后大流行时代的指数技术

This article was originally published in Forbes Middle East.

本文最初发表于 《福布斯》中东地区。

For most of human history, progress has been linear. Trade and globalization were limited by distance. New inventions took decades to evolve. But with the onset of the 20th century, the path of mankind’s progress changed. We now live in an exponential era, in which industries are constantly on the brink of disruption.

在人类的大多数历史中，进步都是线性的。 贸易和全球化受到距离的限制。 新发明花了数十年的时间发展。 但是随着20世纪的到来，人类进步的道路发生了变化。 我们现在生活在一个指数时代，在这个时代，各行业一直处于崩溃的边缘。

But what exactly does “exponential” mean? Envision this: If you take 30 linear steps, you’ll find yourself 30 meters forward. But if you take 30 exponential steps, you could be a billion meters away from your starting point.

但是“指数”到底是什么意思？ 设想一下：如果采取30个线性步长，您将发现自己向前30米。 但是，如果您采取30个指数级的步骤，则可能离起点十亿米。

Exponential figures are not intuitive to us. Trends in exponential growth are unpredictable; a technological innovation on the exponential curve may explode and spread like wildfire without any indication whatsoever. This means that the technology moves faster than society. It essentially signifies that technology stays ahead of us.

指数数字对我们而言并不直观。 指数增长的趋势是不可预测的。 指数曲线上的技术创新可能会像野火一样爆炸和扩散而没有任何迹象。 这意味着技术的发展比社会快。 从本质上讲，这表明技术始终领先于我们。

Exponential technologies that surround us today include 3D-printing, artificial intelligence (AI), augmented and virtual reality, digital biology, biotech, nanomedicine, computing systems, autonomous vehicles… and many more.

今天，我们周围的指数技术包括3D打印，人工智能(AI)，增强和虚拟现实，数字生物学，生物技术，纳米医学，计算系统，自动驾驶汽车等等。

Despite the remarkable progress we have made so far, the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the fact that much more needs to be done when it comes to leveraging exponential technologies to propel the human race forward.

尽管到目前为止我们已经取得了令人瞩目的进步，但COVID-19大流行还是凸显了一个事实，那就是在利用指数技术推动人类前进方面还需要做更多的工作。

So, going forward, how will exponential technologies impact our lives? How can we leverage the awe and scale of exponential technologies to build a better, more robust future? Here are three areas that have the potential to take the limelight:

那么，展望未来，指数技术将如何影响我们的生活？ 我们如何利用指数技术的威力和规模来构建更好，更强大的未来？ 以下是三个有可能成为众人瞩目的领域：

纳米技术与纳米医学 (Nanotechnology and nanomedicine)

Nanotechnology is the science of building and seeing things at the atomic or molecular level. To think about just how small things are at the nanoscale, consider the fact that a sheet of paper is about 100,000 nanometers thick. Because of their size, strength and scale, nanomaterials have turned out to be the next big thing in modern science.

纳米技术是在原子或分子水平上构建和观察事物的科学。 要想想纳米级的东西有多小，请考虑一张纸大约有100,000纳米厚的事实。 由于其尺寸，强度和规模，纳米材料已成为现代科学中的下一件大事。

“Nanobots” are molecules with a unique property that enables them to be programmed to carry out a specific task. With targeted nanomedicine therapies, doctors can make drugs reach exactly where they want them to inside the body. Nanotechnology has the potential to offer solutions for combating COVID-19. Nanoparticles could be successfully employed to eliminate the virus by confining and immobilizing the hosting cells without affecting the rest of the body.

“纳米机器人”是具有独特属性的分子，可对它们进行编程以执行特定任务。 通过有针对性的纳米药物疗法，医生可以使药物准确到达他们想要进入体内的任何位置。 纳米技术有潜力提供解决COVID-19的解决方案。 通过限制和固定宿主细胞而不影响身体的其他部分，纳米颗粒可以成功用于消除病毒。

Like other exponential technologies, nanotechnology has the potential to disrupt the entire medical and pharmaceutical industries. In a post-pandemic era, we might see an uptick in startups that are keen to deliver medical breakthroughs for the society by leveraging nanotechnology.

像其他指数技术一样，纳米技术也有可能破坏整个医疗和制药行业。 在大流行后的时代，我们可能会发现渴望利用纳米技术为社会带来医疗突破的初创公司数量有所增加。

虚拟和增强现实 (Virtual and Augmented Reality)

AR and VR have already become the tech buzzwords for our generation. These technologies are being deployed to enhance the experience of learners, gamers, and artists, to name a few. In a post-pandemic era, we can expect VR and AR to be paid more attention to by large corporations. After all, in a remote-working era, these technologies can revolutionize collaboration across networks.

AR和VR已经成为我们这一代人的技术流行语。 部署这些技术以增强学习者，游戏玩家和艺术家的体验，仅举几例。 在大流行后的时代，我们可以期望大型公司会更加关注VR和AR。 毕竟，在远程工作的时代，这些技术可以彻底改变跨网络的协作。

Currently, to make the VR experience more realistic, powerful AI companies are collaborating with existing VR platforms to design and build avatars that are lifelike counterparts of people.

当前，为了使VR体验更加逼真，强大的AI公司正在与现有的VR平台合作来设计和构建与人类逼真的虚拟角色。

In a pandemic-hit world where remote working is the norm, and where travel for business is deemed unnecessary, VR and AR tech can help people feel more connected to each other. Existing models could propel major firms to build VR “venues” that mimic office campuses, where individuals can log in and interact with one and other.

在一个大流行的世界中，远程工作已成为常态，而商务旅行被认为是不必要的，VR和AR技术可以帮助人们彼此之间建立更多的联系。 现有的模型可能会促使大型公司建立虚拟的“场所”，以模仿办公园区，个人可以在此登录并彼此交互。

量子技术 (Quantum technology)

Quantum technology is a paradigm-shifting approach to engineering. It leverages the properties of quantum mechanics for practical applications in computing, sensors, cryptography, and simulation. Quantum mechanics deals with things at the sub-atomic level.

量子技术是工程学的范式转变方法。 它充分利用了量子力学的特性，将其应用于计算，传感器，密码学和仿真的实际应用中。 量子力学在亚原子级处理事物。

Quantum computing has a wide range of applications. In medicine, quantum computers can model drug interactions for all 20,000-plus proteins. Quantum sensors can detect degenerative diseases, or even prevent natural disasters by detecting when a volcano might erupt.

量子计算具有广泛的应用。 在医学上，量子计算机可以为所有20,000多种蛋白质建立药物相互作用模型。 量子传感器可以检测出退化性疾病，甚至可以通过检测火山何时爆发来预防自然灾害。

These exponential technologies are poised to have profound implications for our lives. Like the life-altering technologies that marked and defined the onset of the 21st century, we can expect the latter half of this century to also see remarkable progress and inventions that propel humanity forward.

这些指数技术有望对我们的生活产生深远的影响。 就像标志着和定义21世纪开始的改变生活的技术一样，我们可以期望本世纪下半叶也将看到令人瞩目的进步和推动人类前进的发明。

In a post-pandemic era, the need to innovate could become even more prominent. Ultimately, the best way to predict your future is to create it.

在大流行后的时代，创新的需求可能变得更加突出。 最终，预测未来的最佳方法就是创造未来。

翻译自: https://medium.com/mapping-out-2050/exponential-technologies-in-a-post-pandemic-era-e3f4019c3ee2