安全档案存在一个比较深层次的问题,就是确认偏见。所谓确认偏见,就是一种为自己已有观点不断搜集解释依据,不断确认自己观点的心理趋向(通俗点讲就是自己骗自己)。举一个简单的例子,假如你逛某宝时发现一双自己有点喜欢的鞋子(你可买可不买),你随手把它加入购物车,随后的几天每次当你打开某宝时,你都会看一眼这双鞋,你会从不同的角度为这双鞋找优点(比如它款式真好,价格又便宜,我今天出门发现鞋子不够了等等)来不断暗示自己这双鞋太好了,然后,你慢慢发现这双鞋简直太完美了,你必须把它买下来(买回来后,你发现自己其实并不那么喜欢或者需要这双鞋),买鞋这个结论中就包含了比较明显的确认偏见。
Nancy Leveson 在《White Paper on the Use of Safety Cases in Certification and Regulation》中提到“ Confirmation biases are not limited to the collection of evidence. The specification and interpretation of the information is also critical确认偏见不仅限于收集证据,信息的规范和解释也很关键”在这篇文章中,她认为“ People will focus on and interpret evidence in a way that confirms the goal they have set for themselves. If the goal is to prove the system is safe, they will focus on the evidence that shows it is safe and create an argument for safety. If the goal is to s