23科大专硕
一、填空题
- 投掷硬币 n n n 次, 已知正面出现了 k k k 次, 则前两次是正面的概率是 ‾ \underline{\qquad} .
Solution: k ( k − 1 ) n ( n − 1 ) \frac{k(k-1)}{n(n-1)} n(n−1)k(k−1).
P ( X 1 = 1 , X 2 = 1 ∣ ∑ i = 1 n X i = k ) = P ( X 1 = 1 , X 2 = 1 , ∑ i = 3 n X i = k − 2 ) C n k ( 1 2 ) n = 1 2 ⋅ 1 2 ⋅ C n − 2 k − 2 ( 1 2 ) n − 2 C n k ( 1 2 ) n = k ( k − 1 ) n ( n − 1 ) . \begin{aligned} P\left( X_1=1,X_2=1\left| \sum_{i=1}^n{X_i}=k \right. \right) &=\frac{P\left( X_1=1,X_2=1,\sum_{i=3}^n{X_i}=k-2 \right)}{C_{n}^{k}\left( \frac{1}{2} \right) ^n}\\ &=\frac{\frac{1}{2}\cdot \frac{1}{2}\cdot C_{n-2}^{k-2}\left( \frac{1}{2} \right) ^{n-2}}{C_{n}^{k}\left( \frac{1}{2} \right) ^n}=\frac{k\left( k-1 \right)}{n\left( n-1 \right)}.\\ \end{aligned} P(X1=1,X2=1 i=1∑nXi=k)=Cnk(21)nP(X1=1,X2=1,∑i=3nXi=k−2)=Cnk(21)n21⋅21⋅Cn−2k−2(21)n−2=n(n−1)k(k−1).
- 设有三角形 A B C ABC ABC, 某人最开始站在 A A A 点, 随机的向另外两个点走去, 随后每次如此, 问第 n n n 次他走向 A A A 点的概率是 ‾ \underline{\qquad} .
Solution: 1 3 ( 1 − ( − 1 2 ) n ) \frac{1}{3}\left( 1-\left( -\frac{1}{2} \right) ^n \right) 31(1−(−21)n).
考虑状态法, 设 a n , b n , c n a_n,b_n,c_n an,bn,cn 分别是它第 n n n 次之后位于三点的概率, 有 a 0 = 1 , b 0 = 0 , c 0 = 0 a_0=1,b_0=0,c_0=0 a0=1,b0=0,c0=0, 以及 a 1 = 0 , b 1 = 1 2 , c 1 = 1 2 a_1=0,b_1=\frac{1}{2},c_1=\frac{1}{2} a1=0,b1=21,c1=21. 显然所求概率应为 p n = 1 − a n − 1 2 p_n = \frac{1-a_{n-1}}{2} pn=21−an−1, 即它上一次之后不在 A A A 点的概率, 再等分给他可以前往的两点.
用全概率公式有
{
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\begin{cases} a_{n+1}=0\cdot a_n+\frac{1}{2}\cdot b_n+\frac{1}{2}\cdot c_n,\\ b_{n+1}=\frac{1}{2}\cdot a_n+0\cdot b_n+\frac{1}{2}\cdot c_n,\\ a_{n+1}=\frac{1}{2}\cdot a_n+\frac{1}{2}\cdot b_n+0\cdot c_n,\\ \end{cases}\quad \Rightarrow \quad \left( \begin{array}{c} a_{n+1}\\ b_{n+1}\\ c_{n+1}\\ \end{array} \right) =\left( \begin{matrix} 0& \frac{1}{2}& \frac{1}{2}\\ \frac{1}{2}& 0& \frac{1}{2}\\ \frac{1}{2}& \frac{1}{2}& 0\\ \end{matrix} \right) \left( \begin{array}{c} a_n\\ b_n\\ c_n\\ \end{array} \right) ,
⎩
⎨
⎧an+1=0⋅an+21⋅bn+21⋅cn,bn+1=21⋅an+0⋅bn+21⋅cn,an+1=21⋅an+21⋅bn+0⋅cn,⇒
an+1bn+1cn+1
=
021212102121210
anbncn
,
可以用这个矩阵
n
n
n 次方去算, 该方法称为马尔科夫链. 但是根据对称性, 我们知道
b
n
=
c
n
b_n=c_n
bn=cn, 故
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−
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b_n=c_n=\frac{1-a_n}{2}
bn=cn=21−an, 到最后只剩
a
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a_n
an 一个序列了, 我们反表示出
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a_n=1-2p_{n+1}
an=1−2pn+1,
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b_n=c_n=p_{n+1}
bn=cn=pn+1, 代入第一个全概率公式即为
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1-2p_{n+2}=p_{n+1},\quad \Rightarrow \quad p_{n+1}-\frac{1}{3}=-\frac{1}{2}\left( p_{n+1}-\frac{1}{3} \right) ,
1−2pn+2=pn+1,⇒pn+1−31=−21(pn+1−31),
代入
p
0
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0
p_0=0
p0=0, 解得
p
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=
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n
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p_n=\frac{1}{3}+\left( -\frac{1}{2} \right) ^n\left( 0-\frac{1}{3} \right) =\frac{1}{3}\left( 1-\left( -\frac{1}{2} \right) ^n \right) .
pn=31+(−21)n(0−31)=31(1−(−21)n).
- 已知将 A , B , C A,B,C A,B,C 三个子母输入信道, 输出正确的概率是 0.8 0.8 0.8, 输出为其他字母的概率是 0.1 , 0.1 0.1,0.1 0.1,0.1. 现在, 等概率地输入 A A A A , B B B B , C C C C AAAA,BBBB,CCCC AAAA,BBBB,CCCC, 且观测到 A C B A ACBA ACBA, 问输入是 A A A A AAAA AAAA 的概率为 ‾ \underline{\qquad} .
Solution: 0.8 0.8 0.8.
利用全概率公式得
P
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:
A
C
B
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=
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0.
8
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0.8
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0.8
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=
0.00266667
,
P\left( \mathrm{out}:ACBA \right) =\frac{1}{3}\cdot \left( 0.8^2\cdot 0.1^2 \right) +\frac{1}{3}\cdot \left( 0.1^3\cdot 0.8 \right) +\frac{1}{3}\cdot \left( 0.1^3\cdot 0.8 \right) =0.00266667,
P(out:ACBA)=31⋅(0.82⋅0.12)+31⋅(0.13⋅0.8)+31⋅(0.13⋅0.8)=0.00266667,
利用贝叶斯公式得
P
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0.8.
P\left( \mathrm{in}:AAAA \right) =\frac{\frac{1}{3}\cdot \left( 0.8^2\cdot 0.1^2 \right)}{P\left( \mathrm{out}:ACBA \right)}=0.8.
P(in:AAAA)=P(out:ACBA)31⋅(0.82⋅0.12)=0.8.
- 检验的 p p p 值是否为统计量? ‾ \underline{\qquad} .
Solution: 是.
p p p 值依赖于观测到的样本, 属于统计量.
- 下列说法正确的个数是
‾
\underline{\qquad}
.
(1) R 2 R^2 R2 越小说明方程的拟合越好;
(2) R 2 R^2 R2 越大说明方程的拟合越好;
(3) 残差 e = y ^ − y e=\hat{y}-y e=y^−y 越大说明方程的拟合越好;
(4) 残差分析图中, 点的分布越平稳说明方程的拟合越好, 且点分布带状图越窄, 说明拟合精度越高.
Solution: 2.
(1) (3) 显然错误, (2) (4) 正确.
- 对任意三角形
A
B
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ABC
ABC 内部取一点
P
P
P, 在
B
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BC
BC 上取
Q
Q
Q, 则直线
P
Q
PQ
PQ 与
A
B
AB
AB 相交的概率是
‾
\underline{\qquad}
.
A. 1 2 \frac{1}{2} 21
B. ∣ B C ∣ ∣ A B ∣ + ∣ B C ∣ \frac{|BC|}{|AB|+|BC|} ∣AB∣+∣BC∣∣BC∣
C. ∣ B C ∣ 2 ∣ A B ∣ + ∣ B C ∣ \frac{|BC|^2}{|AB|+|BC|} ∣AB∣+∣BC∣∣BC∣2
D. ∣ A B ∣ + ∣ A C ∣ + ∣ B C ∣ 2 ∣ A B ∣ + ∣ A C ∣ + ∣ B C ∣ \frac{|AB|+|AC|+\frac{|BC|}{2}}{|AB|+|AC|+|BC|} ∣AB∣+∣AC∣+∣BC∣∣AB∣+∣AC∣+2∣BC∣ 不确定
Solution: A.
设三角形的边
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BC=a,
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B 为原点,
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BC 为
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Q∼U(0,a),
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P\sim U(\Delta ABC)
P∼U(ΔABC). 先取定
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Q=(q,0)
Q=(q,0), 连接
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AQ,
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P 要落在
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\Delta ABQ
ΔABQ 里才能满足题设条件, 故有
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\mathrm{Pr}\left( P\in \Delta ABQ|Q=q \right) =\frac{S_{\Delta ABQ}}{S_{\Delta ABC}}=\frac{q}{a},
Pr(P∈ΔABQ∣Q=q)=SΔABCSΔABQ=aq,
再让
q
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q 动起来, 有
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\mathrm{Pr}\left( PQ\cap AB \right) =\int_0^a{\frac{q}{a}\cdot \frac{1}{a}}dq=\frac{1}{2}.
Pr(PQ∩AB)=∫0aaq⋅a1dq=21.
- 设
X
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,
⋯
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X
9
X_1,\cdots,X_9
X1,⋯,X9 是 i.i.d. 的
N
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N(0,1)
N(0,1) 随机变量, 下列正确的是
‾
\underline{\qquad}
.
A. X 1 2 + X 2 2 + X 3 2 X 4 2 + ⋯ + X 9 2 ∼ F ( 3 , 6 ) \frac{X_1^2+X_2^2+X_3^2}{X_4^2+\cdots+X_9^2}\sim F(3,6) X42+⋯+X92X12+X22+X32∼F(3,6)
B. 2 X 1 2 + X 2 2 + X 3 2 X 4 2 + ⋯ + X 9 2 ∼ F ( 3 , 6 ) 2\frac{X_1^2+X_2^2+X_3^2}{X_4^2+\cdots+X_9^2}\sim F(3,6) 2X42+⋯+X92X12+X22+X32∼F(3,6)
C. X 1 2 X 1 2 + X 2 2 ∼ F ( 1 , 2 ) \frac{X_1^2}{X_1^2+X_2^2} \sim F(1,2) X12+X22X12∼F(1,2)
D. 2 X 1 2 X 1 2 + X 2 2 ∼ F ( 1 , 2 ) \frac{2X_1^2}{X_1^2+X_2^2} \sim F(1,2) X12+X222X12∼F(1,2)
Solution: B.
注意 C, D 并不满足分子分母的独立性.
- 已知 X ∼ P ( λ ) X\sim \mathcal{P}(\lambda) X∼P(λ), Y ∼ P ( μ ) Y\sim \mathcal{P}(\mu) Y∼P(μ), 且它们独立, 求 E ( X ∣ X + Y = n ) = ‾ E(X|X+Y=n)=\underline{\qquad} E(X∣X+Y=n)=.
Solution: λ n λ + μ \frac{\lambda n}{\lambda+\mu} λ+μλn.
P ( X = k ∣ X + Y = n ) = P ( X = k , Y = n − k ) P ( X + Y = n ) = λ k k ! e − λ μ n − k ( n − k ) ! e − μ ( λ + μ ) n n ! e − ( λ + μ ) = C n k ( λ λ + μ ) k ( μ λ + μ ) n − k , P\left( X=k|X+Y=n \right) =\frac{P\left( X=k,Y=n-k \right)}{P\left( X+Y=n \right)}=\frac{\frac{\lambda ^k}{k!}e^{-\lambda}\frac{\mu ^{n-k}}{\left( n-k \right) !}e^{-\mu}}{\frac{\left( \lambda +\mu \right) ^n}{n!}e^{-\left( \lambda +\mu \right)}}=C_{n}^{k}\left( \frac{\lambda}{\lambda +\mu} \right) ^k\left( \frac{\mu}{\lambda +\mu} \right) ^{n-k}, P(X=k∣X+Y=n)=P(X+Y=n)P(X=k,Y=n−k)=n!(λ+μ)ne−(λ+μ)k!λke−λ(n−k)!μn−ke−μ=Cnk(λ+μλ)k(λ+μμ)n−k,
因此 X + Y = n X+Y=n X+Y=n 时, X X X 的条件分布是 B ( n , λ λ + μ ) B(n,\frac{\lambda}{\lambda +\mu}) B(n,λ+μλ), 故期望是 λ n λ + μ \frac{\lambda n}{\lambda+\mu} λ+μλn.
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CLT,忘了,比较简单
-
忘了
二、计算分析题
- (25分) 已知
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∼
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X\sim f(x)=\frac{1}{2}e^{-\frac{1}{2}x},x>0
X∼f(x)=21e−21x,x>0,
Y
∼
U
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0
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1
)
Y\sim U(0,1)
Y∼U(0,1), 且它们独立.
(1) 求联合密度 f ( x , y ) f(x,y) f(x,y);
(2) 求 Z = X + Y Z=X+Y Z=X+Y 的密度函数;
(3) 求 t 2 + 2 X t + Y = 0 t^2+2Xt+Y=0 t2+2Xt+Y=0 有实根的概率, 保留 3 位小数.
Solution: (1) 根据独立性, 有
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=
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e
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f(x,y)=\frac{1}{2}e^{-\frac{1}{2}x},\quad x>0,\quad 0<1<y.
f(x,y)=21e−21x,x>0,0<1<y.
(2) 作变量变换, 有
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\begin{cases} Z=X+Y,\\ W=Y,\\ \end{cases}\Rightarrow \begin{cases} z=x+y,\\ w=y,\\ \end{cases}\Rightarrow \begin{cases} x=z-w,\\ y=w,\\ \end{cases}\Rightarrow J=\left| \begin{matrix} 1& -1\\ 0& 1\\ \end{matrix} \right|=1,
{Z=X+Y,W=Y,⇒{z=x+y,w=y,⇒{x=z−w,y=w,⇒J=
10−11
=1,
因此有
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f_{Z,W}\left( z,w \right) =f\left( z-w,w \right) =\frac{1}{2}e^{-\frac{z}{2}+\frac{w}{2}},\quad z>w,0<w<1,
fZ,W(z,w)=f(z−w,w)=21e−2z+2w,z>w,0<w<1,
积掉
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f_Z\left( z \right) =\frac{1}{2}e^{-\frac{z}{2}}\int_0^{\min \left\{ z,1 \right\}}{e^{\frac{w}{2}}dw}=e^{-\frac{z}{2}}\left( e^{\frac{\min \left\{ z,1 \right\}}{2}}-1 \right) =\begin{cases} e^{-\frac{z}{2}}\left( e^{\frac{1}{2}}-1 \right) ,& z>1,\\ 1-e^{-\frac{z}{2}},& 0<z<1.\\ \end{cases}
fZ(z)=21e−2z∫0min{z,1}e2wdw=e−2z(e2min{z,1}−1)={e−2z(e21−1),1−e−2z,z>1,0<z<1.
(3)
Δ
=
4
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2
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4
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Δ=4X2−4Y, 故所求概率为
P
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X
2
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P(X^2\ge Y)
P(X2≥Y), 有
P
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2
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f
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8
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0.721632.
P\left( X^2\ge Y \right) =\int_0^1{P\left( X\ge \sqrt{y} \right) f_Y\left( y \right) dy}=\int_0^1{e^{-\frac{\sqrt{y}}{2}}dy}=8\left( 1-\frac{3}{2}e^{-\frac{1}{2}} \right) =0.721632.
P(X2≥Y)=∫01P(X≥y)fY(y)dy=∫01e−2ydy=8(1−23e−21)=0.721632.
- (10分) 假设检验问题: 给出两组正态总体数据
X
,
Y
X,Y
X,Y.
(1) 检验 H 0 : σ 1 2 = σ 2 2 H_0:\sigma_1^2 =\sigma_2^2 H0:σ12=σ22;
(2) 检验 H 0 : μ 1 = μ 2 H_0:\mu_1=\mu_2 H0:μ1=μ2.
- (25分) 有来自总体
f
(
x
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a
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=
2
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a
2
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<
x
<
a
f(x,a)=\frac{2x}{a^2},0<x<a
f(x,a)=a22x,0<x<a 的 i.i.d. 样本
x
1
,
⋯
,
x
n
x_1,\cdots,x_n
x1,⋯,xn, 已知
a
>
1
a>1
a>1.
(1) 求 a a a 的矩估计 a ^ 1 \hat{a}_1 a^1, 最大似然估计 a ^ 2 \hat{a}_2 a^2, 以及 P ( 0 < X < a ) P(0<X<\sqrt{a}) P(0<X<a) 的MLE;
(2) a ^ 1 \hat{a}_1 a^1, a ^ 2 \hat{a}_2 a^2 是否为无偏估计, 若不是请修正;
(3) 求 n ( a − a ^ 2 ) n(a-\hat{a}_2) n(a−a^2) 在 n → ∞ n\to \infty n→∞ 的渐近分布.
Solution: (1) 求总体期望 E ( X ) E(X) E(X), 利用 X a ∼ B e t a ( 2 , 1 ) \frac{X}{a}\sim Beta(2,1) aX∼Beta(2,1) 或直接积分有 E ( X ) = 2 3 a E(X)=\frac{2}{3}a E(X)=32a, 由替换原理, 得 a ^ 1 = 3 2 x ˉ \hat{a}_1=\frac{3}{2}\bar{x} a^1=23xˉ.
再写似然函数, 有
L
(
a
)
=
2
n
∏
i
=
1
n
x
i
a
2
n
,
a
>
max
{
x
(
n
)
,
1
}
,
L\left( a \right) =\frac{2^n\prod_{i=1}^n{x_i}}{a^{2n}},\quad a>\max \left\{ x_{\left( n \right)},1 \right\} ,
L(a)=a2n2n∏i=1nxi,a>max{x(n),1},
可以看出似然函数关于
a
a
a 递减, 故有
a
^
2
=
max
{
x
(
n
)
,
1
}
=
{
1
,
x
(
n
)
<
1
,
x
(
n
)
,
x
(
n
)
≥
1.
\hat{a}_2=\max \{x_{(n)},1\}=\begin{cases} 1,& x_{\left( n \right)}<1,\\ x_{\left( n \right)},& x_{\left( n \right)}\ge 1.\\ \end{cases}
a^2=max{x(n),1}={1,x(n),x(n)<1,x(n)≥1.
(2) 由于 E ( x ˉ ) = 2 3 a E(\bar{x})=\frac{2}{3}a E(xˉ)=32a, 显然 a ^ 1 \hat{a}_1 a^1 无偏.
对于
a
^
2
\hat{a}_2
a^2, 先求
x
(
n
)
x_{(n)}
x(n) 的分布, 有
P
(
x
(
n
)
≤
t
)
=
P
n
(
X
≤
t
)
=
(
t
a
)
2
n
,
f
n
(
t
)
=
2
n
t
2
n
−
1
a
2
n
,
0
<
t
<
a
,
P\left( x_{\left( n \right)}\le t \right) =P^n\left( X\le t \right) =\left( \frac{t}{a} \right) ^{2n},\quad f_n\left( t \right) =\frac{2nt^{2n-1}}{a^{2n}},\quad 0<t<a,
P(x(n)≤t)=Pn(X≤t)=(at)2n,fn(t)=a2n2nt2n−1,0<t<a,
实际上即为
x
(
n
)
a
∼
B
e
(
2
n
,
1
)
\frac{x_{(n)}}{a}\sim Be(2n,1)
ax(n)∼Be(2n,1), 故有
E
(
a
^
2
)
=
∫
0
1
f
n
(
t
)
d
t
+
∫
1
a
t
f
n
(
t
)
d
t
=
1
a
2
n
+
2
n
2
n
+
1
(
a
−
1
a
2
n
)
=
2
n
2
n
+
1
⋅
a
+
1
2
n
+
1
⋅
1
a
2
n
,
E\left( \hat{a}_2 \right) =\int_0^1{f_n\left( t \right) dt}+\int_1^a{tf_n\left( t \right) dt}=\frac{1}{a^{2n}}+\frac{2n}{2n+1}\left( a-\frac{1}{a^{2n}} \right) =\frac{2n}{2n+1}\cdot a+\frac{1}{2n+1}\cdot \frac{1}{a^{2n}},
E(a^2)=∫01fn(t)dt+∫1atfn(t)dt=a2n1+2n+12n(a−a2n1)=2n+12n⋅a+2n+11⋅a2n1,
由于
a
>
1
a>1
a>1, 故
1
a
2
n
<
1
\frac{1}{a^{2n}}<1
a2n1<1, 因此
2
n
2
n
+
1
⋅
a
+
1
2
n
+
1
⋅
1
a
2
n
<
2
n
2
n
+
1
⋅
a
+
1
2
n
+
1
<
a
.
\frac{2n}{2n+1}\cdot a+\frac{1}{2n+1}\cdot \frac{1}{a^{2n}}<\frac{2n}{2n+1}\cdot a+\frac{1}{2n+1}<a.
2n+12n⋅a+2n+11⋅a2n1<2n+12n⋅a+2n+11<a.
故
a
^
2
\hat{a}_2
a^2 不无偏. 直接乘一个不含
a
a
a 的数不可能修正为无偏估计, 但我们发现在求期望的过程中, 如果写成
∫
0
1
f
n
(
t
)
d
t
+
2
n
+
1
2
n
∫
1
a
t
f
n
(
t
)
d
t
=
1
a
2
n
+
(
a
−
1
a
2
n
)
=
a
,
\int_0^1{f_n\left( t \right) dt}+\frac{2n+1}{2n}\int_1^a{tf_n\left( t \right) dt}=\frac{1}{a^{2n}}+\left( a-\frac{1}{a^{2n}} \right) =a,
∫01fn(t)dt+2n2n+1∫1atfn(t)dt=a2n1+(a−a2n1)=a,
则恰好是无偏估计, 这对应的估计量是
a
~
2
=
{
1
,
x
(
n
)
<
1
,
2
n
+
1
2
n
x
(
n
)
,
x
(
n
)
≥
1.
\tilde{a}_2=\begin{cases} 1,& x_{\left( n \right)}<1,\\ \frac{2n+1}{2n}x_{\left( n \right)},& x_{\left( n \right)}\ge 1.\\ \end{cases}
a~2={1,2n2n+1x(n),x(n)<1,x(n)≥1.
(3) 记
T
n
=
n
(
a
−
a
^
2
)
T_n = n(a-\hat{a}_2)
Tn=n(a−a^2), 则有
P
(
T
n
≤
t
)
=
P
(
n
(
a
−
a
^
2
)
≤
t
)
=
P
(
a
−
a
^
2
≤
t
n
)
=
P
(
a
^
2
≥
a
−
t
n
)
,
P\left( T_n\le t \right) =P\left( n\left( a-\hat{a}_2 \right) \le t \right) =P\left( a-\hat{a}_2\le \frac{t}{n} \right) =P\left( \hat{a}_2\ge a-\frac{t}{n} \right) ,
P(Tn≤t)=P(n(a−a^2)≤t)=P(a−a^2≤nt)=P(a^2≥a−nt),
对于
t
>
0
t>0
t>0, 总有
n
n
n 足够大使得
a
−
t
n
>
1
a-\frac{t}{n}>1
a−nt>1, 因此
P
(
a
^
2
≥
a
−
t
n
)
=
P
(
x
(
n
)
≥
a
−
t
n
)
=
1
−
(
1
−
t
a
n
)
2
n
→
1
−
e
−
2
t
a
,
t
>
0
,
P\left( \hat{a}_2\ge a-\frac{t}{n} \right) =P\left( x_{\left( n \right)}\ge a-\frac{t}{n} \right) =1-\left( 1-\frac{t}{an} \right) ^{2n}\rightarrow 1-e^{-\frac{2t}{a}},\quad t>0,
P(a^2≥a−nt)=P(x(n)≥a−nt)=1−(1−ant)2n→1−e−a2t,t>0,
这说明
n
(
a
−
a
^
2
)
→
d
E
x
p
(
2
a
)
n(a-\hat{a}_2)\xrightarrow{d}Exp(\frac{2}{a})
n(a−a^2)dExp(a2).
- (15分) 叙述题:(1) 叙述多重共线性的定义;
(2) 如何判断多重共线性:
(3) 如何消除多重共线性:
(4) 叙述自变量的选择标准.
Solution: (1) 在回归分析中,如果两个或两个以上自变量之间存在相关性,这种自变量之间的相关性,就称作多重共线性,也称作自变量间的相关性。多重共线性的存在违背了线性回归模型的基本假设,变量之间的线性相关性将会导致矩阵 X T X X^TX XTX 不满秩,进而导致最小二乘估计不唯一。
(2) 可以借助方差膨胀因子 VIF 来判断共线性,计算公式是
V
I
F
j
=
1
1
−
R
j
2
,
VIF_j = \frac{1}{1-R_j^2},
VIFj=1−Rj21,
一般我们认为 VIF > 10 时,存在多重共线性,该特征需要删除。
我们也可以分析矩阵 X T X X^TX XTX 的特征值,如果该矩阵的最小特征值非常接近于 0,我们也认为存在多重共线性。
(3) 可利用逐步回归筛选并剔除引起多重共线性的变量,其具体步骤如下:先用被解释变量对每一个所考虑的解释变量做简单回归,然后以对被解释变量贡献最大的解释变量所对应的回归方程为基础,再逐步引入其余解释变量。经过逐步回归,使得最后保留在模型中的解释变量既是重要的,又没有严重多重共线性。
(4) 在模型中加入自变量时,要尽量使得:残差平方和缩小或决定系数增大,若某一自变量被引入模型后 SSE 减小很多,说明该变量对反映变量 y y y 的作用大,可被引入;反之,说明其对 y y y 的作用小,不应该被引入。此外,还可以根据赤池信息准则(AIC)、贝叶斯信息准则(BIC)、对数似然函数值(LLH)等方法判断。
- (25分) 设有来自
f
(
x
;
λ
)
=
λ
e
−
λ
x
f(x;\lambda)=\lambda e^{-\lambda x}
f(x;λ)=λe−λx 指数分布的 i.i.d. 样本
x
1
,
⋯
,
x
n
x_1,\cdots,x_n
x1,⋯,xn, 但由于某种原因只能观测到
A
i
=
I
{
a
i
<
x
i
<
b
i
}
A_i=I_{\{a_i<x_i<b_i\}}
Ai=I{ai<xi<bi}, 其中
a
i
,
b
i
a_i,b_i
ai,bi 是给定常数,
i
=
1
,
2
,
⋯
,
n
i=1,2,\cdots,n
i=1,2,⋯,n.
(1) 写出 ( A 1 , ⋯ , A n ) (A_1,\cdots,A_n) (A1,⋯,An) 对应的对数似然函数 ℓ A ( λ ) \ell_A(\lambda) ℓA(λ), 同时写出完整样本 ( x 1 , ⋯ , x n ) (x_1,\cdots,x_n) (x1,⋯,xn) 对应的对数似然函数 ℓ X ( λ ) \ell_X(\lambda) ℓX(λ);
(2) 写出基于 ℓ A ( λ ) \ell_A(\lambda) ℓA(λ) 所求 MLE 满足的等式;
(3) 分别考虑两个步骤:
(i) E 步: 考虑 X ∼ E x p ( λ k ) X\sim Exp(\lambda_k) X∼Exp(λk), 求条件期望
Q ( λ ∣ λ k ) = E [ ℓ X ( λ ) ∣ A , λ k ] , Q(\lambda|\lambda_k) = E[\ell_X(\lambda)|A,\lambda_k], Q(λ∣λk)=E[ℓX(λ)∣A,λk],
(ii) M 步: 极大化 Q ( λ ) Q(\lambda) Q(λ), 即
λ k + 1 = a r g m a x λ Q ( λ ∣ λ k ) . \lambda_{k+1} =\underset{\lambda}{\mathrm{argmax}} Q(\lambda|\lambda_k). λk+1=λargmaxQ(λ∣λk).
(4) 证明: 通过两个步骤迭代得到的序列 λ n → λ ^ \lambda_n \to \hat{\lambda} λn→λ^, 其中 λ ^ \hat{\lambda} λ^ 是基于 ℓ A ( λ ) \ell_A(\lambda) ℓA(λ) 求得的 MLE. (提示:和 a i , b i , λ k , λ 0 a_i,b_i,\lambda_k,\lambda_0 ai,bi,λk,λ0 有关)
Solution: (1) 每个
A
i
A_i
Ai 都是两点分布, 其参数是
p
i
(
λ
)
=
P
(
a
i
<
x
i
<
b
i
)
=
e
−
λ
a
i
−
e
−
λ
b
i
,
p_i(\lambda) = P(a_i<x_i<b_i)= e^{-\lambda a_i}-e^{-\lambda b_i},
pi(λ)=P(ai<xi<bi)=e−λai−e−λbi,
因此有
L
A
(
λ
)
=
∏
i
=
1
n
p
i
A
i
(
1
−
p
i
)
1
−
A
i
=
∏
i
=
1
n
p
i
A
i
⋅
∏
i
=
1
n
(
1
−
p
i
)
1
−
A
i
,
L_A\left( \lambda \right) =\prod_{i=1}^n{p_{i}^{A_i}\left( 1-p_i \right) ^{1-A_i}}=\prod_{i=1}^n{p_{i}^{A_i}}\cdot \prod_{i=1}^n{\left( 1-p_i \right) ^{1-A_i}},
LA(λ)=i=1∏npiAi(1−pi)1−Ai=i=1∏npiAi⋅i=1∏n(1−pi)1−Ai,
故有
ℓ
A
(
λ
)
=
∑
i
=
1
n
A
i
ln
p
i
+
∑
i
=
1
n
(
1
−
A
i
)
ln
(
1
−
p
i
)
.
\ell _A\left( \lambda \right) =\sum_{i=1}^n{A_i\ln p_i}+\sum_{i=1}^n{\left( 1-A_i \right) \ln \left( 1-p_i \right)}.
ℓA(λ)=i=1∑nAilnpi+i=1∑n(1−Ai)ln(1−pi).
而全样本对应的对数似然函数是指数分布的联合密度取对数, 即
ℓ
X
(
λ
)
=
n
ln
λ
−
λ
∑
i
=
1
n
x
i
.
\ell _X\left( \lambda \right) =n\ln \lambda -\lambda \sum_{i=1}^n{x_i}.
ℓX(λ)=nlnλ−λi=1∑nxi.
(2) 记
q
i
(
λ
)
=
a
i
e
−
λ
a
i
−
b
i
e
−
λ
b
i
q_i(\lambda) = a_ie^{-\lambda a_i} - b_ie^{-\lambda b_i}
qi(λ)=aie−λai−bie−λbi, 实际上即
q
i
=
−
∂
p
i
∂
λ
q_i = -\frac{\partial p_i}{\partial \lambda}
qi=−∂λ∂pi, 求导有
∂
ℓ
A
∂
λ
=
∑
i
=
1
n
A
i
−
q
i
p
i
+
∑
i
=
1
n
(
1
−
A
i
)
q
i
1
−
p
i
=
−
∑
i
=
1
n
q
i
(
A
i
p
i
−
1
−
A
i
1
−
p
i
)
=
−
∑
i
=
1
n
q
i
A
i
−
p
i
p
i
(
1
−
p
i
)
,
\begin{aligned} \frac{\partial \ell _A}{\partial \lambda}&=\sum_{i=1}^n{A_i\frac{-q_i}{p_i}}+\sum_{i=1}^n{\left( 1-A_i \right) \frac{q_i}{1-p_i}}\\ &=-\sum_{i=1}^n{q_i\left( \frac{A_i}{p_i}-\frac{1-A_i}{1-p_i} \right)}=-\sum_{i=1}^n{q_i\frac{A_i-p_i}{p_i\left( 1-p_i \right)},}\\ \end{aligned}
∂λ∂ℓA=i=1∑nAipi−qi+i=1∑n(1−Ai)1−piqi=−i=1∑nqi(piAi−1−pi1−Ai)=−i=1∑nqipi(1−pi)Ai−pi,
因此 MLE
λ
^
\hat{\lambda}
λ^ 满足
∑
i
=
1
n
q
i
(
λ
^
)
A
i
−
p
i
(
λ
^
)
p
i
(
λ
^
)
(
1
−
p
i
(
λ
^
)
)
=
0.
\sum_{i=1}^n{q_i\left( \hat{\lambda} \right) \frac{A_i-p_i\left( \hat{\lambda} \right)}{p_i\left( \hat{\lambda} \right) \left( 1-p_i\left( \hat{\lambda} \right) \right)}}=0.
i=1∑nqi(λ^)pi(λ^)(1−pi(λ^))Ai−pi(λ^)=0.
(3) 先求
E
[
x
k
∣
A
k
]
E[x_k|A_k]
E[xk∣Ak], 有
E
[
x
i
∣
A
i
=
1
]
=
E
[
x
i
I
{
a
i
<
x
i
<
b
i
}
]
P
(
a
i
<
x
i
<
b
i
)
=
1
λ
+
q
i
p
i
,
E\left[ x_i\mid A_i=1 \right] =\frac{E\left[ x_iI_{\left\{ a_i<x_i<b_i \right\}} \right]}{P\left( a_i<x_i<b_i \right)}=\frac{1}{\lambda}+\frac{q_i}{p_i},
E[xi∣Ai=1]=P(ai<xi<bi)E[xiI{ai<xi<bi}]=λ1+piqi,
其中分子利用了
∫
a
i
b
i
λ
x
e
−
λ
x
d
x
=
1
λ
∫
λ
a
i
λ
b
i
u
e
−
u
d
u
=
1
λ
[
(
λ
a
i
+
1
)
e
−
λ
a
i
−
(
λ
b
i
+
1
)
e
−
λ
b
i
]
=
q
i
+
p
i
λ
.
\int_{a_i}^{b_i}{\lambda xe^{-\lambda x}dx}=\frac{1}{\lambda}\int_{\lambda a_i}^{\lambda b_i}{ue^{-u}du}=\frac{1}{\lambda}\left[ \left( \lambda a_i+1 \right) e^{-\lambda a_i}-\left( \lambda b_i+1 \right) e^{-\lambda b_i} \right] =q_i+\frac{p_i}{\lambda}.
∫aibiλxe−λxdx=λ1∫λaiλbiue−udu=λ1[(λai+1)e−λai−(λbi+1)e−λbi]=qi+λpi.
同理用
E
[
x
i
I
{
x
∉
(
a
i
,
b
i
)
}
]
=
E
[
x
i
]
−
E
[
x
i
I
{
x
i
∈
(
a
i
,
b
i
)
}
]
E[x_iI_{\{x\notin (a_i,b_i)\}}]=E[x_i]-E[x_iI_{\{x_i\in(a_i,b_i)\}}]
E[xiI{x∈/(ai,bi)}]=E[xi]−E[xiI{xi∈(ai,bi)}], 有
E
[
x
i
∣
A
i
=
0
]
=
1
−
p
i
λ
−
q
i
1
−
p
i
=
1
λ
−
q
i
1
−
p
i
.
E\left[ x_i\mid A_i=0 \right] =\frac{\frac{1-p_i}{\lambda}-q_i}{1-p_i}=\frac{1}{\lambda}-\frac{q_i}{1-p_i}.
E[xi∣Ai=0]=1−piλ1−pi−qi=λ1−1−piqi.
因此有 E 步是:
Q
(
λ
∣
λ
k
)
=
E
[
ℓ
X
(
λ
)
∣
A
,
λ
k
]
=
n
ln
λ
−
λ
∑
i
=
1
n
E
[
x
i
∣
A
i
,
λ
k
]
=
n
ln
λ
−
λ
∑
i
=
1
n
(
1
λ
k
+
q
i
(
λ
k
)
(
A
i
p
i
(
λ
k
)
−
1
−
A
i
1
−
p
i
(
λ
k
)
)
)
=
n
ln
λ
−
n
λ
λ
k
−
λ
∑
i
=
1
n
q
i
(
λ
k
)
A
i
−
p
i
(
λ
k
)
p
i
(
λ
k
)
(
1
−
p
i
(
λ
k
)
)
.
\begin{aligned} Q\left( \lambda |\lambda _k \right) &=E\left[ \ell _X\left( \lambda \right) |A,\lambda _k \right]\\ &=n\ln \lambda -\lambda \sum_{i=1}^n{E\left[ x_i\mid A_i,\lambda _k \right]}\\ &=n\ln \lambda -\lambda \sum_{i=1}^n{\left( \frac{1}{\lambda _k}+q_i\left( \lambda _k \right) \left( \frac{A_i}{p_i\left( \lambda _k \right)}-\frac{1-A_i}{1-p_i\left( \lambda _k \right)} \right) \right)}\\ &=n\ln \lambda -\frac{n\lambda}{\lambda _k}-\lambda \sum_{i=1}^n{q_i\left( \lambda _k \right)}\frac{A_i-p_i\left( \lambda _k \right)}{p_i\left( \lambda _k \right) \left( 1-p_i\left( \lambda _k \right) \right)}.\\ \end{aligned}
Q(λ∣λk)=E[ℓX(λ)∣A,λk]=nlnλ−λi=1∑nE[xi∣Ai,λk]=nlnλ−λi=1∑n(λk1+qi(λk)(pi(λk)Ai−1−pi(λk)1−Ai))=nlnλ−λknλ−λi=1∑nqi(λk)pi(λk)(1−pi(λk))Ai−pi(λk).
再考虑 M 步: 对
Q
(
λ
∣
λ
k
)
Q(\lambda|\lambda_k)
Q(λ∣λk) 求极大化(注意
λ
k
\lambda_k
λk 是常数, 只有
λ
\lambda
λ 是变量), 可以求导得
∂
Q
∂
λ
=
n
λ
−
n
λ
k
−
∑
i
=
1
n
q
i
(
λ
k
)
A
i
−
p
i
(
λ
k
)
p
i
(
λ
k
)
(
1
−
p
i
(
λ
k
)
)
,
\frac{\partial Q}{\partial \lambda}=\frac{n}{\lambda}-\frac{n}{\lambda _k}-\sum_{i=1}^n{q_i\left( \lambda _k \right)}\frac{A_i-p_i\left( \lambda _k \right)}{p_i\left( \lambda _k \right) \left( 1-p_i\left( \lambda _k \right) \right)},
∂λ∂Q=λn−λkn−i=1∑nqi(λk)pi(λk)(1−pi(λk))Ai−pi(λk),
解得极值点满足
1
λ
=
1
λ
k
+
1
n
∑
i
=
1
n
q
i
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λ
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A
i
−
p
i
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p
i
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(
1
−
p
i
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λ
k
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)
,
\frac{1}{\lambda}=\frac{1}{\lambda _k}+\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^n{q_i\left( \lambda _k \right)}\frac{A_i-p_i\left( \lambda _k \right)}{p_i\left( \lambda _k \right) \left( 1-p_i\left( \lambda _k \right) \right)},
λ1=λk1+n1i=1∑nqi(λk)pi(λk)(1−pi(λk))Ai−pi(λk),
故有
λ
k
+
1
=
1
1
λ
k
+
1
n
∑
i
=
1
n
q
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λ
k
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A
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−
p
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p
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1
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.
\lambda _{k+1}=\frac{1}{\frac{1}{\lambda _k}+\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^n{q_i\left( \lambda _k \right)}\frac{A_i-p_i\left( \lambda _k \right)}{p_i\left( \lambda _k \right) \left( 1-p_i\left( \lambda _k \right) \right)}}.
λk+1=λk1+n1∑i=1nqi(λk)pi(λk)(1−pi(λk))Ai−pi(λk)1.
(4) 该序列满足
1
λ
k
+
1
=
1
λ
k
+
1
n
∑
i
=
1
n
q
i
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λ
k
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A
i
−
p
i
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p
i
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λ
k
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(
1
−
p
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k
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)
,
\frac{1}{\lambda _{k+1}}= \frac{1}{\lambda_k} + \frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^n{q_i\left( \lambda _k \right)}\frac{A_i-p_i\left( \lambda _k \right)}{p_i\left( \lambda _k \right) \left( 1-p_i\left( \lambda _k \right) \right)},
λk+11=λk1+n1i=1∑nqi(λk)pi(λk)(1−pi(λk))Ai−pi(λk),
记
D
(
λ
k
)
=
−
∑
i
=
1
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q
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k
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A
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−
p
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p
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k
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1
−
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)
D(\lambda_k) =- \sum_{i=1}^n{q_i\left( \lambda _k \right)}\frac{A_i-p_i\left( \lambda _k \right)}{p_i\left( \lambda _k \right) \left( 1-p_i\left( \lambda _k \right) \right)}
D(λk)=−∑i=1nqi(λk)pi(λk)(1−pi(λk))Ai−pi(λk), 这恰好是
ℓ
A
\ell_A
ℓA 在
λ
k
\lambda_k
λk 点的导数, 而
1
λ
k
+
1
=
1
λ
k
−
1
n
⋅
D
(
λ
k
)
,
\frac{1}{\lambda_{k+1}} = \frac{1}{\lambda_k} - \frac{1}{n} \cdot D(\lambda_k),
λk+11=λk1−n1⋅D(λk),
该序列保证了
λ
k
\lambda_k
λk 在导数的同方向迭代, 即保证了函数值
ℓ
A
\ell_A
ℓA 的上升, 因此
{
λ
n
}
\{\lambda_n\}
{λn} 一定收敛到
ℓ
A
\ell_A
ℓA 的某个驻点, 即导数为 0 的点, 即
λ
^
\hat{\lambda}
λ^.