TED 演讲 How we can control the coronavirus pandemic? 我们如何控制新冠病毒的传播 ?

How we can control the coronavirus pandemic?
我们如何控制新冠病毒的传播 ?


Containment is this idea that you can focus your effort on control very much on the cases and their contracts. So you’re causing disruption to the wider population,you have a case that comes in , you isolate them,you work out who they’ve come into contract with,who’s potentially those opportunities for exposure, and then you can follow up those people,maybe quarantine them, to make sure that no further tranmission happens.So it’s a very focused, targeted method,and for SARS, it worked remarkable well. But i think for this fectious,because some cases are going to be miss, or undetected,you’ve reallly got to be capturing a large chunk of people at risk,if a few slip through the net,potentionally, you’re going to get an outbreak.

对疫情的控制是集中精力控制住确诊的病例和他们有接触的人,这样就不会引起人群大规模的混乱,一发现确诊病例,就将他们进行隔离,找出与他们有过接触的人,存在被感染可能性的人,然后继续跟进这些人,或者将他们进行隔离,确保疫情不会进一步的蔓延。所以这是一种针对性很强的方法,这种方法对控制非典来说非常有效。但是对于这次的感染,因为有些病例不会被发现和检测到。就得注意一大群 存在被感染风险的人,如果存在漏网之鱼,那么就会面临疫情爆发的潜在风险。

Part 2 If containment isn’t enough, what comes next?

In that respect, it would be about massive changes in our social interactions.And so that would require, of the opportunities that could spread the virus,so thes kind of close contacts,everybody in the peopulation, on avergae,will be needing to reduce thosse interactions,potentionally by 2/3 to bring it under control. That might be through working fron home, from changing lifestyle, and king of where you go in crowded places and dinners. And of course, thes measures, things like chool closures and other things that just attempt to reduce the social mixing of a population.

那样的话,我们的社交方式需要进行很大的改变.那包括,减少所有可能导致病毒传播的机会,像是近距离地接触,平均而言,就每个人,就得减少大约2/3这种近接触的机会,才能有效控制疫情的传播。可以通过在家办公,改变生活方式,不去拥挤的场所和餐厅来实现。当然,像是关闭学校 和其他的措施,只能做到尽量避免人群密集接触。

Part 3 What are the risks that we need peolpe to think about ?

It‘s not whose hand you shake,it’s whose hand that person goes on to shake.And i think we need to think about these second-degree steps that you might think you have low risk and you are in a younger group,but you are often going to be a very short step away from someone who is going to get hit very hard by this. And i think we really need to be socially minded and think this could be quite dramatic in term of change of behavior,but it need to reduce the impact that we are potentionally faciing.


Part 4 How far aparts should people stay from each other?

I think it’s hard to pin down exactly,but i think one thing to bear in mind is that there’s not so much evidence that this is a kind of zerospl and it goes really far,it’s reasonably short distances. I don’t think it’s the case that you’re sitting a few meters away from someone and the virus is somehow going to get accross.It’s in closer interactions and it’s why we’re seeing so many tranmission events occur in things like meals and really tight-kint grouds.Because if you imagine,that’s where you can get a virus out and onto surfaces onto hand and onto face, and it’s really situations like that we’ve got to think more about.


Part5 What kind of protective measures should countries put in place?

I think that’s what people are trying to piece together. First in terms of what works.It only really in the last sort of few weeks we’ve got senxe taht this thing can be controllable with this extent of interventions,but of course, not all countries can do what China have done,some of thess measures incur a huge social encomic ,psychologicial burden on populations.And of course,ther’s time limit.In China,they’ve had them in for six weeks,it’s tough to maintain that,so we need to think of thes tradeoffs actually, of all the thins we can ask peolpe to do, what’s going to have the most impact on actually reducing the burden.


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