怎么发帖子屏蔽了?
这样。我还是按照上面哪个数据进行ADF的矩估计
t Zt DelaZt Zt-1 DelaZt-1
1 11.67602657 -6.03853359 5.637492979 -4.261976037
2 5.637492979 -4.261976037 1.375516942 -0.75681145
3 1.375516942 -0.75681145 0.618705492 -0.770752726
4 0.618705492 -0.770752726 -0.152047234 -0.3565082
5 -0.152047234 -0.3565082 -0.508555434 -5.556732687
6 -0.508555434 -5.556732687 -6.065288121 -3.35231468
7 -6.065288121 -3.35231468 -9.417602801 -1.054451568
8 -9.417602801 -1.054451568 -10.47205437 2.453990466
9 -10.47205437 2.453990466 -8.018063902 8.541341456
10 -8.018063902 8.541341456 0.523277554 4.345655277
11 0.523277554 4.345655277 4.86893283 -0.62915721
12 4.86893283 -0.62915721 4.23977562 -14.47421312
13 4.23977562 -14.47421312 -10.2344375 6.771074929
14 -10.2344375 6.771074929 -3.463362573 39.97662834
15 -3.463362573 39.97662834 36.51326577 -45.03163673
16 36.51326577 -45.03163673 -8.518370963 -6.85637809
17 -8.518370963 -6.85637809 -15.37474905 7.686837877
18 -15.37474905 7.686837877 -7.687911176 12.50689005
19 -7.687911176 12.50689005 4.818978874 3.057702765
20 4.818978874 3.057702765 7.876681639 -6.112892775
21 7.876681639 -6.112892775 1.763788865
22 1.763788865
这是经过差分和滞后的。
我形成X的矩阵为
Zt-1 DelaZt-1
5.637492979 -4.261976037
1.375516942 -0.75681145
0.618705492 -0.770752726
-0.152047234 -0.3565082
-0.508555434 -5.556732687
-6.065288121 -3.35231468
-9.417602801 -1.054451568
-10.47205437 2.453990466
-8.018063902 8.541341456
0.523277554 4.345655277
4.86893283 -0.62915721
4.23977562 -14.47421312
-10.2344375 6.771074929
-3.463362573 39.97662834
36.51326577 -45.03163673
-8.518370963 -6.85637809
-15.37474905 7.686837877
-7.687911176 12.50689005
4.818978874 3.057702765
7.876681639 -6.112892775
Y的矩阵为
DelaZt
-6.03853359
-4.261976037
-0.75681145
-0.770752726
-0.3565082
-5.556732687
-3.35231468
-1.054451568
2.453990466
8.541341456
4.345655277
-0.62915721
-14.47421312
6.771074929
39.97662834
-45.03163673
-6.85637809
7.686837877
12.50689005
3.057702765
我经过beit = (X'*X)^-1*X'*Y的矩阵估计式得出的结果为
Beita =
1.3295
0.4071
但是Eviews计算的结果为:
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(ET)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 12/25/17 Time: 16:15
Sample (adjusted): 1972 1991
Included observations: 20 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error
ET(-1) -1.327043 0.292387
D(ET(-1)) 0.390166 0.211619
R-squared 0.565606 Mean dependent var
Adjusted R-squared 0.541473 S.D. dependent var
S.E. of regression 10.24680 Akaike info criterion
Sum squared resid 1889.943 Schwarz criterion
Log likelihood -73.86447 Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat 2.055920
不对啊~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~