案例1，假设有两碗曲奇饼，碗1包含30个香草曲奇饼和10个巧克力曲奇饼，碗2有香草曲奇饼20个和巧克力曲奇饼20个。碗1和碗2都放在黑箱中，问从黑箱里的碗1中取到香草曲奇饼的概率?
解：根据贝叶斯定理：
使用Python语言实求条件概率。
1. 库文件 thinkbayes.py
"""This file contains class definitions for:
Hist: represents a histogram (map from values to integer frequencies).
Pmf: represents a probability mass function (map from values to probs).
_DictWrapper: private parent class for Hist and Pmf.
Cdf: represents a discrete cumulative distribution function
Pdf: represents a continuous probability density function
"""
import bisect
import copy
import logging
import math
import numpy
import random
import scipy.stats
from scipy.special import erf, erfinv, gammaln
ROOT2 = math.sqrt(2)
def RandomSeed(x):
"""Initialize the random and numpy.random generators.
x: int seed
"""
random.seed(x)
numpy.random.seed(x)
def Odds(p):
"""Computes odds for a given probability.
Example: p=0.75 means 75 for and 25 against, or 3:1 odds in favor.
Note: when p=1, the formula for odds divides by zero, which is
normally undefined. But I think it is reasonable to define Odds(1)
to be infinity, so that's what this function does.
p: float 0-1
Returns: float odds
"""
if p == 1:
return float('inf')
return p / (1 - p)
def Probability(o):
"""Computes the probability corresponding to given odds.
Example: o=2 means 2:1 odds in favor, or 2/3 probability
o: float odds, strictly positive
Returns: float probability
"""
return o / (o + 1)
def Probability2(yes, no):
"""Computes the probability corresponding to given odds.
Example: yes=2, no=1 means 2:1 odds in favor, or 2/3 probability.
yes, no: int or float odds in favor
"""
return float(yes) / (yes + no)
class Interpolator(object):
"""Represents a mapping between sorted sequences; performs linear interp.
Attributes:
xs: sorted list
ys: sorted list
"""
def __init__(self, xs, ys):
self.xs = xs
self.ys = ys
def Lookup(self, x):
"""Looks up x and returns the corresponding value of y."""
return self._Bisect(x, self.xs, self.ys)
def Reverse(self, y):
"""Looks up y and returns the corresponding value of x."""
return self._Bisect(y, self.ys, self.xs)
def _Bisect(self, x, xs, ys):
"""Helper function."""
if x <= xs[0]:
return ys[0]
if x >= xs[-1]:
return ys[-1]
i = bisect.bisect(xs, x)
frac = 1.0 * (x - xs[i - 1]) / (xs[i] - xs[i - 1])
y = ys[i - 1] + frac * 1.0 * (ys[i] - ys[i - 1])
return y
class _DictWrapper(object):
"""An object that contains a dictionary."""
def __init__(self, values=None, name=''):
"""Initializes the distribution.
hypos: sequence of hypotheses
"""
self.name = name
self.d = {}
# flag whether the distribution is under a log transform
self.log = False
if values is None:
return
init_methods = [
self.InitPmf,
self.InitMapping,
self.InitSequence,
self.InitFailure,
]
for method in init_methods:
try:
method(values)
break
except AttributeError:
continue
if len(self) > 0:
self.Normalize()
def InitSequence(self, values):
"""Initializes with a sequence of equally-likely values.
values: sequence of values
"""
for value in values:
self.Set(value, 1)
def InitMapping(self, values):
"""Initializes with a map from value to probability.
values: map from value to probability
"""
for value, prob in values.iteritems():
self.Set(value, prob)
def InitPmf(self, values):
"""Initializes with a Pmf.
values: Pmf object
"""
for value, prob in values.Items():
self.Set(value, prob)
def InitFailure(self, values):
"""Raises an error."""
raise ValueError('None of the initialization methods worked.')
def __len__(self):
return len(self.d)
def __iter__(self):
return iter(self.d)
def iterkeys(self):
return iter(self.d)
def __contains__(self, value):
return value in self.d
def Copy(self, name=None):
"""Returns a copy.
Make a shallow copy of d. If you want a deep copy of d,
use copy.deepcopy on the whole object.
Args:
name: string name for the new Hist
"""
new = copy.copy(self)
new.d = copy.copy(self.d)
new.name = name if name is not None else self.name
return new
def Scale(self, factor):
"""Multiplies the values by a factor.
factor: what to multiply by
Returns: new object
"""
new = self.Copy()
new.d.clear()
for val, prob in self.Items():
new.Set(val * factor, prob)
return new
def Log(self, m=None):
"""Log transforms the probabilities.
Removes values with probability 0.
Normalizes so that the largest logprob is 0.
"""
if self.log:
raise ValueError("Pmf/Hist already under a log transform")
self.log = True
if m is None:
m = self.MaxLike()
for x, p in self.d.iteritems():
if p:
self.Set(x, math.log(p / m))
else:
self.Remove(x)
def Exp(self, m=None):
"""Exponentiates the probabilities.
m: how much to shift the ps before exponentiating
If m is None, normalizes so that the largest prob is 1.
"""
if not self.log:
raise ValueError("Pmf/Hist not under a log transform")
self.log = False
if m is None:
m = self.MaxLike()
for x, p in self.d.iteritems():
self.Set(x, math.exp(p - m))
def GetDict(self):
"""Gets the dictionary."""
return self.d
def SetDict(self, d):
"""Sets the dictionary."""
self.d = d
def Values(self):
"""Gets an unsorted sequence of values.
Note: one source of confusion is that the keys of this
dictionary are the values of the Hist/Pmf, and the
values of the dictionary are frequencies/probabilities.
"""
return self.d.keys()
def Items(self):
"""Gets an unsorted sequence of (value, freq/prob) pairs."""
return self.d.items()
def Render(self):
"""Generates a sequence of points suitable for plotting.
Returns:
tuple of (sorted value sequence, freq/prob sequence)
"""
return zip(*sorted(self.Items()))
def Print(self):
"""Prints the values and freqs/probs in ascending order."""
for val, prob in sorted(self.d.iteritems()):
print val, prob
def Set(self, x, y=0):
"""Sets the freq/prob associated with the value x.
Args:
x: number value
y: number freq or prob
"""
self.d[x] = y
def Incr(self, x, term=1):
"""Increments the freq/prob associated with the value x.
Args:
x: number value
term: how much to increment by
"""
self.d[x] = self.d.get(x, 0) + term
def Mult(self, x, factor):
"""Scales the freq/prob associated with the value x.
Args:
x: number value
factor: how much to multiply by
"""
self.d[x] = self.d.get(x, 0) * factor
def Remove(self, x):
"""Removes a value.
Throws an exception if the value is not there.
Args:
x: value to remove
"""
del self.d[x]
def Total(self):
"""Returns the total of the frequencies/probabilities in the map."""
total = sum(self.d.itervalues())
return total
def MaxLike(self):
"""Returns the largest frequency/probability in the map."""
return max(self.d.itervalues())
class Hist(_DictWrapper):
"""Represents a histogram, which is a map from values to frequencies.
Values can be any hashable type; frequencies are integer counters.
"""
def Freq(self, x):
"""Gets the frequency associated with the value x.
Args:
x: number value
Returns:
int frequency
"""
return self.d.get(x, 0)
def Freqs(self, xs):
"""Gets frequencies for a sequence of values."""
return [self.Freq(x) for x in xs]
def IsSubset(self, other):
"""Checks whether the values in this histogram are a subset of
the values in the given histogram."""
for val, freq in self.Items():
if freq > other.Freq(val):
return False
return True
def Subtract(self, other):
"""Subtracts the values in the given histogram from this histogram."""
for val, freq in other.Items():
self.Incr(val, -freq)
class Pmf(_DictWrapper):
"""Represents a probability mass function.
Values can be any hashable type; probabilities are floating-point.
Pmfs are not necessarily normalized.
"""
def Prob(self, x, default=0):
"""Gets the probability associated with the value x.
Args:
x: number value
default: value to return if the key is not there
Returns:
float probability
"""
return self.d.get(x, default)
def Probs(self, xs):
"""Gets probabilities for a sequence of values."""
return [self.Prob(x) for x in xs]
def MakeCdf(self, name=None):
"""Makes a Cdf."""
return MakeCdfFromPmf(self, name=name)
def ProbGreater(self, x):
"""Probability that a sample from this Pmf exceeds x.
x: number
returns: float probability
"""
t = [prob for (val, prob) in self.d.iteritems() if val > x]
return sum(t)
def ProbLess(self, x):
"""Probability that a sample from this Pmf is less than x.
x: number
returns: float probability
"""
t = [prob for (val, prob) in self.d.iteritems() if val < x]
return sum(t)
def __lt__(self, obj):
"""Less than.
obj: number or _DictWrapper
returns: float probability
"""
if isinstance(obj, _DictWrapper):
return PmfProbLess(self, obj)
else:
return self.ProbLess(obj)
def __gt__(self, obj):
"""Greater than.
obj: number or _DictWrapper
returns: float probability
"""
if isinstance(obj, _DictWrapper):
return PmfProbGreater(self, obj)
else:
return self.ProbGreater(obj)
def __ge__(self, obj):
"""Greater than or equal.
obj: number or _DictWrapper
returns: float probability
"""
return 1 - (self < obj)
def __le__(self, obj):
"""Less than or equal.
obj: number or _DictWrapper
returns: float probability
"""
return 1 - (self > obj)
def __eq__(self, obj):
"""Equal to.
obj: number or _DictWrapper
returns: float probability
"""
if isinstance(obj, _DictWrapper):
return PmfProbEqual(self, obj)
else:
return self.Prob(obj)
def __ne__(self, obj):
"""Not equal to.
obj: number or _DictWrapper
returns: float probability
"""
return 1 - (self == obj)
def Normalize(self, fraction=1.0):
"""Normalizes this PMF so the sum of all probs is fraction.
Args:
fraction: what the total should be after normalization
Returns: the total probability before normalizing
"""
if self.log:
raise ValueError("Pmf is under a log transform")
total = self.Total()
if total == 0.0:
raise ValueError('total probability is zero.')
logging.warning('Normalize: total probability is zero.')
return total
factor = float(fraction) / total
for x in self.d:
self.d[x] *= factor
return total
def Random(self):
"""Chooses a random element from this PMF.
Returns:
float value from the Pmf
"""
if len(self.d) == 0:
raise ValueError('Pmf contains no values.')
target = random.random()
total = 0.0
for x, p in self.d.iteritems():
total += p
if total >= target:
return x
# we shouldn't get here
assert False
def Mean(self):
"""Computes the mean of a PMF.
Returns:
float mean
"""
mu = 0.0
for x, p in self.d.iteritems():
mu += p * x
return mu
def Var(self, mu=None):
"""Computes the variance of a PMF.
Args:
mu: the point around which the variance is computed;
if omitted, computes the mean
Returns:
float variance
"""
if mu is None:
mu = self.Mean()
var = 0.0
for x, p in self.d.iteritems():
var += p * (x - mu) ** 2
return var
def MaximumLikelihood(self):
"""Returns the value with the highest probability.
Returns: float probability
"""
prob, val = max((prob, val) for val, prob in self.Items())
return val
def CredibleInterval(self, percentage=90):
"""Computes the central credible interval.
If percentage=90, computes the 90% CI.
Args:
percentage: float between 0 and 100
Returns:
sequence of two floats, low and high
"""
cdf = self.MakeCdf()
return cdf.CredibleInterval(percentage)
def __add__(self, other):
"""Computes the Pmf of the sum of values drawn from self and other.
other: another Pmf
returns: new Pmf
"""
try:
return self.AddPmf(other)
except AttributeError:
return self.AddConstant(other)
def AddPmf(self, other):
"""Computes the Pmf of the sum of values drawn from self and other.
other: another Pmf
returns: new Pmf
"""
pmf = Pmf()
for v1, p1 in self.Items():
for v2, p2 in other.Items():
pmf.Incr(v1 + v2, p1 * p2)
return pmf
def AddConstant(self, other):
"""Computes the Pmf of the sum a constant and values from self.
other: a number
returns: new Pmf
"""
pmf = Pmf()
for v1, p1 in self.Items():
pmf.Set(v1 + other, p1)
return pmf
def __sub__(self, other):
"""Computes the Pmf of the diff of values drawn from self and other.
other: another Pmf
returns: new Pmf
"""
pmf = Pmf()
for v1, p1 in self.Items():
for v2, p2 in other.Items():
pmf.Incr(v1 - v2, p1 * p2)
return pmf
def Max(self, k):
"""Computes the CDF of the maximum of k selections from this dist.
k: int
returns: new Cdf
"""
cdf = self.MakeCdf()
cdf.ps = [p ** k for p in cdf.ps]
return cdf
class Joint(Pmf):
"""Represents a joint distribution.
The values are sequences (usually tuples)
"""
def Marginal(self, i, name=''):
"""Gets the marginal distribution of the indicated variable.
i: index of the variable we want
Returns: Pmf
"""
pmf = Pmf(name=name)
for vs, prob in self.Items():
pmf.Incr(vs[i], prob)
return pmf
def Conditional(self, i, j, val, name=''):
"""Gets the conditional distribution of the indicated variable.
Distribution of vs[i], conditioned on vs[j] = val.
i: index of the variable we want
j: which variable is conditioned on
val: the value the jth variable has to have
Returns: Pmf
"""
pmf = Pmf(name=name)
for vs, prob in self.Items():
if vs[j] != val: continue
pmf.Incr(vs[i], prob)
pmf.Normalize()
return pmf
def MaxLikeInterval(self, percentage=90):
"""Returns the maximum-likelihood credible interval.
If percentage=90, computes a 90% CI containing the values
with the highest likelihoods.
percentage: float between 0 and 100
Returns: list of values from the suite
"""
interval = []
total = 0
t = [(prob, val) for val, prob in self.Items()]
t.sort(reverse=True)
for prob, val in t:
interval.append(val)
total += prob
if total >= percentage / 100.0:
break
return interval
def MakeJoint(pmf1, pmf2):
"""Joint distribution of values from pmf1 and pmf2.
Args:
pmf1: Pmf object
pmf2: Pmf object
Returns:
Joint pmf of value pairs
"""
joint = Joint()
for v1, p1 in pmf1.Items():
for v2, p2 in pmf2.Items():
joint.Set((v1, v2), p1 * p2)
return joint
def MakeHistFromList(t, name=''):
"""Makes a histogram from an unsorted sequence of values.
Args:
t: sequence of numbers
name: string name for this histogram
Returns:
Hist object
"""
hist = Hist(name=name)
[hist.Incr(x) for x in t]
return hist
def MakeHistFromDict(d, name=''):
"""Makes a histogram from a map from values to frequencies.
Args:
d: dictionary that maps values to frequencies
name: string name for this histogram
Returns:
Hist object
"""
return Hist(d, name)
def MakePmfFromList(t, name=''):
"""Makes a PMF from an unsorted sequence of values.
Args:
t: sequence of numbers
name: string name for this PMF
Returns:
Pmf object
"""
hist = MakeHistFromList(t)
d = hist.GetDict()
pmf = Pmf(d, name)
pmf.Normalize()
return pmf
def MakePmfFromDict(d, name=''):
"""Makes a PMF from a map from values to probabilities.
Args:
d: dictionary that maps values to probabilities
name: string name for this PMF
Returns:
Pmf object
"""
pmf = Pmf(d, name)
pmf.Normalize()
return pmf
def MakePmfFromItems(t, name=''):
"""Makes a PMF from a sequence of value-probability pairs
Args:
t: sequence of value-probability pairs
name: string name for this PMF
Returns:
Pmf object
"""
pmf = Pmf(dict(t), name)
pmf.Normalize()
return pmf
def MakePmfFromHist(hist, name=None):
"""Makes a normalized PMF from a Hist object.
Args:
hist: Hist object
name: string name
Returns:
Pmf object
"""
if name is None:
name = hist.name
# make a copy of the dictionary
d = dict(hist.GetDict())
pmf = Pmf(d, name)
pmf.Normalize()
return pmf
def MakePmfFromCdf(cdf, name=None):
"""Makes a normalized Pmf from a Cdf object.
Args:
cdf: Cdf object
name: string name for the new Pmf
Returns:
Pmf object
"""
if name is None:
name = cdf.name
pmf = Pmf(name=name)
prev = 0.0
for val, prob in cdf.Items():
pmf.Incr(val, prob - prev)
prev = prob
return pmf
def MakeMixture(metapmf, name='mix'):
"""Make a mixture distribution.
Args:
metapmf: Pmf that maps from Pmfs to probs.
name: string name for the new Pmf.
Returns: Pmf object.
"""
mix = Pmf(name=name)
for pmf, p1 in metapmf.Items():
for x, p2 in pmf.Items():
mix.Incr(x, p1 * p2)
return mix
def MakeUniformPmf(low, high, n):
"""Make a uniform Pmf.
low: lowest value (inclusive)
high: highest value (inclusize)
n: number of values
"""
pmf = Pmf()
for x in numpy.linspace(low, high, n):
pmf.Set(x, 1)
pmf.Normalize()
return pmf
class Cdf(object):
"""Represents a cumulative distribution function.
Attributes:
xs: sequence of values
ps: sequence of probabilities
name: string used as a graph label.
"""
def __init__(self, xs=None, ps=None, name=''):
self.xs = [] if xs is None else xs
self.ps = [] if ps is None else ps
self.name = name
def Copy(self, name=None):
"""Returns a copy of this Cdf.
Args:
name: string name for the new Cdf
"""
if name is None:
name = self.name
return Cdf(list(self.xs), list(self.ps), name)
def MakePmf(self, name=None):
"""Makes a Pmf."""
return MakePmfFromCdf(self, name=name)
def Values(self):
"""Returns a sorted list of values.
"""
return self.xs
def Items(self):
"""Returns a sorted sequence of (value, probability) pairs.
Note: in Python3, returns an iterator.
"""
return zip(self.xs, self.ps)
def Append(self, x, p):
"""Add an (x, p) pair to the end of this CDF.
Note: this us normally used to build a CDF from scratch, not
to modify existing CDFs. It is up to the caller to make sure
that the result is a legal CDF.
"""
self.xs.append(x)
self.ps.append(p)
def Shift(self, term):
"""Adds a term to the xs.
term: how much to add
"""
new = self.Copy()
new.xs = [x + term for x in self.xs]
return new
def Scale(self, factor):
"""Multiplies the xs by a factor.
factor: what to multiply by
"""
new = self.Copy()
new.xs = [x * factor for x in self.xs]
return new
def Prob(self, x):
"""Returns CDF(x), the probability that corresponds to value x.
Args:
x: number
Returns:
float probability
"""
if x < self.xs[0]: return 0.0
index = bisect.bisect(self.xs, x)
p = self.ps[index - 1]
return p
def Value(self, p):
"""Returns InverseCDF(p), the value that corresponds to probability p.
Args:
p: number in the range [0, 1]
Returns:
number value
"""
if p < 0 or p > 1:
raise ValueError('Probability p must be in range [0, 1]')
if p == 0: return self.xs[0]
if p == 1: return self.xs[-1]
index = bisect.bisect(self.ps, p)
if p == self.ps[index - 1]:
return self.xs[index - 1]
else:
return self.xs[index]
def Percentile(self, p):
"""Returns the value that corresponds to percentile p.
Args:
p: number in the range [0, 100]
Returns:
number value
"""
return self.Value(p / 100.0)
def Random(self):
"""Chooses a random value from this distribution."""
return self.Value(random.random())
def Sample(self, n):
"""Generates a random sample from this distribution.
Args:
n: int length of the sample
"""
return [self.Random() for i in range(n)]
def Mean(self):
"""Computes the mean of a CDF.
Returns:
float mean
"""
old_p = 0
total = 0.0
for x, new_p in zip(self.xs, self.ps):
p = new_p - old_p
total += p * x
old_p = new_p
return total
def CredibleInterval(self, percentage=90):
"""Computes the central credible interval.
If percentage=90, computes the 90% CI.
Args:
percentage: float between 0 and 100
Returns:
sequence of two floats, low and high
"""
prob = (1 - percentage / 100.0) / 2
interval = self.Value(prob), self.Value(1 - prob)
return interval
def _Round(self, multiplier=1000.0):
"""
An entry is added to the cdf only if the percentile differs
from the previous value in a significant digit, where the number
of significant digits is determined by multiplier. The
default is 1000, which keeps log10(1000) = 3 significant digits.
"""
# TODO(write this method)
raise UnimplementedMethodException()
def Render(self):
"""Generates a sequence of points suitable for plotting.
An empirical CDF is a step function; linear interpolation
can be misleading.
Returns:
tuple of (xs, ps)
"""
xs = [self.xs[0]]
ps = [0.0]
for i, p in enumerate(self.ps):
xs.append(self.xs[i])
ps.append(p)
try:
xs.append(self.xs[i + 1])
ps.append(p)
except IndexError:
pass
return xs, ps
def Max(self, k):
"""Computes the CDF of the maximum of k selections from this dist.
k: int
returns: new Cdf
"""
cdf = self.Copy()
cdf.ps = [p ** k for p in cdf.ps]
return cdf
def MakeCdfFromItems(items, name=''):
"""Makes a cdf from an unsorted sequence of (value, frequency) pairs.
Args:
items: unsorted sequence of (value, frequency) pairs
name: string name for this CDF
Returns:
cdf: list of (value, fraction) pairs
"""
runsum = 0
xs = []
cs = []
for value, count in sorted(items):
runsum += count
xs.append(value)
cs.append(runsum)
total = float(runsum)
ps = [c / total for c in cs]
cdf = Cdf(xs, ps, name)
return cdf
def MakeCdfFromDict(d, name=''):
"""Makes a CDF from a dictionary that maps values to frequencies.
Args:
d: dictionary that maps values to frequencies.
name: string name for the data.
Returns:
Cdf object
"""
return MakeCdfFromItems(d.iteritems(), name)
def MakeCdfFromHist(hist, name=''):
"""Makes a CDF from a Hist object.
Args:
hist: Pmf.Hist object
name: string name for the data.
Returns:
Cdf object
"""
return MakeCdfFromItems(hist.Items(), name)
def MakeCdfFromPmf(pmf, name=None):
"""Makes a CDF from a Pmf object.
Args:
pmf: Pmf.Pmf object
name: string name for the data.
Returns:
Cdf object
"""
if name == None:
name = pmf.name
return MakeCdfFromItems(pmf.Items(), name)
def MakeCdfFromList(seq, name=''):
"""Creates a CDF from an unsorted sequence.
Args:
seq: unsorted sequence of sortable values
name: string name for the cdf
Returns:
Cdf object
"""
hist = MakeHistFromList(seq)
return MakeCdfFromHist(hist, name)
class UnimplementedMethodException(Exception):
"""Exception if someone calls a method that should be overridden."""
class Suite(Pmf):
"""Represents a suite of hypotheses and their probabilities."""
def Update(self, data):
"""Updates each hypothesis based on the data.
data: any representation of the data
returns: the normalizing constant
"""
for hypo in self.Values():
like = self.Likelihood(data, hypo)
self.Mult(hypo, like)
return self.Normalize()
def LogUpdate(self, data):
"""Updates a suite of hypotheses based on new data.
Modifies the suite directly; if you want to keep the original, make
a copy.
Note: unlike Update, LogUpdate does not normalize.
Args:
data: any representation of the data
"""
for hypo in self.Values():
like = self.LogLikelihood(data, hypo)
self.Incr(hypo, like)
def UpdateSet(self, dataset):
"""Updates each hypothesis based on the dataset.
This is more efficient than calling Update repeatedly because
it waits until the end to Normalize.
Modifies the suite directly; if you want to keep the original, make
a copy.
dataset: a sequence of data
returns: the normalizing constant
"""
for data in dataset:
for hypo in self.Values():
like = self.Likelihood(data, hypo)
self.Mult(hypo, like)
return self.Normalize()
def LogUpdateSet(self, dataset):
"""Updates each hypothesis based on the dataset.
Modifies the suite directly; if you want to keep the original, make
a copy.
dataset: a sequence of data
returns: None
"""
for data in dataset:
self.LogUpdate(data)
def Likelihood(self, data, hypo):
"""Computes the likelihood of the data under the hypothesis.
hypo: some representation of the hypothesis
data: some representation of the data
"""
raise UnimplementedMethodException()
def LogLikelihood(self, data, hypo):
"""Computes the log likelihood of the data under the hypothesis.
hypo: some representation of the hypothesis
data: some representation of the data
"""
raise UnimplementedMethodException()
def Print(self):
"""Prints the hypotheses and their probabilities."""
for hypo, prob in sorted(self.Items()):
print hypo, prob
def MakeOdds(self):
"""Transforms from probabilities to odds.
Values with prob=0 are removed.
"""
for hypo, prob in self.Items():
if prob:
self.Set(hypo, Odds(prob))
else:
self.Remove(hypo)
def MakeProbs(self):
"""Transforms from odds to probabilities."""
for hypo, odds in self.Items():
self.Set(hypo, Probability(odds))
def MakeSuiteFromList(t, name=''):
"""Makes a suite from an unsorted sequence of values.
Args:
t: sequence of numbers
name: string name for this suite
Returns:
Suite object
"""
hist = MakeHistFromList(t)
d = hist.GetDict()
return MakeSuiteFromDict(d)
def MakeSuiteFromHist(hist, name=None):
"""Makes a normalized suite from a Hist object.
Args:
hist: Hist object
name: string name
Returns:
Suite object
"""
if name is None:
name = hist.name
# make a copy of the dictionary
d = dict(hist.GetDict())
return MakeSuiteFromDict(d, name)
def MakeSuiteFromDict(d, name=''):
"""Makes a suite from a map from values to probabilities.
Args:
d: dictionary that maps values to probabilities
name: string name for this suite
Returns:
Suite object
"""
suite = Suite(name=name)
suite.SetDict(d)
suite.Normalize()
return suite
def MakeSuiteFromCdf(cdf, name=None):
"""Makes a normalized Suite from a Cdf object.
Args:
cdf: Cdf object
name: string name for the new Suite
Returns:
Suite object
"""
if name is None:
name = cdf.name
suite = Suite(name=name)
prev = 0.0
for val, prob in cdf.Items():
suite.Incr(val, prob - prev)
prev = prob
return suite
class Pdf(object):
"""Represents a probability density function (PDF)."""
def Density(self, x):
"""Evaluates this Pdf at x.
Returns: float probability density
"""
raise UnimplementedMethodException()
def MakePmf(self, xs, name=''):
"""Makes a discrete version of this Pdf, evaluated at xs.
xs: equally-spaced sequence of values
Returns: new Pmf
"""
pmf = Pmf(name=name)
for x in xs:
pmf.Set(x, self.Density(x))
pmf.Normalize()
return pmf
class GaussianPdf(Pdf):
"""Represents the PDF of a Gaussian distribution."""
def __init__(self, mu, sigma):
"""Constructs a Gaussian Pdf with given mu and sigma.
mu: mean
sigma: standard deviation
"""
self.mu = mu
self.sigma = sigma
def Density(self, x):
"""Evaluates this Pdf at x.
Returns: float probability density
"""
return EvalGaussianPdf(x, self.mu, self.sigma)
class EstimatedPdf(Pdf):
"""Represents a PDF estimated by KDE."""
def __init__(self, sample):
"""Estimates the density function based on a sample.
sample: sequence of data
"""
self.kde = scipy.stats.gaussian_kde(sample)
def Density(self, x):
"""Evaluates this Pdf at x.
Returns: float probability density
"""
return self.kde.evaluate(x)
def MakePmf(self, xs, name=''):
ps = self.kde.evaluate(xs)
pmf = MakePmfFromItems(zip(xs, ps), name=name)
return pmf
def Percentile(pmf, percentage):
"""Computes a percentile of a given Pmf.
percentage: float 0-100
"""
p = percentage / 100.0
total = 0
for val, prob in pmf.Items():
total += prob
if total >= p:
return val
def CredibleInterval(pmf, percentage=90):
"""Computes a credible interval for a given distribution.
If percentage=90, computes the 90% CI.
Args:
pmf: Pmf object representing a posterior distribution
percentage: float between 0 and 100
Returns:
sequence of two floats, low and high
"""
cdf = pmf.MakeCdf()
prob = (1 - percentage / 100.0) / 2
interval = cdf.Value(prob), cdf.Value(1 - prob)
return interval
def PmfProbLess(pmf1, pmf2):
"""Probability that a value from pmf1 is less than a value from pmf2.
Args:
pmf1: Pmf object
pmf2: Pmf object
Returns:
float probability
"""
total = 0.0
for v1, p1 in pmf1.Items():
for v2, p2 in pmf2.Items():
if v1 < v2:
total += p1 * p2
return total
def PmfProbGreater(pmf1, pmf2):
"""Probability that a value from pmf1 is less than a value from pmf2.
Args:
pmf1: Pmf object
pmf2: Pmf object
Returns:
float probability
"""
total = 0.0
for v1, p1 in pmf1.Items():
for v2, p2 in pmf2.Items():
if v1 > v2:
total += p1 * p2
return total
def PmfProbEqual(pmf1, pmf2):
"""Probability that a value from pmf1 equals a value from pmf2.
Args:
pmf1: Pmf object
pmf2: Pmf object
Returns:
float probability
"""
total = 0.0
for v1, p1 in pmf1.Items():
for v2, p2 in pmf2.Items():
if v1 == v2:
total += p1 * p2
return total
def RandomSum(dists):
"""Chooses a random value from each dist and returns the sum.
dists: sequence of Pmf or Cdf objects
returns: numerical sum
"""
total = sum(dist.Random() for dist in dists)
return total
def SampleSum(dists, n):
"""Draws a sample of sums from a list of distributions.
dists: sequence of Pmf or Cdf objects
n: sample size
returns: new Pmf of sums
"""
pmf = MakePmfFromList(RandomSum(dists) for i in xrange(n))
return pmf
def EvalGaussianPdf(x, mu, sigma):
"""Computes the unnormalized PDF of the normal distribution.
x: value
mu: mean
sigma: standard deviation
returns: float probability density
"""
return scipy.stats.norm.pdf(x, mu, sigma)
def MakeGaussianPmf(mu, sigma, num_sigmas, n=201):
"""Makes a PMF discrete approx to a Gaussian distribution.
mu: float mean
sigma: float standard deviation
num_sigmas: how many sigmas to extend in each direction
n: number of values in the Pmf
returns: normalized Pmf
"""
pmf = Pmf()
low = mu - num_sigmas * sigma
high = mu + num_sigmas * sigma
for x in numpy.linspace(low, high, n):
p = EvalGaussianPdf(x, mu, sigma)
pmf.Set(x, p)
pmf.Normalize()
return pmf
def EvalBinomialPmf(k, n, p):
"""Evaluates the binomial pmf.
Returns the probabily of k successes in n trials with probability p.
"""
return scipy.stats.binom.pmf(k, n, p)
def EvalPoissonPmf(k, lam):
"""Computes the Poisson PMF.
k: number of events
lam: parameter lambda in events per unit time
returns: float probability
"""
return scipy.stats.poisson.pmf(k, lam)
def MakePoissonPmf(lam, high, step=1):
"""Makes a PMF discrete approx to a Poisson distribution.
lam: parameter lambda in events per unit time
high: upper bound of the Pmf
returns: normalized Pmf
"""
pmf = Pmf()
for k in xrange(0, high + 1, step):
p = EvalPoissonPmf(k, lam)
pmf.Set(k, p)
pmf.Normalize()
return pmf
def EvalExponentialPdf(x, lam):
"""Computes the exponential PDF.
x: value
lam: parameter lambda in events per unit time
returns: float probability density
"""
return lam * math.exp(-lam * x)
def EvalExponentialCdf(x, lam):
"""Evaluates CDF of the exponential distribution with parameter lam."""
return 1 - math.exp(-lam * x)
def MakeExponentialPmf(lam, high, n=200):
"""Makes a PMF discrete approx to an exponential distribution.
lam: parameter lambda in events per unit time
high: upper bound
n: number of values in the Pmf
returns: normalized Pmf
"""
pmf = Pmf()
for x in numpy.linspace(0, high, n):
p = EvalExponentialPdf(x, lam)
pmf.Set(x, p)
pmf.Normalize()
return pmf
def StandardGaussianCdf(x):
"""Evaluates the CDF of the standard Gaussian distribution.
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution
#Cumulative_distribution_function
Args:
x: float
Returns:
float
"""
return (erf(x / ROOT2) + 1) / 2
def GaussianCdf(x, mu=0, sigma=1):
"""Evaluates the CDF of the gaussian distribution.
Args:
x: float
mu: mean parameter
sigma: standard deviation parameter
Returns:
float
"""
return StandardGaussianCdf(float(x - mu) / sigma)
def GaussianCdfInverse(p, mu=0, sigma=1):
"""Evaluates the inverse CDF of the gaussian distribution.
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution#Quantile_function
Args:
p: float
mu: mean parameter
sigma: standard deviation parameter
Returns:
float
"""
x = ROOT2 * erfinv(2 * p - 1)
return mu + x * sigma
class Beta(object):
"""Represents a Beta distribution.
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta_distribution
"""
def __init__(self, alpha=1, beta=1, name=''):
"""Initializes a Beta distribution."""
self.alpha = alpha
self.beta = beta
self.name = name
def Update(self, data):
"""Updates a Beta distribution.
data: pair of int (heads, tails)
"""
heads, tails = data
self.alpha += heads
self.beta += tails
def Mean(self):
"""Computes the mean of this distribution."""
return float(self.alpha) / (self.alpha + self.beta)
def Random(self):
"""Generates a random variate from this distribution."""
return random.betavariate(self.alpha, self.beta)
def Sample(self, n):
"""Generates a random sample from this distribution.
n: int sample size
"""
size = n,
return numpy.random.beta(self.alpha, self.beta, size)
def EvalPdf(self, x):
"""Evaluates the PDF at x."""
return x ** (self.alpha - 1) * (1 - x) ** (self.beta - 1)
def MakePmf(self, steps=101, name=''):
"""Returns a Pmf of this distribution.
Note: Normally, we just evaluate the PDF at a sequence
of points and treat the probability density as a probability
mass.
But if alpha or beta is less than one, we have to be
more careful because the PDF goes to infinity at x=0
and x=1. In that case we evaluate the CDF and compute
differences.
"""
if self.alpha < 1 or self.beta < 1:
cdf = self.MakeCdf()
pmf = cdf.MakePmf()
return pmf
xs = [i / (steps - 1.0) for i in xrange(steps)]
probs = [self.EvalPdf(x) for x in xs]
pmf = MakePmfFromDict(dict(zip(xs, probs)), name)
return pmf
def MakeCdf(self, steps=101):
"""Returns the CDF of this distribution."""
xs = [i / (steps - 1.0) for i in xrange(steps)]
ps = [scipy.special.betainc(self.alpha, self.beta, x) for x in xs]
cdf = Cdf(xs, ps)
return cdf
class Dirichlet(object):
"""Represents a Dirichlet distribution.
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirichlet_distribution
"""
def __init__(self, n, conc=1, name=''):
"""Initializes a Dirichlet distribution.
n: number of dimensions
conc: concentration parameter (smaller yields more concentration)
name: string name
"""
if n < 2:
raise ValueError('A Dirichlet distribution with '
'n<2 makes no sense')
self.n = n
self.params = numpy.ones(n, dtype=numpy.float) * conc
self.name = name
def Update(self, data):
"""Updates a Dirichlet distribution.
data: sequence of observations, in order corresponding to params
"""
m = len(data)
self.params[:m] += data
def Random(self):
"""Generates a random variate from this distribution.
Returns: normalized vector of fractions
"""
p = numpy.random.gamma(self.params)
return p / p.sum()
def Likelihood(self, data):
"""Computes the likelihood of the data.
Selects a random vector of probabilities from this distribution.
Returns: float probability
"""
m = len(data)
if self.n < m:
return 0
x = data
p = self.Random()
q = p[:m] ** x
return q.prod()
def LogLikelihood(self, data):
"""Computes the log likelihood of the data.
Selects a random vector of probabilities from this distribution.
Returns: float log probability
"""
m = len(data)
if self.n < m:
return float('-inf')
x = self.Random()
y = numpy.log(x[:m]) * data
return y.sum()
def MarginalBeta(self, i):
"""Computes the marginal distribution of the ith element.
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirichlet_distribution
#Marginal_distributions
i: int
Returns: Beta object
"""
alpha0 = self.params.sum()
alpha = self.params[i]
return Beta(alpha, alpha0 - alpha)
def PredictivePmf(self, xs, name=''):
"""Makes a predictive distribution.
xs: values to go into the Pmf
Returns: Pmf that maps from x to the mean prevalence of x
"""
alpha0 = self.params.sum()
ps = self.params / alpha0
return MakePmfFromItems(zip(xs, ps), name=name)
def BinomialCoef(n, k):
"""Compute the binomial coefficient "n choose k".
n: number of trials
k: number of successes
Returns: float
"""
return scipy.misc.comb(n, k)
def LogBinomialCoef(n, k):
"""Computes the log of the binomial coefficient.
http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/64716/
approximating-the-logarithm-of-the-binomial-coefficient
n: number of trials
k: number of successes
Returns: float
"""
return n * log(n) - k * log(k) - (n - k) * log(n - k)
2. 调用函数
//Charter2.py
#-*- coding: UTF-8 -*-
from thinkbayes import Pmf
pmf = Pmf()
pmf.Set('Bow1',0.5)
pmf.Set("Bow2",0.5)
pmf.Mult('Bow1',0.75)
pmf.Mult('Bow2',0.5)
#归一化处理
pmf.Normalize()
#输出概率
print pmf.Prob('Bow1')
效果如下:
2293
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