特斯拉电池细节
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In the midst of a pandemic-led slump for the global auto industry, shares of the world’s carmakers are down — except for Tesla’s, whose stock has quintupled, including 74% last month alone. Even after a 34% plunge in its share price this week, Tesla’s price-earnings ratio is still at an orbital 948. Which is to say that the electric vehicle industry is superlatively hot, and Musk is the gasoline.
在全球汽车业大流行导致的低迷之中，全球汽车制造商的股票均在下跌，除了特斯拉的股票上涨了五倍，其中包括上个月的74％。 即使在本周股价暴跌34％之后，特斯拉的市盈率仍处于948的轨道上。这意味着电动汽车行业非常火热，而麝香是汽油。
Over the next three to five years, the world’s major automakers will debut scores of new electric SUVs, pickups, and sedans. Among a slew of high-dollar deals involving EV startups, GM said Monday that it will take a $2 billion, 11% stake in Nikola, an EV unicorn competing with Tesla’s future Cybertruck and Semi. And last week, VW-backed QuantumScape, an EV battery startup, said it will go public in a $4.3 billion reverse merger with Kensington Capital, a listed shell company. The share prices of all four companies — GM, Nikola, VW, and Kensington — surged in response.
在未来三到五年是啊[R S，世界各大汽车制造商都将亮相新的电动越野车，皮卡，轿车和分数。 通用汽车周一表示，在涉及电动汽车初创公司的一系列高额交易中，它将以20亿美元的价格收购尼古拉11％的股份。尼古拉是与特斯拉未来的Cybertruck和Semi竞争的电动汽车独角兽。 上周， 大众支持的电动汽车电池初创公司QuantumScape表示 ，将与上市空壳公司肯辛顿资本(Kensington Capital)进行43亿美元的反向合并。 通用，尼古拉，大众和肯辛顿这四家公司的股价均上涨。
The result has been obsessive speculation on Wall Street and among EV and battery nerds as to what he will say, including a forecast that he intends to create a business feeding the electric grid.
结果导致华尔街，电动汽车和电池狂热者对他的言论进行了过多的猜测，包括对他打算建立一家为电网供电的企业的预测。
The incitement to all this activity, beyond pure and primordial desire to get in on a presumed coming electric vehicle boom, is a cold fear of being overtaken by an iPhone moment — a runaway Tesla sales craze that leaves everyone else a wannabe.
对所有这些活动的煽动，超出了纯粹和原始的希望进入即将到来的电动汽车热潮的渴望，是对被iPhone时刻赶超的冷漠恐惧-失控的特斯拉销售热潮使其他所有人都想去。
Musk knows how to seize on that anxiety. On September 22, he will appear in a live webcast for Tesla “Battery Day,” a first-time-ever promotional event linked to the company’s annual shareholder’s meeting at its Fremont, California, factory. Batteries do not ordinarily excite mass anticipation, but Musk has teased that what he will reveal will “blow your mind.” The result has been obsessive speculation on Wall Street and among EV and battery nerds as to what he will say, including a forecast that he intends to create a business feeding the electric grid and another that he will start selling his batteries and power train to competitors. Musk’s Twitter feed has made things more fraught, with vague comments that followers have treated as a suggestive trail of crumbs to be followed.
马斯克知道如何抓住这种焦虑。 9月22日，他将出现在特斯拉“ 电池日 ”的现场网络广播中，这是有史以来第一次促销活动，与公司在加利福尼亚州弗里蒙特的工厂的年度股东大会相关。 电池通常不会激发大众的期待，但是马斯克嘲笑他将揭示的内容将“ 打动你的头脑” 。 结果导致华尔街以及电动汽车和电池狂热者对他所说的话产生了强烈的猜测 ，包括预测他打算创建一家为电网供电的企业，另一预测是他将开始向竞争对手出售电池和动力传动系统。 。 马斯克(Musk)的Twitter提要使事情变得更加烦躁不安，模糊的评论认为，追随者已被视为暗示要遵循的碎屑。
But if one sticks with Musk’s actual declarative sentences — that what he says will “blow your mind” — there is only one message to be gleaned: that he intends to make a dramatic assertion that the newest Teslas will achieve cost parity with similar combustion vehicles. That is, Tesla buyers will no longer pay a large premium over gasoline-driven models with more or less the same features. If that is Musk’s headline announcement — and he provides validating data that passes muster with experts — he may rattle the whole of the auto industry.
但是，如果有人坚持马斯克的实际声明式句子(他说的话会“打动你的头脑”)，那么只有一条信息可以收集：他打算做出一个戏剧性的断言，即最新的特斯拉将与同类燃烧汽车实现成本平价。 也就是说，特斯拉的购车者将不再为具有或多或少相同功能的汽油驱动车型支付高额费用。 如果说 是马斯克的头条新闻-他提供的验证数据可以通过专家的采访-他可能会扰乱整个汽车行业。
“We are at the point where carmakers are just about catching up to where Tesla is now. And now Tesla will move ahead again, and they will need another three to five years to catch up,” says James Frith, head of energy storage at BloombergNEF, a renewable energy research group. It would be almost as though Musk were rendering rival electric vehicles obsolete just as their makers are getting started.
“我们正处在汽车制造商即将赶上特斯拉现在的位置的时候。 现在，特斯拉将再次前进，他们还需要三到五年的时间才能赶上来。”可再生能源研究组织彭博社(BloombergNEF)储能主管詹姆斯·弗里斯(James Frith)说。 就像马斯克在制造商起步之时，马斯克正在淘汰竞争对手的电动车。
In the first electric car age, from the 1890s through the first two decades of the 1900s, many motorists preferred them to steam and gasoline: You did not have to crank-start the engine, change gears, tolerate ghastly smells, nor endure a constant, loud roar. But when roads became better, gasoline cheaper, and motorists’ desire for distance greater, combustion overtook electrics. In the 1910s, Thomas Edison and Henry Ford, working together, made a go of electrics, but even they could not pull it off. In a bizarre episode several decades later, in the 1990s, GM briefly resurrected electric cars with its EV1. But, in a story recounted in the feature-length film Who Killed the Electric Car? it ultimately ended up inexplicably retrieving and destroying all the vehicles it produced and dropping the idea.
在从1890年代到1900年代的前二十年的第一个电动汽车时代，许多驾车人偏爱蒸汽和汽油：您不必起动发动机，换档，忍受难闻的气味，也不必持续不断，吼声很高。 但是，当道路变得更好，汽油更便宜，驾驶者对距离的渴望更大时，燃烧就超过了电子设备。 在1910年代，托马斯·爱迪生(Thomas Edison)和亨利·福特(Henry Ford)一起工作， 制造了电器，但即使他们也无法实现。 几十年后的1990年，通用汽车在一次怪异事件中，以EV1短暂复活了电动汽车。 但是，在长篇电影《 谁杀死了电动车》中讲述了一个故事。 最终，它最终莫名其妙地取回并摧毁了它生产的所有车辆，并放弃了这个想法。
The new electric age was born just a few years later. In 2004, Musk invested $6.5 million in an early, three-man startup that its founders called Tesla Motors. By 2009, Musk was running the company, and it had produced a souped-up electric car called the Roadster. The car — ultra-cool, quiet, and fast — sold for $109,000 without any fancy upgrades. Musk sold 2,450 of them, initiating the mystique that he has ridden until today.
新的电气时代在几年后诞生。 2004年，马斯克向一家三人创业的早期公司投资了650万美元，该公司的创始人称之为特斯拉汽车公司。 到2009年，马斯克开始经营这家公司，并生产了一款名为Roadster的电动汽车。 该车超酷，安静，快速，售价为109,000美元，未进行任何高级升级。 马斯克售出了2,450辆，开始了他直到今天骑行的神秘感。
But always at the core of Tesla vehicles — the secret to its success — was the battery. J.B. Straubel, an EV fanatic and Musk’s first hire at Tesla, had a killer insight, as noted in Elon Musk, Ashlee Vance’s biography of the entrepreneur: You did not need to invent a new lithium-ion battery suitable for EVs. Instead, you could assemble a pack of off-the-shelf, cylindrical cells — lithium-ion batteries a bit larger than AAs and known as 18650s — would do just fine. You would thus save millions of dollars of research and development money associated with invention and could spend a far smaller sum on inventing a management system to prevent them from overheating and exploding.
但是，特斯拉汽车的核心始终是电池，这是其成功的秘诀。 正如电动车迷JB Straubel和马斯克在特斯拉的第一批雇员一样，阿什莉·万斯(Ashlee Vance)的企业家传记埃隆·马斯克 ( Elon Musk)指出，JB Straubel具有杀手insight的洞察力：您不需要发明一款适用于电动汽车的新型锂离子电池。 取而代之的是，您可以组装一堆现成的圆柱形电池(比AA大一点的锂离子电池，称为18650s)就可以了。 这样，您将节省与发明相关的数百万美元的研发费用，并且可以花更少的钱来发明一种管理系统，以防止它们过热和爆炸。
Ultimately, Straubel’s team packed some 6,800 individual 18650s into the Roadster, and every Tesla since has had a similar system. Over the subsequent years, though, no other automaker has bought into the strategy. All have bought or invested in custom batteries shaped into pouches. This distinction is how — whether he announces it this month or later — Musk is reaching cost parity with combustion before anyone else.
最终，Straubel的团队将大约6,800辆18650单独的东西装进了Roadster，自那时以来，每个特斯拉都有类似的系统。 然而，在随后的几年中，没有其他汽车制造商加入该战略。 所有人都购买或投资了定制成小袋的定制电池。 无论是在本月还是之后宣布，这种区别都是如何体现的：马斯克在燃烧之前的成本与其他任何人都一样。
Since the Roadster, electric vehicles have been largely targeted at a niche market — the green- and cool-minded. A major reason has been the cost of the battery, which can soar to half the total price of the car.
自Roadster以来，电动汽车就主要瞄准了利基市场-绿色环保和思想冷静。 一个主要的原因是电池的成本，它可以飙升到汽车总价的一半。
Making electrics affordable has been so important that, in the Obama administration, it became government policy. In 2009, President Barack Obama’s Department of Energy fixated on electric cars and lithium-ion batteries as the vanguard of new industries that could carry the U.S. out of the depths of the Great Recession. So it was that the two industries were allocated $2.4 billion of federal stimulus spending voted by Congress after the financial crash. Of the money, a $465 million loan went to Tesla to create the Model S, the flagship electric that the company built after the Roadster.
使电子产品的价格变得非常重要，以至于在奥巴马政府中成为政府的政策。 2009年，美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)的能源部将电动汽车和锂离子电池视为新兴产业的先锋，这可能使美国走出大萧条的深渊。 因此，这两个行业获得了金融危机后国会投票通过的24亿美元联邦刺激支出。 在这笔资金中，4.65亿美元贷给了特斯拉以生产Model S，这是该公司继Roadster之后制造的旗舰电动产品。
Tesla’s path to $100 kWh appears to be the sum of a handful of small money-savers.
特斯拉达到100美元/千瓦时的道路似乎是少数几个省钱的总和。
But it was the battery, and not the vehicle itself, that was key to bringing down the cost. At the time, battery costs were $1,200 kWh and more, an order of magnitude higher than the presumed crossover point with combustion vehicles of $100 per kWh. The Department of Energy began to fund battery research with the explicit goal of reaching $100/kWh.
但是降低电池成本的关键是电池，而不是车辆本身。 当时，电池成本为1200美元/千瓦时甚至更高，比假定的交叉点高出一个数量级，燃烧车辆为100美元/千瓦时。 能源部开始为电池研究提供资金，其明确目标是达到$ 100 / kWh。
Even a few years ago, battery experts treated the goal as preposterous. The central reason was that battery advances do not arrive on the same invention scale as transistors, whose performance doubles every 18 months or two years. Battery efficiency improves by an average of just 7% to 8% every year.
即使在几年前，电池专家也把这个目标视为荒谬的。 中心原因是电池的发展没有达到晶体管的发明规模，晶体管的性能每18个月或两年增加一倍。 电池效率每年平均仅提高7％至8％。
Yet, after a decade, that incremental annual progress has put the field within striking distance of the $100/kWh inflection point. Frith, the BloombergNEF analyst, said the current industry average battery pack cost is at $130 kWh. If Musk in fact does have an announcement about cost parity in mind, the question is how does he get another 30% of savings out of the battery?
然而，在十年之后，这种逐年递增的进展使该领域处于$ 100 / kWh拐点的惊人距离之内。 BloombergNEF分析师Frith表示，当前行业平均电池组成本为$ 130 kWh。 如果马斯克实际上确实有一个关于成本平价的公告，那么问题是他如何从电池中再节省30％？
Tesla’s path to $100/kWh appears to be the sum of a handful of small money-savers. In May, the company filed for a patent for a battery design that omits small pieces of metal, called “tabs,” that connect the battery ultimately to the power train. The Tesla design replaces one or both of the tabs with a bump or a ridge, cutting costs and increasing the cell’s chemical efficiency. Arcane, right? Not if you ask Musk. In a tweet in May, Musk said this advance is “way more important than it sounds.”
T esla达到$ 100 / kWh的道路似乎是少数几个省钱的总和。 今年5月，该公司为电池设计申请了专利 ，该电池设计省略了称为“接线片”的小金属片，这些小金属片最终将电池连接到动力总成。 特斯拉(Tesla)设计用凸块或凸脊代替其中一个或两个凸耳，从而削减了成本并提高了电池的化学效率。 奥术吧？ 如果您问麝香，那不是。 马斯克在5月的一条推文中说，这一进展“远比听起来重要。”
Then, last year, Tesla made two important acquisitions. First he bought a San Diego company called Maxwell, which had pioneered a new battery manufacturing process that reduced the space required for equipment and increased energy density. Then Tesla bought Hibar, a Canadian company that had automated battery production. The larger picture is that the biggest bottleneck in Tesla’s growth, according to Musk, has been that he can’t buy batteries fast enough. He had been relying on a single maker — Panasonic. Then he broadened out and started buying from South Korea’s LG and China’s CATL, the country’s largest lithium-ion battery producer. But they turned out not to be enough either. Now, Musk will start to produce his own cells in automated factories.
然后，去年，特斯拉进行了两项重要的收购。 首先，他收购了圣地亚哥的一家名为Maxwell的公司，该公司开创了一种新的电池制造Craft.io，该Craft.io可以减少设备所需的空间并提高能量密度。 然后， 特斯拉收购了拥有自动电池生产能力的加拿大公司Hibar 。 更大的局面是，根据马斯克的说法，特斯拉增长的最大瓶颈在于他无法足够快地购买电池。 他一直依靠单一制造商Panasonic。 然后他扩大了业务范围，并开始从韩国的LG和中国最大的锂离子电池生产商中国的CATL购买。 但事实证明，这也不足够。 现在，马斯克将开始在自动化工厂中生产自己的电池。
Last year, the company filed for a patent on a battery that will last a million miles in an electric car, enough for the average driver to keep going for 76 years.
去年，该公司申请了一种电池专利，该电池在电动汽车中可行驶一百万英里，足以使普通驾驶员持续行驶76年。
In 2016, Musk invented the word “gigafactory” for the huge battery plant he built near Reno to supply Tesla. Now he is talking about a “terafactory,” a plant that can produce at 20 times the scale of the gigafactory. The Maxwell and Hibar technologies mean he can do that without requiring a massive increase in space while also producing batteries faster with far higher density. He calls this turn to the terafactory “Roadrunner.” In a January call with analysts, he said that going big is the only way to get the magnitude of cost savings he needs. “We’ve got to scale battery production to crazy levels that people cannot even fathom today,” he said.
2016年，马斯克为其在里诺附近建造的巨型电池工厂发明了“超级工厂”一词，以为特斯拉供电。 现在，他正在谈论一种“工厂”，即一种工厂，其产量可以达到工厂规模的20倍。 Maxwell和Hibar技术意味着他可以做到这一点，而无需大量增加空间，同时还可以更快地生产密度更高的电池。 他称此转弯为工厂“ Roadrunner”。 他在一月份与分析师的电话会议中说 ，扩大规模是获得他所需要的成本节省幅度的唯一途径。 他说：“我们必须将电池的生产规模扩大到如今人们甚至无法理解的疯狂水平。”
In China, CATLsays it can already produce an $80 kWh battery at the pack level, Reuters has reported, a system developed with Tesla. But it did so with a relatively low-energy battery chemistry called lithium iron phosphate, or LFP. LFP has no cobalt, making it relatively cheap and long-lasting, but it also can’t take the car very far before it requires a recharge. That makes the battery suitable for China’s electric urban taxis but not for far more demanding American drivers. They may not buy an electric unless it can go at least 300 miles on a charge and probably further. The terafactories, outfitted with automated, streamlined equipment, will turn out the higher density batteries that go into Western-sold electrics.
路透社报道说 ，在特斯拉开发的系统中，CATL说它已经可以在中国生产每包80美元的电池。 但这是通过一种相对低能耗的电池化学物质磷酸铁锂(LFP)实现的。 LFP没有钴，因此相对便宜且使用寿命长，但是在需要充电之前，它也不能走很远。 这使得该电池适用于中国的城市出租车，但不适用于要求更高的美国驾驶员。 他们可能不会购买电，除非它可以充电至少300英里甚至更多。 这些工厂配备了自动化的，精简的设备，将成为西方销售的电子产品中密度更高的电池。
Over the last year, Musk has gone a dizzying number of directions with his batteries. Last year, the company filed for a patent on a battery that will last a million miles in an electric car, enough for the average driver to keep going for 76 years. Why would anyone want a car with that kind of capability? The best answer is that when you add up Musk’s various moves in the electric vehicle space, you get an intention not only to challenge his rivals but to make combustion socially obsolete. That is, he wants every motorist on the planet to believe they have to get rid of their current gasoline-driven vehicle and go electric. And not because they desire to save the planet, because such individuals are relatively few, but for economic or safety reasons.
Ø版本的最后一年，马斯克已经方向令人眼花缭乱的数字和他的电池。 去年，该公司申请了一种电池专利 ，该电池在电动汽车中可行驶一百万英里，足以使普通驾驶员持续行驶76年。 为什么有人想要一辆具有这种能力的汽车？ 最好的答案是，当您将马斯克在电动汽车领域的各种动作加在一起时，您不仅有意图挑战他的对手，而且有使燃烧在社会上过时的意图。 也就是说，他希望地球上的每个驾车者都相信他们必须摆脱目前的汽油驱动汽车并转为电动汽车。 不是因为他们渴望拯救地球，而是因为经济或安全原因，因为这样的人相对较少，因此他们并非要拯救地球。
Musk is attempting to get there by making people agnostic as to what they will buy: If I no longer must choose a combustion vehicle because I can’t afford an electric, there is a higher chance I will go electric. But more importantly, the aim is to create a stigma about cars that cannot last a million miles, whose value may drop because the mechanics can’t take them that distance. “He wants you to think of the internal combustion engine like an expensive horse,” said Venkat Viswanathan, a professor at Carnegie Mellon.
马斯克正试图通过使人们对他们将要购买的东西不了解来尝试到达那里：如果我不再买不起燃烧的汽车，因为我买不起电，那么我有更大的机会去买电。 但更重要的是，其目的是对不能持续一百万英里的汽车造成一种污名，其价值可能会下降，因为机械师无法将它们拉远。 卡内基·梅隆大学教授Venkat Viswanathan表示：“他希望您将内燃机看作是一匹昂贵的马。”
On Wall Street, analysts are convinced that what Musk will announce on Battery Day will be a new, stand-alone business. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas thinks Musk plans to begin selling his proprietary batteries and power trains to other carmakers. Wedbush’s Dan Ives thinks similarly: “Not initially, but that’s the goal,” he told me. But this seems highly unlikely. Musk is scrambling to get his hands on every battery he can. “Selling a great battery to a competitor sounds quite good. ‘Wow, he is a pioneer who is not interested only in money,’” said Sun-Ho Kang, a vice president at Wildcat Discovery, a battery company. “But will he actually do it? I doubt it. I don’t think he has the supplies to sell to other people.”
在华尔街，分析人士坚信，马斯克在电池节上宣布的将是一项新的独立业务。 摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的亚当·乔纳斯(Adam Jonas)认为，马斯克计划开始将其专有的电池和动力传动系出售给其他汽车制造商。 Wedbush的Dan Ives也有类似的想法：“起初不是，但这是目标，”他告诉我。 但这似乎不太可能。 马斯克争先恐后地尽力而为。 “向竞争对手出售出色的电池听起来不错。 电池公司Wildcat Discovery副总裁Kang-Ho Kang表示：“哇，他是一位先锋，他不仅对金钱感兴趣。” “但是他真的会这样做吗？ 我对此表示怀疑。 我认为他没有卖给他人的物资。”
From the start, Musk’s goal has been to jumpstart the creation of a global electric vehicle industry. The rationale, he has explained, is to reduce fossil fuel emissions and help solve climate change. Cheaper batteries are a path to cheaper cars and for electrics to go mass market. Musk is attempting to reach his goal by getting Tesla there. As to the competition, it’s every automaker for itself.
从一开始，马斯克的目标就是Swift启动全球电动汽车产业的创建。 他解释说，这样做的理由是减少化石燃料的排放并帮助解决气候变化。 廉价电池是通向廉价汽车和电动汽车进入大众市场的途径。 马斯克正试图通过将特斯拉拉到那里来实现自己的目标。 至于竞争，这是每个汽车制造商本身的事情。
翻译自: https://marker.medium.com/why-teslas-battery-day-will-actually-live-up-to-the-hype-f10b4c74dc9b
特斯拉电池细节
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