990-50产品经理:An Overview of Decision-Making Models 决策模型概述

Model of Decision-Making

Decision-making is the process of selecting the best choices among various options. Every person has to make many decisions on a daily basis, and the decisions range from simple ones, such as what to eat or where to go out for fun, to more complicated and important decisions, such as which university to attend or which major to study. These decisions tend to be personal and only affect one individual at a time. For a top-level manager of a big company, decision-making is another story because his decision can influence hundreds of other employees’ lives and can even change the course of a company. Each manager employs a different decision-making model to evaluate their choices and reach the final decision. However, regardless of the models managers choose, there exist inherent decision-making traps. If they do not recognize and learn to deal with them, they will suffer from choosing the wrong course of action, which can lead to problematic consequences.
决策模型
决策是在各种方案中选择最佳方案的过程。每个人每天都要做很多决定，从简单的决定，比如吃什么，去哪里玩，到更复杂和重要的决定，比如上哪所大学，学哪个专业。这些决定往往是个人的，一次只影响一个人。对于一个大公司的高层管理者来说，决策是另一回事，因为他的决定可以影响数百名其他员工的生活，甚至可以改变一个公司的进程。每个管理者都采用不同的决策模型来评估他们的选择，并达成最终的决定。然而，无论管理者选择何种模式，都存在着固有的决策陷阱。果他们没有认识到并学会处理这些问题，他们就会因为选择了错误的行动方针而遭受痛苦，这可能会导致有问题的后果。

Rational Decision-Making Model

The classic decision-making model is the rational decision-making model, which consists of eight steps that decision-makers need to take to achieve the optimal decision given their goals and constraints. In order to come up with an appropriate decision, they should establish a list of criteria used to evaluate their choices. By adopting this model, the decision-makers have the opportunity to contemplate what things matter the most in their situation and select the choices that best reflect their standards. However, the problem with this model is the fact that people do not always know what they want or have enough information about the available alternatives, and usually, people end up just making a “good enough” or a safe-bet decision.
理性决策模型
经典的决策模型是理性决策模型，它包括决策者在给定目标和约束条件下，为达到最优决策所需要采取的八个步骤。为了做出一个适当的决定，他们应该建立一个标准清单，用来评估他们的选择。通过采用这种模式，决策者有机会考虑在他们的情况下什么事情最重要，并选择最能反映他们标准的选择。然而，这种模式的问题是，人们并不总是知道他们想要什么，也不总是有足够的信息来了解可供选择的方案，通常，人们最终只是做出一个“足够好”或安全的决定。

Intuitive Model

The second decision-making model which is utilized frequently by experts and experienced managers is the intuitive decision-making model. At first, this model appears to be based solely on gut feelings, but closer examination reveals that it is in fact a very sophisticated process in which the manager applies their intuition in many ways. First, they intuitively detect a potential problem and use their intuition to investigate its patterns. In this case, intuition means their painstaking years of experience, expertise, education background, insider information and other valuable resources unknown to an average employee. Intuition also helps them to integrate pieces of isolated data, facts and figures to a complete picture of the whole problem. If there is more than one possible solution to the problem, the manager will use their intuition as a check point to eliminate anti-intuitive decision and go with their gut feelings. One distinctive feature of this decision making model is that acting is a part of the process of defining and analyzing the problems. Managers usually “know” what to do first before they can explain the justification for their actions, and they use the results from their action to further their understanding about the problems.
直观模型
第二种决策模型是专家和有经验的管理者经常使用的直观决策模型。起初，这种模式似乎仅仅基于直觉，但仔细研究就会发现，事实上这是一个非常复杂的过程，在这个过程中，管理者将自己的直觉运用到许多方面。首先，他们直觉地发现一个潜在的问题，并用他们的直觉来调查它的模式。在这种情况下，直觉意味着他们多年的心血经验、专业知识、教育背景、内幕信息以及其他一个普通员工所不知道的宝贵资源。直觉还帮助他们把孤立的数据、事实和数字整合成整个问题的全貌。如果问题有不止一个可能的解决方案，管理者会用他们的直觉作为检查点，排除反直觉的决定，跟着直觉走。这种决策模式的一个显著特点是，行动是定义和分析问题的过程的一部分。管理者通常“知道”首先要做什么，然后才能解释他们行动的理由，他们使用行动的结果来进一步理解问题。

Creative Decision-Making Model

Another decision-making model is the creative decision-making model. This model is applied when the decision maker has to come up with an original and unique decision for a situation. In the decision-making process, after gathering information and insights about the problem and generating some initial ideas, the decision maker undergoes a period of incubation, in which he does not actively think about the solutions but lets his unconscious mind take over the process. After quite some time, the answer just naturally comes to him in a “eureka” moment, and his next step is just to test and finalize it. The downside of this model is the success of it depends mainly on the decision maker’s personal traits, such as his creativity and the contextual situation.
创造性决策模型
另一种决策模式是创造性决策模式。这个模型适用于当决策者必须拿出一个原始的和独特的决定的情况。在决策过程中，决策者在收集有关问题的信息和见解并产生一些初步想法之后，会经历一段潜伏期，在这段时间里，他不会积极思考解决方案，而是让他的潜意识来接管这个过程。经过相当长的一段时间，答案只是自然地来到他的“发现”的时刻，他的下一步只是测试和确定它。这种模式的缺点是它的成功主要取决于决策者的个人特质，如他的创造力和情境。

Recognition-Primed Model
This decision-making model was developed by Gary A. Klein in his book Recognition-Primed Decision Model. This model incorporates contextual assessment and mental evaluation to come up with the best reaction to a problem. The characterizing element of this model is that decision makers consider only one option instead of weighing several choices at a time. After recognizing the problem, the manager identifies its characteristics, including the goals, problem cues, expectations and typical actions to take in the situation. After that, the manager will think through the plan, conducting a mental simulation of the scenario to see if it works and making suitable modifications if necessary. If he thinks the plan is sufficient, he makes it his final decision. An alternative is only assessed if the initial plan does not work out in the manager’s opinion. Although this decision-making model can be applied when managers are under time pressure, its success rate correlates with managers’ experiences and expertise.
识别素数模型
这个决策模型是由Gary A. Klein在他的著作Recognition-Primed Decision Model中提出的。该模型结合了情境评估和心理评估，提出了对问题的最佳反应。这个模型的特点是决策者只考虑一个选项，而不是权衡几个选择的时间。在认识到问题之后，管理者确定其特征，包括目标、问题线索、期望和在这种情况下采取的典型行动。之后，经理会对计划进行全面思考，对方案进行心理模拟，看看是否可行，并在必要时进行适当的修改。如果他认为这个计划是足够的，他把它作为他的最后决定。只有在经理认为初始计划不可行的情况下，才对备选方案进行评估。虽然这种决策模型在管理者有时间压力的情况下可以应用，但其成功率与管理者的经验和专业知识相关。

Common Decision-Making Traps: Confidence Bias

Obviously, each decision - making model has its own pros and cons. Moreover, there are also decision-making traps that decision makers should be aware of so that they can avoid letting those traps cloud their judgment. First of all, confidence bias is a very common problem, especially among seasoned managers. Clearly, it is very important that the manager should be confident, particularly in a critical time when the company requires pivotal decisions. However, if the manager is overconfident, and is blinded by his past success, he can become careless, oversimplify the situation or miss some key information, and end up making a risky decision or even a costly one for the company. Hence, before making any decisions based on past experiences and personal opinion, decision makers should spend some time to detach themselves from the situation and look at their decision with an objective attitude.
常见的决策陷阱：信心偏差
显然，每一种决策模式都有自己的优点和缺点。此外，也有决策陷阱，决策者应该意识到，这样他们就可以避免让这些陷阱影响他们的判断。首先，信心偏差是一个非常普遍的问题，尤其是在经验丰富的经理人当中。显然，这是非常重要的，经理人应该有信心，特别是在关键时刻，当公司需要关键的决策。然而，如果管理者过于自信，被过去的成功蒙蔽了双眼，他可能会变得粗心大意，将情况过于简单化或错过一些关键信息，最终做出一个冒险的决定，甚至为公司付出代价。因此，在根据过去的经验和个人观点做出任何决定之前，决策者应该花一些时间将自己从情境中抽离出来，以客观的态度来看待他们的决定。

Common Traps: Hindsight Bias

Hindsight bias is also likely to obscure decision makers’ judgment. After a problem occurs, detecting the person or event at fault that leads to the problem is an important part of finding the right solution. However, if holding a hindsight bias, the manager can blame the problem on the wrong person/ department because he only selectively looks back at certain events in the past instead of getting the whole picture of what really happened. This can cause internal conflict and endless accusations, which are detrimental to an organization in the time of crisis. Moreover, by identifying the wrong cause, the manager increases the chances of making a faulty decision.
常见陷阱：后见之明偏差
后见之明偏差也可能会模糊决策者的判断。问题发生后，检测导致问题的错误人员或事件是找到正确解决方案的重要组成部分。然而，如果抱着后见之明的偏见，管理者可能会把问题归咎于错误的人/部门，因为他只是选择性地回顾过去的某些事件，而不是全面了解真正发生了什么。这可能导致内部冲突和无休止的指责，这在危机时刻对一个组织是有害的。此外，通过识别错误的原因，管理者增加了做出错误决定的机会。

Common Traps: Anchoring Bias

Next, anchoring bias can impede a decision-maker. Researchers have shown that people have the tendency to just see what they want to see, and they make decisions only based on those pieces of information. This bias is very dangerous because it might make the situation appear brighter than it actually is, and it conceals other perspectives of the problems from the decision maker. In addition, if the decision maker only focuses on some specific information, he might overlook other possibilities or alternatives to decide on a more effective solution. Framing bias is another related trap when the decision maker is deceived by the way the problem is presented to him. Both of these biases distort the nature of the problems and hinder the decision maker’s ability to think out of the box.

常见陷阱：锚定偏差
其次，锚定偏见可以阻碍决策者。研究表明，人们倾向于只看到他们想看到的东西，他们只根据这些信息来做决定。这种偏见是非常危险的，因为它可能使情况看起来比实际情况更光明，而且它对决策者隐藏了问题的其他角度。此外，如果决策者只关注一些特定的信息，他可能会忽略其他的可能性或替代方案，以决定一个更有效的解决方案。框架偏见是另一个相关的陷阱，当决策者被问题呈现给他的方式所欺骗时。这两种偏见都扭曲了问题的本质，阻碍了决策者跳出思维定势的能力。

Common Traps: Escalation of Commitment

Last but not least, escalation of commitment is often considered a fatal trap. Nobody wants to admit that his decision is a mistake, and managers are especially defensive of their decisions. Also, some managers believe that the plan does not work out yet just because they haven’t spend enough time and efforts, and they want to commit further to it. However, once there is enough evidence to prove that the current decision is a bad move, continuing to execute it will only lead to more damages to the organization. A wise manager is someone who not only knows how to make good decisions but also recognizes a bad one and has the courage to abandon it and embark on a new track.
常见陷阱：承诺的升级
最后但并非最不重要的是，承诺升级往往被认为是一个致命的陷阱。没有人愿意承认自己的决定是个错误，经理们尤其为自己的决定辩护。此外，一些管理者认为，该计划还没有工作，只是因为他们没有花足够的时间和精力，他们想进一步承诺。然而，一旦有足够的证据证明当前的决策是一步糟糕的棋，继续执行只会给组织带来更大的损害。一个明智的管理者不仅知道如何做出好的决策，而且还能认识到错误的决策，并有勇气放弃它，走上新的轨道。

A Crucial Skill

In order to become a successful decision-maker, a person should learn to apply the appropriate decision-making model in each situation and practice it frequently to master its use. More importantly, one should avoid decision-making traps so that they will not cloud one’s judgement. For senior managers whose decisions can impact the lives of hundreds of people, they should invest more time in exploring more decision-making tools and techniques to prevent them from falling into those traps and help them make better decisions.
至关重要的技能
一个人要想成为一个成功的决策者，就应该学会在各种情况下应用适当的决策模型，并经常练习，以掌握其用法。更重要的是，我们应该避免决策陷阱，这样它们就不会影响我们的判断。对于高层管理者来说，他们的决策可能会影响成百上千人的生活，他们应该投入更多的时间来探索更多的决策工具和技巧，以防止他们陷入那些陷阱，帮助他们做出更好的决策。