Ebola Africa epidemic and how thegovernment should make a move
Abstract:
In this paper, the Ebola virus in Africa andthe United States government to Ebola epidemic, outbreak of funds to supportthe problems such as large amount of data mining, using multiple regression,pharmacokinetics, calculus as the basic theory of in-depth modeling.
Aiming at the problem, we collect a lot ofrelevant African Ebola patient data and statistical charts. On this basis, weuse SIR model to several possible countries conducted in-depth analysis anddiscussion, by changing the comparison chart and the prediction model of SierraLeone as the Ebola virus the most serious African countries.
针对问题二，先建立起多元回归模型预测了还会有疾病的发生，之后将整体微分为无数个体，通过对个体用药的研究进而积分为整体用药量的需求。我们在药物动力学理论的基础上建立起对应模型，来预测可能所需要的药物产量。
For question two, first set up the multipleregression model to predict there will be the happening of the disease, afterwill be the overall differential for individuals, through the study of theindividual drug dosage and integral whole with the demand of. We establishedthe corresponding model based on the pharmacokinetics of theory, to predictdrug production may need.
For question three, using optimization modelto determine the American governments using public welfare payments and thegovernment budget to support drug production way.
Key words: SIR model; pharmacokinetic model; optimization model;modelvalidation;multiple regression
Contents
1. Introduction...................................................................................................................................................5
2. The Description of Problem….............................................................................................................5
2.1 Analysisof the frist problem……………………………………..……………..5
2.2 Analysis of the second problem………………………………...……………………..…………5
2.3 Analysisof the third problem………………………………………………..………………..….5
2.4Analysis of the forth problem………………………………………………..………………..….5
3. Models……………...........................................................................................................................................5
3.1 Basic Model............................................................................................................................................5
3.1.1 Symbols and Definitions………………………………..…...……………………………..6
3.1.2 Assumptions……………………………………………………………….……..…………….6
3.1.3 The Foundation of Model………………………………………………………………….7
3.1.4 Solution and Result……………………………………………………………….………...7
3.1.5Strength and Weakness………………………………………………….…………….…..10. 4.Conclusions..............................................................................................................................................10
4.1Conclusions of the problem……………………………………..……………..11
4.2 Methods used in our models…………………………………...……………………..…………11
4.3Application of our models…………………………………………………..………………..….11
5. References...................................................................................................................................................11
6. Appendix......................................................................................................................................................11
Programsand codes………………………………………………………………..……………………12
I.Introduction
In order to indicate the origin of Ebola problems, the following background isworth mentioning.
The title comesfrom the people's attention in 2014 at the outbreak of the Ebola virus inAfrica. Ebola (Ebola), is a generic term used to refer to a group of fibersbelonging virus Keaibola virus under several viruses, bio-security level 4 (AIDSto level 3, SARS is three, the greater the number of stages more stringentprotection). Ebola virus is caused by humans and primates occur Ebolahemorrhagic fever (EBHF) potent viral hemorrhagic fever caused thereby is theworld's most deadly viral hemorrhagic fever, has killed 10 times with the scaleoutbreak. Ebola virus outbreak on first claimed the lives of nearly 300 people,in 2003 in the Congo (DRC) so that more than 100 people were killed, in lateMay 2004 outbreak in southern Sudan recurrence, there are four people werekilled, while Russia a female scientist laboratory infection and died due toacupuncture. Virus erupted again in 2014, ranging from 4000 has caused deathsconfirmed, may be infected and suspected cases ranging from 3069 cases. Thekiller virus has caused WHO (World Health Organization) are highly valued.theproblem analysis
II. The Description of the Problem
2.1 Predict a do you think of the countriesmost affected by the ebola outbreak,and figure out expected rate of change in the number of Ebola infections for thecountry from 2006 to 2025,and then estimate the cost of US to deal with thecrisis.
2.2 Ifthere is a new disease will appear in this period of time, so calculate toeliminate the time required for drug production and disease.
2.3 WithAmerica's budget for the pharmaceutical companies and public welfare policiesto encourage drug research and development and production.
2.4 How to choose the enterprise establishmentcooperation, for drug research in order to reduce drug costs and risks.
III. Models
3.1 Basic Model
3.1.1 Terms, Definitions and Symbols
The signs and definitions are mostlygenerated from queuing theory.
| C | Plasma concentration
|
| The highest concentration | |
| t | Time |
| D | A metering
|
| V | Volume
|
| Serum concentration after injection of the first dose
| |
| Plasma concentration of agent after the injection of n
| |
| In a time of administration, the average concentration of stability at
| |
| Time interval
| |
| k | Coefficient
|
| ，The steady state concentration change law
| |
| n次注射后最大血药浓度 The maximum plasma concentration of N after the final injection
| |
| The minimum plasma concentration of N after the final injection
|
3.1.2 Assumptions
l The Sir model hypothesis:
（1）To not consider birth, death, flowof population dynamic factors. The
population has always maintained a constant,namely N (T) = K.
（2）The one patient once and susceptible contactmust have certain
infectivity. Assuming that the t time unit of time, a patient can infectsusceptible number and the environment susceptible to the total number of S (T)is proportional to the proportion coefficient is beta, which at the moment of T in unit time is the numberof all patients with infectious for beta S (T) I (t).
（3）t时刻，单位时间内从染病者中移出的人数与病人数量成正比，比例系数为γ，单位时间内移出者的数量为γI(t)。
T moment, the number of infectives removedfrom the patient in unit time
is proportional to the quantity, the proportion coefficient is gamma,
number in unit time is removed fromthe gamma I (t).
3.1.3 The Foundation of Model
1, we carefullyanalyzed since 2006 Ebora virus infection in humans in Africa quantity anddeath rate, and the establishment of the chart analysis, found the 2014epidemic serious Liberia, Guinea and other countries are Ebora virus outbreakthis year, far more than in previous years, Ebora in Congo and other countriesthe number of infected population. Thus we have established the SIR modelanalysis of research on ebola. We calculated the Ebola virus on the expectedchanges in the number of people infected with the rate, we make the simulationcurve of optimal prediction, Sierra Leone for Ebola virus the most seriousAfrica state, and estimated the cost required American.
2、对于问题二，我们设想建立回归模型确定该地区是否爆发其他疾病，并采用药物动力模型预测新疾病的药物产量。采用微分的方法，先对个人用量进行研究和预测，并积分到总患病人数，求出所需用量。
2, for problem two, weenvisage the establishment of regression model to determine whether the regionerupted in other diseases, drug production and drug using dynamic modelprediction of new disease. Using differential method, the first to research andpredict the personal consumption, and points to the total number of patients,calculate the amount.
3、我们设想建立最优模型讨论如何使用公共福利基金和美国预算来支持药物研发工作。
3, we discuss how touse the idea of establishing the optimal model of public welfare fund and theUnited States budget support to drug research.
3.1.4 Solution and Result
1) we collected andanalyzed by the African countries since 2006 Ebola infection cases, made thefollowing table:
Table 1: The number of peopleinfected with Ebola
Africancountries this year:
We found that thespreadsheet data into two categories, one is the Congo and other countries in2014 before the outbreak of the Ebola outbreak found many times. Another isSierra Leone and other countries, although not found in the 2014 Ebolapatients, but suddenly erupted in 2014. We as the representative of the Congo,made in recent years, the number of patients and deaths in the line graph, andthe fitted curve in Sierra Leone, as follows：
Figure 1: Congo over the years the number of
deaths in patientswith Ebola virus
Figure 2:Sierra Leone in 2014 the number of patients and deaths scatterp lot
From the picture you can clearlysee the first class of the Congo and other countries due to strengthenawareness and other reasons, the Ebola virus infection hazard is reduced, theimage showed a downward trend; while the second group of countries preachedfunction quadratic function. Thus, we believe that the hardest-hit countriesshould be in the second category of countries. In the above data, Liberia is acountry now known to most patients and the number of deaths. Because no databefore Liberia, so we assume that appeared in early 2014 the first patient,according to the number of patients and in the end, the use of sir model, wemade a graph. The same way, we made model for Sierra Leone as follows:
According to the image, wefind that the value of K greater Sierra Leone, which we believe is more likelyto become Africa's Sierra Leone, the most serious epidemic of Ebola.
Furthermore, we assume that in theabsence of any medication and treatment, analyze and forecast the expected rateof change of the number of Ebola virus infection in Sierra Leone, made ascatter plot and linear fit through matlab image obtained as follows:
From the visual indicators and statisticaltests, we can see the effect of a good fitting and forecasting.
2)
For large data, we usethe differential method, first study the case of a man sick of drug use, andthen the results obtained by integrating drug production.
In general, you wantto play the role of a drug must be absorbed by the human body, transport,metabolism and drain, in order to study the efficacy of new drugs the disease,the way we used to establish multiple dose pharmacokinetic model.
In clinical drug treatment forEbola requires multiple doses, so that the blood concentration over a longenough period of time in a safe and effective therapeutic range, here, weassume a compartment model for Ebola treatment times repeat static livesituation.
In rapid intravenous injection ofthe vaccine is assumed, in line with the kinetics of one-compartment model,then, every so often, when an intravenous metering D, plasma concentrations ofC with time t will be how to change?
After intravenous injection ofthe first dose, “C - t” relationship:
Wherein, obviously, the highest concentration, the lowest concentration, denoted by
Understandably, after intravenousinjection of a second dose, there
After intravenous injection of nagents, there
`````````(1)
It can be seen, afterrepeated intravenous n agents, blood concentration variation with time of
Assuming n is sufficiently large,so that each reach steady state plasma concentration, then, of (1) to obtainthe limit, so that the variation of the steady-state concentration of
The highest concentration and thelowest concentrations
In a time of administration, themean steady at a concentration of
In the above concentration was obtained by integral dose, the region atotal of need for:
3.1.6 Strength and Weakness
l Strength: Assuming the full model in place.
l Weakness: Due to lack of data, there are many problems a hypothesis.
IV.Conclusions
4.1Conclusions of the problem
l （1）we compute the expected changes in the number of Ebora virus infection rate of people,prediction of Sierra Leone for Ebora virus infection the most serious Africacountries, and estimate the cost.
l (2) we have calculated the individual dosage, so as to calculate theamount of total
l (3) we use the public welfare fund and America budgets to supportpharmaceutical R & D work
4.2 Methods used in our models
l (1) we use SIR model and the fitting curve is obtained the expectedrate of change, infectious of the countries with the most serious and cost
l (2) we use the regression model and the dynamic prediction oftheoretical model of new drug disease drug production and to determine thetotal output by using differential method
l (3) we use the optimal model, the use of public welfare fund andAmerican budgets to support pharmaceutical R & D work
4.3 Applications of our models
This model can help the government andrelated social organizations to understand the epidemic situation of AfricaEbola virus brings, and according to the related policy establishment of such amodel or organization of the corresponding action. At the same time, alsoprovided to the government how to allocate funds to support the national budgetand other pharmaceutical companies, and the formulation of relevant policies toencourage inter enterprise cooperation to jointly cope with the Ebola epidemic,is of great significance to the prevention and control and the futureintervention.
VI.References
[1] 360baike 《埃博拉》 http://baike.so.com/doc/5512098.html2014.11.28
[2] 潮声 《SIR模型介绍》http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_496816920100aaen.html2014.11.29
VII.Appendix
The first questionSir Model equation:
functiony=ill(t,x)
a=1;b=0.3;
y=[a*x(1)*x(2)-b*x(1),-a*x(1)*x(2)]';
ts=0:50;
x0=[0.02,0.98];
[t,x]=ode45('ill',ts,x0);
plot(t,x(:,1),t,x(:,2)),grid,pause
plot(x(:,2),x(:,1)),gridon;
end
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