§3 泊松过程
C1 指数分布
1)无记忆性
: ∀ s , t > 0 : P { X > s + t ∣ X > s } = P { X > t } \forall s,t\gt 0:P\{X\gt s+t|X\gt s\}=P\{X\gt t\} ∀s,t>0:P{
X>s+t∣X>s}=P{
X>t}
-
X ∼ e ( λ ) : E [ X − t ∣ X > t ] = E X X\sim e(\lambda): E[X-t|X\gt t]=EX X∼e(λ):E[X−t∣X>t]=EX
-
指数分布是唯一满足无记忆性的分布
证明: F ˉ ( x ) = 1 − F ( x ) , ∀ s , t > 0 : F ˉ ( s + t ) = F ˉ ( s ) F ˉ ( t ) ⟹ F ( x ) = 1 − e − λ t \bar F(x) = 1-F(x),\forall s,t\gt 0:\bar F(s+t) = \bar F(s)\bar F(t)\implies F(x)=1-e^{-\lambda t} Fˉ(x)=1−F(x),∀s,t>0:Fˉ(s+t)=Fˉ(s)Fˉ(t)⟹F(x)=1−e−λt
2)$T\sim e(\lambda),\forall f:E[\int\infin_0e{-\lambda x}f(x)\mathrm{d}x] =E[\int^T_0f(x)\mathrm{d}x] $
3) X i ∼ e ( λ i ) : min i { X i } ∼ e ( ∑ i λ i ) X_i\sim e(\lambda_i):\min\limits_i\{X_i\}\sim e(\sum\limits_i\lambda_i) Xi∼e(λi):imin{ Xi}∼e(i∑λi),且与排序无关
-
P { X k = min i { X i } } = λ i ∑ i λ i P\{X_k = \min\limits_i \{X_i\}\}= \frac{\lambda_i}{\sum\limits_i\lambda_i} P{ Xk=imin{ Xi}}=i∑λiλi
双服务台等待时间:
E T = E [ T ∣ R 1 < R 2 ] λ 1 λ 1 + λ 2 + E [ T ∣ R 2 ≤ R 1 ] λ 2 λ 1 + λ 2 ET = E[T|R_1\lt R_2]\frac{\lambda_1}{\lambda_1+\lambda_2}+E[T|R_2\le R_1]\frac{\lambda_2}{\lambda_1+\lambda_2} ET=E[T∣R1<R2]λ1+λ2λ1+E[T∣R2≤R1]λ1+λ2λ2
E T = 1 λ 1 + λ 2 ET = \frac{1}{\lambda_1+\lambda_2} ET=λ1+λ21单服务台单队列,服务时间 ∼ e ( μ ) \sim e(\mu) ∼e(μ),每个人的等待极限 ∼ e ( θ ) \sim e(\theta) ∼e(θ)
第n个人被服务概率 P n = ( 1 − θ n θ + μ ) P n − 1 = μ n θ + μ P_n = (1-\frac{\theta}{n\theta+\mu})P_{n-1}=\frac{\mu}{n\theta + \mu} Pn=(1−nθ+μθ)Pn−1=nθ+μμ
第n个人等待时间: W n = 1 n θ + μ + W n − 1 = ∑ k = 1 n 1 k θ + μ W_n = \frac{1}{n\theta+\mu}+W_{n-1}=\sum_{k=1}^n\frac{1}{k\theta+\mu} Wn=nθ+μ1+Wn−1=∑k=1nkθ+μ1
4)独立同分布 X i ∼ e ( λ ) : S = ∑ k = 1 n X k ∼ Γ ( n , λ ) , p S ( s ) = λ e − λ s ( λ s ) n − 1 ( n − 1 ) ! X_i\sim e(\lambda):S = \sum\limits_{k=1}^nX_k\sim \Gamma(n,\lambda),p_S(s) = \lambda e^{-\lambda s}\frac{(\lambda s)^{n-1}}{(n-1)!} Xi∼e(λ):S=k=1∑nXk∼Γ(n,λ),pS(s)=λe−λs(n−1)!(λs)n−1
5)独立 X i ∼ e ( λ i ) : S = ∑ k = 1 n X k , p S ( s ) = ∑ k = 1 n [ λ k e − k s ∏ j ≠ i λ j λ j − λ i ] X_i\sim e(\lambda_i):S = \sum\limits_{k=1}^nX_k,p_S(s) = \sum\limits_{k=1}^n[\lambda_ke^{-k s}\prod\limits_{j\ne i}\frac{\lambda_j}{\lambda_j-\lambda_i}] Xi∼e(λi):S=k=1∑nXk,pS(s)=k=1∑n[λke−ksj=i∏λj−λiλj],称为亚指数分布
- lim s → ∞ r S ( s ) = min i { λ i } \lim\limits_{s\to \infin} r_S(s) = \min\limits_i\{\lambda_i\} s→∞limrS(s)=i