丹尼尔·卡尼曼的前景理论（Prospect Theory）：人类如何做决策？（中英双语）

阿正的梦工坊

于 2025-02-22 14:18:57 发布

阅读量738

点赞数 10

分类专栏： Finance 文章标签：金融

本文链接：https://blog.csdn.net/shizheng_Li/article/details/145794433

版权

Finance 专栏收录该内容

141 篇文章

订阅专栏

丹尼尔·卡尼曼的前景理论：人类如何做决策？

📌 什么是前景理论？

前景理论（Prospect Theory） 是由 丹尼尔·卡尼曼（Daniel Kahneman） 和 阿摩斯·特沃斯基（Amos Tversky） 于 1979 年提出的决策理论，解释了人们在风险和不确定性下如何做决策。

与传统经济学假设的理性决策不同，前景理论发现：
✅ 人们在面对收益时更倾向于规避风险，而在面对损失时更容易冒险
✅ 损失带来的痛苦大于同等收益带来的快乐（损失厌恶，Loss Aversion）
✅ 人们关注相对变化（“参考点”），而非最终的财富

📌 简单来说，前景理论认为，人类决策不是完全理性的，而是受到心理偏差的影响。

📌 价值函数（Value Function）—— 损失的痛比收益的快乐更强烈

前景理论中的价值函数（Value Function） 描述了人们如何感知收益和损失：

$\begin{cases} x^\alpha, & x \geq 0 \\ -\lambda (-x)^\alpha, & x < 0 \end{cases}$

其中：

( $x$ )：收益或损失
( $\alpha$ )（通常取 0.88）：收益或损失的感知强度
( $\lambda$ )（通常取 2.25）：损失厌恶系数，表示人们对损失的敏感度大约是收益的 2.25 倍

📌 Python 代码：绘制前景理论的价值函数

下面是用 Python 绘制价值函数的代码，你可以运行后看到清晰的收益/损失曲线：

import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

# 定义前景理论的价值函数
def value_function(x, alpha=0.88, lambda_=2.25):
    return np.where(x >= 0, x ** alpha, -lambda_ * (-x) ** alpha)

# 生成收益和损失数据
x = np.linspace(-10, 10, 400)  # 从 -10 到 10 的收益和损失
y = value_function(x)

# 绘制价值函数曲线
plt.figure(figsize=(8, 5))
plt.plot(x, y, label="Prospect Theory Value Function", color="b")
plt.axhline(0, color='black', linewidth=0.5)
plt.axvline(0, color='black', linewidth=0.5)
plt.xlabel("收益 / 损失")
plt.ylabel("主观价值")
plt.title("前景理论的价值函数：损失比收益更痛苦")
plt.legend()
plt.grid()
plt.show()

Output

在这里插入图片描述

📌 代码解读

✅ 负值区域（左侧）比正值区域（右侧）陡峭，说明人们对损失更加敏感
✅ 收益边际递减（右侧曲线变缓），说明越多的收益带来的额外快乐越少
✅ 损失厌恶系数 λ=2.25，意味着损失 1 元的痛苦 ≈ 获得 2.25 元的快乐

运行代码后，你会看到前景理论中的典型价值曲线：损失带来的心理痛苦远超同等金额的收益。

📌 前景理论的现实应用

📍 1. 投资决策

❌ 投资者更愿意持有亏损的股票，而非获利的股票

股票盈利 10% 时，大部分人会“落袋为安”
股票亏损 20% 时，人们却不愿卖出，而是继续等待翻盘
这就是 “损失厌恶”，让人们在投资中做出不理性的决定

📍 2. 保险市场

📌 保险公司利用人们对低概率事件的恐惧来销售高价保险

车祸、航班失事的概率很低，但很多人仍然愿意买高价保险
因为人们高估了小概率事件发生的可能性

📍 3. 营销与定价

📌 商家利用参考点影响消费者决策

“原价 1000 元，现价 599 元” 的促销方式，让消费者感觉自己“赚了 401 元”
但如果商家直接标 599 元，消费者就不会有这么强的购买冲动

📍 4. 赌博与彩票

📌 赌场和彩票公司利用人们对小概率事件的误判

人们低估了亏钱的可能性，高估了中奖的概率
赌场就是利用这一点赚大钱 🎰

📌 总结

📌 前景理论解释了人们在面临收益和损失时的非理性行为
📌 损失的痛苦远大于同等收益带来的快乐（损失厌恶）
📌 人们倾向于高估小概率事件（如彩票中奖），低估高概率事件（如保险赔付）
📌 这一理论被广泛应用于投资、保险、市场营销和消费者行为分析

✅ 如果你想成为更聪明的投资者和决策者，理解前景理论是至关重要的！ 🚀📊

💡 你是否曾经因为损失厌恶而做出不理性的投资决策？欢迎在评论区分享你的经验！ 🎯

Prospect Theory: Understanding Human Decision-Making Under Risk 🎯💡

📌 What Is Prospect Theory?

Prospect Theory, developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979, is a behavioral economics theory that explains how people make decisions under risk and uncertainty.

Unlike traditional economic theories that assume rational decision-making, Prospect Theory shows that:
✅ People tend to avoid risks when facing gains but take risks when facing losses
✅ Losses feel more painful than equivalent gains feel pleasurable (Loss Aversion)
✅ People evaluate outcomes relative to a reference point, rather than their absolute final wealth

📌 In simple terms, people are not purely rational when making decisions and are influenced by psychological biases.

📌 Value Function: Losses Hurt More Than Gains Feel Good

Prospect Theory proposes a value function to describe how people perceive gains and losses:

$\begin{cases} x^\alpha, & x \geq 0 \\ -\lambda (-x)^\alpha, & x < 0 \end{cases}$

Where:

( $x$ ) = gain or loss amount
( $\alpha$ ) (typically 0.88) = sensitivity to gains and losses
( $\lambda$ ) (typically 2.25) = loss aversion coefficient, meaning a loss of $1 feels about 2.25 times worse than a gain of $1 feels good

📌 Python Code: Plotting the Value Function

Below is a Python script to visualize the Prospect Theory value function, helping illustrate Loss Aversion:

import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

# Define the value function for Prospect Theory
def value_function(x, alpha=0.88, lambda_=2.25):
    return np.where(x >= 0, x ** alpha, -lambda_ * (-x) ** alpha)

# Generate data for gains and losses
x = np.linspace(-10, 10, 400)  # From -10 to 10
y = value_function(x)

# Plot the value function
plt.figure(figsize=(8, 5))
plt.plot(x, y, label="Prospect Theory Value Function", color="b")
plt.axhline(0, color='black', linewidth=0.5)
plt.axvline(0, color='black', linewidth=0.5)
plt.xlabel("Gains / Losses")
plt.ylabel("Perceived Value")
plt.title("Prospect Theory Value Function: Losses Hurt More Than Gains Feel Good")
plt.legend()
plt.grid()
plt.show()

📌 Interpretation of the Chart

✅ The loss side (left) is steeper than the gain side (right), showing that losses feel more painful than equivalent gains
✅ Diminishing sensitivity to gains (curve flattens on the right), meaning that an extra $10K is more exciting for someone with $50K than for someone with $10M
✅ Loss aversion coefficient (( $\lambda$ ) = 2.25), meaning that a $1 loss is psychologically equivalent to a $2.25 gain

Run the code and you’ll see a typical Prospect Theory curve demonstrating that the pain of losing exceeds the joy of winning.

📌 Real-World Applications of Prospect Theory

📍 1. Investment Behavior

📉 Investors hold onto losing stocks longer than they hold winning stocks (Loss Aversion)

Many investors sell a stock after a 10% gain but hold onto it after a 20% loss, hoping it will recover
This results in selling winners too early and losers too late, reducing portfolio performance

📍 2. Insurance Industry

📌 Insurance companies leverage people’s fear of low-probability events to sell expensive policies

Car accidents and plane crashes are rare, but people still buy high-priced insurance
People overestimate the probability of rare events

📍 3. Marketing & Pricing

📌 Retailers use reference points to influence consumer decisions

“Original Price: $1,000, Now: $599” is more effective than just pricing it at $599
Because consumers’ reference point is $1,000, they perceive a $401 “gain”

📍 4. Gambling & Lottery

📌 Casinos and lotteries exploit people’s misunderstanding of probabilities

People underestimate their chances of losing and overestimate their chances of winning
This is why casinos always make money 🎰

📌 Conclusion

📌 Prospect Theory explains why people behave irrationally when making decisions under risk
📌 Losses hurt more than equivalent gains feel good (Loss Aversion)
📌 People overestimate small probabilities (lottery) and underestimate large probabilities (insurance claims)
📌 The theory is widely used in investing, insurance, marketing, and behavioral finance

✅ Understanding Prospect Theory can help you make smarter decisions and avoid psychological traps in investing and everyday life! 🚀📊

💡 Have you ever made a bad decision due to loss aversion? Share your experience in the comments! 🎯