件公司。 正如克雷格(Craig)稍后对我解释的那样，他的团队依靠一系列功能，错误更正等。开发人员根据优先级从存储桶中汲取资源：第1个代表车辆的关键功能，例如动力管理，制动，转向，安全功能。 ; 图2是汽车的关键功能； 3用于辅助功能，例如电动车窗或后视镜，而4用于其余功能。 定期将发布内容通过空中(OTA)推送到汽车硬件，就像在智能手机上更新应用程序一样。 在特斯拉计划的初期，每两周发布一次。 我很快得出结论，就软件质量而言，我别无选择，只能信任Craig和他的团队。

Later, I witnessed another example of Tesla’s agility as a software company. One day at the cafeteria, I overheard a conversation between a test engineer and his colleagues. The guy was senior enough to drive a pre-series of the car on a daily basis. Each day, when arriving home, he had to manually adjust the air suspension to prevent the front spoiler from scraping its driveway. Certainly not a major nuisance, but we could do better, he thought. “Why not having the GPS ‘talk’ to the suspension of the car, then when approaching my bumpy driveway, it would automatically lift the car to prevent any damage?”, he asked. “ — Well, that’s not complicated, frankly”, replied a software engineer, “This is actually a few lines of code”. The next day, they ran the idea to Jerome Guillen, at the time the head of the Model S project, and the modification was added to the bucket, most likely with a low priority assigned to it. But the feature was also low complexity, and it was implemented in the next release. Done.

后来，我见证了特斯拉作为软件公司敏捷的另一个例子。 有一天，在自助餐厅，我听到了测试工程师和他的同事之间的谈话。 这个家伙足够高，可以每天开车进行预赛。 每天，到家后，他必须手动调节空气悬架，以防止前扰流板刮伤车道。 他想当然不是什么大麻烦，但我们可以做得更好。 他问道：“为什么不让GPS'与汽车的悬挂系统'对话'，然后当我驶入颠簸的车道时，它会自动抬起汽车以防止任何损坏？” “坦率地说，这并不复杂”，一位软件工程师回答说，“这实际上是几行代码”。 第二天，他们将这个想法交给了Model S项目负责人杰罗姆·吉伦(Jerome Guillen)，并将修改内容添加到存储桶中，很可能分配的优先级较低。 但是该功能的复杂度也很低，并且已在下一个版本中实现。 做完了

I’m sharing this anecdote to illustrate the Grand Canyon-wide gap there is between Tesla and traditional automakers like Audi or Renault. Had someone at one of the legacy companies come up with the idea of developing a feature involving the navigation system sending instructions to a vital function of the car like suspension, it would not have gone anywhere.

我分享这则轶事来说明特斯拉与奥迪或雷诺等传统汽车制造商之间在大峡谷范围内的差距。 如果某个传统公司中的某人想到了开发一种功能的想法，该功能涉及导航系统向汽车的重要功能(如悬架)发送指令，那么该功能将一事无成。

Again, this is based on experience. At a legacy carmaker, any new feature has to endure a tedious process before even having a chance to see the light of the day. Once documented in detail, the project would have gone through a series of meetings where sales and marketing would have been asked if the feature would be a selling point for the car; then all the subsystems managers would have been required to give their opinions, suppliers would have been summoned, and a flurry of specs would have ensued. Assuming the feature had survived this lengthy journey, it would have been put in the pipeline and scheduled for the next major upgrade of the entire model, possibly two years down the road.

同样，这是基于经验的。 在传统的汽车制造商中，任何新功能都必须经过乏味的过程，甚至没有机会看到今天的情况。 一旦详细记录下来，该项目将经过一系列会议，询问销售和营销功能是否会成为汽车的卖点。 那么所有子系统管理者都将被要求发表意见，供应商将被召集，随之而来的是一系列规范。 假设该功能在漫长的旅程中幸免于难，那么它将被投入生产并计划在整个模型的下一次重大升级中使用，可能需要两年的时间。

In practical terms, that explains the feeling of many drivers who don’t understand why the navigation system or the interface of their car display looks so outdated compared to what they get on their smartphone, tablet, or PC. In fact, the design is likely to have been set in stone five years earlier.

实际上，这解释了许多驾驶员的感觉，他们不理解为什么导航系统或汽车显示屏的界面与智能手机，平板电脑或PC上的相比显得如此过时。 实际上，该设计很可能早在五年前就已定型。

Car software has little to do with computers. First, for a car, there is no centralized operating system like in a PC or a smartphone. The term we use is firmware, which is a set of instructions that controls a particular piece of hardware, like injectors, power train, collision avoidance, windows, wipers, but also critical safety elements like crash features. In the event of a shock occurring on an electric car, for instance, a set of firmware will activate belt tensors, trigger the airbags, send a distress message, turn off the power to prevent an electric shock (the Porsche Tycan carries an 800-volt battery pack — twice as much as a Tesla — that better be to be disconnected in case of a major accident to avoid frying the passengers).

汽车软件与计算机无关。 首先，对于汽车，没有像PC或智能手机那样的集中式操作系统。 我们使用的术语是固件 ，它是一组指令，可以控制特定的硬件，例如喷油器，动力传动系统，避免碰撞，窗户，雨刮器以及重要的安全元件(如碰撞功能)。 例如，在电动汽车发生电击的情况下，一套固件将激活皮带张紧器，触发安全气囊，发送求救信息，关闭电源以防止电击(保时捷泰康携带800-伏特电池组(是特斯拉的两倍)，在发生重大事故时最好断开连接，以免炸死乘客)。

Due to their complexity, Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) automobiles carry actually more firmware than EVs: while a Tesla has 50–60 different Electronic Control Units (ECUs) controlled by firmware, an Audi will have a hundred. Car electronics are managed through a specific bus called CAN (for Controller Area Network) that allows microcontrollers and devices to interact through messages sent sequentially. This clever system was invented in 1983 by Robert Bosch GmBH and first featured in a Mercedes in 1991. Later, it was extended to aviation and various automation systems, including … prosthetic arms.

由于其复杂性，内燃机(ICE)汽车实际上比电动汽车具有更多的固件：特斯拉具有由固件控制的50–60个不同的电子控制单元(ECU)，而奥迪则有一百个。 汽车电子设备通过称为CAN(用于控制器局域网 )的特定总线进行管理，该总线允许微控制器和设备通过顺序发送的消息进行交互。 这个聪明的系统由Robert Bosch GmBH于1983年发明，并于1991年首次出现在梅赛德斯(Mercedes)中。后来，它扩展到了航空和各种自动化系统，包括……假肢。

汽车OS竞赛 (The race for a car OS)

Weirdly enough, the car industry has yet to invent its own operating system. Given its advanced position and agility, Tesla is likely to get it first. Some carmakers are starting to realize that the train has left the station. No one understands it better than Volkswagen Group’s CEO Herbert Diess. Last June, Diess expressed his concerns during a management meeting:

奇怪的是，汽车工业尚未发明自己的操作系统。 鉴于其先进的位置和敏捷性，特斯拉很可能会首先获得它。 一些汽车制造商开始意识到火车已经离开了车站。 没有人比大众汽车集团的首席执行官赫伯特·迪斯更好地理解它。 去年6月，Diess在管理会议上表达了他的担忧：

“It will be years before we have reached the necessary level of expertise in software to be able to compete at the forefront. (…) Even today, hardly a line of software code comes from us.” About VW’s competition, he added: “One of the unpleasant truths is that in China our market leadership is not a law of nature. (…) In China, the leader in electric cars is now called Tesla”.

“要达到最前沿的竞争水平，我们还需要几年的时间才能达到必要的软件专业知识水平。 (…)即使在今天，我们几乎也没有一行软件代码。” 关于大众汽车的竞争，他补充说： “令人不快的事实之一是，在中国，我们的市场领导地位不是自然法则。 (…)在中国，电动汽车的领导者现在称为特斯拉”。

A year earlier, in a presentation before the financial community, Diess had outlined the carmaker’s software strategy, dubbed Car.software, which explicitly involves VW developing an OS-like stack, as summed up in these two slides:

一年前，Diess在金融界的一次演讲中概述了汽车制造商的软件策略，称为Car.software ，其中明确涉及大众开发类似于OS的堆栈，如以下两张幻灯片所示：

While the number of lines is hardly the best way to measure the true performances of a piece of software, it provides a telling metric of its evolution, as also stated by McKinsey in this paper:

虽然行数并不是衡量一个软件的真实性能的最佳方法，但它提供了一个衡量其演变的指标，正如麦肯锡在本文中所指出的那样：

“As the importance of electronics and software has grown, so has complexity. Take the exploding number of software lines of code (SLOC) contained in modern cars as an example. In 2010, some vehicles had about ten million SLOC; by 2016, this expanded by a factor of 15, to roughly 150 million lines. Snowballing complexity is causing significant software-related quality issues, as evidenced by millions of recent vehicle recalls”.

随着电子和软件重要性的增加，复杂性也随之增加。 以现代汽车中包含的爆炸性的软件代码行(SLOC)为例。 2010年，有些车辆的SLOC约为一千万； 到2016年，这一数字增长了15倍，达到约1.5亿条。 滚雪球般的复杂性正在导致与软件相关的重大质量问题，最近数百万次车辆召回证明了这一点。

The advent of a true, robust operating system for automobiles is, in fact, a huge challenge not only for carmakers but also for the entire tech sector as they will be tempted to join the fray: the likeliest evolution for the car industry is to see a competition between traditional carmakers and tech giants — with Tesla as the maverick — to come up with a car OS that will set the standard for the entire industry.

事实上，一个真正，强大的汽车操作系统的问世，不仅对汽车制造商，而且对整个技术行业，都是巨大的挑战，因为他们很容易加入竞争：汽车行业最可能的发展是传统汽车制造商与科技巨头之间的竞争(以特斯拉为特立独行)，提出了将为整个行业设定标准的汽车操作系统。

A car OS will also pave the way for two evolutions of the business: a drastic change in the value of an automobile and the creation of a profuse application ecosystem.

汽车操作系统还将为业务的两个发展铺平道路：汽车价值的急剧变化和丰富的应用生态系统的创建。

On the first point, let’s consider the following. Electric cars will enjoy a long lifespan and low maintenance, thanks to reliable motors, fewer mechanical parts, and predictive failure systems. Even batteries are now aiming at a million-mile lifespan. As a consequence, the depreciation of EVs will be much lower than for ICE cars. This can be seen already: according to the research firm CarEdge, a Tesla Model S acquired in 2017 will retain 63 percent of its value, vs. 53 percent for a Mercedes Benz Class S and 48 percent for an Audi A7. This is largely due to EV technology. But the potential for valuable software updates also plays a critical role in the preservation of the value of a new generation of cars.

首先，让我们考虑以下内容。 得益于可靠的电动机，更少的机械零件和可预测的故障系统，电动汽车将具有长寿命和低维护成本。 现在，甚至电池也可以达到百万英里的使用寿命。 结果，电动汽车的折旧将比ICE汽车低得多。 这已经可以看到：根据研究公司CarEdge的数据，2017年收购的Tesla Model S将保留其价值的63％，而梅赛德斯奔驰S级为53％，奥迪A7为48％。 这主要是由于EV技术。 但是，有价值的软件更新潜力在保持新一代汽车价值方面也起着至关重要的作用。

Elon Musk once said that all the sensors needed for Level 5 autonomous Tesla are already integrated into the car (with a Level 5 autonomy, you summon the vehicle and it takes you wherever you like, without touching anything). Time will tell if this was completely true, but the principle already exists with the smartphone: each important release of iOS or Android wakes up hardware elements that were not in use before, like AI-related chips. The same goes for the car, especially since the cost of loading the latest chipsets is almost negligible given the price of a car. Some updates will simply improve existing functionalities or the user interface, while others will be major, paid-for features like assisted driving or range improvement (during hurricanes in 2017 and 2019, Tesla unlocked an 8–24 percent range increase simply by sending over-the-air commands to its Florida customers eager to flee the storm). We can expect that expensive features like future versions of the autopilot will follow the same path.

埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)曾经说过，第5级自动特斯拉所需的所有传感器都已集成到汽车中(第5级自动驾驶功能，您可以召唤车辆，它可以带您到任何需要的地方，而无需触摸任何东西)。 时间会证明这是否完全正确，但是智能手机已经具备了这一原则：每个重要的iOS或Android版本都会唤醒以前未使用的硬件元素，例如与AI相关的芯片。 汽车也是如此，尤其是考虑到汽车的价格，装载最新芯片组的成本几乎可以忽略不计。 一些更新只会改善现有功能或用户界面，而其他一些更新则将是主要的付费功能，例如辅助驾驶或续驶里程改进(在2017年和2019年的飓风期间，特斯拉只需发送超额费用即可解锁8％至24％的续航里程)向渴望逃离风暴的佛罗里达客户提供空中指挥)。 我们可以预期，诸如自动驾驶仪的未来版本之类的昂贵功能将遵循相同的路径。

汽车应用商店 (The car app store)

But the ultimate leap in value will be the creation of an application ecosystem. The limit will only be the imagination of app creators. As an example, airport operators are likely to develop apps to manage car traffic and passenger flows. Here is a use case: Your flight departing from San Jose Airport leaves in an hour. Your dual app system — one in your phone, the other in the car — checks the flight status, the gate, and the traffic. It notifies you when it’s time to leave. Once in the vicinity of the airport, the app guides you to the parking space nearest to the gate. An alternative and slightly more futuristic scenario involves you dropping your car in front of the terminal, then letting the autopilot send the car to the long-term parking lot a few miles away (this will soon become feasible as geofenced environments such as airports will be well-suited for Level 4 autonomous driving).

但是，价值的最终飞跃将是创建应用程序生态系统。 限制仅是应用程序创建者的想象力。 例如，机场运营商可能会开发应用程序来管理汽车交通和客流。 这是一个用例：您从圣何塞机场起飞的航班在一个小时内起飞。 双应用程序系统(一个在手机中，另一个在汽车中)检查航班状态，登机口和交通状况。 该通知您何时该离开。 到达机场附近后，该应用程序会将您引导至离大门最近的停车位。 另一种更具未来感的方案是，将汽车停在码头前，然后让自动驾驶仪将汽车送至数英里之外的长期停车场(这将很快成为现实，因为像机场这样的地理防御环境将成为现实。非常适合4级自动驾驶)。

Again, this implies major changes in the way car software is currently handled. These scenarios require the car and the phone apps working seamlessly, exchanging data in real-time with the airlines, the airport, the navigation system of the car, the parking infrastructure, and eventually, the autopilot. We are not there yet, but by that time, the dust will have settled: either carmakers will have developed their own OS — along with the SDKs to foster the development of third-party apps — and/or, tech giants will have taken-over, leveraging their current market positions in the phone sector to impose their own norms. I always thought that Apple had that in mind when it hired legions of engineers for its Titan project and filed applications for self-driving cars to the California Department of Motor Vehicles. I doubt that they completely gave up on the idea of replicating what they achieved for the 500 billion smartphone market with the 3 trillion dollar car sector.

再次，这意味着汽车软件当前处理方式的重大变化。 这些情况要求汽车和电话应用程序无缝工作，并与航空公司，机场，汽车导航系统，停车基础设施以及最终的自动驾驶仪实时交换数据。 我们还没有到那儿，但是到那时，尘埃落定了：要么汽车制造商将开发自己的操作系统-连同SDK一起促进第三方应用程序的开发-和/或技术巨头将采取-再者，利用其在电话领域的当前市场地位来制定自己的规范。 我一直以为苹果公司在为其Titan项目聘用了许多工程师并向加利福尼亚汽车部提交了自动驾驶汽车的申请时就牢记这一点。 我怀疑他们是否完全放弃了用3万亿美元的汽车行业复制他们为5,000亿智能手机市场所取得的成就的想法。

— Philippe Chain & Frederic Filloux

— 菲利普·链 ( Philippe Chain) 和 弗雷德里克·菲洛 ( Frederic Filloux)

In episode 6, we will explore how electric drivetrain will open the way to new physical architecture and will impact manufacturing.

在第6集中，我们将探讨电动传动系统如何为新的物理架构开辟道路并影响制造业。

翻译自: https://mondaynote.com/code-on-wheels-a4715926b2a2

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