Last week, Samsung announced the imminent release date for the Galaxy Z Fold 2, a $2,000 foldable phone. If that’s not rich enough for your tastes, the company also announced a designer Thom Browne edition of the device that comes with a Galaxy Watch 3 and Galaxy Buds for an eye-watering $3,300.
大号 AST本周，三星宣布即将发布日期为Galaxy Z形折叠部2，$ 2,000美元可折叠的手机。 如果那还不够丰富，不能满足您的口味，该公司还宣布了该设备的设计师Thom Browne版，其中配备了Galaxy Watch 3和Galaxy Buds，价格高达$ 3,300。
It’s almost as if Samsung didn’t hear that tens of millions of people in the United States alone have lost their jobs in the worst pandemic to hit the planet in generations.
似乎三星似乎没有听说过，仅在美国就有几千万人在几代人遭受的最严重的大流行中失去了工作 。
But the seemingly tone-deaf timing of Samsung’s very expensive phone release is not entirely Samsung’s fault. While new smartphones come out every year, the design and manufacturing process takes a lot longer. When Google bought Motorola’s consumer tech branch in 2011, for example, it took two years before the first Google-designed Motorola phones were released. While most manufacturers don’t discuss how long it takes to design and produce a smartphone, this was a rare insight into the process that serves as a handy benchmark. Mass manufacturing can take up to six months for tech products, according to hardware engineering firm Mindtribe. Including design and testing phases, the whole process can take up to two years from start to finish.
但三星的非常昂贵的手机发布的seeminglŸ五音不全时间不完全是三星的过错。 尽管每年都会出现新的智能手机，但设计和制造过程会花费更长的时间。 例如，当Google在2011年收购摩托罗拉的消费者技术部门时， 花了两年时间才发布了第一批Google设计的摩托罗拉手机。 虽然大多数制造商都没有讨论设计和生产智能手机需要多长时间，但是这对于作为方便基准的过程是一个难得的见解。 硬件工程公司Mindtribe表示，大规模生产高科技产品可能需要六个月的时间 。 包括设计和测试阶段，整个过程从开始到完成可能需要长达两年的时间。
Which is to say in March 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic was gaining traction, it was already too late for Samsung to change its plans to release a $2,000 phone in six months. The ship had sailed.
也就是说，在2020年3月，当冠状病毒大流行越来越受到关注时，对于三星来说，改变其在六个月内发布2,000美元手机的计划已经为时已晚。 船开了。
Back when Samsung decided to make the Galaxy Z Fold 2, an expensive foldable phone might have made more sense. By early 2020, Samsung had reportedly sold around half a million of its previous Galaxy Fold devices. While that’s not a blockbuster number, it was in line with the company’s own internal projections. At the time, one analyst suggested that Samsung might grow the business to sell 6 million foldable phones in 2020. It even got off to a decent start selling a quarter-million Galaxy Flip phones in March.
当三星决定制造Galaxy Z Fold 2时，昂贵的可折叠手机可能更有意义。 据报道 ，到2020年初，三星售出了约50万部以前的Galaxy Fold设备。 虽然这不是一个惊人的数字，但与公司自己的内部预测相符。 当时，一位分析师建议三星可能会发展该业务，到2020年销售600万部可折叠手机 。 它甚至在3月份开始销售25万部Galaxy Flip手机 ，取得了不错的成绩 。
But the pandemic hasn’t been kind to the smartphone market. According to research from Canalys, it cratered in the first quarter of 2020, which ended in April. Global unit shipments fell 13% compared to the previous year, hitting the lowest point since 2013. Samsung in particular saw a massive 17% drop in units shipped, foldable or otherwise, down to around 60 million devices.
但是这种流行病对智能手机市场并不友好。 根据Canalys的研究，它在2020年第一季度(到 4月结束)出现了陨石坑。 全球单位出货量与去年相比下降了13％，达到了2013年以来的最低点。尤其是三星，可折叠或其他形式的单位出货量大幅下降了17％，降至约6000万部。
Even though announcing a $2,000 phone might seem tacky during a pandemic… Samsung might still believe its best option is to stay the course.
即使在大流行期间宣布推出2,000美元的手机似乎有些俗气……三星可能仍然认为，最好的选择是坚持到底。
“Many customers who would have bought a new smartphone as a luxury have delayed that purchase,” a Canalys analyst explained in its report. The second quarter of 2020 was even worse for smartphone sales. Samsung’s phone shipment sales fell to 53.7 million units shipped, 30% lower than the previous year.
Canalys分析师在报告中解释说：“许多本来会购买新智能手机作为奢侈品的客户却推迟了购买。” 2020年第二季度的智能手机销售情况更糟 。 三星的手机出货量下降至5370万台，比上年下降30％。
The only smartphone manufacturer that has managed to see any growth this year is Apple. Despite also experiencing shrinking sales in the first quarter, Apple managed to defy expectations in the second quarter by increasing handset sales by an otherwise unheard of 25% compared to the previous year. While every other handset manufacturer was experiencing losses, Apple sold 9.1 million more handsets than it did over the same time period in 2019.
苹果是唯一一家今年有望实现增长的智能手机制造商。 尽管第一季度的销售也出现萎缩，但苹果仍设法打破了第二季度的预期，其手机销售量比上年增长了25％，这是闻所未闻的。 尽管其他所有手机制造商都在遭受亏损，但苹果公司的手机销量比2019年同期增加了910万部。
How did Apple do it? By releasing the latest version of its most affordable phone, the iPhone SE, at just the right time in April. According to Canalys, the iPhone SE made up 28% of Apple’s global volume in the second quarter, or 12.6 million handsets, which more than accounts for the 9.1 million-unit shipment growth.
苹果是如何做到的？ 通过在4月的正确时间发布其最实惠的手机iPhone SE的最新版本。 据Canalys称，第二季度iPhone SE占苹果全球销量的28％，即1,260万部手机，超过了910万部出货量的增长。
It’s not a huge stretch to say that for Apple, the SE 2 made the difference between a growth quarter and the same drop in sales that every other manufacturer experienced. The company did, in fact, see a contraction the previous quarter, when the iPhone SE 2 had only just come out, too late to move the needle much.
可以说，对于苹果公司而言，SE 2在增长季度和其他制造商经历的销售下降之间都产生了差异。 实际上，该公司确实看到了上个季度的收缩，当时iPhone SE 2才刚刚问世，为时已晚。
Apple couldn’t release the iPhone SE as a slapdash response to the pandemic any more than Samsung could change its plans to release a $2,000 phone in the midst of a pandemic. It’s simply not possible for manufacturers to change their plans that rapidly. But the stark contrast between the state of Apple and Samsung’s smartphone lineup today offers a glimpse into how dramatically the market has changed since 2019.
苹果无法发布iPhone SE作为对这一大流行的轻率回应，就像三星可能改变在大流行中发布2,000美元手机的计划一样。 制造商不可能如此Swift地改变他们的计划。 但是，如今苹果的状态与三星的智能手机阵容之间形成鲜明对比，让我们可以一窥自2019年以来市场发生了多大变化。
Even if it was only aimed at a small, generally wealthier slice of the population, the decision to sell a $2,000 smartphone made a bit more sense a year and a half ago. Before the pandemic hit, the smartphone market already seemed to be moving away from fancy phones, but there was still a little room for a small luxury market. Now, that space has evaporated too suddenly for manufacturers to respond.
即使只针对一小部分人，通常是较富裕的人群，一年半前决定出售售价为2,000美元的智能手机的决定还是有些道理的。 在大流行之前，智能手机市场似乎已经从高档手机中移走 ，但小型奢侈品市场仍有很小的空间。 现在，这个空间突然消失了，制造商无法做出回应。
Even in a thriving economy, Samsung’s foldable phones were never meant to appeal to everyone — the already ambitious goal to sell 6 million foldables in all of 2020 doesn’t hold a candle to the 76 million total units Samsung shipped in the second quarter of 2019 alone — but according to Canalys’ most recent report, Samsung has shipped only 1 million foldable phones since first launching the original Galaxy Fold, and most of those were the cheaper Galaxy Flip. If the luxury market wanted expensive foldable phones before, it has lost its appetite for them in 2020.
即使在经济蓬勃发展的情况下，三星的可折叠手机也绝不会吸引所有人-雄心勃勃的目标是在2020年全年销售600万个可折叠产品，这与三星在2019年第二季度共售出7600万部手机并不相称据Canalys的最新报告显示 ，自首次推出原始版Galaxy Fold以来，三星仅售出了100万部可折叠手机，其中大多数是价格更便宜的Galaxy Flip。 如果奢侈品市场以前想要昂贵的可折叠手机，那么到2020年它就会失去对它们的胃口。
One easy solution for Samsung could be to drop the price of its foldable phones, even by a couple hundred dollars. But just as Samsung had to make decisions about 2020 smartphones as far back as 2018, any decisions the company makes today have to be made with 2022 in mind. And thinking on that long of a timeline might make dropping prices now a bad idea from the company’s perspective. Lowering prices on the Galaxy Fold 2 is unlikely to lead to enough extra sales to make up for making less money per unit and would make it hard to justify asking for more money in the future.
对于三星来说，一个简单的解决方案可能是将其可折叠手机的价格降低甚至数百美元。 但是正如三星早在2018年就必须做出有关2020年智能手机的决定一样，该公司今天做出的任何决定都必须牢记2022年。 从公司的角度来看，考虑这么长的时间表可能会使现在降低价格成为一个坏主意。 降低Galaxy Fold 2的价格不太可能导致足够的额外销售来弥补每单位更少的利润，并且很难证明将来要求增加利润。
The lowest price a consumer has ever paid for a product is what business analysts refer to as “reference price.” Once that’s lowered, it’s almost impossible to raise it again without offering some additional benefit. Think of the backlash anytime Netflix hikes its price, even if the company promises to add new content. “Why should I pay $2,000 for the Galaxy Fold 3 if the Fold 2 was only $1,500?” a future customer might wonder. Instead of dropping the price, the company might be better off trying to offer alternative incentives to boost sales, like the fashionable stripe on the Thom Browne edition.
消费者曾经为产品支付的最低价格就是业务分析师所称的“ 参考价格” 。 一旦降低，几乎不可能在不提供其他额外收益的情况下再次提高它。 即使Netflix承诺增加新内容，也可以在Netflix提价时想一想。 “如果Fold 2仅为1,500美元，为什么我要为Galaxy Fold 3支付2,000美元？” 未来的客户可能会感到奇怪。 与其降低价格，不如尝试提供其他激励措施来提高销量，例如Thom Browne版上时髦的条纹 ，该公司可能会更好。
So, even though announcing a $2,000 phone might seem tacky during a pandemic when millions are out of work and even more need to save every dollar possible, Samsung might still believe its best option is to stay the course. Eventually the pandemic will end, and (hopefully) the economy will bounce back. And when that happens, Samsung will probably want consumers to still believe a foldable phone is worth two grand.
因此，即使在大流行的时候宣布2,000美元的手机似乎有些俗气，当成千上万的人无法工作并且甚至需要节省每一美元时，三星可能仍然认为，最好的选择是坚持到底。 最终，大流行病将结束，经济(有望)将反弹。 而且当这种情况发生时，三星可能会希望消费者仍然相信可折叠手机值得两大。
For now, though, few seem to agree.
不过，到目前为止，似乎很少有人同意。
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