乘WEB 2.0漫游虚拟太空

乘WEB 2.0漫游虚拟太空

 
作者：朱丽•梅耶（Julie Meyer）
2006年3月28日 星期二
 
 
飞机刚刚问世的时候，飞行员要戴上护目镜，系好领巾，并穿上厚厚的夹克。在飞行的时候，迎面而来的风会急速地掠过他们的脸庞。他们热爱这种感觉。

而今当你乘飞机横渡大西洋时，却是一番截然不同的感受。宁静详和、亲切友好的机舱环境让人忘却了此刻正置身于旅途中。

尖端科技的发展把飞行变成了稀松平常的事。如今，互联网也在向着同样的趋势发展。

蒂姆•伯纳斯-李（Tim Berners-Lee）发明互联网的时候，它只是为技术人员服务的工具。当这一功能发挥到极致时，互联网摇身一变，成为了一种激动人心的、具有冲击力的新鲜事物，开始逐渐地改变人们的生活。

在网站上买东西的人很喜欢网络购物的那份便捷，但是他们的心里仍然非常清楚，他们是在“使用”互联网。

但互联网正在迈入第二个发展阶段。我们现在生活在一个Web 2.0的世界里。和其它正在日趋成熟的技术一样，互联网也已开始成为我们习以为常的事物。

使用Web2.0的人们将越来越少地意识到，他们是在同互联网技术打交道，因为网络已成为他们生活的一部分，人们关注的将是互联网的实际运用，而非其背后的技术。

当然，要使用户的目光集中于应用，网络技术必须进一步发展，直到它能足够有效地满足用户的需要。

正是因为飞机制造商具备了建造安全舒适的大型客机的技术，我们现在才能享受到舒适便捷的空中旅行。同样道理，互联网的Web 2.0时代已不再是梦想，这是因为互联网技术已发展到了一定的程度——价格相对较低的宽带得以普及，通过电脑、个人数字助理（PDA）以及无线移动终端上网的人也越来越多。

人们对于互联网抱有越来越大的热情，他们想要拥有并掌握网络所能提供的一切事物。如果企业家能够发挥创造力，投入精力开发出不断满足这种热情的产品，那么他们将在Web 2.0这个巨大的市场中收获丰厚的回报。

的确，过去已经有不少人在互联网上赚到了钱。但是，在一个崭新、成熟的Web 2.0市场中，仅仅把传统的商业模式照搬到互联网上是远远不够的（像Amazon这样的网站基本上只是将书店开到了网上而已），更重要的是要为消费者创造出网络的新价值。

要实现这样的目标，就必须运用互联网科技的最新发展成果，并以此创造出一个新的时代。这个时代，按照Egg and Zopa公司的创始人理查德•杜瓦（Richard Duvall）的说法，就是一个彰显个人力量的时代。

有一点是很明确的：网络的确已经改变了一切。

互联网帮助我们管理时间和财产，帮助我们与人沟通并建立良好的关系，并且使我们的生活达到了10年前只存在于科幻小说中的水平。在互联网时代，我们对于不能满足我们要求的事物总是毫不留情地加以淘汰，并且非常乐意接受那些能够满足我们所想、所需的新生事物。

从影响上说，Web 2.0时代和20世纪60年代一样，都是一个崇尚个性解放、鼓励挣脱既有体制束缚、体现个人力量的时代。

体现这一时代精神的代表企业有：Google、电子港湾（Ebay）/Skype、移动ATM公司（Mobile ATM）、Zopa 和“故友重逢网”（Friends Reunited）。但其他一些表现不俗的小公司很快也将声名鹊起，因为互联网能使那些拥有绝佳创意的企业从默默无闻的配角一跃成为熠熠生辉的明星，这正是其魅力所在。

从现在到2010年为止的这段时间里，技术创新将如何改变我们的生活？

今天的世界每一天都在变化，现在预测2010年以后的世界可能不太明智。但新时代将会具有如下两大特点：

■宽带无处不在，越来越多的网民将“永久在线”。人们将更加依赖用于上网的硬件设备。只要看看最近发生的黑莓（BlackBerry，无线电子邮件系统）的专利诉讼案引发了多大的恐慌，我们就能预见这一点。

■与那些恪守传统出版周期的媒体相比，人们很快将对那些能让他们不受地域限制、自由表达观点和看法的新兴媒体产生更大的兴趣。公民新闻（citizen journalism）的流行就是最好的证明——迅速崛起的网络日志正是草根阶层表达思想、打发无聊时光的武器。

值得玩味的是，在Web 2.0的发展中，大公司表现出了超乎寻常的创新精神。或许，那个最好的创意总是产生于小公司的年代已经一去不返。无论是对商业领域还是对整个社会，Web2.0都开创了一个全新的领域，老规则正在被颠覆，新规则正在建立。

假若你没有思考过这些变化的话，我敢打赌，要不了多久，你就会被同行超越和取代。

本文作者朱丽•梅耶女士是伦敦的投资与顾问公司Ariadne Capital的首席执行官。公司网站是www.ariadnecapital.com，电话+44 (0)20 7653 0204。
 

Read this story in English

 

We’ll travel in style on the super highway
By Julie Meyer

Published: March 7 2006 17:41 | Last updated: March 7 2006 17:41

When aeroplanes were first invented, pilots wore goggles, long scarves and heavy coats. They loved the feel of the wind rushing over their faces.

Today, if you fly across the Atlantic, you are inside a serene, user-friendly flying cinema and can forget you are travelling at all.

The sophistication of the technology means you can take the flying for granted. The internet is going through a similar evolution.

When it was invented by Sir Tim Berners-Lee, it was a tool for technicians.

As it reached the zenith of the first stage of implementation, it was an exciting, wind-in-the-face novelty that was gradually starting to make inroads on consumers.

People buying things from internet websites appreciated its convenience but they were still very conscious of “using the internet”.

But the internet is heading beyond that first phase. We are now living in the world of Web 2.0. As with other technologies that are reaching maturity, we are starting to take it for granted.

People using Web 2.0 applications will be less aware they are on the internet because the internet has become part of their lives and they think about the application rather than the technology.

Of course, it is only possible for users to have this focus on the application when the technology is effective enough to support it.

We travel in flying cinemas because aircraft manufacturers have mastered the art of building large jets that are safe and comfortable.

Similarly, the Web 2.0 phase of the internet is possible because internet technology has developed to the point where broadband is widely and relatively inexpensively available, where customers are adept at getting online using desktop computers or – increasingly – via personal digital assistants, including wireless ones.

The Web 2.0 market is a fertile ground for entrepreneurs willing to use creativity and energy in developing applications that appeal to customers’ rapidly increasing passion for control, and mastery of everything the internet can offer.

Yes, many entrepreneurs have made fortunes from internet applications, but the new, mature Web 2.0 is not just about creating internet versions of businesses – such as Amazon, which is basically a bookshop on the internet – but about creating new applications for customers.

These should really exploit the latest developments in internet technology, to create what Richard Duvall, founder of Egg and Zopa, regards as the new era of individual power.

The point is this: the internet really has changed everything.

We are using it to manage our time, our communications, our assets and our relationships and to gain a level of mastery over our lives that would have been science fiction a decade or so ago. We are ruthlessly willing to cut out intermediaries or are learning to love new ones who really “get” what we want to do, be or have in our lives.

Web 2.0 is, in effect, our 1960s. It is the era of individual freedom, and an escape from the stranglehold of the establishment to empowerment of the individual.

Which companies epitomise this remarkable time of change? They include Google, Ebay/Skype, Mobile ATM, Zopa and Friends Reunited. But other exciting new companies will be famous soon, because the beauty of the internet is that it gives great ideas the opportunity to rise from obscurity to stardom with great speed.

What is the roadmap for the ideas and innovations that will shape the rest of this first decade of the 21st century?

There is so much going on today that making predictions beyond the end of this first decade may be unwise. Here are two key characteristics of the new era:

■Broadband is everywhere and more and more internet users are “always on”. People become emotionally wedded to their broadband access hardware. Note how much panic has been generated by the recent BlackBerry lawsuit.

■People are rapidly becoming more interested in generating their own content – their thoughts and opinions, for example – and publishing globally, than they are in respecting time-honoured journalism. Witness as examples of this: citizen journalism, the rise of the blog as a corporate tool and as the favourite “anti-boredom” weapon.

Interestingly, the large corporate players in the Web 2.0 world seem to be getting very good at being innovators themselves.

Perhaps the days when only small companies had the best new ideas are coming to an end. It is perfectly possible. Web 2.0 is creating a new universe for business and society, and the rules are undergoing a paradigm shift.

If you are not thinking about all these things, you can bet that someone in your industry is, and may soon be eating you for lunch.

Julie Meyer runs Ariadne Capital, a London-based investment and advisory company. www.ariadnecapital.com Tel. +44 (0)20 7653 0204.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006