P(A,B|C) and P(A|B,C)

Consider an experiment of tossing a fair coin twice. Sample Space will be {HH, HT, TH, TT} and all outcomes are equally likely.

Define events

A = Tails on the first toss

B = Heads on the second toss

C = exactly one heads in two tosses

Let us first look at Pr(A, B | C) : Given that C has occurred, the new sample space after updating this information becomes {HT, TH}, and probability that the first toss is tails (event A), and second toss is heads (event B) i.e. of the event {TH} is equal to half. So,

Pr(A, B | C) = Pr(A, B, C)/Pr( C ) =12

Now let us consider Pr(A| B, C) : Given that both events B and C has occurred, the new sample space after updating this information becomes {TH}, and probability that the first toss is tails (event A) is equal to one. So,

Pr(A| B, C)= Pr(A, B, C)/Pr(B, C) =1

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