Common Sense: Have We Hit Bottom?

最近，不论我到哪里，人们都会把同一个问题抛给我：市场什么时候见底？一般来说，发问者的语调若不是极度沮丧，就是非常焦虑。这个问题让我恨不能很快遁形。我的回答很简单：“我不知道。”我的一贯做法是不去预测市场的短期走向。我这么做是有理由的：过去已尽人皆知，未来则无人知晓。既然这种说法不能令提问者感到满意，那么就让我来解释一下。首先，市场确有可能已经见底了。周一时，道指标准普尔500指数收盘都跌到了12年低点。纳斯达克综合指数则可能去年11月就已经触底反弹了。无庸置疑，如果市场已经触底，那你大可以放轻松些，不必再为它茶饭不思了。你是不会现在就将股票脱手的。我们的常识是低买高卖，你是不会在股票创新低时卖出，或在股票创新高时买进的。只要坚守这一简单原则，你就永远不会在市场低谷时抛售，在高峰时吸纳。但是让我们假设市场还没见底，将继续下行。假设你现在对这一点很是肯定，那你是不是打算现在就把股票都抛了？如果你这么做，你可以用这些收益买一些安全的投资产品，比如说短期美国国债或货币市场基金；前者的收益率几乎是零，后者的收益率仅仅为1%。你接下来就可以等待市场进一步走低了。然后又怎样呢？把你此前卖出的股票再买回来？还是等等看股市会不会进一步走低？这个问题的关键在于，在每一个转折点，人们对未来都一无所知，这和从前重要时刻降临时前人们的茫然毫无二致。如果你是个长线投资者希望能从现在的抛售中盈利，那你就需要非常仔细地评估何时买进。如果你不是个长线投资者，那你压根儿就不该在股市里扑腾。换言之，对于那些没人能肯定知道的事情你必须得看得准，而且要看对两次。如果你愿意，大可遵照这一策略，不过，你可别觉得这种事情是扔骰子──两次里总有一次是对的。当然，如果你相信市场再也不会有起色道指永远不会攀上8000点，那你就把股票抛了吧。这要求你彻底地灰心丧气，不光是对股市，对整个人类的生产能力都再也不报希望。我猜那该和黑暗世纪(Dark Ages)有一拼了吧，不过，鉴于那时没有经济统计更没有什么股市，人们也很难知道那几百年中人类到底取得了多大进步。相比之下，自从有纪录以来，股市的回报就好于所有其他的投资品种。无论是在股票市值蒸发了将近90%的大萧条时期，还是跌幅高达50%的今天，股市的表现都优于其他。很长时间以来我一直在兜售这样一个策略，那就是在股票大跌的时候买进，在大涨的时候卖出，这么做的前提是股市分别处于周期性的超卖及超买期。既然股票价格反应的是企业未来盈利情况的预期，而未来的事情谁都说不准，那么这样的预测就永远不可能百分之百正确，这也给投资者带来了周期性的机会。考虑到股票过一段时间总会上涨，现在对大多数投资者来说最大的风险是过多地将资金配置到现金资产中，以致于错过转瞬即逝的股票上涨行情。考虑到当前经济以及市场的前景确实一片黯淡，我认为尤其要注意在股票市场投资不足的风险。根据常识，即便近期股市大跌，我们还没有靠近下一个买进关口（即纳斯达克指数报1300点）。但如果你在这个超长的经济低迷期已经开始获取投资回报了（这说明你要么很聪明，要么很幸运，要么二者兼备），那么你总需要在将来某个时段再度入市。在我看来，现在没有理由选择按兵不动，只要你愿意为长期收益而在短期内冒一些风险。这一策略和眼下的全球经济银行系统稳健程度房地产价格以及企业盈利情况没有丝毫关系。但这么说吧，我确实看到基本面因素有了一些好转，其中应该特别指出的是，金融市场的流动性有所增强包括垃圾级债券在内的企业债市场出现升温，以及一些大宗商品的价格走势坚挺。人们可能会为细节问题争论不休，但大型经济刺激计划，银行及金融系统的综合解决方案为应对房产止赎潮而采取的明智措施以及迎战汽车行业现状的明显意愿都给我留下了深刻印象，因为它们都是华盛顿为化解危机而采取的重要而积极的措施。正像我在本文开头提到的，我说这么多只是为了给我那个简短的回答加一个注解。我不知道市场什么时候能触底反弹。但不论是本周今年，还是明年，我都确信这一天肯定会到来。James B. Stewart相关阅读恐慌情绪促使投资者增持实物黄金 2009-02-25失业率飙升不见得经济已触底 2009-02-06


Everywhere I go lately, I've been pummeled with the same question: 'When will the market bottom?' It's usually asked in a tone of high anxiety, if not desperation.It's almost enough to send me into hibernation. The short answer is, 'I don't know.'I have always steadfastly refused to predict where markets are headed in the short term. My premise is that the past is knowable; the future is not. Since this seems manifestly unsatisfactory to everyone asking the question, let me rephrase it.First, it's possible that the market already has bottomed. On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index closed at their lowest levels in 12 years. The Nasdaq may have bottomed last November. Needless to say, if the market has bottomed, you can relax and stop obsessing about it. You don't want to sell now. The fundamental goal of the Common Sense system is to buy lower, sell higher. Thus, you should never sell when the market hits a new low (or buy when it hits a new high). Following this simple rule guarantees that you will never sell at the bottom nor buy at the top of a market.But let's assume that the market hasn't bottomed and will reach still-deeper lows. If you knew that for a certainty, would you sell all your stocks now? If you did, you could park the proceeds in something safe, like short-term Treasurys, currently yielding practically nothing, or money-market funds, barely yielding 1%. You could then wait until the market hits another low.Then what? Do you buy back in? Do you wait in anticipation of even-lower lows? The problem is that at every milestone, the future is no more knowable than it was at the previous one. If you're a long-term investor, to profit from selling now requires an accurate assessment of when to buy back in (and if you aren't a long-term investor, you shouldn't be in the stock market to begin with).In other words, you have to be right twice about something that no one can know with any certainty. You can pursue this strategy if you wish, but don't pretend it's anything but rolling the dice -- twice.Of course if you believe that the market will never recover, that the Dow industrials will never again reach 8000, you should sell. That requires a complete loss of faith not just in the stock market, but in the productive capacity of all mankind. I suppose it would be the equivalent of a return to the Dark Ages, though in the absence of any economic statistics or any stock markets, it's hard to know how much progress may actually have been achieved during those centuries. By contrast, since records have been kept, stocks have outperformed every other investment category. This includes the period of the Great Depression, when they lost nearly 90% of their value, as well as the current 50% drop.I have long advocated a strategy of buying into declines and selling into rallies, which is premised on the expectation that markets are periodically oversold and overbought. Since stock prices are predictions about future earnings, which are unknowable, they will never be entirely accurate, which creates periodic opportunities for investors. Given the tendency of stock prices to rise over time, the biggest risk for most investors is to overallocate to cash and to miss rallies, which can be swift and sudden.Given the current gloom about the economy and the markets, the risks of being underexposed to stocks now strikes me as especially acute. Even with the recent declines, we're not yet at the next buying threshold in the Common Sense system (1300 on the Nasdaq). But if you've been raising cash during the prolonged downturn, which means you've been very astute or lucky or both, you'll need to reinvest at some point. I see no reason not to start now, as long as you're willing to risk some short-term declines in return for long-term profits.This strategy has nothing to do with the current state of the global economy, the health of the banking system, real-estate prices or corporate profits. But for what it's worth, I've been seeing some positive glimmers when it comes to the fundamentals, especially greater liquidity in the financial system, something of a rally in corporate bonds -- even junk -- and some firmness in commodity prices. People may quarrel about the details, but the large stimulus package, a comprehensive approach to the banking and financial system, a sensible approach to the foreclosure crisis, and an apparent willingness to confront the reality of the auto industry all strike me as important positive steps from Washington.As I said at the outset, this is nothing but an elaboration on my short answer. I don't know when the market will bottom. But whether it's this week, this year or next, I'm confident it will.James B. Stewart