第R3周:天气预测

任务说明:该数据集提供了来自澳大利亚许多地点的大约 10 年的每日天气观测数据。你需要做的是根据这些数据对RainTomorrow进行一个预测,这次任务任务与以往的不同,我增加了探索式数据分析(EDA),希望这部分内容可以帮助到大家。

一.导入数据

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import seaborn as sns
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import warnings
warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')

from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler
import tensorflow as tf
from tensorflow.keras.models import Sequential
from tensorflow.keras.layers import Dense, Activation,Dropout
from tensorflow.keras.callbacks import EarlyStopping
from sklearn.metrics import classification_report,confusion_matrix
from sklearn.metrics import r2_score
from sklearn.metrics import mean_absolute_error , mean_absolute_percentage_error , mean_squared_error
data = pd.read_csv("weatherAUS.csv")
df   = data.copy()
data.head()
DateLocationMinTempMaxTempRainfallEvaporationSunshineWindGustDirWindGustSpeedWindDir9am...Humidity9amHumidity3pmPressure9amPressure3pmCloud9amCloud3pmTemp9amTemp3pmRainTodayRainTomorrow
02008-12-01Albury13.422.90.6NaNNaNW44.0W...71.022.01007.71007.18.0NaN16.921.8NoNo
12008-12-02Albury7.425.10.0NaNNaNWNW44.0NNW...44.025.01010.61007.8NaNNaN17.224.3NoNo
22008-12-03Albury12.925.70.0NaNNaNWSW46.0W...38.030.01007.61008.7NaN2.021.023.2NoNo
32008-12-04Albury9.228.00.0NaNNaNNE24.0SE...45.016.01017.61012.8NaNNaN18.126.5NoNo
42008-12-05Albury17.532.31.0NaNNaNW41.0ENE...82.033.01010.81006.07.08.017.829.7NoNo

5 rows × 23 columns

data.describe()
MinTempMaxTempRainfallEvaporationSunshineWindGustSpeedWindSpeed9amWindSpeed3pmHumidity9amHumidity3pmPressure9amPressure3pmCloud9amCloud3pmTemp9amTemp3pm
count143975.000000144199.000000142199.00000082670.00000075625.000000135197.000000143693.000000142398.000000142806.000000140953.000000130395.00000130432.00000089572.00000086102.000000143693.000000141851.00000
mean12.19403423.2213482.3609185.4682327.61117840.03523014.04342618.66265768.88083151.5391161017.649941015.2558894.4474614.50993016.99063121.68339
std6.3984957.1190498.4780604.1937043.78548313.6070628.9153758.80980019.02916420.7959027.106537.0374142.8871592.7203576.4887536.93665
min-8.500000-4.8000000.0000000.0000000.0000006.0000000.0000000.0000000.0000000.000000980.50000977.1000000.0000000.000000-7.200000-5.40000
25%7.60000017.9000000.0000002.6000004.80000031.0000007.00000013.00000057.00000037.0000001012.900001010.4000001.0000002.00000012.30000016.60000
50%12.00000022.6000000.0000004.8000008.40000039.00000013.00000019.00000070.00000052.0000001017.600001015.2000005.0000005.00000016.70000021.10000
75%16.90000028.2000000.8000007.40000010.60000048.00000019.00000024.00000083.00000066.0000001022.400001020.0000007.0000007.00000021.60000026.40000
max33.90000048.100000371.000000145.00000014.500000135.000000130.00000087.000000100.000000100.0000001041.000001039.6000009.0000009.00000040.20000046.70000
data.dtypes
Date              object
Location          object
MinTemp          float64
MaxTemp          float64
Rainfall         float64
Evaporation      float64
Sunshine         float64
WindGustDir       object
WindGustSpeed    float64
WindDir9am        object
WindDir3pm        object
WindSpeed9am     float64
WindSpeed3pm     float64
Humidity9am      float64
Humidity3pm      float64
Pressure9am      float64
Pressure3pm      float64
Cloud9am         float64
Cloud3pm         float64
Temp9am          float64
Temp3pm          float64
RainToday         object
RainTomorrow      object
dtype: object
data['Date']=pd.to_datetime(data['Date'])
data['Date']
0        2008-12-01
1        2008-12-02
2        2008-12-03
3        2008-12-04
4        2008-12-05
            ...    
145455   2017-06-21
145456   2017-06-22
145457   2017-06-23
145458   2017-06-24
145459   2017-06-25
Name: Date, Length: 145460, dtype: datetime64[ns]
data['year']=data['Date'].dt.year
data['Month']=data['Date'].dt.month
data['day']=data['Date'].dt.day
data.head()
DateLocationMinTempMaxTempRainfallEvaporationSunshineWindGustDirWindGustSpeedWindDir9am...Pressure3pmCloud9amCloud3pmTemp9amTemp3pmRainTodayRainTomorrowyearMonthday
02008-12-01Albury13.422.90.6NaNNaNW44.0W...1007.18.0NaN16.921.8NoNo2008121
12008-12-02Albury7.425.10.0NaNNaNWNW44.0NNW...1007.8NaNNaN17.224.3NoNo2008122
22008-12-03Albury12.925.70.0NaNNaNWSW46.0W...1008.7NaN2.021.023.2NoNo2008123
32008-12-04Albury9.228.00.0NaNNaNNE24.0SE...1012.8NaNNaN18.126.5NoNo2008124
42008-12-05Albury17.532.31.0NaNNaNW41.0ENE...1006.07.08.017.829.7NoNo2008125

5 rows × 26 columns

data.drop('Date',inplace=True,axis=1)
data.columns
Index(['Location', 'MinTemp', 'MaxTemp', 'Rainfall', 'Evaporation', 'Sunshine',
       'WindGustDir', 'WindGustSpeed', 'WindDir9am', 'WindDir3pm',
       'WindSpeed9am', 'WindSpeed3pm', 'Humidity9am', 'Humidity3pm',
       'Pressure9am', 'Pressure3pm', 'Cloud9am', 'Cloud3pm', 'Temp9am',
       'Temp3pm', 'RainToday', 'RainTomorrow', 'year', 'Month', 'day'],
      dtype='object')

二.探索式数据分析

1.数据相关性探索

seaborn.heatmap(data, vmin=None, vmax=None, cmap=None, center=None, robust=False, annot=None, fmt=‘.2g’,
annot_kws=None,linewidths=0, linecolor=‘white’, cbar=True, cbar_kws=None, cbar_ax=None, square=False,
xticklabels=‘auto’, yticklabels=‘auto’,mask=None, ax=None, **kwargs)

可参考:https://blog.csdn.net/weixin_46649052/article/details/115231716

square:布尔值,可选参数,如果为True,则将坐标轴方向设置为“equal”,以使每个单元格为方形。

annot: 布尔值或者矩形数据,可选参数,如果为True,则在每个热力图单元格中写入数据值。 如果数组的形状与data相同,则使用它来代替原始数据注释热力图

fmt:字符串,可选参数,添加注释时要使用的字符串格式代码。

plt.figure(figsize=(15,13))
# data.corr()表示了data中的两个变量之间的相关性
ax = sns.heatmap(data.corr(), square=True, annot=True, fmt='.2f')
ax.set_xticklabels(ax.get_xticklabels(), rotation=90)          
plt.show()

在这里插入图片描述

2.是否会下雨

sns.set(style="darkgrid")
plt.figure(figsize=(4,3))
sns.countplot(x='RainTomorrow',data=data)
<AxesSubplot:xlabel='RainTomorrow', ylabel='count'>

在这里插入图片描述

plt.figure(figsize=(4,3))
sns.countplot(x='RainToday',data=data)
<AxesSubplot:xlabel='RainToday', ylabel='count'>

在这里插入图片描述

x=pd.crosstab(data['RainTomorrow'],data['RainToday'])
x
RainTodayNoYes
RainTomorrow
No9272816858
Yes1660414597
y=x/x.transpose().sum().values.reshape(2,1)*100
y
RainTodayNoYes
RainTomorrow
No84.61664815.383352
Yes53.21624346.783757

● 如果今天不下雨,那么明天下雨的机会 = 15%

● 如果今天下雨明天下雨的机会 = 46%

y.plot(kind="bar",figsize=(4,3),color=['#006666','#d279a6']);

在这里插入图片描述

3.地理位置和下雨的关系

x=pd.crosstab(data['Location'],data['RainToday']) 
# 获取每个城市下雨天数和非下雨天数的百分比
x
RainTodayNoYes
Location
Adelaide2402689
Albany2114902
Albury2394617
AliceSprings2788244
BadgerysCreek2345583
Ballarat2247781
Bendigo2472562
Brisbane2452709
Cairns2038950
Canberra2789629
Cobar2602386
CoffsHarbour2084869
Dartmoor2021921
Darwin2341852
GoldCoast2205775
Hobart2426762
Katherine1295265
Launceston2328700
Melbourne1799636
MelbourneAirport2356653
Mildura2680327
Moree2460394
MountGambier2110921
MountGinini2088819
Newcastle2224731
Nhil1327242
NorahHead2121808
NorfolkIsland2045919
Nuriootpa2411592
PearceRAAF2257505
Penrith2369595
Perth2548645
PerthAirport2442567
Portland19021094
Richmond2391560
Sale2357643
SalmonGums2483472
Sydney2471866
SydneyAirport2231774
Townsville2513520
Tuggeranong2430568
Uluru1406116
WaggaWagga2440536
Walpole1870949
Watsonia2261738
Williamtown1853700
Witchcliffe2073879
Wollongong2269713
Woomera2789202
y=x/x.sum(axis=1).values.reshape((-1, 1))*100
# 按每个城市的雨天百分比排序
y=y.sort_values(by='Yes',ascending=True )

color=['#cc6699','#006699','#006666','#862d86','#ff9966'  ]
y.Yes.plot(kind="barh",figsize=(15,20),color=color)
<AxesSubplot:ylabel='Location'>

在这里插入图片描述

位置影响下雨,对于 Portland 来说,有 36% 的时间在下雨,而对于 Woomers 来说,只有6%的时间在下雨

4.湿度和压力对下雨的影响

data.columns
Index(['Location', 'MinTemp', 'MaxTemp', 'Rainfall', 'Evaporation', 'Sunshine',
       'WindGustDir', 'WindGustSpeed', 'WindDir9am', 'WindDir3pm',
       'WindSpeed9am', 'WindSpeed3pm', 'Humidity9am', 'Humidity3pm',
       'Pressure9am', 'Pressure3pm', 'Cloud9am', 'Cloud3pm', 'Temp9am',
       'Temp3pm', 'RainToday', 'RainTomorrow', 'year', 'Month', 'day'],
      dtype='object')
plt.figure(figsize=(8,6))
sns.scatterplot(data=data,x='Pressure9am',y='Pressure3pm',hue='RainTomorrow');

在这里插入图片描述

plt.figure(figsize=(8,6))
sns.scatterplot(data=data,x='Humidity9am',y='Humidity3pm',hue='RainTomorrow');

在这里插入图片描述

低压与高湿度会增加第二天下雨的概率,尤其是下午 3 点的空气湿度。

5.气温对下雨的影响

plt.figure(figsize=(8,6))
sns.scatterplot(x='MaxTemp', y='MinTemp', data=data, hue='RainTomorrow');

在这里插入图片描述

结论:当一天的最高气温和最低气温接近时,第二天下雨的概率会增加。

三.数据预处理

1.处理缺损值

# 每列中缺失数据的百分比
data.isnull().sum()/data.shape[0]*100
Location          0.000000
MinTemp           1.020899
MaxTemp           0.866905
Rainfall          2.241853
Evaporation      43.166506
Sunshine         48.009762
WindGustDir       7.098859
WindGustSpeed     7.055548
WindDir9am        7.263853
WindDir3pm        2.906641
WindSpeed9am      1.214767
WindSpeed3pm      2.105046
Humidity9am       1.824557
Humidity3pm       3.098446
Pressure9am      10.356799
Pressure3pm      10.331363
Cloud9am         38.421559
Cloud3pm         40.807095
Temp9am           1.214767
Temp3pm           2.481094
RainToday         2.241853
RainTomorrow      2.245978
year              0.000000
Month             0.000000
day               0.000000
dtype: float64
# 在该列中随机选择数进行填充
lst=['Evaporation','Sunshine','Cloud9am','Cloud3pm']
for col in lst:
    fill_list = data[col].dropna()
    data[col] = data[col].fillna(pd.Series(np.random.choice(fill_list, size=len(data.index))))
s = (data.dtypes == "object")
object_cols = list(s[s].index)
object_cols
['Location',
 'WindGustDir',
 'WindDir9am',
 'WindDir3pm',
 'RainToday',
 'RainTomorrow']
# inplace=True:直接修改原对象,不创建副本
# data[i].mode()[0] 返回频率出现最高的选项,众数

for i in object_cols:
    data[i].fillna(data[i].mode()[0], inplace=True)
t = (data.dtypes == "float64")
num_cols = list(t[t].index)
num_cols
['MinTemp',
 'MaxTemp',
 'Rainfall',
 'Evaporation',
 'Sunshine',
 'WindGustSpeed',
 'WindSpeed9am',
 'WindSpeed3pm',
 'Humidity9am',
 'Humidity3pm',
 'Pressure9am',
 'Pressure3pm',
 'Cloud9am',
 'Cloud3pm',
 'Temp9am',
 'Temp3pm']
# .median(), 中位数
for i in num_cols:
    data[i].fillna(data[i].median(), inplace=True)
data.isnull().sum()
Location         0
MinTemp          0
MaxTemp          0
Rainfall         0
Evaporation      0
Sunshine         0
WindGustDir      0
WindGustSpeed    0
WindDir9am       0
WindDir3pm       0
WindSpeed9am     0
WindSpeed3pm     0
Humidity9am      0
Humidity3pm      0
Pressure9am      0
Pressure3pm      0
Cloud9am         0
Cloud3pm         0
Temp9am          0
Temp3pm          0
RainToday        0
RainTomorrow     0
year             0
Month            0
day              0
dtype: int64

2.构建数据集

from sklearn.preprocessing import LabelEncoder

label_encoder = LabelEncoder()
for i in object_cols:
    data[i] = label_encoder.fit_transform(data[i])
X = data.drop(['RainTomorrow','day'],axis=1).values
y = data['RainTomorrow'].values
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X,y,test_size=0.25,random_state=101)
scaler = MinMaxScaler()
scaler.fit(X_train)
X_train = scaler.transform(X_train)
X_test  = scaler.transform(X_test)

四.预测是否下雨

1.搭建神经网路

from tensorflow.keras.optimizers import Adam

model = Sequential()
model.add(Dense(units=24,activation='tanh',))
model.add(Dense(units=18,activation='tanh'))
model.add(Dense(units=23,activation='tanh'))
model.add(Dropout(0.5))
model.add(Dense(units=12,activation='tanh'))
model.add(Dropout(0.2))
model.add(Dense(units=1,activation='sigmoid'))

optimizer = tf.keras.optimizers.Adam(learning_rate=1e-4)

model.compile(loss='binary_crossentropy',
              optimizer=optimizer,
              metrics="accuracy")
early_stop = EarlyStopping(monitor='val_loss', 
                           mode='min',
                           min_delta=0.001, 
                           verbose=1, 
                           patience=25,
                           restore_best_weights=True)

2.模型训练

model.fit(x=X_train, 
          y=y_train, 
          validation_data=(X_test, y_test), verbose=1,
          callbacks=[early_stop],
          epochs = 10,
          batch_size = 32
)
Epoch 1/10
3410/3410 [==============================] - 8s 2ms/step - loss: 0.4570 - accuracy: 0.7996 - val_loss: 0.3916 - val_accuracy: 0.8283
Epoch 2/10
3410/3410 [==============================] - 8s 2ms/step - loss: 0.3962 - accuracy: 0.8304 - val_loss: 0.3774 - val_accuracy: 0.8356
Epoch 3/10
3410/3410 [==============================] - 8s 2ms/step - loss: 0.3887 - accuracy: 0.8351 - val_loss: 0.3776 - val_accuracy: 0.8379
Epoch 4/10
3410/3410 [==============================] - 8s 2ms/step - loss: 0.3840 - accuracy: 0.8372 - val_loss: 0.3724 - val_accuracy: 0.8389
Epoch 5/10
3410/3410 [==============================] - 8s 2ms/step - loss: 0.3814 - accuracy: 0.8382 - val_loss: 0.3734 - val_accuracy: 0.8394
Epoch 6/10
3410/3410 [==============================] - 8s 2ms/step - loss: 0.3794 - accuracy: 0.8391 - val_loss: 0.3697 - val_accuracy: 0.8399
Epoch 7/10
3410/3410 [==============================] - 8s 2ms/step - loss: 0.3791 - accuracy: 0.8393 - val_loss: 0.3692 - val_accuracy: 0.8408
Epoch 8/10
3410/3410 [==============================] - 8s 2ms/step - loss: 0.3774 - accuracy: 0.8395 - val_loss: 0.3686 - val_accuracy: 0.8411
Epoch 9/10
3410/3410 [==============================] - 8s 2ms/step - loss: 0.3771 - accuracy: 0.8398 - val_loss: 0.3680 - val_accuracy: 0.8410
Epoch 10/10
3410/3410 [==============================] - 8s 2ms/step - loss: 0.3767 - accuracy: 0.8395 - val_loss: 0.3677 - val_accuracy: 0.8411





<tensorflow.python.keras.callbacks.History at 0x1cf2a1c6d48>

3.结果可视化

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

acc = model.history.history['accuracy']
val_acc = model.history.history['val_accuracy']

loss = model.history.history['loss']
val_loss = model.history.history['val_loss']

epochs_range = range(10)

plt.figure(figsize=(14, 4))
plt.subplot(1, 2, 1)

plt.plot(epochs_range, acc, label='Training Accuracy')
plt.plot(epochs_range, val_acc, label='Validation Accuracy')
plt.legend(loc='lower right')
plt.title('Training and Validation Accuracy')

plt.subplot(1, 2, 2)
plt.plot(epochs_range, loss, label='Training Loss')
plt.plot(epochs_range, val_loss, label='Validation Loss')
plt.legend(loc='upper right')
plt.title('Training and Validation Loss')
plt.show()

在这里插入图片描述


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