数据分析如何进行预测分析_可以进行预测分析来防止未来的大流行

数据分析如何进行预测分析

As science gets more advanced, we realise how interconnected our world is. The smallest things can have the biggest impacts. For instance, researchers are today looking at how the sand that every year is blown from Africa through the Atlantic, is actually impacting the number of hurricanes that end up hitting the East coast of the US. Turns out, the small grains of sand ‘pierce’ through the air currents, which are growing hurricanes, absorbing the moisture and consequently cutting off the ‘fuel’ that would allow the hurricane to grow.

随着科学的进步，我们意识到世界之间的相互联系。 最小的事物可能产生最大的影响。 例如，今天的研究人员正在研究每年非洲从大西洋经大西洋吹来的沙子实际上如何影响最终袭击美国东海岸的飓风数量。 事实证明，沙粒中的细小颗粒通过气流“刺穿”，从而形成飓风，吸收了水分，因此切断了使飓风生长的“燃料”。

That starts to give you an appreciation of the big picture. Things that are happening in one part of the world, don’t just stay in that part of the world.

这开始使您对全局有一个了解。 在世界某个地区发生的事情，不仅停留在世界的这一部分。

In an ever more globalised world, this is even more true for diseases, to the point where the question of a global disease is not “if”, but “when”. Aside from the evident life and health casualties, a pandemic has also an elevated economic impact, costing on average between $5 and $8 trillion to the global economy.

在一个日益全球化的世界中，疾病更是如此，以至于全球疾病的问题不是“如果”，而是“何时”。 除了明显的生命和健康伤亡之外，大流行还对经济产生了更高的影响，全球经济平均为此付出5到8万亿美元。

More specifically, and according to the World Economic Forum, fighting COVID-19 could cost 500 times as much as pandemic prevention measures. Some experts estimated that COVID-19 pandemic could end up costing between $8.1 and $15.8 trillion globally.

更具体地说，根据世界经济论坛的说法，与COVID-19作战的费用可能是防大流行措施的500倍。 一些专家估计，COVID-19大流行可能最终在全球造成8.1至15.8万亿美元的损失。

Right now, data is simply not being effectively collected, analysed or deployed to drive decisions to stop outbreaks on their tracks and this year’s pandemic is a live example of that. However, if this has taught us something is that, we are in the age of an information revolution where Big data & Artificial Intelligence (AI) can help us do more informed decisions every day. Shifting from reaction to prevention, reducing the impacts of shocks and thus improve the resilience of our systems.

目前，根本没有有效地收集，分析或部署数据来推动决策以阻止疾病爆发，而今年的流行就是一个活生生的例子。 但是，如果这告诉我们的是事实，那么我们正处于信息革命的时代，大数据与人工智能(AI)可以帮助我们每天做出更明智的决策。 从React转向预防，减少冲击的影响，从而提高我们系统的弹性。

There is growing optimism that newer approaches, including mobile-phone location tracking and data mining of search engines and social media, can help deliver a faster, more refined picture of where diseases are unfolding and might head to next.

人们越来越乐观地认为，更新的方法(包括手机位置跟踪以及搜索引擎和社交媒体的数据挖掘)可以帮助您更快，更精确地了解疾病正在发生的地方，并可能下一步发展。

依靠AI预防下一次爆发 (Leaning on AI to Prevent the Next Outbreak)

According to some of the most recent reports, AI had detected this coronavirus at its very early stages. The company BlueDot, which uses machine learning to monitor the spread of contagious diseases around the world, had alerted about the rapid increase in pulmonary disease in Wuhan late last year.

根据一些最新报告，AI在早期就检测到了这种冠状病毒。 BlueDot公司使用机器学习来监测全球传染病的传播，该公司去年年底曾对武汉市肺病的Swift增长表示警觉。

More specifically, BlueDot gathers data on over 150 diseases and syndromes around the world searching every 15 minutes, 24 hours a day, including official data from organisations like the Center for Disease Control or the World Health Organization but also data from less official sources like worldwide travel patterns, environmental and animal data, social media sensing. It then classifies this data into a taxonomy and applies machine learning to identify relevant flagged cases for further analysis.

更具体地说，BlueDot每天24小时每15分钟收集一次有关全球150多种疾病和综合征的数据，其中包括疾病控制中心或世界卫生组织等组织的官方数据，也包括来自全球的不太官方的数据出行方式，环境和动物数据，社交媒体感知。 然后，它将这些数据分类为一个分类法，并应用机器学习来识别相关的标记案例以进行进一步分析。

While these are still early stages for AI, if enough trust was given to such a model, it could have helped authorities prepare, alert and take the necessary measures which could have perhaps prevented the outbreak in the first place. It is not unwarranted to think that going forward more attention may be given to these signals.

尽管这些仍是AI的早期阶段，但如果对这种模型给予足够的信任，它可能会帮助当局准备，发出警报并采取必要的措施，而这些措施可能首先可以阻止爆发。 并非毫无疑问地认为，可以对这些信号给予更多关注。

One can logically expect for these systems to only improve with time, more so since every single day there is more and more publicly available data that can be taken into account to more accurately pinpoint the beginnings of what could derive into an outbreak, or even to sense conditions or potential hotspots of what could lead to a brewing disease. Analysing such vast pools of data can be possible due to the amount and the speed at which AI systems can go through the data to detect patterns.

从逻辑上可以预期，随着时间的推移，这些系统只会有所改善，因此，由于每天都有越来越多的公开数据可供考虑，以便更准确地查明爆发原因的起点，甚至可以感知可能导致酿造疾病的条件或潜在热点。 由于AI系统可以通过数据来检测模式的数量和速度，因此可以分析如此庞大的数据池。

Although anticipating the appearance of a virus will carry some margin of error, especially at the beginning, since the AI is as good as the quality and volume of data it is fed, over time it could still detect conditions instantly and more accurately than the experts who initially fed it.

尽管预测病毒的出现会带来一些误差，尤其是在开始时，由于AI与其所馈送的数据的质量和数量一样好，但是随着时间的推移，它仍然可以比专家更快，更准确地检测到状况。最初喂它的人。

This might be only the beginning of an era where applying predictive modelling to millions of data points can help detect the danger before it appears. For example, one way of doing it could be using probabilistic forecasting, data mining and scenario planning, then improving the models over time with deep reinforcement learning so that the system eventually becomes autonomous.

这可能只是一个时代的开始，在该时代中，将预测性建模应用于数百万个数据点可以帮助在危险出现之前进行检测。 例如，一种实现方法是使用概率预测，数据挖掘和方案规划，然后通过深度强化学习随时间改进模型，以使系统最终变得自治。

从React型转变为预测型 (Shifting from Reactive to Predictive)

While the ability to predict the future with certainty is not something that can be said lightly, this uncertainty could be reduced through predictive analysis. Predicting the course of an epidemic, even after it has started, can still help authorities plan better to contain its spread.

虽然不能轻易说出确定未来的能力，但可以通过预测分析来减少这种不确定性。 即使已经开始流行，对流行的过程进行预测仍可以帮助当局更好地计划以控制流行。

However, the true potential will come from being able to accurately identify areas with high degree of probability for a potential viral disease to be born, which has the ability to easily grow into an outbreak, therefore predicting or anticipating the event.

然而，真正的潜力将来自能够准确地识别出潜在病毒性疾病高发区域的能力，该区域很容易成长为暴发，因此可以预测或预测该事件。

By taking into account inherent or created conditions of the specific area, travel patterns, food habits, micro and macro environmental parameters and generally using global datasets on diseases to detect weak signals and then mapping risk-prone areas we could then use AI to predict the danger.

通过考虑特定区域的固有或创造条件，出行方式，饮食习惯，微观和宏观环境参数，并且通常使用疾病的全球数据集来检测弱信号，然后绘制易患风险区域的图，然后我们可以使用AI来预测危险。

The crucial element here is the broadness, quality and detail of the data since the model needs to make predictions at a global scale. Therefore, to accurately forecast diseases across the world and not just in a few locations the data needs to be expansive.

这里的关键因素是数据的广度，质量和细节，因为该模型需要在全球范围内进行预测。 因此，要准确地预测世界范围内的疾病，而不仅仅是在少数几个地方，就需要扩展数据。

As opposed to a few years ago, the ability of the latest software to listen to a much wider range of sources and signals is significantly higher and should only increase in the coming years.

与几年前相比，最新软件收听更大范围的信号源和信号的能力明显更高，并且只会在未来几年内增加。

预测模型的一些挑战 (Some of the challenges of the predictive models)

Although exciting, this technological advance is mostly fuelled by very variable and frequently inaccurate data, which is currently generating doubts on the veracity of the data sources but also, if the model does offer predicative scenarios, it could become less accurate as arising cases are prevented.

尽管令人兴奋，但这种技术进步主要是由变化不定且经常不准确的数据所推动的，当前，这些数据使人们对数据源的准确性产生怀疑，而且，如果模型确实提供了预测性方案，则由于避免了发生的情况，它的准确性可能会降低。 。

What’s more, while trying to predict potential outcomes in other industries may be somewhat simpler, accurately looking into future epidemics or outbreaks could be intrinsically linked to our current biological and medical knowledge. Even now, after the contagion occurred there has been confusion over symptoms and the way the virus passes between people. Therefore, trying to predict where a disease may spread from hundreds of sites is a far more complex task then one would imagine.

而且，尽管试图预测其他行业的潜在结果可能会更简单，但准确地调查未来的流行病或暴发可能与我们当前的生物学和医学知识具有内在联系。 即使到了现在，传染病发生后，人们对病毒的症状和传播方式仍感到困惑。 因此，试图预测一种疾病可能从数百个部位传播的位置比人们想象的要复杂得多。

One of the main concerns of feeding the AI with inconsistent data is the criticality of the decisions to be made, specifically when applied to health. It will therefore be essential for the data to triangulate between quality, reliability and agility and find a balance between the trade-offs between agility and reliability depending on the context at hand. As for the confidence or reliability of the data itself, risk can be minimised if more data is made open to the public for analysis, which then calls for a hard conversation on privacy.

向AI提供不一致的数据的主要问题之一是要做出的决策的重要性，特别是在应用于健康时。 因此，至关重要的是，数据必须在质量，可靠性和敏捷性之间进行三角划分，并根据当前的环境在敏捷性和可靠性之间进行权衡。 至于数据本身的置信度或可靠性，如果向公众开放更多数据进行分析，则可以将风险降到最低，这需要就隐私问题进行艰苦的对话。

Although it wouldn’t necessarily solve privacy issues, some distributed ledgers (e.g. Blockchain) could solve some of the other issues by bringing more decentralization, transparency and guarantee of data integrity.

尽管不一定解决隐私问题，但某些分布式分类帐(例如，区块链)可以通过带来更多的去中心化，透明性和数据完整性保证来解决其他一些问题。

未来机会 (Future opportunities)

AI has shown much promise in augmenting human capabilities. Certainly, the combination of the current and future available data with our intelligence and the power of AI will create more innovation and get us more prepared for future risks. As with every crisis, we have become stronger, more innovative and creative, hopefully leaving societies more prepared to face such threats.

人工智能在增强人类能力方面显示出巨大的希望。 当然，将当前和将来的可用数据与我们的智能和AI的强大功能相结合，将带来更多创新，并使我们为未来的风险做好更多的准备。 与每一次危机一样，我们变得更加强大，更具创新和创造力，希望社会更加准备面对这样的威胁。

COVID-19 attracted a lot of attention to the financial impact, but even the cost of common infectious diseases can be enormous.

COVID-19对于财务影响引起了很多关注，但即使是普通传染病的代价也可能是巨大的。

Certainly now, investors and nation leaders are more aware than before of the importance of having not only robust health systems and solutions to threats but also predictive insights to prevent those threats where possible, or at least see them coming. And since fighting pandemics like COVID-19 could cost 500 times as much as pandemic prevention measures, it is not unreasonable to think that the era of predictive analytics is just starting. More so, considering the accelerating number of catastrophes occurring and which are still expected to happen (particularly given the current global warming crisis we are facing), the necessity to move fast is becoming pressing.

当然，现在，投资者和国家领导人比以往任何时候都更加意识到，不仅拥有强大的卫生系统和对威胁的解决方案，而且具有预测性的见识以尽可能防止或至少防止威胁的重要性。 而且，由于与COVID-19等大流行病作斗争的成本可能是大流行预防措施的500倍，因此可以认为预测分析时代才刚刚开始并不无道理。 更重要的是，考虑到正在发生的灾难仍在加速，并且仍然有望发生(特别是考虑到当前我们正面临的全球变暖危机)，因此必须Swift采取行动。

Leveraging Big Data & AI to deliver predictive analytics will definitely improve decision making not only in healthcare but across all sectors and industries.

利用大数据和人工智能提供预测分析，不仅可以改善医疗保健领域的决策，还可以改善所有部门和行业的决策。

翻译自: https://medium.com/carre4/could-predictive-analytics-prevent-future-pandemics-a2d1830d075b

数据分析如何进行预测分析