Contents
A R ( p ) {\rm AR}(p) AR(p) 序列举例
A R ( 1 ) {\rm AR}(1) AR(1) 模型
模型设定:
X t = a X t − 1 + ε t , t ∈ Z , X_t=aX_{t-1}+\varepsilon_t \ , \ \ \ \ t\in\Z\ , Xt=aXt−1+εt , t∈Z ,
ε t ∼ W N ( 0 , σ 2 ) . \varepsilon_t\sim{\rm WN}(0,\,\sigma^2)\ . εt∼WN(0,σ2) .
特征多项式: A ( z ) = 1 − a z A(z)=1-az A(z)=1−az 。
最小相位条件: ∣ a ∣ < 1 |a|<1 ∣a∣<1 。
平稳解:
X t = ∑ j = 0 ∞ a j ε t − j , t ∈ Z . X_t=\sum_{j=0}^\infty a^j\varepsilon_{t-j}\ ,t\in\Z. Xt=j=0∑∞ajεt−j ,t∈Z.
自协方差函数和自相关系数:
γ 0 = σ 2 ∑ j = 0 ∞ a 2 j = σ 2 1 − a 2 . \gamma_0=\sigma^2\sum_{j=0}^\infty a^{2j}=\frac{\sigma^2}{1-a^2}. γ0=σ2j=0∑∞a2j=1−a2σ2.
γ k = a γ k − 1 = a 2 γ k − 2 = ⋯ = a k γ 0 . \gamma_k=a\gamma_{k-1}=a^2\gamma_{k-2}=\cdots=a^k\gamma_0. γk=aγk−1=a2γk−2=⋯=akγ0.
ρ k = γ k γ 0 = a k . \rho_k=\frac{\gamma_k}{\gamma_0}=a^k. ρk=γ0γk=ak.
谱密度:
f ( λ ) = σ 2 2 π 1 ∣ A ( e i λ ) ∣ 2 = σ 2 2 π 1 ∣ 1 − a e i λ ∣ 2 = σ 2 2 π 1 ∣ 1 + a 2 − 2 a cos λ ∣ , λ ∈ [ − π , π ] . f(\lambda)=\frac{\sigma^2}{2\pi}\frac{1}{\left|A(e^{i\lambda})\right|^2}=\frac{\sigma^2}{2\pi}\frac{1}{\left|1-ae^{i\lambda}\right|^2}=\frac{\sigma^2}{2\pi}\frac{1}{\left|1+a^2-2a\cos\lambda\right|} \ , \ \ \ \ \lambda\in[-\pi,\,\pi]. f(λ)=2πσ2∣A(eiλ)∣21=2πσ2