本篇文章希望对demand forecasting涉及的技术进行框架性的整理。首先参考的是供应链及库存相关的著作,一般其中都会有关于forecasting的一章。
References
- Waters, D. (2003). Inventory control and management 2nd. John Wiley & Sons. (偏OM)
- Axsäter, S. (2015). Inventory control (Vol. 225) 3rd. Springer. (更新,信息更多些)
- Wheelwright, S., Makridakis, S., & Hyndman, R. J. (1998). Forecasting: methods and applications. John Wiley & Sons.(Add seasonality to ARIMA)
- Nahmias, S. (1994). Demand estimation in lost sales inventory systems. Naval Research Logistics (NRL), 41(6), 739-757. citation 175
- https://lovvge.github.io/Forecasting-Tutorial-KDD-2019/ (TODO 还没来得及细看)
方法论
哲学
- Fcst is unavoidable, no-fcst implies casual fcst
- fcst->realization->analysis->fcst again... is a loop
- Not only demand