论文速递 | Management Science2月文章精选

编者按

在本系列文章中，我们对顶刊《Management Science》于2月份发布的文章进行了精选并梳理（共15篇），涵盖金融、会计学、市场营销、行为经济学和决策分析、运营管理、信息系统、数据科学等领域研究成果，以及数字金融特刊。我们总结了论文基本信息，旨在帮助读者快速洞察行业最新动态。

推荐文章1

● 题目：Choose Your Battles Wisely: The Consequences of Protesting Government Procurement Contracts

明智地选择斗争：抗议政府采购合同的后果

● 原文链接：https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2021.02055

● 作者：Mehmet I. Canayaz, Jess Cornaggia, Kimberly Cornaggia

● 发布时间：2025-02-03

● 摘要：

We examine the relationship between a firm’s successful protest of a government agency’s conduct or terms of a procurement contract and the amount of business the firm conducts with the government going forward. We find firms receive fewer and less valuable government contracts, face more contract cancellations, and experience significant reductions in sales growth and employee growth. Despite widespread belief, successful bid protesters do not delay government procurement because of lengthy dispute resolutions. Overall, we provide the first analysis of corporate interactions with the United States government bid protest system.

我们研究了一家公司成功抗议政府机构的行为或采购合同条款与该公司未来同政府开展的业务量之间的关系。我们发现，公司获得的政府合同越来越少，价值越来越低，面临更多的合同取消、销售额增量和员工增量大幅下降。尽管人们普遍认为，成功的投标抗议者不会因为冗长的争议解决而推迟政府采购。总的来说，我们首次分析了企业与美国政府投标抗议系统的互动。

推荐文章2

● 题目：Auditing with a Chance of Whistleblowing

有机会举报的审计

● 原文链接：https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2024.04808

● 作者：Lin Nan, Chao Tang, Minlei Ye 

● 发布时间：2025-02-04

● 摘要：

This paper investigates the impact of promoting whistleblowing on audit quality and the efficiency of detecting misstatements. On the one hand, whistleblowing alerts the enforcer to the possibility of a misstatement and intensifies the regulatory effort, thereby incentivizing the auditor to improve audit quality. On the other hand, promoting whistleblowing reduces the enforcer’s investigative effort when there is no whistleblowing allegation, which in turn dampens the auditor’s incentive to enhance audit quality. We demonstrate that, under certain conditions, encouraging more whistleblowing can impair audit quality and reduce detection efficiency. We also examine the socially optimal whistleblowing program, and our analysis implies that the optimal whistleblowing intensity is increasing in investment cost and the quality of the whistleblower’s information.

本文研究了鼓励举报对审计质量和发现错报效率的影响。一方面，举报提醒执法者错报的可能性并加强监管力度，从而激励审计师提高审计质量。另一方面，在没有举报指控的情况下，鼓励举报会减少执法者的调查力度，这反过来又削弱了审计师提高审计质量的动力。我们表明，在某些条件下，鼓励增加举报会损害审计质量并降低检测效率。我们还研究了社会最优的举报计划。我们的分析表明，最优举报强度随着投资成本和举报人信息质量的提高而增加。

推荐文章3

● 题目：Combining Ad Targeting Techniques: Evidence from a Field Experiment in the Auto Industry

结合广告定位技术：来自汽车行业实地实验的证据

● 原文链接：https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2023.02310

● 作者：Albert Valenti, Chadwick J. Miller, Catherine E. Tucker 

● 发布时间：2025-02-05

● 摘要：

Retargeted advertising that tries to entice potential customers back to a website is widely used by advertisers and has often replaced more traditional forms of targeting, such as contextual targeting that tries to match ads to website content. However, existing research has not investigated the extent to which these different targeting techniques compete with or complement each other. To investigate this, we conduct a large-scale field experiment with an automobile manufacturer to investigate how retargeting meshes with more traditional techniques of contextual targeting online and in turn how that should affect ad content. We investigate this using three different measures of online advertising effectiveness: website visits, engagement, and soft conversions. We find that combining contextual targeting and retargeting is more effective for all three measures. However, to unleash this effectiveness, marketers have to pay attention to the ad content in their retargeted ads. We find that when combining retargeted advertising with contextual targeting, ads that prompt users to customize an offering are the most effective. Last, we provide empirical evidence for understanding the underlying mechanism associated with our findings and replicate those findings with a laboratory experiment.

试图吸引潜在客户返回网站的重定向广告被广告商广泛使用，并且经常取代更传统的定位形式，例如试图使广告与网站内容相匹配的上下文定位方法。但是，现有研究尚未调查这些不同的定位技术在多大程度上相互竞争或互补。为了调查这一点，我们与一家汽车制造商进行了一项大规模的实地实验，以调查重定向如何与更传统的在线上下文定位技术相结合，以及这又将如何影响广告内容。我们使用三种不同的在线广告效果指标来调查这一点：网站访问量、参与度和软转化。我们发现，结合上下文定位和重定向对所有这三种指标都更有效。但是，要发挥这种有效性，营销人员必须注意其重定向广告中的广告内容。我们发现，当将重定向广告与上下文定位相结合时，促使用户定制产品的广告是最有效的。最后，我们提供了实证证据来理解与我们的发现相关的潜在机制，并通过实验室实验复现了这些发现。

推荐文章4

● 题目：Speed Matters: Limited Attention and Supply Chain Information Diffusion

速度至关重要：有限的注意力和供应链信息扩散

● 原文链接：https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2023.00291

● 作者：Ling Cen, Michael Hertzel, Christoph Schiller  

● 发布时间：2025-02-06

● 摘要：

We develop a measure of the speed of firm-level information diffusion, study how it is affected by limited attention, and examine its effect on real corporate decisions. Using local flu epidemics as exogenous attention shocks, we show that inattention from dual-covering analysts and cross-holding institutions reduces the speed of information diffusion from customer to supplier stock prices. We find that the speed of information diffusion along the supply chain affects the price feedback effect for corporate investment decisions and facilitates coordination between customers and suppliers. Our findings demonstrate that coattention from key market participants affects information efficiency and generates real economic outcomes.

我们开发了一种衡量企业层面信息传播速度的方法，研究有限注意力如何影响信息传播速度，并检验其对实际企业决策的影响。以当地流感疫情作为外生注意力冲击，我们表明双重覆盖分析师和交叉持股机构的疏忽会降低信息从客户到供应商股价的传播速度。我们发现，供应链上的信息传播速度会影响企业投资决策的价格反馈效应，并促进客户和供应商之间的协调。我们的研究结果表明，关键市场参与者的共同关注会影响信息效率并产生实际的经济成果。

推荐文章5

● 题目：Antisocial Responses to the “Coal to Gas” Regulation: An Unintended Consequence of a Residential Energy Policy 

对“煤改气”法规的反社会反应：住宅能源政策的意外结果

● 原文链接 ：https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2023.01459

● 作者：Jing Cao, Tracy Xiao Liu, Rong Ma, Ang Sun 

● 发布时间：2025-02-11

● 摘要：

Policies geared toward environmental and economic improvement could unexpectedly lead to negative consequences in other dimensions. Such cases raise a red flag to economists and policymakers who aim to deliver comprehensive and sensible policy evaluations. This article investigates antisocial behaviors in response to the Clean Winter Heating Policy (CWHP), which seeks to improve outdoor air quality. Our results show that participating villagers are more likely to violate laws to burn agricultural waste and exhibit lower prosociality in incentivized dictator games and public goods games. We further explore treatment heterogeneities and find that two channels are likely to play a part. First, the CWHP was perceived as a negative income shock. Therefore, the villagers would want to reduce their expenditure on straw disposal and behave less generously in the incentivized games. Second, the CWHP could trigger discontent and directly affect social preference. Additional evidence suggests that the antisocial (less prosocial) responses could have been avoided by granting larger upfront subsidies.

旨在改善环境和经济的政策可能会意外地导致其他方面的负面后果。这种情况给那些旨在提供全面和合理的政策评估的经济学家和政策制定者敲响了警钟。本文研究了针对旨在改善室外空气质量的清洁冬季供暖政策 (CWHP) 的反社会行为。我们的结果表明，参与的村民更有可能违法焚烧农业废弃物，并且在激励独裁者博弈和公共物品博弈中表现出较低的亲社会性。我们进一步探讨了处理异质性，发现两个渠道可能发挥作用。首先，CWHP 被视为负面收入冲击。因此，村民们会希望减少他们在秸秆处理方面的支出，并在激励博弈中表现得不那么慷慨。其次，CWHP 可能引发不满并直接影响社会偏好。其他证据表明，通过提供更大的前期补贴可以避免反社会（亲社会性较低）反应。

推荐文章6

● 题目：Long Lags and Large Returns: Experimental Evidence from Advertising to Businesses

长期滞后和高回报：从广告到企业的实验证据

● 原文链接 ：https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2023.02661

● 作者：Michael Thomas, Marcel Goic, Kirthi Kalyanam 

● 发布时间：2025-02-12

● 摘要：

Using a multiyear experiment, we show that advertising to businesses can generate very different responses than has been observed for consumers. First, we estimate larger advertising returns than typically found for consumers: a return on ad spend of 12.0 (95% CI: 4.8–24.5). Second, we estimate longer lags between ad delivery and purchase: 1–5 months for first-time purchases and 5–12 months or longer for repeat purchases. Third, we find that existing business customers are responsible for most of the revenue lift from advertising, though this appears to be driven by existing business customers purchasing new parts. Additionally, our results demonstrate that geography-based switchback experiments that randomize the time between treatments can provide an effective means of estimating lagged effects. For this study we randomized the delivery of digital display ads for electronic components offered by a semiconductor manufacturer; nearly all electronic products require such components.

通过多年的实验，我们表明，向企业投放广告所产生的反应与消费者的反应截然不同。首先，我们估计广告回报率高于消费者通常获得的回报率：广告支出回报率为 12.0（95% 置信区间：4.8–24.5）。其次，我们估计广告投放和购买之间的滞后时间更长：首次购买为 1-5 个月，重复购买为 5-12 个月或更长时间。第三，我们发现现有企业客户是广告收入增长的主要贡献者，尽管这似乎是由现有企业客户购买新产品所推动的。此外，我们的结果表明，基于地理位置的切换实验可以随机化处理之间的时间，从而提供一种估计滞后效应的有效方法。在这项研究中，我们随机化了半导体制造商提供的电子元件的数字展示广告投放；几乎所有电子产品都需要这样的元件。

推荐文章7

● 题目：Fundamental Pricing of Utility Tokens

实用代币的基本定价

● 原文链接 ：https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2023.00566

● 作者：Julien Prat, Vincent Danos, Stefania Marcassa

● 发布时间：2025-02-12

● 摘要：

We propose a framework for the fundamental valuation of utility tokens. We introduce a requirement that is reminiscent of the cash-in-advance constraint, stipulating that services have to be accessed immediately. Our model endogenizes the velocity of token circulation, yielding a microfounded pricing formula that we calibrate using Ethereum’s adoption data. The equilibrium price path goes through two successive phases: initially, a portion of the tokens are held for purely speculative motives, and later on, all tokens are held with the intention of being used.

我们提出了一个实用代币基本估值框架。我们引入了一项类似于预付现金约束的要求，规定必须立即访问服务。我们的模型内生了代币流通速度，产生了一个微观定价公式。我们使用以太坊的采用数据对其进行了校准。均衡价格路径经历了两个连续的阶段：最初，部分代币纯粹出于投机动机而持有，后来，所有代币都是为了使用而持有。

推荐文章8

● 题目：A Structural Model of a Firm’s Operating Cash Flow with Applications

企业经营现金流结构模型及其应用

● 原文链接 ：https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2021.03790

● 作者：Kashish Arora, Vishal Gaur 

● 发布时间：2025-02-12

● 摘要：

Effective management of a firm’s operating cash flow is essential for supporting growth, servicing debt, and maintaining overall financial health. Mismanagement of cash flows can result in severe liquidity challenges and even business failure. However, managing operating cash flow is complex because of its intricate, endogenous relationships with operational variables, like sales, operating costs, inventory, payables, and the impact of exogenous macroeconomic factors on a firm. In this paper, we present a structural model of operating cash flow that untangles this endogeneity, allows us to estimate causal relationships among these variables, and provides a valuable tool for evaluating cash flow management policies. Applying our model to quarterly financial data from S&P’s Compustat database spanning from 1990 to 2020 along with macroeconomic indicators, we provide empirical evidence of the endogenous nature of cash flow with other operational variables. We then showcase the practical value of our model by (i) identifying the characteristics of structural shocks and the new equilibria they induce within the system; (ii) offering a tool for evaluating alternative managerial actions or policy decisions to counteract these shocks; (iii) predicting the impacts of macroeconomic events, such as global recessions and fluctuations in economic sentiment, on firm performance; and (iv) demonstrating superior forecasting performance compared with traditional univariate models. In summary, our structural model of operating cash flow enhances our understanding of its dynamics, enabling better-informed decision making and more effective cash flow management in firms.

有效管理公司的经营现金流对于支持增长、偿还债务和维持整体财务健康至关重要。现金流管理不善会导致严重的流动性挑战，甚至导致企业倒闭。然而，管理经营现金流很复杂，因为它与销售、运营成本、库存、应付款等运营变量以及外生宏观经济因素对公司的影响有着错综复杂的内生关系。在本文中，我们提出了一个经营现金流的结构模型，该模型解开了这种内生性，使我们能够估计这些变量之间的因果关系，并提供了一个评估现金流管理政策的宝贵工具。将我们的模型应用于标准普尔 Compustat 数据库 1990 年至 2020 年的季度财务数据以及宏观经济指标，我们提供了现金流与其他运营变量内生性质的实证证据。然后，我们通过 (i) 识别结构性冲击的特征及其在系统内引起的新均衡来展示我们模型的实际价值；(ii) 提供一种工具来评估替代管理行动或政策决策以抵消这些冲击；(iii) 预测宏观经济事件（如全球经济衰退和经济情绪波动）对公司业绩的影响；(iv) 与传统的单变量模型相比，具有更出色的预测性能。总之，我们的经营现金流结构模型增强了我们对其动态的理解，使公司能够做出更明智的决策并更有效地管理现金流。

推荐文章9

● 题目：The Effect of On-the-Job Experience on Base-Rate Neglect: Evidence from Medical Professionals

工作经验对基本忽视率的影响：来自医疗专业人员的证据

● 原文链接 ：https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2024.05461

● 作者：Felipe A. Araujo, Christopher F. Chabris, Michelle N. Meyer 

● 发布时间：2025-02-14

● 摘要：

We study the effect of on-the-job experience on base-rate neglect, which is a common bias in assessing conditional probabilities. We do so by carrying out experiments with medical professionals, who are routinely exposed to conditional-probability problems in the form of diagnostic tests, and nonmedical professionals, who are not. As such, medical workers with more years of experience will have had more exposure to base-rate type problems than nonmedical workers with similar years of experience. We estimate the effect of on-the-job experience by comparing the answers of more or less experienced professionals in both the medical and nonmedical domains. Although the incidence of the bias is high for both groups and all levels of experience, we find that more experienced medical workers (a) have lower rates of perfect base-rate neglect (i.e., completely ignoring the base rates), (b) provide more accurate posterior estimates, and (c) adjust their estimates more in response to changes in the base rates. We observe no such difference for nonmedical workers. We conduct a number of robustness checks and consider possible mechanisms, such as education, job or survey attrition, selectivity into medical professions, and experience with false positives. Our results suggests that on-the-job experience mitigates, but does not eliminate, base-rate neglect.

我们研究了工作经验对基本比率谬误的影响，基本比率谬误是评估条件概率时常见的偏差。我们通过对经常以诊断测试的形式接触条件概率问题的医疗专业人员和非医疗专业人员进行实验来研究。因此，经验更丰富的医疗工作者比经验类似的非医疗工作者接触到的基本比率问题更多。我们通过比较医疗和非医疗领域经验较多或较少的专业人员的答案来估计工作经验的影响。虽然这种偏见在这两个群体和所有经验水平中都很高，但我们发现经验更丰富的医疗工作者 (a) 完全基本比率谬误更低（即完全忽略基本比率），(b) 提供更准确的后验估计，以及 (c) 更多地根据基本比率的变化调整估计。我们在非医疗工作者中没有观察到这种差异。我们进行了大量稳健性检验，并考虑了可能的机制，例如教育、工作或调查流失、进入医疗行业的选择性以及假阳性经验。我们的结果表明，在职经验可以减轻但不能消除基本比率谬误。

推荐文章10

● 题目：Platform Competition and Interoperability: The Net Fee Model

平台竞争与互操作性：净费用模型

● 原文链接 ：https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2023.02810

● 作者：Mehmet Ekmekci, Alexander White, Lingxuan Wu

● 发布时间：2025-02-19

● 摘要：

Is more competition the key to mitigating dominance by large tech platforms? Could regulation of such markets be a better alternative? We study the effects of competition and interoperability regulation in platform markets. To do so, we propose an approach of competition in net fees, which is well-suited to situations in which users pay additional charges, after joining, for on-platform interactions. Compared with existing approaches, the net fee model expands the tractable scope to allow variable total demand, platform asymmetry, and merger analysis. Regarding competition, we find that adding more platforms to the market may lead to the emergence of a dominant firm. In contrast, we find that interoperability can play a key role in reducing market dominance and lowering prices. Broadly speaking, our results favor policy interventions that assure the formidability of the competition that dominant platforms face.

加强竞争是减轻大型科技平台主导地位的关键吗？监管此类市场会是更好的选择吗？我们研究了平台市场中竞争和互操作性监管的影响。为此，我们提出了一种净费用竞争方法，该方法非常适合用户加入后为平台内互动支付额外费用的情况。与现有方法相比，净费用模型扩大了可处理范围，允许可变总需求、平台不对称和合并分析。关于竞争，我们发现向市场增加更多平台可能会导致一家主导企业的出现。相反，我们发现互操作性可以在减少市场主导地位和降低价格方面发挥关键作用。从广义上讲，我们的研究结果有利于政策干预，以确保主导平台面临的强大竞争。

推荐文章11

● 题目：Economics of Social Media Fake Accounts

社交媒体虚假账户的经济学

● 原文链接 ：https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2022.02616

● 作者：Zihong Huang, De Liu

● 发布时间：2025-02-19

● 摘要：

Amid the rise of the influencer economy, fake social media accounts have become prevalent on many social media platforms. Yet the problem of fake accounts is still poorly understood, and so is the effectiveness of coping strategies. This research models the ecosystem of fake accounts in an influencer economy and obtains insights on fake account purchasing behaviors, the impact of antifake efforts, and the roles of various contextual factors. We show that as the antifake effort increases, the equilibrium may transition from a “pooling” equilibrium, where a low-quality influencer buys fake accounts to mimic a high-quality one, to a “costly separating” equilibrium, where a high-quality influencer may buy fake accounts to prevent mimicry from a low-quality influencer, and to a “naturally separating” equilibrium where low- and high-quality influencers are separated without buying fake accounts. We find that increasing antifake efforts and increasing social media literacy may sometimes result in more fake accounts. A purely profit-driven platform always prefers a pooling equilibrium with zero antifake effort. As a platform puts more weight on consumer welfare, it may exert a positive effort to induce a separating equilibrium, but the platform’s preferred antifake effort tends to be lower than that of consumers. We also find that the platform sometimes prefers a lower social media literacy and a lower fake account base price, whereas consumers prefer the opposite. In contrast, improving the antifake technology level can benefit both the platform and consumers. Our main insights are applicable to scenarios with more influencer types and repeated interactions.

随着网红经济的兴起，虚假社交媒体账号在许多社交媒体平台上盛行。然而，人们对虚假账号问题以及应对策略的有效性仍然了解甚少。本研究模拟了网红经济中的虚假账号生态系统，并获得了有关虚假账号购买行为、反造假努力的影响以及各种背景因素的作用的见解。我们表明，随着反造假努力的增加，均衡可能从“混同”均衡（低质量网红购买虚假账号来模仿高质量网红）转变为“高成本的分离”均衡（高质量网红可能会购买虚假账号以防止低质量网红模仿）以及“自然分离”均衡（低质量和高质量网红无需购买虚假账号即可分开）。我们发现，增加反造假努力和提高社交媒体素养有时可能会导致更多的虚假账号。纯粹以利润为导向的平台总是倾向于零反造假努力的共同均衡。当平台更加重视消费者福利时，它可能会付出积极的努力来诱导分离均衡，但平台偏好的反造假努力往往低于消费者。我们还发现，平台有时更喜欢较低的社交媒体素养和较低的虚假账户底价，而消费者则喜欢相反的情况。相反，提高反造假技术水平可以使平台和消费者都受益。我们的主要见解适用于影响者类型较多且重复互动的场景。

推荐文章12

● 题目：On Greedy-Like Policies in Online Matching with Reusable Network Resources and Decaying Rewards

关于含有可重复使用网络资源和衰减奖励的在线匹配中的贪婪策略

● 原文链接 ：https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2023.02588

● 作者：David Simchi-Levi, Zeyu Zheng, Feng Zhu  

● 发布时间：2025-02-21

● 摘要：

We build a unified modeling framework for classical online matching problems and emerging online matching problems with three additional practical features: reusable resources, network resources, and decaying rewards. For online matching problems in the unified framework, we provide a unified performance analysis tool for the greedy policy and its simple variants, which we refer to as greedy-like policies. We prove that greedy-like policies can achieve near-optimal performances for online matching problems in the unified framework, where the policy performance is measured by competitive ratios under adversarial environments. We then analyze several representative special classes of online matching problems, which incorporate additional realistic structural assumptions on top of the unified framework. Specifically, we consider online matching problems with each of the following three additional structures: (i) singleton resources with time-decaying rewards; (ii) network resources with accept/reject decisions; and (iii) network resources with interval-type bundles. We show that for these special classes of online matching problems, slight modifications to greedy-like policies can successfully utilize additional structural information to further enhance policy performances. This work may suggest that the greedy policy and its variants, despite its simplicity, can achieve reliable performances for a number of emerging online matching problems.

我们为经典在线匹配问题和新兴在线匹配问题构建了一个统一的建模框架，并增加了三个实用功能：可重用资源、网络资源和衰减奖励。对于统一框架中的在线匹配问题，我们为贪婪策略及其简单变体提供了统一的性能分析工具，我们将其称为类贪婪策略。我们证明类贪婪策略可以在统一框架中实现在线匹配问题的近乎最优的性能，其中策略性能通过对抗环境下的竞争比率来衡量。然后，我们分析了几种具有代表性的特殊类别的在线匹配问题，这些问题在统一框架的基础上加入了额外的现实结构假设。具体来说，我们考虑了具有以下三个附加结构的在线匹配问题：(i) 具有时间衰减奖励的单例资源；(ii) 具有接受/拒绝决策的网络资源；(iii) 具有区间型捆绑的网络资源。我们表明，对于这些特殊类别的在线匹配问题，对类贪婪策略进行轻微修改可以成功利用额外的结构信息来进一步提高策略性能。这项工作可能表明，贪婪策略及其变体尽管简单，但可以在许多新兴的在线匹配问题中实现可靠的性能。

推荐文章13

● 题目：Evaluating Mortgage Renegotiation Strategies: A Data-Driven Framework for Investors

评估抵押贷款重新谈判策略：面向投资者的数据驱动框架

● 原文链接 ：https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2022.02672

● 作者：Sanket Korgaonkar  

● 发布时间：2025-02-21

● 摘要：

This paper offers a novel framework to quantify the expected gains from renegotiating delinquent loans. The framework accounts for important trade-offs between concessions to borrowers, postdelinquency loan performance, and expected collateral values. The framework’s parameters are calibrated using data on renegotiated 30-year residential fixed-rate mortgages that went delinquent during the Great Recession. Our model-implied expected gains increase during the 2007–2009 period coinciding with an increase in the rate of loan renegotiation. Counterfactual analyses show that larger expected gains can be generated from employing principal forbearance and extensions of the term to maturity compared with principal write-downs and interest-rate reductions. On the other hand, principal write-downs can be a powerful tool when borrowers are deeply underwater. Our analyses illustrate how lenders or policymakers might deploy this framework when faced with another delinquency crisis.

本文提出了一个新颖的框架来量化重新谈判拖欠贷款的预期收益。该框架考虑了对借款人的让步、拖欠后贷款表现和预期抵押品价值之间的重要权衡。该框架的参数使用大衰退期间拖欠的重新谈判的 30 年期住宅固定利率抵押贷款的数据进行校准。我们的模型隐含的预期收益在 2007-2009 年期间增加，同时贷款重新谈判率也增加。反事实分析表明，与本金减记和利率降低相比，采用本金宽容和延长期限可以产生更大的预期收益。另一方面，当借款人深陷债务泥潭时，本金减记可能是一个有力的工具。我们的分析说明了贷方或政策制定者在面临另一场拖欠危机时如何部署这一框架。

推荐文章14

● 题目：Adaptive Pricing in Combinatorial Auctions

组合拍卖中的自适应定价

● 原文链接 ：https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2024.4993

● 作者：Sébastien Lahaie, Benjamin Lubin 

● 发布时间：2025-02-26

● 摘要：

We introduce the first adaptively priced iterative combinatorial auction design, which gradually extends price expressiveness as the rounds progress. This mechanism achieves both high efficiency and fast convergence across a wide range of valuation domains. We implement our auction design using polynomial prices, show how to detect when the current price structure is insufficient to clear the market, and show how to correctly expand the polynomial structure to guarantee progress. An experimental evaluation confirms that our auction is competitive with bundle-price auctions in domains where these excel, namely multiminded valuations, but also performs well in domains favorable to linear prices, such as valuations with pairwise synergy.

我们引入了首个自适应定价的迭代组合拍卖设计，该设计随着轮次的进展逐渐扩展价格表现力。该机制在广泛的估值领域实现了高效率和快速收敛。我们使用多项式价格实施拍卖设计，展示如何检测当前价格结构何时不足以清算市场，并展示如何正确扩展多项式结构以保证进展。实验评估证实，我们的拍卖在捆绑价格拍卖表现优异的领域（即多方估值）中具有竞争力，但在有利于线性价格的领域（例如具有成对协同作用的估值）也表现良好。

推荐文章15

● 题目：Blocking Block Formation: Evidence from Private Loan Contracts

阻止区块形成：来自私人贷款合同的证据

● 原文链接 ：https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2023.04224

● 作者：Brian Akins, David De Angelis, Rustam Zufarov

● 发布时间：2025-02-26

● 摘要：

Does the structure of the borrower’s equity ownership matter in debt contracting? This paper addresses this question by examining change in control clauses. These clauses are pervasive in loan contracts, yet their terms are not boilerplate. Examining 14,940 contracts, we document significant heterogeneity in the use and size of ownership caps, which limit large equity block formation. Overall, our evidence indicates that the way equity capital is distributed matters to lenders. Lenders set lower caps to mitigate risks arising from power contests among shareholders, formation of a new (coordinating) block, potentially resulting in activism, and hostile takeover threats via toehold strategies. We confirm some of these effects using two quasi-natural experiments. Caps below 50% are associated with a drop in firm value but not in the cost of debt, consistent with exacerbated firm-manager agency costs. Finally, two findings shed light on ways creditors may influence corporate governance: the largest block size increases when these minority block restrictions expire, and the likelihood of withdrawing an announced buyback increases during the life of these loans.

借款人的股权结构对债务合同有影响吗？本文通过研究控制权变更条款来解决这个问题。这些条款在贷款合同中随处可见，但其条款并非千篇一律。通过研究 14,940 份合同，我们记录了所有权上限的使用和规模存在显著差异，这些上限限制了大额股权集团的形成。总体而言，我们的证据表明，股权资本的分配方式对贷方很重要。贷方设定较低的上限是为了减轻股东之间的权力竞争、新（协调）集团的形成（可能导致激进主义）以及通过立足点策略进行的恶意收购威胁所带来的风险。我们使用两个准自然实验证实了其中一些影响。低于 50% 的上限与公司价值下降有关，但不与债务成本下降有关，这与公司经理代理成本加剧相一致。最后，两项发现揭示了债权人可能影响公司治理的方式：当这些少数股权限制到期时，最大股权规模会增加，而在这些贷款期限内撤回宣布的回购的可能性会增加。