风能matlab仿真_风能产量预测—深度学习项目

风能matlab仿真

DL DATATHON- AI4Impact

DL DATATHON- AI4影响

Published by Team AI Traders — Suyash Lohia, Nguyen Khoi Phan, Nikunj Taneja, Naman Agarwal and Mihir Gupta

AI交易员团队发布 -Suyash Lohia，Nguyen Khoi Phan，Nikonj Taneja，Naman Agarwal和Mihir Gupta

介绍 (Introduction)

Most sources of energy that are of renewable nature are reliant on the environment. The production of wind energy is largely dependent on the wind speed and its direction. A simple, yet integral concept that is necessary for the production of wind energy is the blowing of the wind. Hence, producing energy is only possible, when wind blows.

大部分具有可再生性质的能源都依赖于环境。 风能的产生在很大程度上取决于风速及其方向。 产生风能所必需的一个简单但不可或缺的概念就是吹风。 因此，只有在风吹动时才可能产生能量。

Wind energy as a renewable source of energy is an extremely clean fuel source since it causes very minimal air pollution contrary to the power plants that are reliant on the combustion of fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas. Additionally, due its clean property, wind energy production is a rather safe process since it does not involve the emission of any hazardous gasses. However, despite the various benefits of using wind energy, it is an unfavourable source. Wind energy production’s heavy dependence on the environment causes wind energy to be of an unpredictable nature as compared to non renewable sources of energy such as fossil fuels and nuclear energy.

风能作为一种可再生能源是一种非常清洁的燃料，因为它与依赖煤和天然气等化石燃料燃烧的发电厂相反，它造成的空气污染极少。 此外，由于其清洁特性，风能生产是一个相当安全的过程，因为它不涉及任何有害气体的排放。 但是，尽管使用风能有许多好处，但它是不利的来源。 与不可再生的能源(如化石燃料和核能)相比，风能生产对环境的严重依赖导致风能具有不可预测的性质。

利益相关者分析 (Stakeholder Analysis)

Wind energy production primarily consists of three core stakeholders. They are collectively accountable for establishing the production line for wind energy. The three key stakeholders are:

风能生产主要由三个核心利益相关者组成。 他们共同负责建立风能生产线。 三个主要利益相关者是：

Energy traders: these are companies which help predict and trade many aspects of energy, including the expected production of wind energy. In this project, the role of the energy trader is to help solve the shortfall through financial instruments.

能源贸易商 ：这些公司可以帮助预测和交易能源的许多方面，包括风能的预期产量。 在该项目中，能源交易员的作用是通过金融工具帮助解决短缺问题。

Wind energy producers: These refer to the companies that manage and operate wind farms. They act as the intermediary between the grid operators and the energy traders, thereby selling the energy they produce to the Grid Operators.

风能生产商 ：这些是指管理和运营风电场的公司。 它们充当电网运营商和能源贸易商之间的中介，从而将他们生产的能源出售给电网运营商。

Grid Operators: These refer to the various companies bestowed with the responsibility to manage the power grids over a nation or region for a given country or region. They buy pre-determined blocks of energy (measured in kWh) from the wind energy producers.

电网运营商：这些是指赋予特定国家或地区管理一个国家或地区电网的各种公司。 他们从风能生产商那里购买了预定的能量块(以千瓦时为单位)。

In principle, the role of the grid operators is to create a steady supply of electrical energy for the society. In fact, in cases of power outages or shortages, the government is liable to fine grid operators. In turn, this risk further percolates down to the energy traders and wind energy producers who are held responsible for the issues arising and are further made accountable to compensate for the shortfalls and the fines charged.

原则上，电网运营商的作用是为社会创造稳定的电能供应。 实际上，在停电或短缺的情况下，政府有责任对电网经营者处以罚款。 反过来，这种风险会进一步渗透到能源贸易商和风能生产商，他们对所出现的问题负责，并进一步承担责任，以弥补不足和罚款。

Problem Statement: Having understood the relationship between the various stakeholders in the process of wind energy production and its lead up to the marketplace, it is essential to understand the problem at hand. In the aforementioned setup, the wind energy producers forecast the energy they will produce in the future to the grid. This forecast is understood as a promissory minimum that the grid would expect from the energy producers. Differences in the actual energy produced in an interval in comparison with the forecast could be of two types:

问题陈述：在了解风能生产过程中各个利益相关者之间的关系以及将风能推向市场之前，了解当前的问题至关重要。 在上述设置中，风能生产商预测未来将向电网生产的能源。 该预测被理解为电网对能源生产商的期望下限。 间隔内产生的实际能量与预测值之间的差异可能有两种：

1. Shortfall — The scenario where the actual energy produced is lesser than the forecast. When this happens, the grid receives a fine from the wind energy producer.

   短缺—实际产生的能量小于预测的情况。 发生这种情况时，电网将从风能生产商处罚款。

2. Excess — The scenario where the actual energy produced is greater than the forecast. When this happens, there is no direct fine, however, the wind energy producers do not receive any compensation for the excess energy produced.

   多余 -实际产生的能量大于预测的情况。 发生这种情况时，不会直接处以罚款，但是，风能生产者不会就产生的多余能量获得任何补偿。

Our role as the energy trader is to provide service to our client, the wind producer in 2 ways:

我们作为能源贸易商的角色是通过两种方式向我们的客户(风能生产商)提供服务：

1. Create the forecast for the wind producers to be handed to the grid.
   创建将要移交给电网的风力发电商的预测。
2. Purchase overpriced energy from the spot market and provide it to the grid in the event of a shortfall.
   从现货市场购买价格过高的能源，并在出现短缺时将其提供给电网。

Objective

目的

In the capacity of energy traders, we were required to get hourly T+18 hour energy forecasts for energy production which would then be passed on the energy producers. In light of this, the main objective of the task was to maximise profits While doing so,

以能源贸易商的身份，我们被要求获得每小时T + 18小时的能源生产能源预测，然后将其传递给能源生产商。 有鉴于此，任务的主要目标是实现利润最大化。

Our objective in this project is to play the role of an energy trader. To simplify the problem, the trading algorithm (described below) is fixed and cannot be altered. Your goal is to get a T+18 hour energy forecast, every hour. The objective is to maximise profits for your client using your energy production forecast and the given trading algorithm.

我们在该项目中的目标是扮演能源贸易商的角色。 为了简化问题，交易算法(如下所述)是固定的，不能更改。 您的目标是每小时获得T + 18小时的能源预测。 目的是使用您的能源产量预测和给定的交易算法为您的客户最大化利润。

交易设置的更深层次的复杂性： (Deeper Intricacies of the Trading Setup:)

In line with the aforementioned objective, we were required to make a T+18 hour hour forecast of the energy for our client’s wind farms. As per the simulated set-up, our client was to be paid 10 euro cents/kWh sold to the grid. However, the sale of the energy units were subject to certain conditions. We would only sell to the grid operators, what we in the capacity of energy traders forecasted for that particular day and if our forecast was below the actual energy production, then we were liable to buy the deficit from the spot market at the rate of 20 euro cents/kWh. On the other hand, if the actual energy production exceeded the forecast then the excess would be observed by the grid, without the grid operator (i.e. our client) being compensated for the excess.

根据上述目标，我们被要求对客户风电场的能源进行T + 18小时的预测。 根据模拟设置，向客户出售给电网的价格为10欧分/ kWh。 但是，出售能源单位要遵守某些条件。 我们只会向电网运营商出售该天在能源交易员的预测中所能达到的水平，如果我们的预测低于实际的能源产量，则我们有责任以20的比率从现货市场购买赤字。欧分/ kWh。 另一方面，如果实际的能源产量超过了预测，那么电网将观察到过量，而电网运营商(即我们的客户)将无法获得补偿。

As for the time scales involved, the first 18 hours (also termed as the warmup period) were deemed void — such that no trades were to be performed during this period. After the warm-up period, we were expected to produce a T+18 hour forecast for the energy production, every hour. Furthermore, this trading period was to continue over weekends and public holidays which would end at the end of the evaluation period.

至于所涉及的时间尺度，最初的18个小时(也称为预热期)被认为是无效的，因此在此期间不得进行任何交易。 在预热期之后，我们预计每小时会产生T + 18小时的能源生产预测。 此外，该交易期将持续到周末和公共假日，直到评估期结束。

As a part of the project, we will compare the actual energy produced with the forecast we prepare on an hourly basis. In the event of the forecast being equal or lesser than the actual energy produced (excess), we are paid 10 euro cents per kWh. This amount is added to our cash at hand, increasing its positive balance. If, in case our cash at hand balance turned negative, we would have to settle our debt(accumulated negative balance) before receiving the amount from the grid. As mentioned previously, excess production over the forecast is not compensated.

作为项目的一部分，我们将每小时产生的实际能量与我们准备的预测进行比较。 如果预测值等于或小于实际产生的能量(过量)，我们将为每度电支付10欧分。 这笔款项将添加到我们的手头现金中，从而增加其正余额。 如果在手头现金余额变为负数的情况下，我们必须先偿还债务(累计负余额)，然后才能从电网接收金额。 如前所述，超出预测的过剩产量将不予补偿。

Contrarily, if there happens to be a shortfall we will have to ensure supplying the promised forecast to the grid by purchasing the shortfall at an overpriced rate from the spot market. Naturally, our cash at hand balance has to be positive for us to make purchases from the spot market. However, if this is not the case, we will be fined 100 euro cents per kWh for the amount of shortfall, which further gets added to our cumulative debt.

相反，如果碰巧出现短缺，我们将必须通过从现货市场以过高的价格购买短缺来确保将承诺的预测提供给电网。 当然，我们的手头现金余额对我们来说必须是正数，以便我们从现货市场购买商品。 但是，如果不是这种情况，我们将对不足额度每千瓦时罚款100欧分，这进一步加重了我们的累积债务。

We were given a sum of 10,000,000 Euro-cents as part of our ‘cash at hand’ at the start and were required to return this amount at the end of the evaluation period, alongside the remainder which were to be our client’s profits.

我们一开始就获得了10,000,000欧分作为“手头现金”的一部分，并被要求在评估期结束时返还这笔款项，其余部分将作为客户的利润。

数据集： (Datasets:)

In this project we have used two main datasets:

在这个项目中，我们使用了两个主要的数据集：

1. Wind Energy Production: The source that we have used to obtain data on wind energy production is the French energy transmission authority, Réseau de transport d’électricité (RTE). We have used near real time data, standardised and averaged to 1 hour. The data used is for the period of Jan 2017 — present, with the data represented in kWh. As the dataset comprises wind production data for the Ile-de-France near Paris, it has been named energy-ile-de-france.

   风能生产：我们用于获取风能生产数据的来源是法国能源传输机构Réseaude transport d'électricité(RTE)。 我们使用了近实时数据，经过标准化，平均时间为1小时。 所使用的数据为2017年1月至今的数据，以kWh表示。 由于数据集包含巴黎附近法兰西岛的风力生产数据，因此已被命名为ile-france。

2. Wind Forecasts: In addition to the Wind energy production data, we were provided with wind forecasts in 8 locations in the Ile-de-France region, with each location representing a key wind farm. Similar to the production data, the forecast data is from January 2017 to the p