广州有巨头公司吗
There is no doubt with the recent events across the world, the technology giants have emerged to be some of the most valuable companies in the world. These include companies like Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google (Alphabet).
毫无疑问，全球最近发生的事件表明，技术巨头已经成为世界上最有价值的公司之一。 这些公司包括Facebook，Apple，Amazon，Microsoft和Google(Alphabet)。
The so-called FAAMG (Instead of Netflix, it is replaced with Microsoft) club accounts for nearly 6.6 Trillion dollars of market capitalization (as of July 23). To put it in perspective, these five companies account for almost a quarter of the entire market capitalization of the S&P 500.
截至7月23日，所谓的FAAMG(代替Netflix，由Microsoft代替Netflix)俱乐部的市值接近6.6万亿美元。 确切地说，这五家公司约占标准普尔500指数总市值的四分之一。
Even at enormous sizes, we’ve seen big companies fall for a variety of reasons, including bankruptcy to hostile takeovers (e.g., Compaq and HP).
即使规模巨大，我们也已经看到大公司由于各种原因而倒闭，包括因敌意收购而破产(例如Compaq和HP)。
As Jeff Bezos stated himself, even at Amazon’s size, he foresees that even one day perhaps in the future, Amazon will inevitably fall as well.
正如杰夫·贝佐斯(Jeff Bezos)所说的那样，即使是在亚马逊的规模上，他也预见甚至在未来的某一天，亚马逊也不可避免地会倒下。
“Amazon is not too big to fail,” Bezos said, in a recording of the meeting that CNBC has heard. “In fact, I predict one day Amazon will fail. Amazon will go bankrupt. If you look at large companies, their lifespans tend to be 30-plus years, not a hundred-plus years.” — Jeff Bezos
贝佐斯在CNBC听到的一次会议录音中说：“亚马逊不是太大，不能倒闭。” “事实上，我预测亚马逊有一天会失败。 亚马逊将破产。 如果您查看大型公司，它们的寿命通常是30多年，而不是100多年。” —杰夫·贝索斯(Jeff Bezos)
However, out of these five tech giants, which one has the most likelihood of falling first?
但是，在这五家科技巨头中，哪一家最有可能倒下？
Let’s take a deeper dive into each starting with the first two least likely to fall.
让我们更深入地研究每一个，从前两个可能性下降的可能性开始。
亚马孙 (Amazon)
Segueing straight into Amazon, Bezos has grown this behemoth from his garage into one of the biggest tech companies in the world today. Launched on July 16, 1995, Amazon originally started off selling books before venturing into other products.
贝佐斯直接进入亚马逊，将这个庞然大物从他的车库中发展成为当今世界上最大的科技公司之一。 亚马逊于1995年7月16日成立，最初开始销售书籍，然后才尝试其他产品。
Even with Bezos’s comments, Amazon has one of the most diversified portfolios within the tech giants, and COVID-19 has positioned them in a fortunate position with massive growth in the last few months. Their shares are up by more than 60% and they have increased their market cap by more than $600B in 2020.
即使有贝佐斯的评论，亚马逊仍是科技巨头中多元化程度最高的产品组合之一，而COVID-19在过去几个月中以巨大的增长使他们处于幸运的位置。 他们的股票上涨了60％以上，并且他们的市值在2020年增加了超过$ 600B。
As seen above, Amazon is extremely diversified with products ranging from its their e-commerce platform to its cloud and subscription services.
如上所示，亚马逊的产品极其多样化，从其电子商务平台到其云和订阅服务。
亚马逊拥有的独特职位之一是其投资组合同时触及B2C和B2B领域。 (One of the unique positions Amazon has is its portfolio hits both B2C and B2B segments.)
With this, their revenue growth is one of the highest from the tech giants, growing at a rate of 26.39% year over year since the quarter ending March 31, 2020.
以此，他们的收入增长是科技巨头中最高的之一， 自2020年3月31日结束的季度以来 ，其年增长率为26.39％。
Here are some of their recent figures:
Amazon revenue for the quarter ending March 31, 2020, was $75.452B, a 26.39% increase year-over-year.
截至2020年3月31日的季度末，亚马逊收入为$ 75.452B ， 同比增长26.39％ 。
Amazon revenue for the twelve months ending March 31, 2020, was $296.274B, a 22.66% increase year-over-year.
截至2020年3月31日的十二个月中，亚马逊收入为$ 296.274B ， 同比增长22.66％ 。
Amazon’s annual revenue for 2019 was $280.522B, a 20.45% increase from 2018.
亚马逊2019年的年收入为$ 280.522B ，比2018年增长20.45％ 。
Amazon’s annual revenue for 2018 was $232.887B, a 30.93% increase from 2017.
亚马逊2018年的年收入为232.887B美元 ，较2017年增长30.93％ 。
他们还是电子商务和云计算的市场领导者 (They are also the market leaders in e-commerce and cloud)
Amazon is also the market leader in their respective product space. Recently, they have gobbled up even more market share in the e-commerce market as many have turned to online shopping due to COVID-19. On top of that, Amazon is the biggest public cloud vendor, owning almost 1/3 of the market with the segment looking to grow continuously.
亚马逊还是各自产品领域的市场领导者。 最近，由于COVID-19，他们已经在电子商务市场中吞噬了更多的市场份额，因为许多人转向在线购物。 最重要的是， 亚马逊是最大的公共云供应商，拥有近1/3的市场，并且该细分市场希望持续增长。
With COVID-19, Amazon has been in prime (pun intended) position to capitalize and will most likely drive this momentum in following years. Even if there is a tech crash, Amazon is most likely one of the best positions to ride the wave out.
凭借COVID-19，亚马逊一直处于资本化的主要(双关语)位置，并且很可能在未来几年推动这一势头。 即使发生技术崩溃，亚马逊也很可能是浪潮中的最佳人选之一。
微软 (Microsoft)
Microsoft is the oldest on the list but one of the most successful companies in the world. Founded in 1975 by Bill Gates and Paul Allen, it has had its ups and downs since its inception as well as leadership changes in the last few decades.
微软是名单上最古老的公司，但也是世界上最成功的公司之一。 它由比尔·盖茨(Bill Gates)和保罗·艾伦(Paul Allen)于1975年创立，自成立以来一直风风雨雨，在过去的几十年中领导层也发生了变化。
Like Amazon, Mircosoft is extremely diversified even with runner up products like Bing.
像亚马逊一样，即使使用了必应这样的亚军产品，Mircosoft也非常多样化。
Bing, however, is still profitable growing at a rate of 9–14% per quarter and still accounts for almost 6.4% of Microsoft’s total revenue (more than a service like Linkedin). They are also growing at a modest 14.56% since the last quarter of March 31 in 2020, putting them in a favorable growth rate over some of the other tech giants in the list.
但是，必应仍以每季度9-14％的速度增长，并且仍占微软总收入的6.4％(超过Linkedin之类的服务)。 自2020年3月31日最后一个季度以来 ， 它们的增长率 也为14.56％ ，与列表中的其他一些科技巨头相比，处于有利的增长率。
Microsoft revenue for the quarter ending March 31, 2020 was $35.021B, a 14.56% increase year-over-year.
微软截至2020年3月31日的季度收入为$ 35.021B ， 同比增长14.56％ 。
Microsoft revenue for the twelve months ending March 31, 2020, was $138.699B, a 13.49% increase year-over-year.
截至2020年3月31日的十二个月中，Microsoft收入为$ 138.699B ， 同比增长13.49％ 。
Microsoft’s annual revenue for 2019 was $125.843B, a 14.03% increase from 2018.
微软2019年的年收入为$ 125.843B ，比2018年增长14.03％ 。
Microsoft’s annual revenue for 2018 was $110.36B, a 14.28% increase from 2017.
微软2018年的年收入为$ 110.36B ，比2017年增长14.28％ 。
最大优势=企业 (Biggest advantage = Enterprise)
One of the major advantages Microsoft also has over other businesses is their influence within the enterprise space. With this, the company has had significant success with not only Microsoft Azure and their office products but recently, with products like Microsoft Teams.
微软与其他企业相比的主要优势之一是它们在企业领域的影响力。 这样，该公司不仅在Microsoft Azure及其办公产品方面取得了巨大的成功，而且最近在Microsoft Teams等产品上也取得了巨大的成功。
With such a big enterprise footprint, Microsoft has been able to expand newer products into its B2B customer base and also grow their cloud footprint.
凭借如此庞大的企业覆盖范围 ，Microsoft能够将更新的产品扩展到其B2B客户基础，并且还增加了其云覆盖范围。
This diversified portfolio of products, as well as a huge footprint within the enterprise space, cements Microsoft for many more years to come and will be the unlikely tech giant to fall first along with Amazon.
这种多元化的产品组合以及在企业领域中的巨大影响力，使微软在未来的许多年中稳固了地位，并将成为与亚马逊并驾齐驱的不大可能的科技巨头。
The only drawback is, in a lot of these product categories, including search, cloud, and gaming, they are only second to the market leader (E.g., Google for search and Amazon for cloud).
唯一的缺点是 ，在许多产品类别(包括搜索，云和游戏)中，它们仅次于市场领导者(例如，用于搜索的Google和用于云的Amazon)。
The only drawback is, in a lot of these product categories, including search, cloud, and gaming, they are only second to the market leader (E.g., Google for search and Amazon for cloud).
唯一的缺点是，在许多此类产品中，包括搜索，云和游戏，它们仅次于市场领导者(例如，用于搜索的Google以及用于云的亚马逊)。
苹果 (Apple)
There is no doubt that Apple is one of the biggest brands in the world and is one of the most successful tech companies that have built their empire on physical products rather than cloud or SaaS.
毫无疑问，苹果公司是世界上最大的品牌之一，也是最成功的科技公司之一，它们的帝国建立在物理产品而非云或SaaS上。
Although many might say that Apple is starting to lose its prime, it is still one of the most valuable companies in the world with a massive revenue margin on its products.
尽管许多人可能会说苹果开始失去优势，但它仍然是世界上最有价值的公司之一，其产品的利润很高。
大优势=中国 (Big Advantage = China)
One of the biggest advantages Apple has over any other tech giant is its footprint in China. It has been one of the only tech giants that have been able to infiltrate not only China but also produce a cult following on their products. This is why over 1/5 of their revenue comes directly from China alone.
苹果在任何其他科技巨头中所拥有的最大优势之一就是其在中国的足迹。 它不仅是唯一能够渗透到中国，而且在其产品上引起追随者的仅有的科技巨头之一。 这就是为什么他们超过1/5的收入直接来自中国。
One of the significant disadvantages Apple has, however, is its reliance on physical products. The majority of their revenue comes from their iPhone and Mac products, which have been around for decades.
但是，苹果的主要缺点之一是其对物理产品的依赖。 他们的大部分收入来自iPhone和Mac产品，这些产品已经存在了数十年。
Without proper innovation, they risk losing out to competitions. This is seen from recent results with only a growth rate of 0.51% YOY since March 31, 2020.
没有适当的创新，他们就有可能输给竞争对手。 从最近的结果可以看出，自2020年3月31日以来，年增长率仅为0.51％。
Apple revenue for the quarter ending March 31, 2020 was $58.313B, a 0.51% increase year-over-year.
截至2020年3月31日的季度末，苹果收入为$ 58.313B ， 同比增长0.51％ 。
Apple revenue for the twelve months ending March 31, 2020, was $267.981B, a 3.67% increase year-over-year.
截至2020年3月31日的十二个月中，苹果收入为267.981B美元 ， 同比增长3.67％ 。
Apple’s annual revenue for 2019 was $260.174B, a 2.04% decline from 2018.
苹果公司2019年的年收入为$ 260.174B ，比2018年下降2.04％ 。
Apple’s annual revenue for 2018 was $265.595B, a 15.86% increase from 2017.
苹果2018年的年收入为265.595B美元 ，较2017年增长了15.86％ 。
Although they are innovating as seen within their push into the financial services market, this space is already quite crowded, and they will still be relying on customers who are using Apple products.
尽管从进入金融服务市场的过程中可以看到他们正在创新，但这个领域已经非常拥挤，他们仍将依赖使用Apple产品的客户。
They are again, however, doing relatively well and have major advantages over other tech giants with footprints in China as well as a relatively diversified portfolio compared to others in the list.
但是，它们再次表现相对良好，并且与其他在中国拥有足迹以及相对多元化的投资组合的科技巨头相比，具有主要优势。
Google(字母) (Google (Alphabet))
Google (referring to Google for the sake of simplicity in this article) is known for its search engine but also its innovation in many product areas.
Google(在本文中为简单起见，将其称为Google)以其搜索引擎而著称， 同时在许多产品领域也具有创新性。
This product is actually how Google makes most of its money (from ads). Google’s advertising revenues represent over 83% of the total company’s total revenue which could cause potential problems down the road, even if the company has been attempting to diversify its portfolio for years.
实际上，该产品就是Google通过广告赚取大部分收入的方式。 Google的广告收入占公司总收入的83％以上 ，即使该公司多年来一直在努力使其投资组合多元化，也可能会导致潜在的问题。
错误的云方法 (Wrong approach to cloud)
Even with Google’s giant footprint, it has always been in Amazon’s shadows with cloud. Amazon launched its cloud platform in March 2006 whilst Google only followed a few years later.
即使Google拥有巨大的足迹，它也始终被Amazon遮盖着云。 亚马逊于2006年3月启动了其云平台，而谷歌仅在几年后才推出。
They also went for startups and small businesses rather than enterprises.
AWS also decided to be very developer-friendly whilst when Google launched App Engine in 2008, they did not support a number of key developer languages and thus ended up being ‘enterprise unfriendly’.
AWS还决定对开发人员非常友好，而当Google在2008年推出App Engine时，它们不支持多种主要开发人员语言，因此最终“对企业不友好”。
“We didn’t get the right stepping stone into the cloud,” — Eric Schmidt, Google’s former executive chairman at the Next 2016 conference.
“我们没有将正确的垫脚石打入云端，” —谷歌前任董事长，2016年下届会议的埃里克·施密特 ( Eric Schmidt) 。
Google拥有的赎回因素之一是Youtube的增长。 (One of the redeeming factors that Google has is Youtube’s growth.)
Youtube’s growth rate far exceeds Google’s overall ad revenue which only grew by 16% YOY in 2019. Youtube instead grew at an amazing rate of 36%, hitting 15 Billion in 2019.
Youtube的增长率远远超过Google的整体广告收入，后者在2019年仅同比增长16％。Youtube 却以惊人的36％的速度增长，在2019年达到150亿 。
谷歌自身的增长率与上一季度相比稳定地保持在13.26％左右，但是却逐年下降。
In 2020, with digital advertising spending taking a hit, their growth will be even slower.
到2020年，随着数字广告支出受到打击，其增长速度将更加缓慢。
Here have been their last few years of results:
这是他们最近几年的结果：
Alphabet revenue for the quarter ending March 31, 2020 was $41.159B, a 13.26% increase year-over-year.
截至2020年3月31日的季度末，字母收入为$ 41.159B ， 同比增长13.26％ 。
Alphabet revenue for the twelve months ending March 31, 2020 was $166.677B, a 17.37% increase year-over-year.
截至2020年3月31日的十二个月中，Alphabet收入为$ 166.677B ， 同比增长17.37％ 。
Alphabet annual revenue for 2019 was $161.857B, a 18.3% increase from 2018.
Alphabet的2019年年收入为$ 161.857B ，比2018年增长18.3％ 。
Alphabet annual revenue for 2018 was $136.819B, a 23.42% increase from 2017.
Alphabet 2018年的年收入为$ 136.819B ，比2017年增长23.42％ 。
In my opinion, although Google’s portfolio is weaker than the tech giants listed previously, it is still making great attempts to diversify their portfolio continually. (Google Cloud is still growing at an incredible rate, outpacing Microsoft and Amazon at 52%).
我认为，尽管Google的投资组合比以前列出的科技巨头要弱一些，但它仍在努力不断地使其投资组合多样化。 ( Google Cloud仍以令人难以置信的速度增长，超过了Microsoft和Amazon 52％的增长率 )。
One key factor is their investment into AI and has shown dominance within the industry, with some analysts stating that Google will win the so-called ‘AI Race’.
一个关键因素是他们对AI的投资，并且在行业中已显示出统治地位，一些分析师指出Google将赢得所谓的“ AI竞赛”。
第二个关键因素是它们在搜索中的优势。 (The second key factor is their dominance in search.)
Google is still far bigger than any other search engine in the world, including Baidu. As of April 2020, they still maintain a huge 86% of the world’s market share, effectively being a monopoly in this space. This still positions them as the clear dominant player in the market with no sign of anyone toppling them in years to come and therefore can be something they can still rely on as they build their portfolio out.
Google的规模仍然远远超过世界上任何其他搜索引擎，包括百度。 截至2020年4月，它们仍然保持着全球86％的巨大市场份额，实际上是该领域的垄断者。 这仍然将它们定位为市场上明显的主导者，没有迹象表明未来几年会有任何人倒闭，因此他们在建立投资组合时仍然可以依靠。
脸书 (Facebook)
One of the biggest social networks in the world, Facebook, also owns products like Instagram and Whatsapp to help build them this social media empire.
Facebook是世界上最大的社交网络之一，还拥有Instagram和Whatsapp之类的产品，以帮助他们建立这个社交媒体帝国。
With that note, Facebook has and will continue to struggle over the next years to come.
基于这一点，Facebook在未来的几年中已经并将继续奋斗。
全部包含在广告中 (All in on ads)
As seen above, Facebook is very reliant on ads on its social network platforms, meaning its revenue portfolio is not as diversified as some of the other tech giants.
如上所示，Facebook非常依赖其社交网络平台上的广告，这意味着其收入组合并不像其他一些科技巨头那样多样化。
Although Google may have a similar issue, they are currently innovating in new areas of tech beyond search engines to help drive revenue growth.
尽管Google可能有类似的问题，但他们目前正在搜索引擎之外的新技术领域进行创新，以帮助推动收入增长。
Facebook instead has seen in their yearly revenue growth drop since 2017, and with COVID-19, businesses are spending less on ads, which is Facebook’s sole revenue driver.
取而代之的是，自2017年以来 ， Facebook的年度收入增长有所下降 ，而COVID-19使得企业在广告上的支出减少了，这是Facebook唯一的收入推动力。
Facebook revenue for the quarter ending March 31, 2020 was $17.737B, a 17.64% increase year-over-year.
截至2020年3月31日的季度末，Facebook收入为$ 17.737B ， 同比增长17.64％ 。
Facebook revenue for the twelve months ending March 31, 2020, was $73.357B, a 24.44% increase year-over-year.
截至2020年3月31日的十二个月中，Facebook收入为$ 73.357B ， 同比增长24.44％ 。
Facebook’s annual revenue for 2019 was $70.697B, a 26.61% increase from 2018.
Facebook的2019年年收入为$ 70.697B ，比2018年增长26.61％ 。
Facebook’s annual revenue for 2018 was $55.838B, a 37.35% increase from 2017.
Facebook的2018年年收入为$ 55.838B ，较2017年增长37.35％ 。
Facebook’s annual revenue for 2017 was $40.653B, a 47.09% increase from 2016.
Facebook 2017年的年收入为$ 40.653B ，比2016年增长47.09％ 。
巨大的竞争 (Huge Competition)
Even if digital advertising slows down, Google still has the advantage of being the clear market leader by a mile. Although Facebook is still the market leader, they are slowing down and being hit by competition.
即使数字广告放慢了速度，Google仍然具有成为明显市场领导者的优势。 尽管Facebook仍然是市场领导者，但它们正在放缓并受到竞争的打击。
The highest drop in Facebook’s market share was in the USA recently — from 76% in December 2017 to 52% in December 2018. Facebook is also losing market share to apps like Pinterest and Twitter, and newer apps like Tiktok clouding the market.
Facebook的市场份额下降幅度最大的是最近在美国的市场，从2017年12月的76％下降到2018年12月的52％ 。Facebook的市场份额也因Pinterest和Twitter等应用程序以及Tiktok等较新的应用程序蒙上了阴影。
Facebook is also in a battle with more local social media applications as well like Line (Japan) and Kakao (Korea).
Facebook还与Line(日本)和Kakao(韩国)等更多本地社交媒体应用程序进行斗争。
With all this competition as well as recent government regulations, Facebook faces rough times ahead and there would be no surprise if they will continually drop in growth year on year.
面对所有这些竞争以及最近的政府法规，Facebook面临着艰难的时期，如果它们继续逐年下降，也就不足为奇了。
摘要 (Summary)
It’s no doubt that through this data and revenue breakdown, Facebook, although still a stable tech giant, is at risk from not only its competitors but also its undiversified portfolio.
毫无疑问，通过这些数据和收入细分，尽管Facebook仍然是一家稳定的科技巨头，但它不仅面临竞争对手的威胁，而且面临着多元化投资组合的威胁。
Although it is attempting to do this (such as its stab at gaming), it will be many years before these will contribute to its revenue portfolio.
尽管它正试图做到这一点(例如，在游戏方面的努力)，但要为其收入组合做出贡献还需要很多年。
In my opinion, Facebook is the most likely to crash out first from any of the tech giants on the FAAMG list and even compared to some other tech giants as well.
我认为，Facebook最有可能首先从FAAMG名单上的任何一家科技巨头中脱颖而出，甚至与其他一些科技巨头相比也是如此。
翻译自: https://medium.com/yought-blog/which-tech-giant-is-likely-to-fall-first-7f40260bff58
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