用的是arma(3,3)-egarch(1,1)模型,结果如下:
Presample variance: backcast (parameter = 0.7)
LOG(GARCH) = C(8) + C(9)*ABS(RESID(-1)/@SQRT(GARCH(-1))) + C(10)
*RESID(-1)/@SQRT(GARCH(-1)) + C(11)*LOG(GARCH(-1))
Variable Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob.
C 0.091784 0.031671 2.898059 0.0038
AR(1) -0.020128 0.088556 -0.227293 0.8202
AR(2) 0.017574 0.078857 0.222856 0.8236
AR(3) -0.847414 0.072570 -11.67717 0.0000
MA(1) 0.007875 0.087030 0.090488 0.9279
MA(2) 0.025499 0.077761 0.327913 0.7430
MA(3) 0.865214 0.075611 11.44290 0.0000
Variance Equation
C(8) -0.104767 0.009260