(转)量化投资大师采访摘录-詹姆斯·西蒙斯 James Simons

尽管翻译有点烂,但是英文部分还是有些参考意义。—-本人。


量化投资大师采访摘录-詹姆斯·西蒙斯 James Simons

2017-05-21 量化与对冲

编者按:

以下阿量在网络上找到的有关詹姆斯·西蒙斯接受媒体采访时的一些回答,翻译来源于网络,据“ 福布斯”杂志统计,截至2017年2月,西蒙斯的净值为180亿美元。这使得他在福布斯400富豪榜上排名第24。

“Models can lower your risk…. It reduces the daily aggravation.” With old-fashioned stock picking: “One day you feel like a hero. The next day you feel like a goat. Either way, most of the time it’s just luck.” “We don’t override the models.”

模型可以降低你的风险……它会降低每日的恶化。而老式的选股策略:”有一天你感觉像个英雄。第二天你感觉像一只山羊。换种方式说,大多数情况下它是只是运气。”我们并不优于模型”。

“Certain price patterns are nonrandom and will lead to a predictive effect.”

某些价格形态并非随机,而会有对预测的影响。

“Efficient market theory is correct in that there are no gross inefficiencies, but we look at anomalies that may be small in size and brief in time.”

有效市场理论在不严重低效的市场中是正确的,但我们寻找的是短期、微小的异常现象。

“Great people. Great infrastructure.Open environment. Get everyone compensated roughly based on the overall performance… That made a lot of money.”

牛逼的人;牛逼的设施;开放的环境。让每个人基于整体表现获得大致报酬…这能够生产很多钱。

“Luck, is largely responsible for my reputation for genius. I don’t walk into the office in the morning and say, ‘Am I smart today?’ I walk in and wonder, ‘Am I lucky today?’”

很大程度上运气是我有天才名誉的原因。在早上我不会走进办公室说“今天我聪明吗?”,而是说,“今天我幸运吗?”

“We have three criteria. If it’s publicly traded, liquid and amenable to modeling, we trade it.”

我们有三个标准。如果它公开交易,有流动性并且服从模型,我们就交易它。

“We search through historical data looking for anomalous patterns that we would not expect to occur at random. Our scheme is to analyze data and markets to test for statistical significance and consistency over time. Once we find one, we test it for statistical significance and consistency over time. After we determine its validity, weask, ‘Does this correspond to some aspect of behavior that seems reasonable?’”

我们通过历史数据搜寻不被认为是随机变动的异常现象。我们的目的是要随着时间变化分析数据和市场做统计学意义和一致性测试。一旦我们找到一个,我们会随着时间推移测试它的一致性和统计学意义。我们确定它的有效性后,会问,“这符合某些方面似乎合理的行为吗?

“Trend-following is not such a good model. It’s simply eroded.” Things change and being able to adjust is what made Mr. Simons so successful. “Statistic predictor signals erode over the next several years; it can be five years or 10 years. You have to keep coming up with new things because the market is against us. If you don’t keep getting better, you’re going to do worse.”

趋势跟踪不是一个好的模型。它只是被简单地被冲刷了。”顺应事物变化和能够进行调整是让西蒙斯先生如此成功的原因。”在未来五到十年统计预测信号将削弱。你要不断推出新的东西因为市场是对我们不利。如果你不保持越来越好,你只会更糟糕.

“We don’t start with models. We start with data. We don’t have any preconceived notions. We look for things that can be replicated thousands of times. A trouble with convergence trading is that you don’t have a time scale. You say that eventually things will come together.Well, when is eventually?”

我们不要从模型开始。我们要从数据开始。我们没有任何先入为主的观念。我们寻找那些可以重复数千次的东西。收敛性交易的问题是,你没有时间尺度。你说最终都会收敛。好的,那何时是最终呢?

“Once in a while the phenomena we exploit are particularly present. We like a reasonable amount of volatility. In our business we want some action.” “Tumult is usually good for us. We don’t have credit lines of any significance. We don’t do a lot of leveraged-type financing.”

有时我们利用的现象是特殊存在的。我们喜欢合理的波动性。在我们的工作中我们希望一些行动。”波动通常对我们有好处。我们没有任何意义的信贷额度。我们不做大量的杠杆型融资。

“How we do it isn’t any more mysterious than how a great fundamental investor does it. In some ways it is less mysterious because what we do can be programmed.”

我们如何做它不比其他大量的基本面投资者神秘。某种程度上不那么神秘正是因为我们做什么都可以进行编程。

“Academics has its charms, but it doesn’t have enough charms that I regret leaving that field.” “Be guided by beauty. Everything I’ve done has had an aesthetic component to me. Building acompany trading bonds, what’s aesthetic? … If you’re the first one to do it right, it’s a terrific feeling and a beautiful thing to do something right,like solving a math problem.”

学术界有着独特的魅力,但它没有足够的魅力让我后悔离开那领域。”遵循美。我所做的一切对我而言都是审美的组成部分。建立交易债券的公司,这是美?…如果你是第一个这样做的,做正确的事情是一种很棒的感觉和美丽的东西,就像解决数学问题。

“We look for people who have demonstrated the ability to do first-class research. First and foremost, we look for people capable of doing good science, on the research side, or theyare excellent computer scientists in architecting good programs. We have veryhigh standards and it works. “

我们寻找那些有能力做一流研究的人。首先,我们寻找在有能力做好某方面研究的人,或者他们是在设计好程序方面的优秀计算机专家。我们有非常高的标准并让它工作。

“It’s looking at a lot of data and really looking for what underlies that data. In that sense, it is kind of like astronomy. You look at a lot of data from up in the sky, you bring it down, and it’s quite dirty and you have to clean it to get rid of outliers or one thing or another. Then you hope you can analyze that data in a way that makes sense of whatever hypothesis or set of hypotheses you may have about what you are looking at. That’s a big piece of what we do. There we hire people who are experimental physicists or astronomers.”

寻找大量数据并真正明白形成那些数据的原因。在这个意义上,它就像天文学。你看着天空中的大量数据,你把它带下来,它是相当脏的,所以你不得不去掉其他东西把它清理干净。然后你希望你可以分析该数据,使得无论何种假说或设什么假设你可以明白你在看什么。这就是我们所做的一大块。这是我们雇用那些实验物理学家或天文学家的人的原因。

“Brownian Motion is something that has a better chance of being applied. Brownian motion is a way of looking at data and ordering random activity, or activity that looks random. Models like that, and approaches like that are very useful. … We use very rigorous statistical approaches to determine what we think is underlying a phenomenonand really do explain that part of it. But it’s not like proving theorems. “

布朗运动是有更好机会被应用的东西。布朗运动是看数据和排序随机活动或那些看起来是随机活动的方法。这样的模型和这样的方法是非常有用的。…我们使用非常严谨的统计方法来确定我们所思考的潜在现象,并真正解释它。但这不是证明定理。”

“But I like to ponder. And pondering things, just sort of thinking about it and thinking about it, turns out to be a pretty good approach.”

但我喜欢思考。思考的事情,只是反复思考,被证明是一个很好的方法。

“As a trader, SIMONS tries to overcome fundamental laws, not discover them. In the case of quantitative finance, the law is the efficient markets hypothesis and the belief that markets should be difficult, but not impossible, to beat.”

作为交易者,西蒙斯尝试克服基本规则,而不是发现它们。在定量金融,规则是有效市场假说和应该很难但不是不可能打败的信念。

“Renaissance essentially attempts to predict the future movement of financial instruments, within a specific timeframe, using statistical models. The firm searches for something that might be producing anomalies in price movements that can be exploited. At Renaissancethey’re called “signals.” The firm builds trading models that fit the data.”

文艺复兴基本上是用统计模型试图预测指定时间框架内金融工具的未来走势。该公司寻找那些有可利用机会的异常价格走势。在文艺复兴,它们被称为”信号”。”公司建立拟合数据的交易模式。

“Mathematics and science are two different notions, two different disciplines. By its nature, good mathematicsis quite intuitive. Experimental science doesn’t really work that way.Intuition is important. Making guesses is important. Thinking about the right experiments is important.”

数学和科学是两个不同的学科,两个不同的概念。从性质而言,好的数学是很直观的。实践科学真的不会这样。直觉是重要的。猜测是重要的。思考正确的实践是重要的。

“I want a guy who knows enough math so that he can use those tools effectively but has a curiosity about how things work and enough imagination and tenacity to dope it out.”

我想要一个有足够数学知识并能有效地使用这些工具的家伙,同时他需要有了解这些如何工作的好奇心和足够想象力去推理。”

“Many of the anomalies we initially exploited are intact, though they have weakened some. What you need to do is pile them up. You need to build a system that is layered and layered.And with each new idea, you have to determine, Is this really new, or is this somehow embedded in what we&# 39;ve done already? So you use statistical tests to determine that, yes, a new discovery is really a new discovery. Okay, now how does it fit in? What’s the right weighting to put in? And finally you make an improvement. Then you layer in another one. And another one.”

“许多我们最初利用异常现象是完好无损,虽然他们被削弱了一些。你需要做的就是堆起来。你需要建立一个系统,是层状和分层。和与每个新的想法,你必须确定,这是真正的新内容,或这已经以某种方式嵌入我们已经做了的?因此您使用统计检验来确定的是的一个新的发现真的是一个新的发现。好吧,现在它是如何吗?正确的权重放是什么?最后你有所改善。然后你在另一个层。和再另一层。

来源:量加头条

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