意见 (Opinion)
I heard many businessmen told me: “Software? Just tools. Developers? Just a commodity”. At the same time, most companies pay developers like rockstars. What is the truth? In this article, I will explain and comment with data on the evolution of the developers’ job market. After 15 years of experience in the IT field, initially as a developer and then as a manager, I will try to tell both sides of the story. We will learn how to understand this evolution in 5 simple points.
我听到许多商人告诉我：“软件？ 只是工具。 开发人员？ 只是一种商品”。 同时，大多数公司都向摇滚明星之类的开发商付款。 真相是什么？ 在本文中，我将对开发人员的就业市场发展的数据进行解释和评论。 在IT领域拥有15年的经验之后，最初是作为开发人员，然后是经理，我将尽力讲述两个故事。 我们将通过5个简单的点来学习如何理解这种演变。
商品是什么意思？ (What does it mean commodity?)
During my past near the customer, I heard too many times a sentence like “I don’t mind how do you do, just do it” or “I’m not a technician, I don’t want to understand.” I am not sure when people in business lose interest in how they spend their money. It is like you are building a house, go to the architect and tell him, “I don’t mind how many rooms you will put inside, just build it.” I understand that for a non-technical is not easy to communicate with technicians (and especially if the technician is a developer), but there is a minimum level of knowledge that each one should know to make things work.
在客户附近的过去，我听过很多次这样的句子：“我不介意您怎么做，只是去做”或“我不是技术人员，我不想理解”。 我不确定企业界人士何时会对他们的消费方式失去兴趣。 就像您要盖房子，去找建筑师，告诉他：“我不介意您要放多少间房间，只需盖房子即可。” 我知道，对于非技术人员而言，与技术人员进行交流并不容易(尤其是如果技术人员是开发人员)，但是每个人都应该具备使工作正常的最低限度的知识。
We can ignore wich mixture of cement will be used for our house pillar, trusting engineers, but we need to know how many rooms or floors we will have in the house.
值得信赖的工程师们，我们可以忽略水泥的混合物将用于房屋Struts，但是我们需要知道房屋中将有多少间房间或地板。
All this story for telling there are commodities and commodities, so, what is the meaning of commodity? Probably, understanding well what a developer does, we can answer. A car is a different commodity then toothpaste. I consider something a commodity when I can change it or supplier with no effort and consequences.
所有这些故事都告诉我们有商品和商品，那么，商品的含义是什么？ 大概了解了开发人员的工作后，我们就可以回答。 汽车和牙膏是另一种商品。 当我可以毫不费力和后果地更改商品或供应商时，我认为商品是商品。
Try to change developer in a project running, and you will discover which is the cost of thinking that people are just a commodity.
尝试在正在运行的项目中更改开发人员，您将发现认为人们只是一种商品而付出的代价。
为什么市场需要更多开发商？ (Why the market needs more developers?)
Companies that produce software need developers as they are the main resource for completing the product. In other industries, they need to innovate the enterprise, so they run IT projects, and developers have a central role in such projects. From the Chuck Alexander study, an IT project can last from 30 to 60 months. It means about 2.5–5.0 years. Each company starts many projects per year. So, it is a big demand. Then most companies agree that producing software is not their core business, so they delegate part of the project in outsourcing and rent people from consultancy companies or freelances. Well, it’s easy to understand why having such big demand with a limited supply salary is growing and find the right specialist is harder than in the past.
生产软件的公司需要开发人员，因为他们是完成产品的主要资源。 在其他行业中，他们需要创新企业，因此他们运行IT项目，而开发人员在此类项目中扮演着中心角色。 根据Chuck Alexander的研究，一个IT项目可以持续30到60个月。 这意味着大约2.5-5.0年。 每个公司每年都会启动许多项目。 因此，这是一个很大的需求。 然后，大多数公司都认为生产软件不是他们的核心业务，因此他们将项目的一部分委托外包，并从咨询公司或自由职业者那里租人。 好吧，很容易理解为什么为什么如此庞大的需求和有限的供应薪水会不断增长，而找到合适的专家却比以往更加困难。
工资上涨 (The salary rise)
According to the research, junior developers expected a rise in their salary of 4.3% in 20017, skilled developer the 4.5%. If each year we will have this increment, after about 15 years we will double the pay.
根据研究，初级开发人员期望在20017年将其工资提高4.3％，熟练开发人员将提高4.5％。 如果每年我们都有这个增量，那么大约15年后，我们的工资将增加一倍。
That’s open some big questions:
这带来了一些大问题：
What for already employ people? They are not stupid, so they will ask for an increase, and they may move to another company. This will translate to more costs for the turnover (people will move) or higher costs for the company.
对于已经雇用的人呢？ 他们并不愚蠢，所以他们会要求加薪，并可能会搬到另一家公司。 这将转化为更高的营业额成本(人员流动)或更高的公司成本。
The productivity of developers is growing accordingly to the salary? If not, the rise of the salary will impact on profits of the companies. A business model where an employer produces less than what they get from the company is not sustainable.
开发人员的生产力是否随着薪水而增长？ 如果没有，工资的上涨将影响公司的利润。 雇主生产的产品少于他们从公司获得的产品的商业模式是不可持续的。
Will developers be able to keep updated until retirements on new technologies? In other words, will they collect their payday? We pay a lot to get the best professional on technology, but what if the technology he dominates will become obsolete, or the person will stop to keep updater? The value of their work will be less than what we need to balance our outcome.
开发人员是否能够保持更新，直到新技术退役？ 换句话说，他们会收取发薪日吗？ 我们要花很多钱才能得到最好的技术专家，但是如果他主导的技术过时了，或者该人停下来保留更新程序怎么办？ 他们工作的价值将小于我们平衡成果所需要的价值。
开发人员薪水的关键因素 (The key factor about developers salary)
The developer is one of the most challenging jobs and requires high skill, constant learning, and experience. This explains why it is very well paid in most of the countries. 74% of the professionals interviewed by GitHub during the 2020 survey reveal that they have a degree. That’s a very big percentage, comparing with other technical jobs. According to the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, the average in the USA is 73K$ in May 2019. Starting from this good point, we also have some additional key factor that can define some extra revenue for such professionals:
开发人员是最具挑战性的工作之一，需要高技能，不断学习和丰富经验。 这就解释了为什么在大多数国家中它的收入很高。 GitHub在2020年调查中采访的专业人士中有74％透露他们拥有学位。 与其他技术工作相比，这是一个很大的百分比。 根据美国劳工统计局的数据，2019年5月美国的平均收入为7.3万美元。从这个好的角度出发，我们还有一些其他关键因素可以为此类专业人员定义一些额外的收入：
Geography. From country to country, the pay varies a lot, but just focusing on the US market, we have a spread of 50K according to the Indeed report (most paid San Francisco with 150K$ per year).
地理 。 根据国家/地区的不同，薪水相差很大，但是根据Indeed报告(仅以美国市场为例)，我们的点差就达到了5万美元(旧金山的大部分人每年的薪水为15万美元)。
Experience. The more you know, the more you value on the market.
经验丰富 。 您了解的越多，您在市场上的价值就越高。
Technology. Not all the technologies employed by dev have the same value. In this field, the supply\domand principle rules, so we have ancient and unproductive technologies (like COBOL) or new and unknown frameworks, where we have few programmers available, and prices rise. We have seen the rush for hiring expert frontend and DevOps professionals, in the past few years.
技术 。 开发人员使用的并非所有技术都具有相同的价值。 在这个领域中，供应\主导原则是有规律的，因此我们拥有过时的，非生产性的技术(例如COBOL)或新的和未知的框架，在这里，可用的程序员很少，而且价格上涨。 在过去的几年中，我们看到了急于聘请专家前端和DevOps专业人员的渴望。
工资急涨的风险 (The risk of the salary rush)
Until the IT market grows, we will still see the professional developer figure as important in our innovation plan. The rush for finding the best developers in the market creates new job places and power salaries. We love this growth phase, but there is some hidden risk to take into account (as a businessman and as a developer):
在IT市场发展之前，我们仍然会认为专业开发人员在我们的创新计划中至关重要。 急于寻找市场上最好的开发商会创造新的工作岗位和权力薪水。 我们喜欢这个成长阶段，但是(作为商人和开发商)存在一些潜在的隐患需要考虑：
Salary cannot grow forever. At that point, we will have more developers that what we need, and the unemployed developers will accept lower salaries. Before getting this point, just think about the final price of the developer’s work. Their cost reflects the final price of the product, which can be a big percentage in some scenarios, like selling a website. There will be a time when the businessman will have to stop increasing price (or reducing profit to keep the same price), and this will force to stop also the developer’s salary cost.
工资不可能永远增长。 届时，我们将拥有更多所需的开发人员，而失业的开发人员将接受较低的薪水。 在得出这一点之前，只需考虑一下开发商作品的最终价格。 它们的成本反映了产品的最终价格，在某些情况下(例如出售网站)，价格可能占很大比例。 有时候，商人将不得不停止提高价格(或减少利润以保持相同的价格)，这将迫使开发商也停止支付工资。
You cannot learn forever. Technologies will change forever; a person will need to learn forever. This is easy to say but hard to make in the real world. For an 8/5 employee, maybe with 1 or 2 hours of commutation per day, it’s hard to find time for training.
你不可能永远学习。 技术将永远改变； 一个人将需要永远学习。 这很容易说，但在现实世界中很难做到。 对于一个8/5的员工，也许每天要通勤1或2个小时，很难找到时间进行培训。
Technologies are volatile. It happens that some technology where you invested a lot of time and most of your working life will be the end of life or overcome by something completely new. It happened when web development wipes out desktop development, for example.
技术是易变的。 碰巧，您花费大量时间和大部分工作寿命的某些技术将寿终正寝，或者被全新的东西所克服。 例如，当Web开发消除了桌面开发时就发生了。
Innovation can be disruptive. We have seen the progress of Artificial Intelligence in the last years. Well, we are going to see something similar to what happened in the last century with machinery. Machinery does the job of workers; new technology will speed up the software building market, making them fewer people-intensive. I’m not speaking about tomorrow or next year. But technology is growing inexorably, so there will be a time when this will happen. At that time, only the very skilled developers will be able to stay on track.
创新可能会造成破坏。 我们已经看到了人工智能在过去几年中的进步。 好吧，我们将看到类似于上世纪机械时代的情况。 机械做工人的工作； 新技术将加速软件构建市场，从而减少人们的密集度。 我不是在谈论明天或明年。 但是技术发展势不可挡，因此有时会发生这种情况。 到那时，只有非常熟练的开发人员才能继续前进。
带什么回家 (What to take home)
The growth of IT projects is doping the developer market, increasing salary with a trend that is not sustainable in the long term. We need to find a way to keep this salary increase possible by increasing the value of the output. This is possible by giving priority to product development, even semi-finished products that can be reused, technology innovation, and improving organization to avoid waste of time.
IT项目的增长正在充斥开发人员市场，增加了薪资，这种趋势在长期内是不可持续的。 我们需要找到一种方法，通过增加产出的价值来保持这种加薪的可能。 通过优先考虑产品开发，甚至可以重复使用的半成品，技术创新以及改善组织以避免浪费时间，这是可能的。
Developers cannot stop learning and need to jump from one technology to the next one, until retirement or promotion to another role. Each person in business needs to leave them enough time for training and learning.
开发人员无法停止学习，需要从一种技术过渡到另一种技术，直到退休或晋升为另一种角色为止。 每个业务人员都需要给他们足够的时间进行培训和学习。
Otherwise, in the near future, we will have a lot of expert employees that won't be profitable.
否则，在不久的将来，我们将有很多无法盈利的专业员工。
资源资源 (Resources)
https://www.computerweekly.com/news/450412131/Junior-developers-to-see-43-pay-rise-in-2017
https://www.computerweekly.com/news/450412131/Junior-developers-to-see-43-pay-rise-in-2017
https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/web-developers.htm
https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/web-developers.htm
翻译自: https://towardsdatascience.com/are-developers-commodities-or-rockstars-41b22dffcc5
1436
被折叠的 条评论
为什么被折叠?
到【灌水乐园】发言
