import numpy as np``import pandas as pd``import os, datetime``import tensorflow as tf``from tensorflow.keras.models import *``from tensorflow.keras.layers import *``print('Tensorflow version: {}'.format(tf.__version__))`` ``import matplotlib.pyplot as plt``plt.style.use('seaborn')`` ``import warnings``warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')`` ``physical_devices = tf.config.list_physical_devices()``print('Physical devices: {}'.format(physical_devices))`` ``# Filter out the CPUs and keep only the GPUs``gpus = [device for device in physical_devices if 'GPU' in device.device_type]`` ``# If GPUs are available, set memory growth to True``if len(gpus) > 0:` `tf.config.experimental.set_visible_devices(gpus[0], 'GPU')` `tf.config.experimental.set_memory_growth(gpus[0], True)` `print('GPU memory growth: True')
Tensorflow version: 2.9.1
Physical devices: [PhysicalDevice(name=‘/physical_device:CPU:0’, device_type=‘CPU’)]
Hyperparameters
batch_size = 32``seq_len = 128`` ``d_k = 256``d_v = 256``n_heads = 12``ff_dim = 256
Load IBM data
IBM_path = 'IBM.csv'`` ``df = pd.read_csv(IBM_path, delimiter=',', usecols=['Date', 'Open', 'High', 'Low', 'Close', 'Volume'])`` ``# Replace 0 to avoid dividing by 0 later on``df['Volume'].replace(to_replace=0, method='ffill', inplace=True)` `df.sort_values('Date', inplace=True)``df.tail()
df.head()
# print the shape of the dataset``print('Shape of the dataframe: {}'.format(df.shape))
Shape of the dataframe: (14588, 6)
Plot daily IBM closing prices and volume
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(15,10))``st = fig.suptitle("IBM Close Price and Volume", fontsize=20)``st.set_y(0.92)`` ``ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211)``ax1.plot(df['Close'], label='IBM Close Price')``ax1.set_xticks(range(0, df.shape[0], 1464))``ax1.set_xticklabels(df['Date'].loc[::1464])``ax1.set_ylabel('Close Price', fontsize=18)``ax1.legend(loc="upper left", fontsize=12)`` ``ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)``ax2.plot(df['Volume'], label='IBM Volume')``ax2.set_xticks(range(0, df.shape[0], 1464))``ax2.set_xticklabels(df['Date'].loc[::1464])``ax2.set_ylabel('Volume', fontsize=18)``ax2.legend(loc="upper left", fontsize=12)
Calculate normalized percentage change of all columns
'''Calculate percentage change'''`` ``df['Open'] = df['Open'].pct_change() # Create arithmetic returns column``df['High'] = df['High'].pct_change() # Create arithmetic returns column``df['Low'] = df['Low'].pct_change() # Create arithmetic returns column``df['Close'] = df['Close'].pct_change() # Create arithmetic returns column``df['Volume'] = df['Volume'].pct_change()`` ``df.dropna(how='any', axis=0, inplace=True) # Drop all rows with NaN values`` ``###############################################################################``'''Create indexes to split dataset'''`` ``times = sorted(df.index.values)``last_10pct = sorted(df.index.values)[-int(0.1*len(times))] # Last 10% of series``last_20pct = sorted(df.index.values)[-int(0.2*len(times))] # Last 20% of series`` ``###############################################################################``'''Normalize price columns'''``#``min_return = min(df[(df.index < last_20pct)][['Open', 'High', 'Low', 'Close']].min(axis=0))``max_return = max(df[(df.index < last_20pct)][['Open', 'High', 'Low', 'Close']].max(axis=0))`` ``# Min-max normalize price columns (0-1 range)``df['Open'] = (df['Open'] - min_return) / (max_return - min_return)``df['High'] = (df['High'] - min_return) / (max_return - min_return)``df['Low'] = (df['Low'] - min_return) / (max_return - min_return)``df['Close'] = (df['Close'] - min_return) / (max_return - min_return)`` ``###############################################################################``'''Normalize volume column'''`` ``min_volume = df[(df.index < last_20pct)]['Volume'].min(axis=0)``max_volume = df[(df.index < last_20pct)]['Volume'].max(axis=0)`` ``# Min-max normalize volume columns (0-1 range)``df['Volume'] = (df['Volume'] - min_volume) / (max_volume - min_volume)`` ``###############################################################################``'''Create training, validation and test split'''`` ``df_train = df[(df.index < last_20pct)] # Training data are 80% of total data``df_val = df[(df.index >= last_20pct) & (df.index < last_10pct)]``df_test = df[(df.index >= last_10pct)]`` ``# Remove date column``df_train.drop(columns=['Date'], inplace=True)``df_val.drop(columns=['Date'], inplace=True)``df_test.drop(columns=['Date'], inplace=True)`` ``# Convert pandas columns into arrays``train_data = df_train.values``val_data = df_val.values``test_data = df_test.values``print('Training data shape: {}'.format(train_data.shape))``print('Validation data shape: {}'.format(val_data.shape))``print('Test data shape: {}'.format(test_data.shape))`` ``df_train.head()
Training data shape: (11678, 5)
Validation data shape: (1460, 5)
Test data shape: (1459, 5)
Plot daily changes of close prices and volume
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(15,12))``st = fig.suptitle("Data Separation", fontsize=20)``st.set_y(0.95)`` ``###############################################################################`` ``ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211)``ax1.plot(np.arange(train_data.shape[0]), df_train['Close'], label='Training data')`` ``ax1.plot(np.arange(train_data.shape[0], `` train_data.shape[0]+val_data.shape[0]), df_val['Close'], label='Validation data')`` ``ax1.plot(np.arange(train_data.shape[0]+val_data.shape[0], `` train_data.shape[0]+val_data.shape[0]+test_data.shape[0]), df_test['Close'], label='Test data')``ax1.set_xlabel('Date')``ax1.set_ylabel('Normalized Closing Returns')``ax1.set_title("Close Price", fontsize=18)``ax1.legend(loc="best", fontsize=12)`` ``###############################################################################`` ``ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)``ax2.plot(np.arange(train_data.shape[0]), df_train['Volume'], label='Training data')`` ``ax2.plot(np.arange(train_data.shape[0], `` train_data.shape[0]+val_data.shape[0]), df_val['Volume'], label='Validation data')`` ``ax2.plot(np.arange(train_data.shape[0]+val_data.shape[0], `` train_data.shape[0]+val_data.shape[0]+test_data.shape[0]), df_test['Volume'], label='Test data')``ax2.set_xlabel('Date')``ax2.set_ylabel('Normalized Volume Changes')``ax2.set_title("Volume", fontsize=18)``ax2.legend(loc="best", fontsize=12)
Create chunks of training, validation and test data
# Training data``X_train, y_train = [], []``for i in range(seq_len, len(train_data)):` `X_train.append(train_data[i-seq_len:i]) # Chunks of training data with a length of 128 df-rows` `y_train.append(train_data[:, 3][i]) #Value of 4th column (Close Price) of df-row 128+1``X_train, y_train = np.array(X_train), np.array(y_train)`` ``###############################################################################`` ``# Validation data``X_val, y_val = [], []``for i in range(seq_len, len(val_data)):` `X_val.append(val_data[i-seq_len:i])` `y_val.append(val_data[:, 3][i])``X_val, y_val = np.array(X_val), np.array(y_val)`` ``###############################################################################`` ``# Test data``X_test, y_test = [], []``for i in range(seq_len, len(test_data)):` `X_test.append(test_data[i-seq_len:i])` `y_test.append(test_data[:, 3][i])` `X_test, y_test = np.array(X_test), np.array(y_test)`` ``print('Training set shape', X_train.shape, y_train.shape)``print('Validation set shape', X_val.shape, y_val.shape)``print('Testing set shape' ,X_test.shape, y_test.shape)
Training set shape (11550, 128, 5) (11550,)
Validation set shape (1332, 128, 5) (1332,)
Testing set shape (1331, 128, 5) (1331,)
TimeVector
class Time2Vector(Layer):` `def __init__(self, seq_len, **kwargs):` `super(Time2Vector, self).__init__()` `self.seq_len = seq_len`` ` `def build(self, input_shape):` `'''Initialize weights and biases with shape (batch, seq_len)'''` `self.weights_linear = self.add_weight(name='weight_linear',` `shape=(int(self.seq_len),),` `initializer='uniform',` `trainable=True)` ` self.bias_linear = self.add_weight(name='bias_linear',` `shape=(int(self.seq_len),),` `initializer='uniform',` `trainable=True)` ` self.weights_periodic = self.add_weight(name='weight_periodic',` `shape=(int(self.seq_len),),` `initializer='uniform',` `trainable=True)`` ` `self.bias_periodic = self.add_weight(name='bias_periodic',` `shape=(int(self.seq_len),),` `initializer='uniform',` `trainable=True)`` ` `def call(self, x):` `'''Calculate linear and periodic time features'''` `x = tf.math.reduce_mean(x[:,:,:4], axis=-1)`` time_linear = self.weights_linear * x + self.bias_linear # Linear time feature` `time_linear = tf.expand_dims(time_linear, axis=-1) # Add dimension (batch, seq_len, 1)` ` time_periodic = tf.math.sin(tf.multiply(x, self.weights_periodic) + self.bias_periodic)` `time_periodic = tf.expand_dims(time_periodic, axis=-1) # Add dimension (batch, seq_len, 1)` `return tf.concat([time_linear, time_periodic], axis=-1) # shape = (batch, seq_len, 2)` ` def get_config(self): # Needed for saving and loading model with custom layer` `config = super().get_config().copy()` `config.update({'seq_len': self.seq_len})` `return config
Transformer
class SingleAttention(Layer):` `def __init__(self, d_k, d_v):` `super(SingleAttention, self).__init__()` `self.d_k = d_k` `self.d_v = d_v`` ` `def build(self, input_shape):` `self.query = Dense(self.d_k,`` input_shape=input_shape, `` kernel_initializer='glorot_uniform', `` bias_initializer='glorot_uniform')` ` self.key = Dense(self.d_k, `` input_shape=input_shape, `` kernel_initializer='glorot_uniform', `` bias_initializer='glorot_uniform')` ` self.value = Dense(self.d_v, `` input_shape=input_shape, `` kernel_initializer='glorot_uniform', `` bias_initializer='glorot_uniform')`` ` `def call(self, inputs): # inputs = (in_seq, in_seq, in_seq)` `q = self.query(inputs[0])` `k = self.key(inputs[1])`` ` `attn_weights = tf.matmul(q, k, transpose_b=True)` `attn_weights = tf.map_fn(lambda x: x/np.sqrt(self.d_k), attn_weights)` `attn_weights = tf.nn.softmax(attn_weights, axis=-1)` ` v = self.value(inputs[2])` `attn_out = tf.matmul(attn_weights, v)` `return attn_out` ` ``#############################################################################`` ``class MultiAttention(Layer):` `def __init__(self, d_k, d_v, n_heads):` `super(MultiAttention, self).__init__()` `self.d_k = d_k` `self.d_v = d_v` `self.n_heads = n_heads` `self.attn_heads = list()`` ` `def build(self, input_shape):` `for n in range(self.n_heads):` `self.attn_heads.append(SingleAttention(self.d_k, self.d_v))`` # input_shape[0]=(batch, seq_len, 7), input_shape[0][-1]=7 `` self.linear = Dense(input_shape[0][-1], `` input_shape=input_shape, `` kernel_initializer='glorot_uniform', `` bias_initializer='glorot_uniform')`` ` `def call(self, inputs):` `attn = [self.attn_heads[i](inputs) for i in range(self.n_heads)]` `concat_attn = tf.concat(attn, axis=-1)` `multi_linear = self.linear(concat_attn)` `return multi_linear` ` ``#############################################################################`` ``class TransformerEncoder(Layer):` `def __init__(self, d_k, d_v, n_heads, ff_dim, dropout=0.1, **kwargs):` `super(TransformerEncoder, self).__init__()` `self.d_k = d_k` `self.d_v = d_v` `self.n_heads = n_heads` `self.ff_dim = ff_dim` `self.attn_heads = list()` `self.dropout_rate = dropout`` ` `def build(self, input_shape):` `self.attn_multi = MultiAttention(self.d_k, self.d_v, self.n_heads)` `self.attn_dropout = Dropout(self.dropout_rate)` `self.attn_normalize = LayerNormalization(input_shape=input_shape, epsilon=1e-6)`` ` `self.ff_conv1D_1 = Conv1D(filters=self.ff_dim, kernel_size=1, activation='relu')` `# input_shape[0]=(batch, seq_len, 7), input_shape[0][-1] = 7`` self.ff_conv1D_2 = Conv1D(filters=input_shape[0][-1], kernel_size=1) `` self.ff_dropout = Dropout(self.dropout_rate)` `self.ff_normalize = LayerNormalization(input_shape=input_shape, epsilon=1e-6)`` def call(self, inputs): # inputs = (in_seq, in_seq, in_seq)` `attn_layer = self.attn_multi(inputs)` `attn_layer = self.attn_dropout(attn_layer)` `attn_layer = self.attn_normalize(inputs[0] + attn_layer)`` ` `ff_layer = self.ff_conv1D_1(attn_layer)` `ff_layer = self.ff_conv1D_2(ff_layer)` `ff_layer = self.ff_dropout(ff_layer)` `ff_layer = self.ff_normalize(inputs[0] + ff_layer)` `return ff_layer` ` ` `def get_config(self): # Needed for saving and loading model with custom layer` `config = super().get_config().copy()` `config.update({'d_k': self.d_k,` `'d_v': self.d_v,` `'n_heads': self.n_heads,` `'ff_dim': self.ff_dim,` `'attn_heads': self.attn_heads,` `'dropout_rate': self.dropout_rate})` `return config
Model
def create_model():` `'''Initialize time and transformer layers'''` `time_embedding = Time2Vector(seq_len)` `attn_layer1 = TransformerEncoder(d_k, d_v, n_heads, ff_dim)` `attn_layer2 = TransformerEncoder(d_k, d_v, n_heads, ff_dim)` `attn_layer3 = TransformerEncoder(d_k, d_v, n_heads, ff_dim)`` ` `'''Construct model'''` `in_seq = Input(shape=(seq_len, 5))` `x = time_embedding(in_seq)` `x = Concatenate(axis=-1)([in_seq, x])` `x = attn_layer1((x, x, x))` `x = attn_layer2((x, x, x))` `x = attn_layer3((x, x, x))` `x = GlobalAveragePooling1D(data_format='channels_first')(x)` `x = Dropout(0.1)(x)` `x = Dense(64, activation='relu')(x)` `x = Dropout(0.1)(x)` `out = Dense(1, activation='linear')(x)`` ` `model = Model(inputs=in_seq, outputs=out)` `model.compile(loss='mse', optimizer='adam', metrics=['mae', 'mape'])` `return model`` `` ``model = create_model()``model.summary()`` ``callback = tf.keras.callbacks.ModelCheckpoint('Transformer+TimeEmbedding.hdf5', `` monitor='val_loss', `` save_best_only=True, verbose=1)`` ``history = model.fit(X_train, y_train, `` batch_size=batch_size, `` epochs=35, `` callbacks=[callback],` `validation_data=(X_val, y_val))` ` ``model = tf.keras.models.load_model('Transformer+TimeEmbedding.hdf5',` `custom_objects={'Time2Vector': Time2Vector,`` 'SingleAttention': SingleAttention,` `'MultiAttention': MultiAttention,` `'TransformerEncoder': TransformerEncoder})`` `` ``###############################################################################``'''Calculate predictions and metrics'''`` ``#Calculate predication for training, validation and test data``train_pred = model.predict(X_train)``val_pred = model.predict(X_val)``test_pred = model.predict(X_test)`` ``#Print evaluation metrics for all datasets``train_eval = model.evaluate(X_train, y_train, verbose=0)``val_eval = model.evaluate(X_val, y_val, verbose=0)``test_eval = model.evaluate(X_test, y_test, verbose=0)``print(' ')``print('Evaluation metrics')``print('Training Data - Loss: {:.4f}, MAE: {:.4f}, MAPE: {:.4f}'.format(train_eval[0], train_eval[1], train_eval[2]))``print('Validation Data - Loss: {:.4f}, MAE: {:.4f}, MAPE: {:.4f}'.format(val_eval[0], val_eval[1], val_eval[2]))``print('Test Data - Loss: {:.4f}, MAE: {:.4f}, MAPE: {:.4f}'.format(test_eval[0], test_eval[1], test_eval[2]))`` ``###############################################################################``'''Display results'''`` ``fig = plt.figure(figsize=(15,20))``st = fig.suptitle("Transformer + TimeEmbedding Model", fontsize=22)``st.set_y(0.92)`` ``#Plot training data results``ax11 = fig.add_subplot(311)``ax11.plot(train_data[:, 3], label='IBM Closing Returns')``ax11.plot(np.arange(seq_len, train_pred.shape[0]+seq_len), train_pred, linewidth=3, label='Predicted IBM Closing Returns')``ax11.set_title("Training Data", fontsize=18)``ax11.set_xlabel('Date')``ax11.set_ylabel('IBM Closing Returns')``ax11.legend(loc="best", fontsize=12)`` ``#Plot validation data results``ax21 = fig.add_subplot(312)``ax21.plot(val_data[:, 3], label='IBM Closing Returns')``ax21.plot(np.arange(seq_len, val_pred.shape[0]+seq_len), val_pred, linewidth=3, label='Predicted IBM Closing Returns')``ax21.set_title("Validation Data", fontsize=18)``ax21.set_xlabel('Date')``ax21.set_ylabel('IBM Closing Returns')``ax21.legend(loc="best", fontsize=12)`` ``#Plot test data results``ax31 = fig.add_subplot(313)``ax31.plot(test_data[:, 3], label='IBM Closing Returns')``ax31.plot(np.arange(seq_len, test_pred.shape[0]+seq_len), test_pred, linewidth=3, label='Predicted IBM Closing Returns')``ax31.set_title("Test Data", fontsize=18)``ax31.set_xlabel('Date')``ax31.set_ylabel('IBM Closing Returns')``ax31.legend(loc="best", fontsize=12)
###############################################################################``'''Calculate predictions and metrics'''`` ``#Calculate predication for training, validation and test data``train_pred = model.predict(X_train)``val_pred = model.predict(X_val)``test_pred = model.predict(X_test)`` ``#Print evaluation metrics for all datasets``train_eval = model.evaluate(X_train, y_train, verbose=0)``val_eval = model.evaluate(X_val, y_val, verbose=0)``test_eval = model.evaluate(X_test, y_test, verbose=0)``print(' ')``print('Evaluation metrics')``print('Training Data - Loss: {:.4f}, MAE: {:.4f}, MAPE: {:.4f}'.format(train_eval[0], train_eval[1], train_eval[2]))``print('Validation Data - Loss: {:.4f}, MAE: {:.4f}, MAPE: {:.4f}'.format(val_eval[0], val_eval[1], val_eval[2]))``print('Test Data - Loss: {:.4f}, MAE: {:.4f}, MAPE: {:.4f}'.format(test_eval[0], test_eval[1], test_eval[2]))`` ``###############################################################################``'''Display results'''`` ``fig = plt.figure(figsize=(15,20))``st = fig.suptitle("Transformer + TimeEmbedding Model", fontsize=22)``st.set_y(0.92)`` ``#Plot training data results``ax11 = fig.add_subplot(311)``ax11.plot(train_data[:, 3], label='IBM Closing Returns')``ax11.plot(np.arange(seq_len, train_pred.shape[0]+seq_len), train_pred, linewidth=3, label='Predicted IBM Closing Returns')``ax11.set_title("Training Data", fontsize=18)``ax11.set_xlabel('Date')``ax11.set_ylabel('IBM Closing Returns')``ax11.legend(loc="best", fontsize=12)`` ``#Plot validation data results``ax21 = fig.add_subplot(312)``ax21.plot(val_data[:, 3], label='IBM Closing Returns')``ax21.plot(np.arange(seq_len, val_pred.shape[0]+seq_len), val_pred, linewidth=3, label='Predicted IBM Closing Returns')``ax21.set_title("Validation Data", fontsize=18)``ax21.set_xlabel('Date')``ax21.set_ylabel('IBM Closing Returns')``ax21.legend(loc="best", fontsize=12)`` ``#Plot test data results``ax31 = fig.add_subplot(313)``ax31.plot(test_data[:, 3], label='IBM Closing Returns')``ax31.plot(np.arange(seq_len, test_pred.shape[0]+seq_len), test_pred, linewidth=3, label='Predicted IBM Closing Returns')``ax31.set_title("Test Data", fontsize=18)``ax31.set_xlabel('Date')``ax31.set_ylabel('IBM Closing Returns')``ax31.legend(loc="best", fontsize=12)
Model metrics
'''Display model metrics'''`` ``fig = plt.figure(figsize=(15,20))``st = fig.suptitle("Transformer + TimeEmbedding Model Metrics", fontsize=22)``st.set_y(0.92)`` ``#Plot model loss``ax1 = fig.add_subplot(311)``ax1.plot(history.history['loss'], label='Training loss (MSE)')``ax1.plot(history.history['val_loss'], label='Validation loss (MSE)')``ax1.set_title("Model loss", fontsize=18)``ax1.set_xlabel('Epoch')``ax1.set_ylabel('Loss (MSE)')``ax1.legend(loc="best", fontsize=12)`` ``#Plot MAE``ax2 = fig.add_subplot(312)``ax2.plot(history.history['mae'], label='Training MAE')``ax2.plot(history.history['val_mae'], label='Validation MAE')``ax2.set_title("Model metric - Mean average error (MAE)", fontsize=18)``ax2.set_xlabel('Epoch')``ax2.set_ylabel('Mean average error (MAE)')``ax2.legend(loc="best", fontsize=12)`` ``#Plot MAPE``ax3 = fig.add_subplot(313)``ax3.plot(history.history['mape'], label='Training MAPE')``ax3.plot(history.history['val_mape'], label='Validation MAPE')``ax3.set_title("Model metric - Mean average percentage error (MAPE)", fontsize=18)``ax3.set_xlabel('Epoch')``ax3.set_ylabel('Mean average percentage error (MAPE)')``ax3.legend(loc="best", fontsize=12)
Model architecture overview
tf.keras.utils.plot_model(` `model,` `to_file="IBM_Transformer+TimeEmbedding.png",` `show_shapes=True,` `show_layer_names=True,` `expand_nested=True,` `dpi=96,)
tf.keras.utils.plot_model(` `model,` `to_file="IBM_Transformer+TimeEmbedding.png",` `show_shapes=True,` `show_layer_names=True,` `expand_nested=True,` `dpi=96,)
Moving Average
Moving Average - Load IBM data again, to apply rolling window
IBM_path = 'IBM.csv'`` ``df = pd.read_csv(IBM_path, delimiter=',', usecols=['Date', 'Open', 'High', 'Low', 'Close', 'Volume'])`` ``# Replace 0 to avoid dividing by 0 later on``df['Volume'].replace(to_replace=0, method='ffill', inplace=True)` `df.sort_values('Date', inplace=True)`` ``# Apply moving average with a window of 10 days to all columns``df[['Open', 'High', 'Low', 'Close', 'Volume']] = df[['Open', 'High', 'Low', 'Close', 'Volume']].rolling(10).mean()` ` ``# Drop all rows with NaN values``df.dropna(how='any', axis=0, inplace=True)` `df.head()
Moving Average - Plot daily IBM closing prices and volume
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(15,10))``st = fig.suptitle("IBM Close Price and Volume", fontsize=20)``st.set_y(0.92)`` ``ax1 = fig.add_subplot(211)``ax1.plot(df['Close'], label='IBM Close Price')``ax1.set_xticks(range(0, df.shape[0], 1464))``ax1.set_xticklabels(df['Date'].loc[::1464])``ax1.set_ylabel('Close Price', fontsize=18)``ax1.legend(loc="upper left", fontsize=12)`` ``ax2 = fig.add_subplot(212)``ax2.plot(df['Volume'], label='IBM Volume')``ax2.set_xticks(range(0, df.shape[0], 1464))``ax2.set_xticklabels(df['Date'].loc[::1464])``ax2.set_ylabel('Volume', fontsize=18)``ax2.legend(loc="upper left", fontsize=12)
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