50个认知偏误：Elon Musk thinks everyone should know about

If we determine that something is worth remembering, we move it from our short-term memory into our long-term memory. However, we don’t move it there perfectly.

Memory retrieval is another piece of the memory puzzle that causes more room for error.

Each time we “remember” something we’re actually creating a totally new version of that memory in our minds.

We don’t “retrieve” a memory from a stored database, we’re actually recreating the sensory feelings of that memory.

当我们觉得某件事情值得记住时，会将它从短期记忆区挪到长期记忆区。但是，这种挪动不会很完美。记忆恢复是另一个跟记忆相关的谜团，它也回到导致错误发生的空间。每次我们“记起”某事时，实际上我们在大脑中创造了该记忆的一个全新的版本。我们并不是（像计算机那样）从存储数据库中恢复了所记忆的信息，而是重新创造了关于该记忆信息的感官体验。

Social based cognitive bias comes from socializing with others. Social pressure is the main source of social based cognitive bias. Social pressure can compel someone to go out for food with friends even though they might not be hungry.

社交认知偏误发生于社交关系中，其主要来源是社交压力。比如说，社交压力会迫使一个人即便在自己并不饿的时候，也会出去和朋友一起聚餐。

1.3. Learning Based Cognitive Bias：基于学习的认知偏误

Learning based cognitive biases come from things we’ve learned or haven’t learned.These could be things that we’ve learned to be true that aren’t true or things we’ve learned to be false that aren’t false.Learning based cognitive biases can most easily be overcome through education.

学习认知偏误来源于我们学过的或者还没学过的东西，可能是我们学习过并认为是真的但是事实上不是真的，或者我们学习过并认为是假的但是事实上不是假的。学习认知偏误大部分可以通过教育进行克服。

1.4. Belief Based Cognitive Bias：基于信念的认知偏误

Belief based cognitive biases are centered around belief or faith.These are things that we believe to be true, and these beliefs may or may not be rooted in reality.

顾名思义，这是关于信念或者信仰的认知偏误。有些事情我们相信是真的，但是这种信念可能是尤其现实的依据，也可能没有。

1.5. Money Based Cognitive Bias：基于财富的认知偏误

Did you know that the number one predictor of crime rate is the wealth differential in a neighborhood?

Money based cognitive biases make us think that people who have excessive money have everything.

However money isnt everything and in fact Elon Musk has said “I could care less about money.“

你知道关于犯罪率的No.1的预测因子是社区的贫富级差吗？

基于财富的认知偏误使得我们认为拥有超量财富的人拥有一切。然而，财富其实并不意味着一切。实际上，埃隆马斯克说过“I could care less about money.“

1.6. Politically Based Cognitive Bias：基于政治的认知偏误

Politically based cognitive biases are based around politics in the broad sense.Not simply politics like Republicans and Democrats.

Politics an in the interactions of groups trying to achieve power in a certain area.

Politics is the arena of projection and persuasion.

这里所说的政治是广义意义上的政治，并不只是共和党和民主党。广义的政治是关于通过群体中的交互在一定领域中获取权力的事情。政治是（比如说观念的？）投射和游说的竞技场。

2. 50种认知偏误

2.1 Fundamental Attribution Error：基本归因错误

When someone else is late, it’s because they’re lazy.When you’re late, it was the traffic.

人们总习惯于将别人的错误归因于内在的原因，而将自己的错误则归因于外在的原因。或者说人们倾向于严于待人宽以律己。比如说，别人迟到了那是因为TA太懒，自己迟到了则是因为交通阻塞。

2.2 Self-Serving Bias：自利偏误

Attributing all your successes to skill, and largely due to your involvement. And all your screw ups are due to bad luck or a bad situation, and are not your fault.

别人成功了是因为运气好，自己成功了则是因为因为自己是个天才。等等等等。别人搞砸了那是因为TA能力不行，自己搞砸了只是因为运气差或者客观条件不足（自己只是难以力挽狂澜而已）。

2.3 In-Group Favoritism：组内偏爱

We tend to favor those in our in-group versus those who are different from us.

我们偏爱同一个圈子的圈内人，而不是圈外人。

2.4 Bandwagon Effect Bias：从众效应偏误

Everyone likes to jump on a trendy bandwagon. Ideas, fads and beliefs grow in influence as more people “hop on the bandwagon” and adopt them.

每个人都喜欢跟随潮流。观念、时尚和信念的影响力会随着跟随着变多而得到增强。由此形成“正向(but somehow vicious)”循环。

2.5 Groupthink Bias：群体思维偏误

Groupthink bias is what it sounds like: Group Thinking. Going along with the group to avoid conflict.

为了保持团队一致与和谐的目的，人们倾向于会为了减少冲突去做一些不合理（比如说和稀泥）的决定。

2.6 Halo Effect：光环效应

Assuming a person has other positive traits because you observed they have one.

Just because someone is confident or beautiful doesn’t mean they are also smart or nice, for example.

人们容易将某人具有的某一方面的优点进行（过度的）外推。这个人这么自信和漂亮，那TA肯定也很聪明和善吧。。。Really？其实自信漂亮与聪明和善是没有什么关系的。

2.7 Moral Luck：道德运气

Assuming winners are morally superior.

人们容易假定比赛或者竞争的赢家具有更高尚的品德。

殊不知现实世界可能恰好相反，历史上，先进文明往往被落后的野蛮文明的例子屡见不鲜。

2.8 False Consensus：虚假共识

Thinking most people agree with you even when that’s not the case.

人们容易过度臆想自己的观点的受欢迎（受赞同）的程度。其他人肯定也都是这么想的！其实并不是，甚至可能正相反。

2.10 Curse of Knowledge：知识的诅咒

Assuming everyone else knows what you know once you’ve learned something.

一旦我们知道了某件事，我们就会假设其他人也同样知道这件事。

一旦你知道了（学会了）某件事（某种知识），容易假设别人也同样知道（或理解）这件事（这个知识）。中国的家长在辅导孩子家庭作业时最喜欢的台词就是“你连这个都不知道！”^-^。又例，所谓饱汉不知饿汉饥。

2.11 Availability Heuristic Bias：可获性启发式偏误

People make judgments based on how easy it is to call an example to mind.

For example: This is part of the reason why people often worry more about rare airplane crashes than far more commonly occuring road accidents.

According to PBS the annual risk of being killed in a plane crash for the average American is about 1 in 11,000,000.

Whereas the odds of dying in a car crash are 1 in 107.

Plane crashes often get widespread news attention.

The example given in the video is how many people think terrorism is the #1 threat to Americans, when in fact 55 times more people die per year from TV’s falling on them.

我们在做判断时，通常都依赖于当下脑海中最容易出现的直观例子。

人们通常对飞机事实的恐惧和担忧高于汽车出事的恐惧和担忧。原因在于飞机出事的事情会得到广泛报道，比如说马航失联路人皆知。而汽车交通事故天天发生反而司空见惯。因此在做坐飞机还是开车更危险的判断时，我们脑海中更容易立即冒出马航的例子，而关于汽车事故的例子则反而什么也想不起来，由此就会做出错误的判断。

有人曾说，乘飞机出行的确危险，但是危险的部分不是在空中，而是乘车往返机场的那部分。

2.12 Defensive Attribution：防御性归因

Getting more upset at someone who commits a crime we feel we could have fallen victim to ourselves.

如果某人所犯的错误或罪行是我们自己也很容易称为受害者的那种，我们会对犯错（罪）者更加生气。比如说，幼儿园发生了校外人员入侵伤害事件，有宝宝在同一幼儿园的父母会比其他人对犯罪者以及幼儿园安保负责人更加愤怒。又比如，某人开车由于用手机打电话导致被后车追尾，虽然该人应该负主责，但是在一个也是喜欢来车用手机的旁观者来看，他会觉得后面那个追尾者要负更大的责任。

2.13 Just-World Hypothesis：公正世界假说

The tendency to believe the world is just, so any observed injustice was really deserved.

人们倾向于相信世界是公正的，所以，就容易相信任何不公正的事总是有原因的。

比如说一个臭名昭著的坏蛋有一天被车撞了，人们拍手称快认为这是善恶终有报。殊不知那天可能是这个坏蛋从车轮下挽救了两个小学生的性命。

2.14 Naive Realism：朴素现实主义

Thinking we have a better grasp of reality than everyone else.

相信自己比别人更好的掌握了客观现实。自己对世界的看法是客观的，别人是不知情、不理性或者有偏见的。

2.15 Naive Cynicism：朴素犬儒主义

Believe that what they observe is objective facts, and others have more self-centered prejudices than they actually show.

Thinking everyone else is just selfishly out for themselves.

相信自己观察到的是客观事实，而其他人则比他们看上的要更加自我中心主义。

相信别人的行为一定有TA自私的目的。比如说，这人对我这么好，肯定是想从我这⾥得到点什么。

2.16 Forer Effect (aka Barnum Effect)福勒效应（又名巴纳姆效应）

It's easy to attribute our personalities to vague statements, even if they apply to a wider range of people.

The bias behind the appeal of astrology. We see vague statements as applying specifically to us even when they apply to most everybody.

占星学背后的的偏误（理论依据）。看到星相描述或者抽签上的话语（尤其是好话）自觉非常适合于自己，简直就是为自己量身定制的，星相学真实太准了！。。。孰不知同样的描述同样适用于其TA数以万计的普通人！

2.17 Dunning Kruger Effect：邓宁克鲁格效应

The less you know, the more confident you are. The more you know, the less confident you are.

This principle states that the less competent you are, the more confident you’re likely to be because you’re too incompetent to understand exactly how bad you are.

The opposite is also true — those with greater skills are often plagued with doubt.

知道的越少就越自信。知道的越多就越不自信。

能力越低的人就越容易自信，因为TA能力低到无法正确地评估自己的实力。

我有很多的短板，但是我不知道有多少，因为数学是其中之一（数学差到数不清自己有多少短板）^-^

2.18 Anchoring Bias：锚定偏误

We rely heavily on the information we see at first sight when making decisions.

The way in which the first piece of information we hear tends to influence the terms or framing of an entire discussion.For example, the first price we see for a vehicle creates a bias towards what a vehicle should cost, and this will influence our opinion of future prices of the vehicle we might see.

我们在做决定时非常依赖第一眼看到的信息。

如果第一次去看房的时候它标价10万每平米，可能觉得非常贵。但是第二次去看的时，发现下调到8万每平米了，虽然仍然远高于同地区房产平均价格，但是仍然会觉得太便宜了，买到就是赚到，不买简直亏大发了。

有教授在课堂上做过一个实验，让学生给出一瓶葡萄酒的估价。学生分为两组，其中A组在测试之前先看了一个纸板上写了一个较大的数字，B组在测试之前先看了一个纸板上写了一个较小的数字。然后发现A组同学给出的平均估价远高于B组同学给出的平均估价。

2.19 Automation Bias: 自动化偏差

We rely on automated systems and sometimes believe too much, leading to the abandonment of really right decisions.

过度依赖自动化系统，有时甚至因为过于相信（自动化系统的权威），而导致放弃真正正确的决策。

2.20 Google Effect (aka Digital Amnesia)：谷歌效应（数码健忘症）

You’re more likely to forget it if you can just Google it.

你知道一个信息能够从互联网上查到，就更容易记不住它（大脑选择性地不记忆它？）

2.21 Reactance：逆反效应

When we are restricted, we will be unhappy, so we will make some acts of resistance to release our emotions.

Doing the opposite of what you’re told when you feel bullied or backed into a corner.

当⾃由受到限制时，我们会产生不快，所以会做出一些反抗的行为来释放情绪。家有（熊孩子级）神兽的父母估计对此是有痛彻心扉体会的。

2.22 Confirmation Bias：确认偏误

We tend to look for and be more easily convinced by information that confirms our existing beliefs.

Additionally part of this bias is the tendancy to seek out information that disproves beliefs we oppose.

This bias is quite common and can be very dangerous when our beliefs are potentially harmful.

我们倾向于寻找并记住能证实自己信念的信息或证据，而忽略那些不支持自己信念的信息或证据。

阴谋论流行的背后就有这个确认偏误的力量。不同宗教或者不同价值观的人们之间的争论也大抵如此。

2.23 Backfire Effect：逆火效应

When a person's wrong cognition is overturned by new information, the new information is inconsistent with the person's original view, which will deepen people's trust in the original wrong cognition.

Repeatedly mentioning a false belief to disprove it sometimes ends up just making people believe it more.

反复地提及一个错误的信念并证伪它，很多时候反而使得这个错误信念的信徒更加相信它是真的。

一个阴谋开始传播后，最好的办法往往是置之不理，让其自生自灭。期望很快地强行地清除它，反而会让那些本来摇摆不定的人更加确信这个阴谋是真的。

2.24 Third-Person Effect：第三人称效应

The belief that others are more affected by a common phenomenon than you are.

We will think that the media has a greater impact on others than ourselves.

我们会认为媒体对他人的影响比对我们自己更大。

我们通常会认为别人被媒体洗脑了，孰不知自己难道不是也被洗脑了，或者甚至被洗的更严重？

2.25 Belief Bias：信念偏误

Judging an argument not on its own merits but by how plausible we think its conclusion is.

We judge the quantity of an argument not by the strength of its support for the conclusion, but by the credibility of our own conclusion.

我们判断一个论点的⼒量，不是根据它对结论的支持力度，而是反过来根据我们自己对结论成立的信念。如果我们不相信一个结论，就不会相信支持该结论的论点；反之，如果我们强烈支持该结论，就会附带支持为该结论提供支持的论点。

2.26 Availability Cascade：可获性级联放大效应

The more people believe (and talk about) something the more likely we are to think it’s true.

相信和谈论某件事情的人越多，我们就越容易相信它是真的。

所谓谎言重复了一千遍就成了真理。媒体的力量在现代社会达到了前所未有的强度。

2.27 Declinism：衰退主义

We tend to romanticize the past and look negatively at the future, believing that society / institutions are generally declining.

Romanticizing the past and thinking we live in an age of decline.

美化过去，消极地看待未来，认为社会正在衰退。

所谓世风日下人心不古。所谓一代不如一代。所谓言必称三代之治。日语中的“古き良き時代”，等等。。。都是同样的道理。

2.28 Status Quo Bias：现状偏误

People tend to like things to stay the same, even if change would be beneficial.

We tend to stay the same, and even favorable changes are considered a loss

人们倾向于保持现状不变，即使在做出变化更有利的时候也拒绝改变。

2.29 Sunk Cost Fallacy：沉没成本谬误

(AKA Escalation of Commitment)也称为承诺升级

Throwing good money (or effort) after bad to avoid facing up to a loss.

Even in the face of failure, people will continue to invest in this doomed thing because of their early investment.

即使面临失败的结果，人们会因为前期的投入，会在注定失败的事情上继续投入。这导致人们在当前时间节点的决策难以摆脱既往投入的影响，不肯把过去的投入当作沉没成本来处理。容易导致越陷越深知道无法脱身的困境。

2.30 Gambler’s Fallacy：赌徒谬误

Thinking future probabilities are affected by past events.

认为某个事件未来的可能性会受到过去事件的影响。

连押九次都输了，这第十次赢定了吧！可是骰子并不知道这次跟之前九次有什么关系。它只是一个骰子而已，它只有当前这一次。

2.31 Zero-Risk Bias：零风险偏误

We prefer to reduce small risks to zero, even if we can reduce the overall risk through another option.

我们更愿意将小风险降低到零，即使我们可以通过另一种选择来将整体风险降低一大截。孰不知绝对的零风险正是最大的风险，免费的才是最贵的。

2.32 Framing Effect：框架效应

Drawing different conclusions from the same information depending on how it’s framed.

针对相同的信息，采用不同的描述方式，会得到完全不同的结论。

最有名的莫过于“屡战屡败”和“屡败屡战”的故事了。

2.33 Stereotyping：脸谱化效应

We tends to believe that although there is no information about individuals, members of a group will have some of the same characteristics.

人们倾向于认为，尽管没有关于个人的信息，但一个群体的成员具有某些相同的特征。

2.34 Outgroup Homogeneity Bias：圈外人同质性偏误

Seeing the diversity within the groups to which you belong but imagining people in groups to which you don’t belong are all alike.

人们认为圈外人千篇一律，而自己圈子里的人各个不同。

正如西方人看亚洲人都长的一个样，中国人看北欧人都长得一个样^-^？

2.35 Authority Bias：权威偏误

Putting too much stock in authority figures.

过度相信权威。在权威面前失去了自己独立思考的能力。

2.36 Placebo Effect Bias：安慰剂效应偏误

If you think something will work, you’re likely to experience a positive effect whether it really does or not.

如果你认为某件事情有作用，那么不管它有没有作用，你都更可能体验到正向的效果。

2.37 Survivorship Bias：幸存者偏误

We remember the winners and forget about the many, invisible losers.

我们容易记住胜利者，但是忘记更多的（看不到的）失败者。

有一个故事讲二战期间军方找科学家来研究如何对飞机进行加装装甲提高生存率。能够加装的装甲的重量受限，所以关键是考虑将装甲加在那个部位最有效。军方的意见是应该加在机翼部分，因为他们看到所有的飞机在机翼部分都是弹痕累累。而科学家坚持应该加在发动机和油箱部分，虽然所有战斗返航的飞机的发动机和油箱部分很少有弹痕。科学家的解释是，那些发动机和油箱部中弹的战斗机都坠毁了，而机翼部分中弹后却依然可以坚持到返航，所以显然，发动机和油箱部分远比机翼部分要脆弱得多。这一部分的事实不为人所知，也称为“沉默的事实”。