【学习笔记-时间序列预测】prophet-使用.1 安装与增长率预测

1.安装Anaconda

很久之前装的了，忘了，略过

2.安装pystan

打开Anaconda Promopt

(base) C://... >python
>>>conda install pystan

可能是因为已经安装过visual studio c++，pystan的安装挺顺利的，好像就在[Y]/N那里输入了个Y，然后就连续几个done顺利安装了

3.安装fbprophet

>>> conda install -c conda-forge fbprophet

然后有个报错，说是没安装plotly，那就装！

>>> pip install plotly_express

4.检验是否安装成功

>>> import pystan
>>> import fbprophet

没有报错，成功安装

5.导入数据

>>> import pandas as pd
>>> from fbprophet import Prophet
>>> df=pd.read_csv('D:\Machine learning\prophet-main\example_wp_log_peyton_manning.csv')

使用的是在 Prophet 的 github 主页 中的 examples 文件夹 内的数据集

>>> df.head()
           ds         y
0  2007-12-10  9.590761
1  2007-12-11  8.519590
2  2007-12-12  8.183677
3  2007-12-13  8.072467
4  2007-12-14  7.893572
>>> type(df.ds.iloc[0])
<class 'str'>

查看数据、数据类型

>>> m = Prophet()
>>> m.fit(df)
INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this.
Initial log joint probability = -19.4685
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes
      99       7974.84    0.00139678       451.299           1           1      127
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes
     199       7993.33    0.00250392       122.806           1           1      249
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes
     257       7996.11  6.49542e-005       196.815  3.664e-007       0.001      352  LS failed, Hessian reset
     299       7997.14   0.000274336       138.333      0.4632      0.4632      400
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes
     353        7998.5  8.92333e-005       165.006  1.585e-007       0.001      508  LS failed, Hessian reset
     399       7999.92   0.000379877       87.9033           1           1      568
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes
     4