We humans crave a perfectly ordered world, though the chances of something going as intended are fairly rare. When there’s more than one human being involved in the equation, the predictability goes for a further toss.
我们人类渴望一个完美有序的世界，尽管按计划行事的机会很少。 当方程中涉及的人员超过一个时，可预测性就会进一步恶化。
What do we do when things do not turn out as intended? Instead of being curious and trying to learn from the situation, our mind assumes the worst possibility. Depending on how we see the event unfold, we derive an interpretation and create stories in our minds that conform to our beliefs.
如果事情没有达到预期的结果，我们该怎么办？ 我们的思维并非是好奇和尝试从情况中学习，而是承担了最坏的可能性。 根据我们如何看待事件的发展，我们进行解释并根据自己的信念在脑海中创造故事。
As a species, we are also very unique in associating two completely disconnected stories and finding patterns in events that do not exist. Our tendency to interpret every event as it relates to us creates a distorted version of reality. It makes us assume negative intent when things do not work out, even though the outcome may be completely unrelated to us.
作为一个物种，我们在关联两个完全脱节的故事并在不存在的事件中寻找模式方面也非常独特。 我们倾向于解释与我们相关的每个事件的趋势造成了现实的扭曲版本。 即使结果可能与我们完全无关，当事情无法解决时，它也会使我们承担消极意图。
Your boss canceling your one-on-one meeting could be interpreted as their evil intent to prevent you from growing. A more rational explanation could be that they got called into an urgent meeting at the last minute. Another co-worker refusing to help could be thought of as their villainous attitude to avoid knowledge sharing. Another possible explanation could be that they are too busy at the moment to help out.
您的老板取消您的一对一会议可以解释为他们阻止您成长的邪恶意图。 一个更合理的解释可能是他们在最后一刻被召集为紧急会议。 另一个拒绝帮助的同事可以被认为是他们避免知识共享的邪恶态度。 另一个可能的解释可能是他们现在太忙而无法提供帮助。
The ability to look beyond our personal narrative, imagine the situation from another person’s perspective, and remove ourselves from taking on a central position in every act to adopt a more neutral tone requires utilising Hanlon’s razor as a mental model while evaluating such circumstances.
超越我们个人叙事的视线，从他人的角度想象情况，使自己在采取更中立的语调的每一个行为中都处于中心地位的能力，需要在评估这种情况时利用汉隆的剃刀作为心理模型。
The principle of Hanlon’s razor was coined by Robert J. Hanlon. It states:
汉隆剃须刀的原理是由罗伯特·汉隆(Robert J. Hanlon)提出的。 它指出：
“Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.”
“绝不将恶意归咎于恶意。”
Over time, I have developed my own version of Hanlon’s razor that I find more relevant to my work and life:
随着时间的流逝，我开发了自己的汉隆剃须刀版本，发现它与我的工作和生活更加相关：
“Never attribute to bad intentions that which is adequately explained by ignorance, incompetence, negligence, misunderstanding, laziness, or other probable causes.”
“绝不归因于无意，无能，过失，误会，懒惰或其他可能原因的不良意图。”
Applying Hanlon’s razor as a mental model can enable us to communicate well and build better relationships by showing an intent to understand another person and their actions, as opposed to living with our assumptions.
将Hanlon的剃刀用作一种心理模型，可以使我们表现出理解他人和他们的行为的意图，从而与他们进行假设相违背，从而与他们进行良好的沟通并建立更好的关系。
如果不使用汉隆剃须刀会发生什么 (What Happens if We Do Not Apply Hanlon’s Razor)
The underlying assumption that the other person is acting out of bad intention can shut down all possible communication. The negativity trap can prevent us from reaching out to the other person. It can make us distance ourselves from others, avoid communication and collaboration, and ignore opportunities that might benefit us.
另一个人出于恶意而做出的基本假设可以关闭所有可能的通信。 负面陷阱可以阻止我们与他人接触。 它可以使我们与他人保持距离，避免沟通和协作，并忽略可能有益于我们的机会。
Human beings are uniquely designed to carry the emotional burden of a negative experience in their minds much longer than a positive outcome. This mindset can also lead to overthinking, which is detrimental to our health and overall well-being.
人类具有独特的设计，能够将负面体验的情感负担带入头脑中，而不是积极结果。 这种心态也可能导致思维过度，这不利于我们的健康和整体福祉。
Without applying Hanlon’s razor from our toolkit at the right moments, we may end up wasting our time and energy by focusing on the wrong things.
如果没有在正确的时机使用工具包中的Hanlon剃刀，我们可能会因为专注于错误的事情而浪费了时间和精力。
Hanlon’s razor enables the mindset shift from acting as the persecutor in the drama triangle by blaming others for the wrongdoing to taking a moment, stepping back, and thinking about other possibilities.
汉隆的剃须刀使人们的思维方式从扮演戏剧三角区的迫害者转变为指责他人的不法行为，花了点时间，退后一步，并思考其他可能性。
与Hanlon的Razor对抗认知偏见 (Combating Cognitive Biases With Hanlon’s Razor)
Our cognitive biases dictate how we perceive the world around us, and how we act, make decisions, and apply judgements.
我们的认知偏见决定了我们如何感知周围的世界，以及我们如何行动，做出决定和运用判断。
By living with subjective reality based on how we see things from our perspective, we may provide illogical arguments, make inaccurate judgements, and take irrational decisions.
通过基于我们从视角看待事物的主观现实生活，我们可能会提供不合逻辑的论据，做出不正确的判断并做出不合理的决定。
Hanlon’s razor is a powerful tool for overcoming some of these biases.
Hanlon的剃须刀是克服这些偏见的有力工具。
基本归因错误又称对应偏差 (Fundamental attribution error aka correspondence bias)
Fundamental attribution error is the tendency to overemphasise personality and underestimate situational factors when explaining other people’s behaviour. It’s also described as “what people do reflects who they are.”
基本归因错误是在解释他人的行为时过分强调人格并低估情境因素的趋势。 它也被描述为“人们的行为反映了他们是谁。”
Because we judge others by their actions, this bias can manifest itself when other’s actions do not fall in the path of our expectations, are not in line with the desired results, or do not follow our sense of right or wrong.
因为我们通过他人的行为来判断他人，所以当他人的行为不符合我们的期望，与预期结果不符或不遵循我们的是非判断时，这种偏见就会显现出来。
The natural tendency in such circumstances is to attribute their actions to their personality without taking into account other factors that may contribute to their behaviour.
在这种情况下，自然的趋势是将他们的行为归因于他们的性格，而不考虑可能会影响他们行为的其他因素。
You may be quick to judge your co-worker who doesn’t attend your party as being envious of your promotion without realising that they got held up with a personal emergency. You may think of your boss who does not invite you to an important meeting as insensitive and cold without knowing that the meeting demanded a restricted audience for other reasons.
您可能会很快判断未参加您的聚会的同事羡慕您的晋升，却没有意识到他们因个人紧急情况而受阻。 您可能认为您的老板不邀请您参加重要的会议是冷漠而冷漠的，却不知道会议由于其他原因而要求受限的听众。
Employing Hanlon’s razor during such moments can help us shift from a negative frame of mind to seeking positive or other probable causes that may contribute to this behaviour.
在这样的时刻使用汉隆剃须刀可以帮助我们从消极的心态转变为寻求可能有助于这种行为的积极或其他可能的原因。
确认偏差 (Confirmation bias)
Confirmation bias is the most profound bias in all human beings, in which we seek evidence that confirms our beliefs and refutes all data and arguments that contradict them.
确认偏见是所有人类中最严重的偏见，我们在其中寻求证据来证实我们的信念，并驳斥所有与之相反的数据和论据。
The desire to be right crushes the intent to find the objective truth. When confronted with information that challenges our personal narrative, we work hard to find ways to reject the evidence that contradicts our beliefs and we look for information that strengthens our point of view.
对正确的渴望粉碎了寻找客观真理的意图。 当面对挑战我们个人叙事的信息时，我们会努力寻找方法来拒绝与我们的信念相矛盾的证据，并且我们会寻找能够增强我们观点的信息。
If you think your boss is biased, you will look for evidence that will rationalise your point of view and discard any data that’s not compatible with the beliefs you hold.
如果您认为老板有偏见，您将寻找可以使您的观点合理化的证据，并丢弃所有与您的信念不符的数据。
Hanlon’s razor is a great principle that can be used to shave off this bias by making a conscious effort to look for other possibilities and expand your thinking.
汉隆剃须刀是一项伟大的原则，可以通过有意识地努力寻找其他可能性并扩大思维来消除这种偏见。
可用性偏差 (Availability bias)
Availability bias is a heuristic in which we apply mental shortcuts to relate an event to our past experiences, based on the information we can recall. We form opinions, evaluate options, and even base our decisions based on what comes to our minds from our latest experiences.
可用性偏差是一种启发式方法，在这种方法中，我们根据可以回忆的信息，应用思维捷径将事件与过去的经历相关联。 我们根据最新经验得出的想法形成意见，评估选择方案，甚至根据自己的决定做出决定。
Naturally, this bias makes us rely on information that’s readily available to us and seem to ignore other facts or data points that are either hard to remember or difficult to recall.
自然，这种偏见使我们依赖于我们容易获得的信息，并且似乎忽略了难以记住或难以回忆的其他事实或数据点。
During a performance review cycle, people tend to base their feedback on their most recent interactions by recollecting the data points that come readily to their minds. This feedback is biased towards the latest occurrences, as opposed to something someone did a while back.
在绩效评估周期中，人们倾向于通过收集容易想到的数据点，将反馈基于最新的互动。 该反馈偏向于最新发生的事件，而不是某人早前所做的事情。
The latest missed delivery deadline will carry far more weight than all the other successful deliveries done on time.
最新错过的交货期限将比所有其他按时完成的成功交货具有更大的分量。
Combating this bias at work is crucial to making the right decisions by not reacting to information based on its ease of recollection.
应对工作中的这种偏见对于不根据信息的易收集性对信息做出React，对于做出正确的决定至关重要。
By applying Hanlon’s razor, a negative mindset that can arise from availability bias can be probed further to adopt a better thinking practice.
通过使用Hanlon剃须刀，可以进一步探究由可用性偏差引起的消极心态，以便采用更好的思维习惯。
汉隆的剃刀在工作 (Hanlon’s Razor at Work)
Mental models provide us with a powerful framework to expand our thinking by simplifying complexity, helping us form new connections to shape our understanding and to seek new opportunities.
心理模型为我们提供了一个强大的框架，可通过简化复杂性来扩展我们的思维，帮助我们形成新的联系以塑造我们的理解并寻求新的机会。
Applying mental models at work can be extremely useful since they enable us to expand our circle of competence and make better decisions.
在工作中应用心理模型非常有用，因为它们使我们能够扩大自己的能力范围并做出更好的决策。
There are multiple situations at work that can lead to anger and frustration. If not handled well, they can be a source of stress, anxiety, and other related health issues. This is where mental models like Hanlon’s razor comes to our rescue.
工作中有多种情况会导致愤怒和沮丧。 如果处理不当，它们可能成为压力，焦虑和其他相关健康问题的来源。 这就是像Hanlon剃刀一样的心理模型来拯救我们的地方。
By applying Hanlon’s razor at work, we can catch ourselves in those moments of anger and frustration and question if our feelings are justified. When you suspect someone of wrongdoing, ask these powerful questions:
通过在工作中使用汉隆剃须刀，我们可以陷入愤怒和沮丧的时刻，并质疑我们的感情是否合理。 当您怀疑某人做错事时，请问以下有力问题：
- Why do I feel this way? 为什么我会有这种感觉？
- What data do I have to justify that the other person acted out of bad intentions? 我必须提供什么数据来证明对方出于恶意而采取了行动？
- Are there other instances where they acted this way? 还有其他情况下他们采取这种方式吗？
- Have I spoken to them about it? 我有跟他们谈过吗？
- What is the probability that I am incorrect? 我不正确的概率是多少？
- Could I be biased in the moment? 我现在可以有偏见吗？
- What other possible reasons could make them behave this way? 还有哪些其他可能的原因可能会使他们表现出这种行为？
“A bit of wisdom called Hanlon’s Razor advises us ‘Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.’ I would add a clumsier but more accurate corollary to this: ‘Never attribute to malice or stupidity that which can be explained by moderately rational individuals following incentives in a complex system of interactions.’ People behaving with no central coordination and acting in their own best interest can still create results that appear to some to be clear proof of conspiracy or a plague of ignorance.” — Douglas W Hubbard, Failure of Risk Management
“有一种叫做汉隆的剃刀的智慧建议我们'永远不要把恶意归咎于愚蠢。” 我要对此添加一个笨拙但更准确的推论：“永远不要归因于恶意或愚蠢，而这些动机可以由中度理性的个体遵循复杂的互动系统中的激励机制来解释。” 那些没有中央协调并为自己的最大利益而行事的人仍然可以创造出一些结果，这些结果似乎是阴谋或无知之灾的明确证据。” — Douglas W Hubbard，风险管理失败
When you are denied promotion, another colleague disagrees with your suggestion, a team member refuses to help, or another team does not complete their work on time, impacting your delivery timelines or project scope changes, you can go for the easy route: blame others and label them as difficult people.
当您被拒绝晋升，另一位同事不同意您的建议，一个团队成员拒绝提供帮助或另一个团队未能按时完成工作，影响您的交付时间表或项目范围变更时，您可以采用简单的方法：责怪其他人并将他们标记为困难的人。
But what if you applied Hanlon’s razor and asked these questions? You may save yourself from mental agony and rather approach the problem with the curiosity to understand and a desire to make things better.
但是，如果您使用Hanlon的剃须刀问了这些问题怎么办？ 您可能会摆脱精神上的痛苦，而会以好奇的态度去理解问题，并渴望使事情变得更好。
汉隆关系中的剃刀 (Hanlon’s Razor in Relationships)
People who can hurt the most are the ones we trust the most.
伤害最大的人是我们最信任的人。
When your friend ignores your calls and does not call back, your spouse steps in late for your birthday party, or your children refuse to cooperate, you may feel being wronged by your own people.
当您的朋友无视您的电话而没有回电，您的配偶为您的生日聚会迟到或您的孩子拒绝合作时，您可能会觉得自己被自己的人委屈了。
It may be tempting to assume that they do not have your best interests at heart, as their actions suggest it (fundamental attribution error), the data around you validates your hypothesis (confirmation bias), and this may not be the first time they behaved this way (availability bias).
可能会很想像一下，他们的行为暗示了他们根本没有最大的兴趣(根本归因错误)，周围的数据验证了您的假设(确认偏差)，而这可能并不是他们第一次这样做这种方式(可用性偏差)。
In these moments, applying Hanlon’s razor can enable you to shift from assuming bad intention to exploring other, alternative viewpoints. It may strengthen your relationship as you approach the other person with the desire to understand instead of blame.
在这些时刻，使用汉隆剃须刀可以使您从不良意图转变为探索其他替代观点。 当您接近渴望理解而不是自责的另一个人时，它可能会加强您的关系。
Opening your mind to seek other views shifts your perspective from a negative frame of mind to a positive one, from shutting down communication to actively engaging, and from blaming others to finding solutions together.
开放您的思维以寻求其他观点将使您的观点从消极的心态转变为积极的心态，从关闭沟通到积极参与，从责备他人到共同寻找解决方案。
如何决定何时应用Hanlon的剃刀 (How to Decide When to Apply Hanlon’s Razor)
Hanlon’s razor is similar to another mental model, Occam’s razor, which states “The simplest solution to a problem is usually the correct one.” Both are heuristics to shave off hypotheses and favour simplicity.
Hanlon的剃刀类似于另一种心理模型Occam的剃刀，它指出“解决问题的最简单方法通常是正确的方法。” 两者都是启发式的方法，可以消除假设并支持简单性。
These razors are not always applicable, and it’s important to understand their limitations before adopting them and making them a part of your thinking practice.
这些剃须刀并非总是适用，因此在采用它们并将它们纳入您的思维实践之前，了解它们的局限性很重要。
Hanlon’s razor, while useful, is not applicable when the person does have malicious intent. Though rare, some people do act with the desire to cause harm to others.
汉隆的剃须刀虽然有用，但当该人确实有恶意时就不适用。 尽管很少见，但有些人的确希望对他人造成伤害。
In the beginning, it’s indeed very difficult to separate something that seems bad but is purely situational from the one that’s acted upon with an intent to hurt, destroy, or cause damage.
刚开始时，确实很难将看上去不好但纯粹是情境性的东西与旨在伤害，破坏或造成损害的行为分开。
Being watchful requires carefully evaluating the situation by asking these questions:
注意需要通过询问以下问题来仔细评估情况：
- What’s the history of this person? Have they ever acted this way before? 这个人的历史是什么？ 他们曾经有过这样的举动吗？
- What could be their motive to cause you harm? 他们造成您伤害的动机是什么？
- What will be the cost of assuming negative intent and shutting them down, as opposed to making an attempt to understand the situation better? 与试图更好地了解情况相反，承担消极意图并将其关闭的成本是多少？
- What can possibly go wrong if you start with Hanlon’s razor and then change your perspective if you find evidence that states otherwise? 如果从汉隆剃须刀开始，然后如果发现证据表明情况相反，则改变看法，可能会出什么问题？
Hanlon’s razor is a very powerful mental model that can be applied in every situation where our first instinct is negative. Assuming bad intentions can prevent us from building better relationships, sharing our perspective, and realising opportunities. Considering ignorance, incompetence, negligence, misunderstanding, laziness, or other probable causes can enable us to learn, succeed, and grow.
汉隆剃须刀是一种非常强大的心理模型，可用于我们的第一本能为负面的所有情况。 假设不良意图会阻止我们建立更好的关系，分享我们的观点以及实现机会。 考虑到无知，无能，疏忽，误解，懒惰或其他可能的原因，可以使我们学习，成功和成长。
What do you think about adopting Hanlon’s razor as a thinking practice?
您如何看待采用汉隆剃须刀的思维方式？
翻译自: https://medium.com/better-programming/hanlons-razor-d43a2fc5f5b4
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