我们需要下一代游戏机吗

The game console is becoming obsolete. It’s a controversial statement, I know. But let’s step back from the truckload of hype surrounding the imminent launches of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X. Let’s explore this question more seriously: consoles have been around a long time. Where are they going, and are they becoming redundant?

吨 他的游戏控制台变得过时。 我知道这是一个有争议的声明。 但是，让我们从即将发布的PlayStation 5和Xbox Series X的大量宣传中退后一步。让我们更认真地探讨这个问题：控制台已经存在了很长时间。 他们要去哪里，并且变得多余了？

Many of us won’t forget the wonderful moment we acquired our first game console. Whether it was sitting nestled under a Christmas tree, or whether you were old enough to purchase it from a store yourself, few things in life can compare to that moment when you first unbox your brand new machine. It wasn’t just about accessing the games; it was about the ritual of unboxing the thing, plugging it in, and firing it up for the first time.

我们许多人不会忘记获得第一个游戏机的美好时光。 无论是坐在圣诞树下，还是年纪大到可以自己从商店购买的东西，生活中几乎没有什么比第一次拆箱时更容易 。 这不仅仅是访问游戏； 这是关于拆箱，插入并首次启动的仪式 。

But times are changing. People’s needs and desires are shifting. In particular, free time is becoming more and more limited by the day. Technology is responding to our shifting habits, too, in an effort to better fit in with our daily routines. It’s worth remembering that way back in the ’90s and ’00s, most gaming experiences were delivered either through a dedicated console or a PC. Sure, you could also pick up a Game Boy — but it could never match a home console experience in terms of fidelity. The full fat experience always demanded that you plonk yourself down in front of a TV or monitor for a period of time.

但是时代在变。 人们的需求和欲望正在发生变化。 特别是，空闲时间越来越受一天的限制。 技术也在响应我们不断变化的习惯，以更好地适应我们的日常工作。 值得记住的是，上世纪90年代和90年代，大多数游戏体验都是通过专用控制台或PC交付的。 当然，您也可以选择一个Game Boy，但就保真度而言，它永远无法与家庭控制台体验匹敌。 饱满的脂肪体验总是要求您在电视或显示器前摇晃一段时间。

But technology marched forward. Smart phones drove a lot of the change. And it can be argued that smart phones, as a product category, represented the single-largest expansion of the gaming market since its inception. In fact, smart phones account for more than 45% of the video game market share. And if that number doesn’t surprise you, consider that at least one-third of the entire world’s population has played or downloaded a game on a mobile device of some kind.

但是技术向前发展。 智能手机推动了很多变化。 可以说，自产品问世以来，智能手机作为一种产品类别代表了游戏市场的最大单次扩展。 实际上，智能手机占视频游戏市场份额的45％以上。 如果您不感到意外，那么请考虑至少全世界三分之一的人口已经在某种移动设备上玩过游戏或下载了游戏 。

Of course, dedicated game consoles are still highly poopular. The PlayStation 4 is one of the highest-selling consoles of all time. But the trends aren’t in favour of consoles. According to the Entertainment Software Association’s (ESA) recent survey “2020 Essential Facts About The Video Game Industry”, women of all age groups and men aged between 55 and 64 prefer to play games on their phone. Consoles seemed to be the gaming medium of choice for men aged 18–54. Sure, it’s still a sizeable demographic, but the stats speak to a far broader market that increasingly prefers to experience games in different contexts.

当然，专用游戏机仍然非常受欢迎。 PlayStation 4是有史以来最畅销的游戏机之一。 但是趋势并不支持游戏机。 根据娱乐软件协会(ESA)最近的调查“关于视频游戏行业的2020年基本事实” ，所有年龄段的女性和55至64岁之间的男性都喜欢在手机上玩游戏。 控制台似乎是18-54岁男性的首选游戏媒体。 当然，这仍然是一个可观的人口统计数据，但统计数据表明，这个市场涉及的范围更广，越来越喜欢在不同背景下体验游戏。

There are other data points that are relevant here. For example, there’s this chart from the Statista Research Department from 2016. It shows that according to data gathered from video game companies around the world, only 29% of their customers prefer to play on console. This compares to a whopping 76% who play on mobile devices.

这里还有其他相关的数据点。 例如， Statista研究部提供了2016年的图表。根据全球视频游戏公司收集的数据，只有29％的客户喜欢在游戏机上玩游戏。 相比之下，在移动设备上玩游戏的比例高达76％。

These numbers should surprise exactly no one. Mobile devices have increasingly become a necessity in the modern world — not the luxury they once were. They offer the broadest possible range of functionality, having subsumed a range of devices or products over time (from everything to physical calendars and diaries to dedicated music players). Consoles, despite offering additional entertainment options (like Netflix and YouTube), still remain a largely gaming-exclusive affair. In addition, smart phone technology is rapidly advancing year-on-year; so much so that the latest smart phones are now able to compete with — and sometimes even surpass — the most advanced dedicated handheld gaming machines. From a raw game fidelity standpoint, smart phones are already starting to shadow what we see on home consoles. The gap will only grow smaller in the coming years.

这些数字绝对不会让人感到惊讶。 移动设备已越来越成为现代世界中的必需品，而不是过去的奢侈品。 它们提供了尽可能广泛的功能，并且随着时间的推移包含了各种设备或产品(从所有内容到物理日历，日记，再到专用音乐播放器)。 尽管提供了其他娱乐选择(例如Netflix和YouTube)，游戏机仍然在很大程度上是游戏独有的。 此外，智能电话技术正以逐年快速的速度发展。 如此之多，以至于最新的智能手机现在可以与(甚至有时甚至超过)最先进的专用手持游戏机竞争。 从游戏保真度的角度来看，智能手机已经开始掩盖我们在家用游戏机上看到的东西。 差距在未来几年只会越来越小。

PlayStation 5 DualSense controller. Source: Sony.

PlayStation 5 DualSense控制器。 资料来源：索尼。

And as the technological gap shrinks, developer opportunities expand. Sure, many popular smart phone games are more akin to Candy Crush or Angry Birds. They are, by definition, super-quick pick-up-and-play experiences that can be enjoyed for only a few minutes at a time. But we’re seeing more and more examples of larger, deeper, richer game experiences arriving on mobile devices as well. It’s not inconceivable that we’ll soon see the latest triple-A experiences from Naughty Dog, CD Projekt Red, or Rockstar launching on certain mobile devices as well as console and PC.

随着技术差距的缩小，开发人员的机会也在扩大。 当然，许多流行的智能手机游戏更类似于《 Candy Crush》或《 Angry Birds》 。 从定义上讲，它们是一次仅需几分钟即可享受的超快速接送体验。 但是我们也看到越来越多的更大，更深，更丰富的游戏体验也出现在移动设备上的例子。 很快我们就会看到Naughty Dog，CD Projekt Red或Rockstar在某些移动设备以及控制台和PC上发布的最新3A体验，这并非不可想象。

The existence of the Nintendo Switch is a good example of what this could look like. More and more developers are porting the latest games to the platform, albeit with some limitations. There is also the emergence of services like Google Stadia and Microsoft’s xCloud, which promise to completely circumvent the hardware limitations by directly streaming ultra high fidelity experiences to even the smallest mobile devices.

Nintendo Switch的存在就是一个很好的例子。 尽管有一些限制，但越来越多的开发人员正在将最新游戏移植到该平台上。 还出现了诸如Google Stadia和Microsoft的xCloud之类的服务，它们有望通过将超高保真度体验直接流式传输到最小的移动设备上，从而完全规避硬件限制。

The big question seems to be whether or not all of these advancements and market trends are sending us hurtling towards a post-console future. Will the mere idea of a dedicated box sitting under the TV become a thing of the past? Will it become so easy to experience games in a more ubiquitous way (on potentially any screen), that the focus will shift to games and services and entirely away from dedicated boxes?

最大的问题似乎是所有这些进步和市场趋势是否正在使我们步入后控制台时代。 将专用盒子放在电视下面的想法会成为过去吗？ 以更普遍的方式(可能在任何屏幕上)体验游戏变得如此容易，以致焦点将转移到游戏和服务上，而完全脱离专用盒子吗？

Microsoft already seem to have a clear view on this, given their approach to a more iterative upgrade cycle for the Xbox (consider the Xbox One X, Xbox Series S, and Xbox Series X), as well as the increasingly-rapid move towards an Xbox “ecosystem” rather than a single, dedicated piece of hardware. If Google Stadia is on one end of the spectrum, then PS5 and Switch are on the opposite end, with Microsoft having a bet both ways somewhere in the middle.

考虑到他们对Xbox进行更迭代的升级周期的方法(考虑Xbox One X，Xbox Series S和Xbox Series X)，以及朝着越来越快的方向发展，微软似乎已经对此有了清晰的认识。 Xbox是“生态系统”，而不是单个专用硬件。 如果Google Stadia处于竞争的一端，那么PS5和Switch则处于另一端，而Microsoft则将赌注押在中间位置。

Whatever happens, the next few years are going to be fascinating. If we revisit this topic in five years’ time, we may find ourselves looking at a completely different gaming landscape.

无论发生什么，未来几年都会令人着迷。 如果我们在五年后重新审视此主题，我们可能会发现自己正在寻找完全不同的游戏环境。

翻译自: https://medium.com/super-jump/do-we-need-next-gen-consoles-677b7c86ffaf