Week1.3-金融会计指标案例分析

这个案例解释盈利能力指标和现金流量指标的主要区别。
A case study to illustrate the critical difference between profitability metrics and cash flow metrics.

下载资料：“Egger’s Roast Coffee Case Study” the spreadsheet in pdf and Excel

金融会计术语financial definitions

商业分析和财务会计不同，但也会用到一些会计的概念，帮助大家理解基本的商业指标。
Business analytics is not financial accounting, but it does draw upon some accounting concepts for its metrics.

损益表和现金流量表

P&L Statement and Statement of Cash Flows

现金流转和利润是两个独立的概念，因此公司财务报告会分开讨论它们。利润会被呈现在损益表中，现金流在现金流量表中。
Cash flow and profits are concepts that are so distinct that corporate financial reports discuss them separately. Profits are presented in a profit and loss or a P and L statement and cash flow is in a statement of cash flows.

亏损的公司可能存活并繁荣几年或十几年，例如亚马逊，但是亏损的公司也可能悄无声息的破产，例如eToys pets.com和Webvan。甚至利润很大的公司也可能倒闭，如果它们不能满足短期资金运转，就像世界上最大的最多利润的保险公司AIG一样，在2008年的秋天几天内就倒闭了。盈利的公司实际上经常出现现金短缺并很快破产，这是其中一个最常见的导火索。这种灾难是指不受控制的和计划外的销售增长，欲速则不达。所以在做任何事情之前要弄清楚情况，来确定你的公司不会由于你不能跟踪正确的商业指标而导致资金短缺。
Unprofitable companies can survive and thrive for years or decades. Take Amazon, for example, but unprofitable companies that run out of cash disappear without a trace, like eToys or pets.com or Webvan. Even companies that are massively profitable can collapse if they can’t meet their short term cash obligations quickly enough, as happened to the world’s largest and most profitable insurance company AIG over a few days in the fall of 2008. Profitable companies actually run out of cash and go out of business quite often. One of the most common triggers for this kind of disaster is uncontrolled or unplanned sales growth. Too much success, too quickly can kill you. Make sure before we do anything else that your company will never run out of cash due to your inability to track the right business metrics.

我会使用我的创业项目埃格咖啡烘焙店两个不同的收益情况来阐明这种危险。
I am illustrating this danger through two different revenue scenarios for Egger’s Roast Coffee.

• 情景1 安全的稳定收益
• Scenario one, which involves safe, steady revenues.
• 情景2 令人兴奋的快速增长，但最终变成致命的销售增长
• And scenario two, rapidly increasing, excitingly great. But ultimately, fatal sales growth.

埃格咖啡烘培店计划购买大批生咖啡豆，将它们烘焙包装后提价批发卖给连锁杂货店。我有一个朋友是个大型连锁杂货店的采购员，他承诺以每磅6美元的价格购买我的咖啡豆，这是包揽我所有烘培的咖啡豆的批发价格。我会和这个连锁杂货店签供应合同，同意提供满足他们所需的烘培咖啡豆，如果我不能及时按需供应，会有经济处罚（在确保我每一磅烘培豆都有利润的基础之上）。
The example of a start-up venture that I’m organizing, Egger’s Roast Coffee. Egger’s Roast Coffee plans to buy raw coffee beans in bulk, roast and package them and sell them wholesale at higher prices, obviously, to a grocery store chain. I have a friend who works as a buyer for a giant retail grocery chain and he has promised to buy from me for $6 per pound, that’s the wholesale price as much Egger’s Roast coffee as I can produce. I will sign a supply contract with the grocery store chain, agreeing to deliver as much coffee as they need. With financial penalties, if I failed to deliver the full amount on time, but at a price that guarantees me a profit for every pound.

Net 60

我的朋友认为他的大型连锁杂货铺可以卖出无上限的烘培咖啡豆，我们将以手工烘培咖啡豆的优势来推销我们的产品。这个连锁杂货店对于所有的供应商包括我，都是在收到货物之后的平均60天内支付货款，这样让他们有时间去销售，这就是被称作Net 60的术语。我估计从烘培、包装到运送的平均时间，从我收到生咖啡豆算起是三十天。
My friend thinks that his giant grocery store chain can sell an unlimited amount. We’re gonna market this coffee as artisanal and authentic, roasted with love by me personally in Durham, North Carolina. The grocery chain pays all of its suppliers, including me on average 60 days after it receives the merchandise. This gives it time to sell the merchandise itself. These are common terms known as Net 60. I expect that the average time it will take me to roast, package and deliver beans from the time I receive the raw green beans is 30 days.

可变成本variable cost

我已经找到了一个高质量生咖啡豆的进货来源，以每磅2美元的价格批发。此处的条款是是货到付现简称COD，我在收到咖啡豆的时候就要付款。现在可变成本指的是那些随着我烘培咖啡豆的数目增加而增加的成本，一个明显的例子是我刚刚提到的生咖啡豆本身的花费，我以每磅2美元的价格购买，如果我多买一磅就会多付2美元，这就是可变成本。其他生产可变成本是我在烘培过程中所用的燃料费用，包装烘培咖啡豆的包装纸的费用，向烘培机里装填生咖啡豆的工人的每小时工资和将烘培好的豆子装载到货车上的工人的每小时工资、将烘培的咖啡豆送到客人店铺的运输费用。我预估所有这些可变成本加起来大概有2美元每磅，所以我估计总可变成本大概为4美元每磅 。
I have located a source of high quality raw green coffee beans in bulk for $2 per pound. Their terms are cash on delivery on COD. I pay for the beans when they arrive at the door. Now variable costs are things that cost me more the more beans I roast. The obvious example that I’ve just mentioned are the raw green beans themselves. I buy each pound for $2 and if I buy one more pound, I pay another $2. That is a variable costs. Other variable costs of production for me are fuel used in the roasting process. The paper packaging the beans are wrapped in. Hourly wages for workers who help load the raw beans into the roaster and roasted package beans onto the delivery trucks. Transportation cost to deliver the beans to my customer stores. I expect all of these additional variable costs to be about $2 per pound, so I expect the total variable cost to be about $4 per pound.

投资成本capital investment

下面，我会考虑我的投资资本。
Next, I need to consider my capital investment.

主要投资：购买可以烘培咖啡豆的以能持续快速包装大批咖啡豆的机器。一个可以包装大量豆子的烘培机大概需要540000美元，它的使用期是三年，我计划付现金买它。
I will need to make one major capital investment. I need to buy a machine that can roast and package a large number of beans quickly and consistently. I’ve looked into it and a roaster than can handle the volume of beans I’m expecting costs $540,000. It should last three years before it will need to be replaced. I plan to pay cash for it.

我计划投入总数为800000美元的现金筹划这个生意，因此在开始运营的时候，在银行会留有260000美金的现金缓冲。我还可以从亲朋好友那里再借800000美元来应对紧急情况。
I’m planning on putting $800,000 total cash into this business as we get organized and that will leave me with a nice cash cushion of $260,000 in the bank when we begin operations. I also can borrow up to an additional $800,000 from friends and family, if I need to in an emergency.

折旧depreciation

从财政会计的观点看，为了计算是否以可以盈利的价格出售咖啡，我需要找到一个方法将烘培咖啡豆的成本包含进去，就是那个我花了540000买的机器的成本。我可以说生产第一批一磅重的咖啡花费了我 540004美元，但这不太合理，这意味着下一批咖啡可以免费使用烘培机。传统方法是我会将这540000美元拆解开来重新分配在一个时间段里，这样每一部分费用会被分摊到每一包被机器烘培的咖啡上。因为咖啡烘培机的使用寿命是三年，我会将540000美元分摊至3年或36个月，36分之1，相当于每个月15000美元。如果我每个月生产了25000磅的咖啡，将那个成本平均分配到每磅，会使我的利润减少。售出的每一磅会减少15000除以25000的利润，相当于0.60美元。**由于设备磨损而将资本支出分摊到某一时间段的做法叫做折旧。**我知道机器不会以稳定的状况磨损，但是，会计学中我们常做这种类型的假设。
From the point of view of financial accounting in order to determine if I’m selling coffee at a profitable price or not, I need to find a way to include in the cost of roasting beans, the $540,000 that I already spent on the machine. I could say that the first pound of coffee cost me $540,004, but that would not be fair. The later pounds would get to use the roaster for free. The traditional solution, which I use here is to take the $540,000 amounts and allocate it or parcel it out over time, so that some fraction of that money is assigned to each bag of coffee that is roasted by the machine. Based on the idea that the coffee roasting machine’s useful life is three years, I’m going to allocate the $540,000 purchase price over three years or 36 months. One-thirty sixths or $15,000 each month. If I produced 25,000 pounds of beans each month, allocating that cost to each pound equally results in reducing my profits on each pound of beans sold by 15,000 divided by 25,000 or $0.60 per pound. Allocation of capital expenditures over time, because stuff wears out is called depreciation. I know that machines don’t really wear out exactly steadily, but we make this type of assumption in accounting all the time.

直线折旧法straight line depreciation

你可以画一个从左到右下滑的直线，所以机器的价值被假设以15000美元按月下降。这个方法最常见，称作直线折旧法。
You can picture a straight line that slopes down to the right, so the machine assumed to be worth exactly $15,000 less each month. This approach, which is again, the most common type of depreciation is called straight line depreciation.

固定成本fixed cost

我们考虑折旧是个固定成本，因为它不受生产咖啡数目的影响，机器将不会根据放入豆子的多少而影响折旧的速率。
For simplicity here, we will consider depreciation to be a fixed cost. Fixed, because making one more pound of coffee or one less does not impact it. The machine is not considered to wear out faster or slower, if we run more or fewer beans through it.

管理费用G&A expenses

其它成本每个月也是固定的，无论我烘培1磅咖啡或是10000磅都不会改变那些成本。房屋的租金、办公设备、保险、所需营业执照、每个办公室经理和记账人的工资，这些都叫做G and A 费用，我也会将这些管理费用平摊给生产的每一磅咖啡，就像我平摊资本折旧支出一样。
Certain other of my costs are also the same each month, whether I roast one pound of coffee or 10,000 pounds. Rent for the building, utilities, insurance, required business licenses. Salaries for an office manager and bookkeeper, these are all the so called general and administrative or G and A expenses. I also will assign a fraction of these G and A expenses to each pound of coffee, just as I did with the capital expenditure depreciation.

每个月10000美元的管理费用分给5000磅的生产数量应该为10000 除以25000，即第一年中每磅0.40美元的成本。
G and A expenses of $10,000 per month allocated across 25,000 pounds of production should be 10,000 divided by 25,000 or $0.40 per pound that first year.

随着我产量的增加，每磅的成本会减少，所以在这个模型里我定每磅6美元的销售价格。并且如果一年的产量是300000磅，我的可变成本会是每磅4美元加上每磅1美元的固定成本，会有每磅1美元的利润或净收益，即每年300000美元的收益。当我收到一个订单时我会记录这个销售额，而且在运营的第一个月显示我已经有了25000美元的盈利，所以哪里出错了呢？
My cost per pound will drop, if my production increases. So in the model that I’ve presented at a selling price of $6 per pound and if one year volume of 300,000 pounds, it looks like my variable cost of $4 per pound plus fix costs of $1 per pound should result in a profit or net earnings of $1 per pound or $300,000 the first year. I will record or book this revenue when I receive an order. And so, I’m already showing a profit of $25,000 my very first month of operations. So what could possibly go wrong?

如果从盈利的角度讲这生意看起来很棒。但是如果从公司银行账户上现金流动的角度考虑 这就是个不能让人安心的情况了。
Well, if examined from the point of view of profitability, the business looks great. But if examined from the point of view of how cash moves into and out of the company’s bank account, the picture is a little less reassuring.

浮动时间negative float & positive float

现金流分析是关于时间的问题，你也许记得我们的生咖啡豆是货到付款。货到付款后我们 在送达客户之前需要30天来处理豆子，然后客户60天之后付款，这意味着我们收到订单的同一天也有了支出，但我们在90天之后收回钱。这种情况被称为负向浮动时间，这在无论哪种形式的商业中都是很常见的现象，我会指出一些特别的商业形式例如保险业和银行业会被先付帐，然后提供服务，这是一个让人喜悦的情况，被称为正浮动时间。
Cash flow analysis is all about timing. You may recall that we pay for new beans COD, cash on delivery and then we need 30 more days to process the beans before they can arrive at the customer site. The customer then pays us net 60. This means that on average when we receive an order, we spend cash on that same day, but we get paid cash by the customer 90 days later. This situation known as negative float is extremely common in all different kinds of businesses. I will point out that certain businesses, like insurance and banking get paid cash now to deliver a service later. This is a delightful situation known as positive float.

应收账款aged receivables

然而产品送出后，我们的顾客会欠我们的钱，但是我们还没有收到付款，这些钱被称为应收账款。所以交货后我们会有个应收账款来记录我们那些还未被支付的钱，这笔钱被记入帐单来计算我们的收益或亏损，但是它不会在现金流量表中被显示，因为我们还没有收到这笔钱。我们会追踪收款所用的时间，利用一个度量，被称作应收账款账户，简称应收账款。
However, moneies our customers owe us for products already delivered, but which we have not yet received payment on are called accounts receivable. So we deliver something and then we have an account receivable on that amount of money that we’re owed until it’s paid. The money has been booked for purposes of calculating our profits and losses, but it does not show up on our cash flow statement, because we haven’t actually gotten it yet. We track how long it has been that money we have not yet received is owed us through a metric known as aged account receivables or aged receivables for short.

这就是你所需的所有财务会计概念。
That’s all the financial accounting that you will need.

接下来将会为你展示一个快速发展的情景下，虽然利润还可以，但是现金流却会出现严重问题。
In the next video, we will explore what happens with Egger’s Roast Coffee when you have different types of growth scenarios and we will show how a rapid growth scenario can actually be very dangerous in terms of cash flow even if it’s fine in terms of profits.

案例分析：两种情形

现在我们来看一个盈利的公司怎样走向破产。

情形一：稳定销量

In scenario one, we have steady sales.
埃格咖啡烘培店目前每月销售250000磅的咖啡，以每磅6美元的价格售出，平均每磅成本为5美元，净利润为每磅1美元。
利润=150000美元的收益-10000美元的管理费用-100000美元的可变成本-15000美元的设备直线折旧费用=25000美元

现金流量表却用完全不一样的方法解释这些项目。100000美元的可变成本和10000美元用来购买和烘培25000磅的生咖啡豆的固定开销需要在1月份用现金支付。 但在1月份发生的150000美元的应收账款直到4月份才能被支付。事实上在4月份之前都没有钱进入公司账户。

但由于2月份我们还是有110000的现金支出，且这笔钱必须要在2月份进行支付，另一个110000美元的现金支出是3月份的订单，并且要在3月份支付，我们总共需要330000多美元的现金，直到4月份的第一份应收账款到帐，我之前260000美元的预留金至少有70000美元的短缺。

假设我可以及时筹措到钱在3月份买生豆并且 一切按照计划进行，现金流动也在4月份变为正数，因为40000美元的利润进账，但是我不能筹措到另外的五月份需要的70000美元的风险预留金。到12月份当我的账上有300000美元的净利润时，我依旧缺少510000的现金来开始我的生意。

尽管现金流在4月份是就已经是正向的，我还是需要直到第3年的1月份也就是我建立公司后的第25个月才能赚回800000美元的最初投资。

情形二：急速增长

现在我们来思考第二种情景，也就是当我的销售量急速增长的情景。
埃格咖啡烘培店在当地和全国范围内都取得了巨大的成功，我们收到的订单每个季度都在加倍，1月份至3月份每个月的销量为25000磅，然后4月份和5月份每个月的销量为50000磅，6月到9月每个月的销量为100000磅，10月份至12月份的每个月销量则为200000磅，以此类推。

当我们的销量在 4月份从25000磅增长至50000磅时，利润也加倍，从25000美元或者总量为25000磅每磅1美元的订单，到75000美元，或者总量为50000磅，每磅1.50美元的订单。边际效益即每单位的生产利润增长的原因是当销量加倍的时候只有可变成本在变化，每多生产一磅，可变成本会增长4美元，但是我们固定成本、管理成本和折旧是不变的。当我们生产增加时，这些成本保持不变，所以将25000美元的固定成本分摊到生产的所有咖啡豆上，那么产量为25000磅时，每磅的固定成本为1美元，而产量为50000磅时，每磅的固定成本就会下降至0.50美元。通过增加销量和生产量来增加边际效益，在很多商业里是很典型的方法，也被称作规模经济。

产品的可变成本越低，相比于固定成本，规模效益越大。这就是为什么在线商务，其可变成本几乎只是电力成本，具有很大规模效益的原因。

根据我们的损益表，这种模式会继续到当我们销售200000磅的咖啡豆的时候，此时我们的可变成本保持在每磅4美元，我们的固定成本是每磅12.5美分，总成本是每磅4.12美元0.5美分，总利润是每磅1.87美元0.5美分。在此高速增长的情景里，年底的时候我们会卖出1125000磅的埃格烘培咖啡豆，然后赚取理论上为195万的净利润，但是让我们先来在现金流量表中观察这两个情景。

不幸的是我们的现金流量表，它反映了真正的现金流进和流出的时间，描绘了一个完全不同于损益表的状况。

在情景一中的现金流量里，110000美元的现金在4月份流出去购买25000磅的咖啡豆，但是我们在4月份也收到了150000的现金。最终我们得到在1月份加工和运送的25000磅咖啡豆的钱，大量涌入的现金让我们不需要再借钱了。
但是现在在情景2中，因为顾客订下了一个新的更多的订单，在4月需交付50000磅。我们需要花费210000的现金而不是110000的现金，所以现金流保持负向，我们的风险预备金增加到130000美元。

5月和6月现金流的状况同样糟糕，我们每个月将会有600000的负向现金。直到7月我们才会收到4月份开始的大量订单的钱款。

不幸的是，在7月份我们不只接到 50000磅的订单，是100000磅的订单。我们没有实现所期待的90000美元正向现金流，即在4月份销售50000磅的咖啡豆得到的300000美元的付款，210000美元现金流出去生产另外50000磅的咖啡豆，我们面临着超过1110000美元的负向现金流。之前提到的有300000美元的货款进账，但是需要410000美元出账去生产100000磅的生咖啡豆。我的紧急贷款增加到了360000美元，并且放眼望去没有结束的时候。

我可以坚持到10月份当我们收到第一个多于以往的600000美元的现金报酬，在9月底 我会欠我朋友580000美元以及我自己投入的80000美元，我已经接近他们能帮助我的极限。灾难即将发生 在10月初我们收到一个更大的订单：数目为200000磅的咖啡豆，接下来的三个月每个月均是如此。
现在我开始插入预期的订单和预期的现金流，这样可以清晰的看到如果我们想存活到12月底，我们需要总数为2010000美元的现金。生咖啡豆还在持续不断的运来 我们却支付不起。

我们面临因与杂货店违约的经济处罚，如果我们不能按需供应，按照我们的供应合同的条款，如果我们不能在10月份供应200000磅的咖啡豆，他们会扣留600000美元的支付款，这是在六月份我们运出的100000磅的咖啡豆的付款。

类似种种，这个漏洞变的越来越大，如果他们的订单每季都加倍，现在根据我的Excel表格的分析，一切变的清晰，那就是在第2年的6月份我们需要更多约5百万美元的现金。如果我已经更好的理解负向流动的问题，在开始这项生意之前，我本可以安排应收账款筹资或应收账款让售（对应收账款的短期贷款）。但是这些事情需要花时间去准备并且我们没有能力现在去付我们的账单，燃料公司停止供应烘培咖啡豆所用的能源因为我们没有付款，工人停工因为我们不能付他们工资。最后这个公司破产了，甚至不能被重组。