AR
Time Series Analysis
author:zoxiii
AR
【参考文献】王燕. 应用时间序列分析-第5版[M]. 中国人民大学出版社, 2019.
0-模型
AR(q)
{ x t = ϕ 0 + ϕ 1 x t − 1 + . . . + ϕ p x t − p + ε t ϕ p ≠ 0 E ( ε t ) = 0 , V a r ( ε t ) = σ ε 2 , E ( ε t ε s ) = 0 , s ≠ t E ( x s ε t ) = 0 , ∀ s < t \begin{cases} x_t=\phi_0+\phi_1x_{t-1}+...+\phi_px_{t-p}+\varepsilon_t \\ \phi_p \neq 0\\ E(\varepsilon_t)=0,Var(\varepsilon_t)=\sigma_\varepsilon^2,E(\varepsilon_t\varepsilon_s)=0,s \neq t \\ E(x_s\varepsilon_t)=0,\forall s \lt t \end{cases} ⎩⎪⎪⎪⎨⎪⎪⎪⎧xt=ϕ0+ϕ1xt−1+...+ϕpxt−p+εtϕp=0E(εt)=0,Var(εt)=σε2,E(εtεs)=0,s=tE(xsεt)=0,∀s<t
中心化AR(q)
x t = ϕ 1 x t − 1 + . . . + ϕ p x t − p + ε t x_t=\phi_1x_{t-1}+...+\phi_px_{t-p}+\varepsilon_t xt=ϕ1xt−1+...+ϕpxt−p+εt
引入延迟算子B
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x_t=\phi_1x_{t-1}+...+\phi_px_{t-p}+\varepsilon_t \\ ~=\phi_1Bx_t+...+\phi_pB^px_t+\varepsilon_t\\ =\Phi(B)\varepsilon_t~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
xt=ϕ1xt−1+...+ϕpxt−p+εt =ϕ1Bxt+...+ϕpBpxt+εt=Φ(B)εt
得到q阶自回归系数多项式:
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\Phi(B)=1-\phi_1B-\phi_2B^2-...-\phi_pB^p
Φ(B)=1−ϕ1B−ϕ2B2−...−ϕpBp
1-均值
μ = ϕ 0 1 − ϕ 1 − . . . − ϕ p \mu=\frac{\phi_0}{1-\phi_1-...-\phi_p} μ=1−ϕ1−...−ϕpϕ0
2-Green函数
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\left \{ \begin{array}{c} G_0=1 \\ G_j=\sum_{k=1}^{j}{\phi_k'G_{j-k}} \end{array} \right.
{G0=1Gj=∑k=1jϕk′Gj−k
其中:
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\phi_k' =\begin{cases} \phi_k, k\le p \\ 0, k\gt p \end{cases}
ϕk′={ϕk,k≤p0,k>p
Green推导公式过程
x t = ε t Φ ( B ) = G ( B ) ε t x_t=\frac{\varepsilon_t}{\Phi\left(B\right)}=G(B)\varepsilon_t xt=Φ(B)εt=G(B)εt
Φ ( B ) G ( B ) ε t = ε t \Phi\left(B\right)G\left(B\right)\varepsilon_t=\varepsilon_t Φ(B)G(B)εt=εt
( 1 − ∑ k = 1 p ( ϕ k B k ) ) ( ∑ j = 0 ∞ ( G j B j ) ) ε t = ε t \left(1-\sum_{k=1}^{p}\left(\phi_kB^k\right)\right)\left(\sum_{j=0}^{\infty}\left(G_jB^j\right)\right)\varepsilon_t=\varepsilon_t (1−k=1∑p(ϕkBk))(j=0∑∞(GjBj))εt=εt
( ∑ j = 0 ∞ G j B j − ∑ k = 1 p ∑ j = 0 ∞ ϕ k B k G j B j ) ε t = ε t \left(\sum_{j=0}^{\infty}{G_jB^j}-\sum_{k=1}^{p}\sum_{j=0}^{\infty}{\phi_kB^kG_jB^j}\right)\varepsilon_t=\varepsilon_t (j=0∑∞GjBj−k=1∑pj=0∑∞ϕkBkGjBj)εt=εt
( G 0 + ∑ j = 1 ∞ ( G j − ∑ k = 1 j ϕ k ′ G j − k ) B j ) ε t = ε t \left(G_0+\sum_{j=1}^{\infty}\left(G_j-\sum_{k=1}^{j}{{\phi_k}^\prime G_{j-k}}\right)B_j\right)\varepsilon_t=\varepsilon_t (G0+j=1∑∞(Gj−k=1∑jϕk′Gj−k)Bj)εt=εt
3-方差
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Var(x_t)=\sum_{j=0}^{\infty}{G_j^2Var(\varepsilon_{t-j})}=\sum_{j=0}^{\infty}{G_j^2\sigma_\varepsilon^2}
Var(xt)=j=0∑∞Gj2Var(εt−j)=j=0∑∞Gj2σε2
或者
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Var(x_t)=\gamma_0
Var(xt)=γ0
4-延迟k协方差函数
AR(1)
γ k = ϕ 1 k σ ε 2 1 − ϕ 1 2 \gamma_k=\phi_1^k\frac{\sigma_\varepsilon^2}{1-\phi_1^2} γk=ϕ1k1−ϕ12σε2
AR(2)
{ γ 0 = 1 − ϕ 2 ( 1 + ϕ 2 ) ( 1 − ϕ 1 − ϕ 2 ) ( 1 + ϕ 1 − ϕ 2 ) σ ε 2 γ 1 = ϕ 1 1 − ϕ 2 γ 0 γ k = ϕ 1 γ k − 1 + ϕ 2 γ k − 2 \left \{ \begin{array}{c} \gamma_0=\frac{1-\phi_2}{(1+\phi_2)(1-\phi_1-\phi_2)(1+\phi_1-\phi_2)}{\sigma_\varepsilon^2} \\ \gamma_1=\frac{\phi_1}{1-\phi_2}{\gamma_0} \\ \gamma_k=\phi_1\gamma_{k-1}+\phi_2\gamma_{k-2} \end{array} \right. ⎩⎪⎨⎪⎧γ0=(1+ϕ2)(1−ϕ1−ϕ2)(1+ϕ1−ϕ2)1−ϕ2σε2γ1=1−ϕ2ϕ1γ0γk=ϕ1γk−1+ϕ2γk−2
5-延迟k自相关系数
AR(1)
ρ k = γ k γ 0 = ϕ 1 k \rho_k=\frac{\gamma_k}{\gamma_0}=\phi_1^k ρk=γ0γk=ϕ1k
AR(2)
{ ρ 0 = γ 0 γ 0 = 1 ρ 1 = γ 1 γ 0 = ϕ 1 1 − ϕ 2 ρ k = γ k γ 0 = ϕ 1 ρ k − 1 + ϕ 2 ρ k − 2 \left \{ \begin{array}{c} \rho_0=\frac{\gamma_0}{\gamma_0}=1\\ \rho_1=\frac{\gamma_1}{\gamma_0}=\frac{\phi_1}{1-\phi_2}\\ \rho_k=\frac{\gamma_k}{\gamma_0}=\phi_1\rho_{k-1}+\phi_2\rho_{k-2} \end{array} \right. ⎩⎪⎨⎪⎧ρ0=γ0γ0=1ρ1=γ0γ1=1−ϕ2ϕ1ρk=γ0γk=ϕ1ρk−1+ϕ2ρk−2
6-延迟k偏自相关系数
AR(1)
{ ϕ 11 = ρ 1 ρ 0 ϕ k k = 0 , ∀ k > 1 \left \{ \begin{array}{c} \phi_{11}=\frac{\rho_1}{\rho_0} \\ \phi_{kk}=0,\forall k\gt 1 \end{array} \right. {ϕ11=ρ0ρ1ϕkk=0,∀k>1
AR(2)
{ ϕ 11 = ρ 1 ρ 0 = ϕ 1 1 − ϕ 2 ϕ 22 = ϕ 2 ϕ k k = 0 , ∀ k > 2 \left \{ \begin{array}{c} \phi_{11}=\frac{\rho_1}{\rho_0}=\frac{\phi_1}{1-\phi_2} \\ \phi_{22}=\phi_2\\ \phi_{kk}=0,\forall k\gt 2 \end{array} \right. ⎩⎨⎧ϕ11=ρ0ρ1=1−ϕ2ϕ1ϕ22=ϕ2ϕkk=0,∀k>2
7-AR模型平稳性判别(特征根+平稳域)
AR(1)
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x_t=\phi_1x_{t-1}+\varepsilon_t
xt=ϕ1xt−1+εt
特征方程
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\lambda-\phi_1=0
λ−ϕ1=0
特征根
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平稳充要条件:特征根在单位圆内,即
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∣ϕ1∣<1
平稳域为
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\{\phi_1|-1<\phi_1<1\}
{ϕ1∣−1<ϕ1<1}
AR(2)
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x_t=\phi_1x_{t-1}+\phi_2x_{t-2}+\varepsilon_t
xt=ϕ1xt−1+ϕ2xt−2+εt
特征方程
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\lambda^2-\phi_1\lambda-\phi_2=0
λ2−ϕ1λ−ϕ2=0
特征根
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\lambda_1=\frac{\phi_1+\sqrt{\phi_1^2+4\phi_2}}{2},\lambda_2=\frac{\phi_1-\sqrt{\phi_1^2+4\phi_2}}{2}
λ1=2ϕ1+ϕ12+4ϕ2,λ2=2ϕ1−ϕ12+4ϕ2
平稳充要条件:特征根在单位圆内,即
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∣λ1∣<1且∣λ2∣<1
平稳域为
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\{\phi_1,\phi_2||\phi_2|<1且\phi_2\pm\phi_1<1\}
{ϕ1,ϕ2∣∣ϕ2∣<1且ϕ2±ϕ1<1}