【BQ Story】 Sales Forecasting model

在担任零售公司销售分析师时,作者面临改进新产线销售预测准确性的任务,由于历史数据格式混乱,SKU命名规则不统一,导致预测困难。通过与销售团队合作收集信息,标准化SKU命名,清理和转换数据,最终提高了预测准确性,优化了库存管理,增加了销售额。
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Can you describe a situation where you had to overcome a significant challenge in your academic or professional life?

[Situation&Task] In my role as a sales analyst at a retail company, I encountered a significant challenge when tasked with improving the accuracy of sales forecasts for a new product line. The challenge stemmed from the messy format of the historical data, due to the unstandardized naming rules of SKUs and the inconsistant update between pos database and inventory system.

[Action] To overcome this probelm, my first move was to collaborated closely with the sales team to gather as much useful information as possible, so that I can adpot a feasible strategy to clean and transform data . Besides, I collaborate with product and inventory team to standardize names of SKUs to ensure each SKUs has a unique product id and product name. These actions could help in data cleaned and transformed in a better format, while also allow me to apply multiple modeling techniques and make prediction in a more accurate and comfort way.

[Result] Our dedication and efficient approach has led to a more accurate forecast, which eventually helped the company optimize inventory levels and increase sales revenue.

This experience taught me the importance of adaptability/considerable thinking, teamwork, and continuous learning to overcome challenges in a dynamic business environment

Other Fitted Question:
Tell me about a project where you had to collaborate with others to achieve a common goal. How did you contribute to the team’s success?
Describe a situation where you had to gather and analyze complex data to inform decision-making. How did you ensure the accuracy and reliability of your analysis?
Can you give an example of a time when you had to adapt to unexpected changes or setbacks? How did you overcome them?
Talk about a project where you had to utilize advanced statistical modeling techniques. How did you determine which techniques to use, and what was the outcome?
Describe a situation where you had to communicate complex technical information to non-technical stakeholders. How did you ensure they understood the insights and implications?
Have you ever led a project to optimize processes or systems? How did you approach it, and what were the results?
Tell me about a time when you had to continuously learn and adapt to new technologies or methodologies in your role. How did you stay updated, and what was the impact on your work?

Extented questions:
1.2 Can you provide specific examples of the challenges you encountered while processing data? How did you address these challenges?

[Situation&Task] Certainly. The significant challenge I faced during the data processing stage was to seek out an effective method to ensure consistency of data. The increasing number of product categories and the unstandardized naming rules for SKUs has made the data inaccurate and unreliable, and therefore made it difficult to extract and transform for modelling purpose.

[Action] To address this challenge, I i

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1 目标检测的定义 目标检测(Object Detection)的任务是找出图像中所有感兴趣的目标(物体),确定它们的类别和位置,是计算机视觉领域的核心问题之一。由于各类物体有不同的外观、形状和姿态,加上成像时光照、遮挡等因素的干扰,目标检测一直是计算机视觉领域最具有挑战性的问题。 目标检测任务可分为两个关键的子任务,目标定位和目标分类。首先检测图像中目标的位置(目标定位),然后给出每个目标的具体类别(目标分类)。输出结果是一个边界框(称为Bounding-box,一般形式为(x1,y1,x2,y2),表示框的左上角坐标和右下角坐标),一个置信度分数(Confidence Score),表示边界框中是否包含检测对象的概率和各个类别的概率(首先得到类别概率,经过Softmax可得到类别标签)。 1.1 Two stage方法 目前主流的基于深度学习的目标检测算法主要分为两类:Two stage和One stage。Two stage方法将目标检测过程分为两个阶段。第一个阶段是 Region Proposal 生成阶段,主要用于生成潜在的目标候选框(Bounding-box proposals)。这个阶段通常使用卷积神经网络(CNN)从输入图像中提取特征,然后通过一些技巧(如选择性搜索)来生成候选框。第二个阶段是分类和位置精修阶段,将第一个阶段生成的候选框输入到另一个 CNN 中进行分类,并根据分类结果对候选框的位置进行微调。Two stage 方法的优点是准确度较高,缺点是速度相对较慢。 常见Tow stage目标检测算法有:R-CNN系列、SPPNet等。 1.2 One stage方法 One stage方法直接利用模型提取特征值,并利用这些特征值进行目标的分类和定位,不需要生成Region Proposal。这种方法的优点是速度快,因为省略了Region Proposal生成的过程。One stage方法的缺点是准确度相对较低,因为它没有对潜在的目标进行预先筛选。 常见的One stage目标检测算法有:YOLO系列、SSD系列和RetinaNet等。 2 常见名词解释 2.1 NMS(Non-Maximum Suppression) 目标检测模型一般会给出目标的多个预测边界框,对成百上千的预测边界框都进行调整肯定是不可行的,需要对这些结果先进行一个大体的挑选。NMS称为非极大值抑制,作用是从众多预测边界框中挑选出最具代表性的结果,这样可以加快算法效率,其主要流程如下: 设定一个置信度分数阈值,将置信度分数小于阈值的直接过滤掉 将剩下框的置信度分数从大到小排序,选中值最大的框 遍历其余的框,如果和当前框的重叠面积(IOU)大于设定的阈值(一般为0.7),就将框删除(超过设定阈值,认为两个框的里面的物体属于同一个类别) 从未处理的框中继续选一个置信度分数最大的,重复上述过程,直至所有框处理完毕 2.2 IoU(Intersection over Union) 定义了两个边界框的重叠度,当预测边界框和真实边界框差异很小时,或重叠度很大时,表示模型产生的预测边界框很准确。边界框A、B的IOU计算公式为: 2.3 mAP(mean Average Precision) mAP即均值平均精度,是评估目标检测模型效果的最重要指标,这个值介于0到1之间,且越大越好。mAP是AP(Average Precision)的平均值,那么首先需要了解AP的概念。想要了解AP的概念,还要首先了解目标检测中Precision和Recall的概念。 首先我们设置置信度阈值(Confidence Threshold)和IoU阈值(一般设置为0.5,也会衡量0.75以及0.9的mAP值): 当一个预测边界框被认为是True Positive(TP)时,需要同时满足下面三个条件: Confidence Score > Confidence Threshold 预测类别匹配真实值(Ground truth)的类别 预测边界框的IoU大于设定的IoU阈值 不满足条件2或条件3,则认为是False Positive(FP)。当对应同一个真值有多个预测结果时,只有最高置信度分数的预测结果被认为是True Positive,其余被认为是False Positive。 Precision和Recall的概念如下图所示: Precision表示TP与预测边界框数量的比值 Recall表示TP与真实边界框数量的比值 改变不同的置信度阈值,可以获得多组Precision和Recall,Recall放X轴,Precision放Y轴,可以画出一个Precision-Recall曲线,简称P-R
WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model)是一种由美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)和美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)共同开发的数值天气预报模型,它的特点、优势、主要应用领域和应用前景如下: 特点: 1. WRF是一种非静态和非线性的动力数值模型,能够模拟大气中的各种物理过程,如辐射传输、湍流运动、云微物理、降水等; 2. WRF具有高分辨率、高效率和灵活性,可以根据不同的研究需求进行定制化配置; 3. WRF支持多种物理方案的模型耦合,可以模拟不同时间尺度的天气和气候现象。 优势: 1. WRF具有较高的预报准确度,特别是在局地细节和强对流天气的预报方面有明显优势; 2. WRF可以支持多种数据输入输出格式,能够与其他模型和数据进行无缝连接; 3. WRF具有开源、免费、共享的特点,可以为天气预报和气候研究提供广阔的平台和资源。 主要应用领域: 1. 天气预报:WRF被广泛应用于各种天气预报和预警系统中,如台风、暴雨、雷电等极端天气的预报; 2. 气候模拟:WRF可以模拟不同时间尺度的气候现象,如年际和年代际变化、气候变化趋势等; 3. 空气污染模拟:WRF可以模拟大气污染物的输送、扩散和沉降等过程,对城市环境和健康评估有重要意义。 应用前景: 随着计算机技术和气象观测技术的不断发展,WRF模型在天气预报、气候模拟、环境污染预测等领域的应用前景非常广阔。未来,WRF模型将进一步提高分辨率、精度和可靠性,为人们生产和生活带来更准确的气象信息和服务。
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