Week1.8-风险指标-杠杆和声誉风险

风险指标Risk Metrics

杠杆风险

最常见的业务风险似乎源于过高的杠杆：当公司的负债高于它的价值时，它便很难生存。
The most common sources of business risk seem to stem from excessive leverage. When a company owes more money than it is worth, it is unlikely to survive.

Excessive leverage = low survival rate

如果你的业务靠的是发放贷款，而你又同时使用杠杆，那么如果客户无法还债你的风险就会被成倍放大。
If you’re in a business that depends upon making loans, and you are also leveraged, the risk to you if your customers default is magnified many times.

在2008金融危机发生前的美国，银行每拥有1元股权，就被允许借33元。来想象一家能以2%利率借钱，再以3%发放贷款的银行，当他们股权达到1,000万元时，可以借款3.3亿元，再以3%的利率转借这些钱，获得每年330万元的毛利，等于在1,000万元股权上取得33%回报。不过只要借出的贷款中很少一部分变得不能偿还的话，银行就会破产。1千万在3.3亿元里只占3%。
In the United States, before the financial crisis of 2008, banks were allowed to borrow $33 for every $1 that they held in equity. So imagine a bank that could borrow money at 2% and lend it out at 3%. If they had $10 million in equity they could borrow $330 million in debt, lend out that money at 3% and make a gross profit before expenses of 3.3 million per year. Or a 33% return on their 10 million in equity. However, only a very small portion of their loans needed to become unrecoverable or in default for the bank to become insolvent.

声誉风险

还有一种风险是声誉上的，有损你的品牌和未来的销售能力。其中一个例子就是很多连锁餐厅、制造商、杂货店、或零售商，都极易因卖出被污染的食品造成顾客生病，而导致的负面报导造成名誉受损。
Another type of risk is reputational, damage to your brand and ability to sell in the future. One area where any restaurant chain, manufacturer, grocery store, or retailer is extremely vulnerable to bad publicity and damage to reputation is when they have sold a food product that is tainted or contaminated and makes customers sick.

一个很好利用大数据管理风险的例子是Costco(好市多）在召回产品时的快速反应。Costco(好市多)所用的指标 是算出当一级产品召回发生时，需要多久才能联系到每位可能受影响的客户。
One successful example of risk management using big data in the product recall space is Costco’s rapid response to product recalls. The metric for Costco is how long it takes them to contact every potentially at-risk customer, when what’s called a level one product recall occurs.

Costco(好市多)要求所有客户每年付费成为会员，他们数据库里存有会员们的地址、邮箱、电话，因此他们也能较轻易联系到顾客。
Because Costco requires all of its customers to purchase an annual membership, and their membership database contains address information and often email and mobile phone numbers as well, it’s relatively easy for Costco to track down customers.

Costco(好市多)还会记录每次交易中每位客户购买每件货品的编号，又名最小存货单位(SKU)
This is easy because Costco stores a record of every purchase made by every customer at the individual product ID, or SKU level.

数据因此被编入索引，当货品被制造商召回时，这曾在2014春季发生过两次，先是花生酱然后是桃子。在召回的24小时内 Costco(好市多)成功识别所有的超过50,000位买过产品的顾客，用最快的方式联系他们，有时会用电子邮件和电话联系，不管怎样至少会以信件通知，让很多人避免了食物中毒。
So that data is indexed and when a product is recalled by the manufacturer, as happened twice in the spring of 2014, with peanut butter and again with peaches. Within 24 hours, Costco was able to identify all of the more than 50,000 customers, who had bought the product and used the fastest available means to contact them, in some cases email and phone calls, but in any case a letter to a mailing address, and they were able to prevent many, many people from getting sick.

一个更有趣的例子是Costco(好市多)如何用数据库跟踪 一场2010年12月发生的传染病的来源。当美国44个州里的272人都因沙门氏菌而生病时，美国疾病控制中心又名CDC尝试跟踪疾病污染的来源，但起先并不成功。直到有人灵机一动，开始分析Costco(好市多)购买记录，在这可能买过Costco(好市多)商品的272人中，因四分之一美国家庭都是Costco(好市多)会员，估计有大约70人曾逛过Costco(好市多) ，然后就能够识别这70人都曾买过的食品。唯一相同的食品是胡椒香肠，由一家小型香肠店生产Danielle International(丹妮尔国际) ，总部设在Pascoag(帕斯科格) Rhode Island(罗得岛) ，污染物为一个25磅重的箱子里面装的纽约布鲁克林区(Brooklyn)的批发商Wholesome Spice(健康香料)提供的碎红胡椒。
An even more interesting example of using Costco’s database to track an epidemic to its source occurred in January, February of 2010, when 272 people in 44 different states became ill with a single genetically identical strain of salmonella. United States Centers for Disease Control, or CDC, sought to track down the source of contamination, but were initially unsuccessful. Until someone had the very bright idea of analyzing Costco purchase records. For those in the group of 272 who might have shopped at Costco. Since Costco membership reaches about one-quarter of US families, it would be reasonable to assume that this was about 70 people. It was then possible to identify what food items those 70 had purchased in common. The only common product was pepper salami, manufactured by a small sausage company, Danielle International, based in Pascoag, Rhode Island, and the contaminant turned out to be one single 25-pound box of crushed red pepper provided by wholesaler, wholesome spice, based in Brooklyn, New York. Not so wholesome after all.